Final Predictions for the 96th Academy Award Nominations

On Tuesday, January 23, the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences will unveil their nominations for the 96th Annual Academy Awards at 8:30am ET/5:30am PT. The awards season was shaping up in a pretty straightforward manner until recent nominations from the Screen Actors Guild and the British Academy shook things up. Here, I take a deep dive into the top races and post my final predictions in each.

Click here for my recap of this year’s Oscar nominations

After the utterly disastrous 2022 Academy Awards, marked by Will Smith slapping Chris Rock, the embarassing Twitter-voted fan awards, and numerous cringe-inducing comedy bits, last year’s Academy Awards were a stunning return to form. The often-smug Jimmy Kimmel proved charming, witty, and succinct in his 3rd time hosting. The musical numbers were well-staged and memorable. The presenters were selected thoughtfully and were given less awkward shtick than usual. And, of course, brilliant and bizarre Everything Everywhere All at Once leapt its way into the history books becoming the 1st film ever to win 6 of the 8 top awards, the 3rd in history to win 3 of the 4 acting awards, the 2nd Best Picture winner to have all-Asian leads, and the 1st science fiction film to win Best Picture.

Not much is known about this year’s Oscar’s ceremony except that it will be hosted by late night host Jimmy Kimmel for the 4th time, produced by Raj Kapoor and Katy Mullan, and directed by BAFTA-winning and Emmy-nominated Hamish Hamilton (whose previous credits include multiple Super Bowl Halftime shows and Primetime Emmy Awards ceremonies). We also know when and where it will air — Sunday, March 10 on ABC at 7pm ET/4pm PT.

There are plenty of hints as to who will be nominated across the 23 Oscar categories this year. Some of those hints come from industry buzz, media coverage, and box office receipts. Some of the hints come from our knowledge of Academy’s past voting behavior (although, admittedly, this is becoming increasingly complex as the Academy has significantly enlarged and diversified its membership in recent years). But most of the hints come from the many, many awards-granting bodies that precede the Oscars each year (and create what feels like an interminable awards season).

Beginning in late 2022, dozens of regional and national critics groups named their picks for the best in film over the past year. In general, critics associations are relatively poor predictors of the Oscars, highlighting the discrepancy in taste between film critics and Academy voters. Curiously, the one exception is the Critics’ Choice Awards, which usually aligns much more closely with the Academy than with other critics’ organizations. The Oscar race does not typically truly start taking shape until we see the nominations of the Critics’ Choice Awards, the Golden Globes, the British Academy of Film and Television Arts Awards, and a trio of high profile guilds — the Screen Actors Guild, the Directors Guild, and the Producers Guild. At this point, we have heard at least something from each group.

Below, I briefly discuss each of the awards and how frequently their winners tend to converge with the Oscars.

