AN NBA LATE-SEASON UPDATE
Sign Me Up For the NBA Tinfoil Hat Convention!
Conspiracy theories are flying as fast as the Lakers climb the standings
The NBA wouldn’t be normal without a shit storm surrounding the Los Angeles Lakers.
And now they are officially back!
After the team started 2–10, aided by historically bad shooting and the locker room tension created by Russell Westbrook and Patrick Beverley, the Lakers managed to remain the league’s punching bag for five months. They were still 13th in