1. The 81st Golden Globe Awards. A long-running institution, the Golden Globes are voted upon by members of the Hollywood Foreign Press Association, a small and somewhat mysterious group of journalists who cover Hollywood for foreign media outlets. They had always been known to host a great party and put on a fun telecast, but over the years started to be taken very seriously due to their ability to presage the Oscars. Then they experienced a major controversy about the rampant corruption and lack of diversity in their organization, which led to a huge backlash that ended up with them canceling the televised ceremony two years ago. They continued their bid for a comeback this year with an awkward, cringe-inducing ceremony on January 7th that featured big wins for Oppenheimer and Poor Things. In the last 25 years, the Golden Globes have converged with the Oscars on the winner of Best Picture 13 times, Best Director 14 times, Best Actor 16 times, Best Actress 21 times, Best Supporting Actor 18 times, and Best Supporting Actress 15 times. (Important note: At the Globes, separate awards for Picture, Actor, and Actress are given to dramatic and musical/comedy films at the Globes.) The full list of this year’s Golden Globe nominees and winners can be found here.
2. The 29th Annual Critics’ Choice Awards. This ceremony is run by the Broadcast Film Critics Association, which is the largest organization of film and television critics in the United States (with a current membership of around 250). They tend to have more nominations per category than the Oscars, inevitably resulting in substantial divergence between this ceremony and the Oscars. Nevertheless, in the last 25 years they have converged with the Oscars on the winner of Best Picture 16 times, Best Director 19 times, Best Actor 17 times, Best Actress 14 times, Best Supporting Actor 16 times, and Best Supporting Actress 17 times. This year’s ceremony was held on January 14 and Oppenheimer dominated with 8 wins. The full list of Critics’ Choice nominees and winners can be found here.
3. The 76th BAFTA Film Awards. The British equivalent to the Academy Awards, this organization has special importance because it has significant membership overlap with the Academy Awards. (In contrast, no Critics’ Choice or Globe voters are members of the Academy and only a small subgroup of SAG members are.) They have undergone major changes in the last couple of years to help increase the diversity of their nominees and these changes to voting make it unclear whether it remains as reliable predictor of the Oscars as it has been in the past. In the last 25 years, BAFTA has converged with the Oscars on the winner of Best Picture 11 times, Best Director 13 times, Best Actor 17 times, Best Actress 16 times, Best Supporting Actor 14 times, and Best Supporting Actress 17 times. The nominees were announced on January 18 and were dominated by Oppenheimer and Poor Things with 13 and 11 nominations, respectively. The ceremony is scheduled for February 18. The full list of BAFTA nominees can be found here.
4. The 30th Annual Screen Actors Guild Awards. This relatively young awards show is notable in that it is voted on by the nearly 120,000 members of SAG-AFTRA (the actors’ union), a small but influential subset of whom are also members of the Oscar-voting Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences. In the last 25 years, SAG have converged with the Oscars on the winner of Best Actor 19 times, Best Actress 18 times, Best Supporting Actor 16 times, and Best Supporting Actress 19 times. (Of note, the SAG Awards only award actors; the closest thing they have to a Best Picture award is Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture, which has converged with the Oscar for Best Picture 14 of the past 25 years.) The nominations were announced on January 10 and the ceremony will be held on February 24. The full list of SAG nominees can be found here.
5. The Directors Guild and Producers Guild Awards. The Directors Guild of America (DGA), which has a small membership overlap with the directing branch of the Academy, announced their nominations for Best Director on February 10 (nominees can be found here). In the last 25 years, the DGA and the Academy converged on the winner an impressive 21 times. The DGA winners will be announced on February 10. Likewise, the Producers Guild of America (PGA), which has a small membership overlap with the producers branch of the Academy, announced their nominations for Best Producer (the equivalent to Best Picture) on January 12 (nominees can be found here). In the last 25 years, the PGA and the Academy converged on the winner 17 times. The PGA winners will be announced on February 25. To understand the importance of the guild awards, it is important to remember that when it comes to the Oscars, the nominees are voted for by members of the corresponding Academy branch (e.g., members of the acting branch vote for the acting categories, members of the writing branch vote for the screenplay categories) whereas the winners are voted on by the whole Academy membership regardless of branch. Even though the Directors and Producers have far more members than their craft’s corresponding branches within the Academy, knowing what the broader group voted for in the guild-specific races provides some clues about what the subset of them who are Academy members will vote for. (Note: The Writers Guild of America Awards were delayed due to the recent strike and the nominations will not be unveiled until February 21 and the ceremony will not be held until April 14, thus making them a non-entity as an Oscar predictor this year.)

So why should you listen to me when it comes to Oscar predictions? Well, I have done pretty well in the past. Last year I correctly predicted 35 of the 45 nominees in the top 8 categories (Best Picture, Best Director, the 4 acting categories, and the 2 screenplay categories). At 78%, this marked a relatively weak showing for me (I typically predict closer to 85%), but a strong one nonetheless.

Below I cover what I consider the main 8 races (Best Picture, Best Director, the 4 acting categories, and the 2 screenplay categories). I provide a brief analysis of the race followed by my predictions about who the likely nominees are in order of likelihood, with those in bold being my final set of predicted nominees.

I’ll be back on Tuesday morning with my reactions to the nominations.

BEST PICTURE

Two years ago, the Best Picture race returned to having 10 nominees after a decade in which there were a variable number of slots determined by a relatively complex algorithm. In previous years when there was a fixed 10 slots, there were typically 7–8 sure things and then 2–3 slots that were wide open. This is a unique year where the 10 nominees seem locked. Although I would be surprised if any of the 10 miss the lineup, they can nevertheless be separated into 3 groups based on likelihood. There are 5 films that I simply cannot imagine missing a Best Picture nomination — Christopher Nolan’s blockbuster Manhattan Project drama Oppenheimer, Yorgos Lanthimos’s bizarre and beautiful science fiction comedy Poor Things, Martin Scorcese’s epic historical crime drama Killers of the Flower Moon, Alexander Payne’s old-fashioned coming-of-age dramedy The Holdovers, and Greta Gerwig’s smash-hit feminist comedy Barbie. All 5 films were huge hits with critics and audiences and consistently showed up where they were expected to during awards season so far. Then there is a pair of films that have performed a bit less consistently, but still feel like locks. Justine Triet’s French courtroom drama Anatomy of a Fall may have been nowhere to be found in the SAG nominations and underperformed at the Critics’ Choice Awards, but its wins at the Golden Globes and mighty showing in the BAFTA nominations make it clear that it has the support for a Best Picture nomination. Cord Jefferson’s satirical race comedy American Fiction may have underperformed at the BAFTAs, but its excellent showing at the Golden Globes, SAG Awards, and Critics’ Choice Awards should guarantee it a spot here. Then there are a trio of films that look like solid bets for the last 3 spots. Although its frontrunner status as fallen quickly, Bradley Cooper’s Leonard Bernstein biopic Maestro has likely received enough support throughout awards season to secure a spot here. Jonathan Glazer’s experimental Holocaust drama The Zone of Interest surged in recent weeks with surprisingly strong showings at the PGA and BAFTA nominations. It is peaking at the right time and shares a lot of qualities with international films the Academy has warmly embraced in recent years. Despite underperforming throughout awards season, Celine Song’s gorgeous character study Past Lives should have enough passionate support to make it in. If there are any alternative to this seemingly secure lineup of 10, my guess is that one of the films in this final group of 3 is bumped by one of the following 3 — Blitz Bazawule’s musical adaptation of The Color Purple, which seemed like a frontrunner but has faded markedly due to free-falling box office and some bad press about what went on behind the scenes; Ava DuVernay’s race drama Origin, which lacked a major studio backing but is garnering passionate grassroots support (think To Leslie’s Andrea Riseborough last year); or Emerald Fennell’s divisive black comedy Saltburn, which repelled many but has maintained a strong buzz throughout awards season.

1. Oppenheimer
2. Poor Things
3. Killers of the Flower Moon
4. The Holdovers
5. Barbie
6. Anatomy of a Fall
7. American Fiction
8. Maestro
9. The Zone of Interest
10. Past Lives
11. The Color Purple
12. Origin
13. Saltburn
14. May December
15. Spider-Man: Across the Spiderverse
16. Air
17. All of Us Strangeres
18. Nyad
19. The Iron Claw
20. The Boy and the Heron

BEST DIRECTOR

There are 3 directors that I suspect can’t miss here — Oppenheimer’s Christopher Nolan, Poor Things’s Yorgos Lanthimos, and Killers of the Flower Moon’s Martin Scorcese. Nolan is the clear frontrunner to win, due to his monumental directorial achievement this year and the fact that he is perceived to be overdue for never winning an Oscar despite a career that includes modern classics like Dunkirk, Inception, and The Dark Knight. Although Lanthimos and Scorcese were shockingly snubbed by BAFTA, they are remarkably beloved directors who have performed superbly in awards season thus far and helmed well-liked films that are undeniably impressive directorial achievements. Also snubbed at BAFTA after showing up virtually everywhere else was Greta Gerwig for Barbie. Some may view her film as too slight and too feminine to make it in here, but I have trouble imaginging that voters will overlook the monumental achievement of turning a toy into a critically revered, culture-shaking, record-shattering modern classic. I suspect that the 5th spot will be a nail-biting race between The Zone of Interest’s Jonathan Glazer, The Holdovers’s Alexander Payne, and Anatomy of a Fall’s Justine Triet. All 3 would seem like locks in a less competitive year but it seems unlikely that all will make it in this year. I give Glazer the slight edge because his film has the most unique and flashiest direction, whereas the other films are far more of an acting showcase.

1. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
2. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things
3. Martin Scorcese, Killers of the Flower Moon
4. Greta Gerwig, Barbie
5. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest
6. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers
7. Justine Treit, Anatomy of a Fall
8. Celine Song, Past Lives
9. Bradley Cooper, Maestro
10. Cord Jefferson, American Fiction
11. Blitz Bazawule, The Color Purple
12. Todd Haynes, May December
13. Emerald Fennell, Saltburn
14. Ava DuVernay, Origin
15. Hayao Miyazaki, The Boy and the Heron

BEST ACTRESS

From very early on in awards season this race seemed set to be a showdown between 2 brilliant performances in surefire Best Picture nominees — Emma Stone’s audaciously original work in Poor Things and Lily Gladstone’s haunting and stoic work in Killers of the Flower Moon. However, a 3rd frontrunner emerged in recent weeks with German actress Sandra Huller showing up virtually everywhere (except notably at the SAG Awards) for her complex, nuanced turn in Anatomy of a Fall. Rounding out the category is likely to be two actresses who made it into every single major Best Actress lineup so far this year — Carey Mulligan’s heartbreaking performance as Leonard Bernstein’s long-suffering wife in Maestro and Margot Robbie’s pitch-perfect and surprisingly emotionally hefty turn as the titular Barbie. This is the strongest Best Actress crop in years and the result is that a host of wonderful actresses who would have been locks in weaker years will have to sit this one out. That means that we likely will not see a 5th nomination for Nyad’s Annette Bening (despite getting in at SAG and the Globes) or a 1st nomination for The Color Purple’s Fantasia Barrino (despite getting in at the Globes and BAFTA) or Past Lives’s Greta Lee (despite getting in at the Globes and Critics’ Choice). (Oh, how I would love to see Greta Lee’s heart-wrenching, understated work get nominated, though!)

1. Emma Stone, Poor Things
2. Sandra Huller, Anatomy of a Fall
3. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon
4. Carey Mulligan, Maestro
5. Margot Robbie, Barbie
6. Greta Lee, Past Lives
7. Annette Bening, Past Lives
8. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple
9. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Origin
10. Natalie Portman, May December
11. Callee Spaeny, Priscilla
12. Helen Mirren, Golda

BEST ACTOR

If you had told me 4 weeks ago that we would likely be looking at a Best Actor race without Killers of the Flower Moon’s Leonardo DiCaprio, I would have told you that you were delusional. But that is in fact what it’s looking like. Despite anchoring one of this year’s biggest Oscar frontrunners and having 6 previous acting Oscar nominations and 1 win, his shocking omissions from the SAG and BAFTA nominations have knocked him out of the top 5. I still think Oscar voters may nominate him, but for now the top 5 are looking like Oppenheimer’s Cillian Murphy, which would mark the acclaimed Irish actor’s 1st nomination; The Holdovers’s Paul Giamatti, which would mark his 2nd nomination and go a long way for making up for his shocking snub for 2005’s Sideways; Maestro’s 9-time Oscar nominee Bradley Cooper, who also directed and co-wrote the passion project; American Fiction’s Jeffrey Wright, which would mark the Emmy- and Tony-winning actor’s 1st Oscar nomination; and Rustin’s Colman Domingo, which would mark the Emmy winners’ 1st Oscar nomination and make him (shockingly) only the 3rd openly LGBTQ performer in history to receive an Oscar nomination for playing an LGBTQ character. Up until last week, I thought DiCaprio would edge out Domingo, but when even BAFTA (a group that notoriously under-nominates non-white actors and films that premiere on streaming services) went for him, I became convinced. If anyone else were to upset it would be Saltburn’s Barry Keoghan (who showed up at the Globes and BAFTA) or The Iron Claw’s Zac Efron (who has showed up nowhere but is riding a wave of good box office and huge buzz for his performance).

1. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer
2. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers
3. Bradley Cooper, Maestro
4. Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction
5. Colman Domingo, Rustin
6. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon
7. Barry Keoghan, Saltburn
8. Zac Efron, The Iron Claw
9. Andrew Scott, All of Us Strangers
10. Teo Yoo, Past Lives
11. Joaquin Phoenix, Napoleon
12. Matt Damon, Air

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

The biggest lock in any acting category is certainly The Holdovers’s Da’Vine Joy Randolph. She is having arguably the most dominant awards season run for any actor since Mo’Nique did for Precious in this same category in 2009. There are 2 other solid bets to join her. One is Oppenheimer’s Emily Blunt, who has never been nominated for an Oscar despite having 4 BAFTA nominations, 4 SAG nominations, and 6 Golden Globe nominations prior to this year. The other is Danielle Brooks’s whose acclaimed turn in The Color Purple seems likely to be the only major nomination for the film. The other 2 spots are really up for grabs, making this the category with the biggest chance for an out-of-left-field surprise. Most pundits expect Nyad’s Jodie Foster to reap her 5th nomination following her nominations at the Globes, Critics’ Choice, and SAG. I can see this happening, but also can see her snubbed since the film under-performed throughout awards season. Penelope Cruz could likewise score her 5th nomination for Ferrari following her surprise SAG nomination, but I doubt voters will nominate the widely rejected film in a major category. Several pundits are now predicting Sandra Huller to be double nominated after the BAFTAs nominated her in lead for Anatomy of a Fall and in supporting for The Zone of Interest, but I’m not sold that she will have the support for a double nomination. Saltburn’s Rosamund Pike could get her 2nd nomination after showing up at the Globes and BAFTAs. Barbie’s America Ferrera could also get in for her iconic, expertly delivered feminist speech in the film. But I am going to go way out on a limb and predict that we see a 6th nomination for May December’s Julianne Moore. The film crashed and burned during awards season despite a remarkably strong showing with critics’ organizations and the Golden Globes, but I think her brilliant, haunting turn will resonate with Oscar voters.

1. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers
2. Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer
3. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple
4. Jodie Foster, Nyad
5. Julianne Moore, May December
6. Penelope Cruz, Ferrari
7. Sandra Huller, The Zone of Interest
8. Rosamund Pike, Saltburn
9. America Ferrera, Barbie
10. Rachel McAdams, Are You There God? It’s Me Margaret
11. Viola Davis, Air
12. Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

This category is almost as tricky as its female counterpart to predict. There are a trio of actors who seem like a lock — Oppenheimer’s Robert Downey, Jr., which would mark the actor’s 3rd nomination; Killers of the Flower Moon’s Robert DeNiro, which would mark his 9th; and Barbie’s Ryan Gosling, which would mark his 3rd. About a month ago, I would have bet real money that the final 2 spots would have gone to May December’s breakout critical darling Charles Melton and Poor Things’s Mark Ruffalo. However, both missed out on SAG and BAFTA nominations in favor of The Holdovers’s breakout Dominic Sessa, Ruffalo’s Poor Things co-star Willem Dafoe, and American Fiction’s Sterling K. Brown. I think the final 2 spots could go to any of those 5 actors, but I am going to go out on a limb and predict that Dafoe rides decades of Academy good will to a 5th nomination and that a wave of love for The Holdovers brings a Dominic Sessa nomination with it. (A truly delightful and out-of-left-field surprise would be if the brilliant work of child actor Milo Machado Graner in Anatomy of a Fall was a surprise nomination.)

1. Robert Downey, Jr., Oppenheimer
2. Robert DeNiro, Killers of the Flower Moon
3. Ryan Gosling, Barbie
4. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things
5. Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers
6. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things
7. Sterling K. Brown, American Fiction
8. Charles Melton, May December
9. Glenn Howerton, BlackBerry
10. Colman Domingo, The Color Purple
11. Paul Mescal, All of Us Strangers
12. Milo Machado Graner, Anatomy of a Fall

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Since the day I saw the film, I expected that Barbie would be the clear front-runner for the win here. However, when the Academy made its (questionable) determination that the film’s screenplay was adapted and not original, it opened things wide up here. There are only 3 films I feel confident to predict here — the profoundly Academy-friendly The Holdovers, the complex and acclaimed Anatomy of a Fall, and the nuanced and moving Past Lives. If I were a voter, I would round out this category with the subversive and thought-provoking screenplay for May December and the witty and passionate screenplay for Air. However, I suspect that the latter will be sidelined by the highly problematic but nevertheless high-profile screenplay for Maestro. A major spoiler may come in the form of the screenplay for Saltburn, as writer Emeral Fennell won this category 3 years ago for her 1st film Promising Young Woman and this seems like the natural place to cite such a buzzy, divisive film.

1. David Hemingson, The Holdovers
2. Justine Triet and Arthur Harari, Anatomy of a Fall
3. Celine Song, Past Lives
4. Samy Burch, May December
5. Bradley Cooper and Josh Singer, Maestro
6. Emerald Fennell, Saltburn
7. Alex Convery, Air
8. Sean Durkin, The Iron Claw
9. Hayao Miyazaki, The Boy and the Heron
10. Julian Breece and Dustin Lance Black, Rustin
11. Wes Anderson, Asteroid City
12. Aki Kaurismaki, Fallen Leaves

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Like Best Picture, this lineup seems to have as many locks as it has slots. It is hard to imagine the screenplays for Barbie, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, American Fiction, or Killers of the Flower Moon not making it in here. If there is a surprise, though, I suspect that Flower Moon could get passed over in favor of the screenplays for The Zone of Interest or All of Us Strangers.

1. Greta Gerwig and Noah Baumbach, Barbie
2. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
3. Tony McNamara, Poor Things
4. Cord Jefferson, American Fiction
5. Eric Roth and Martin Scorcese, Killers of the Flower Moon
6. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest
7. Andrew Haigh, All of Us Strangers
8. Marcus Gardley, The Color Purple
9. Phil Lord, Christopher Miller, and Dave Callaham, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
10. Kelly Fremon Craig, Are You There God? It’s Me Margaret
11. Sofia Coppola, Priscilla
12. Ava DuVernay, Origin

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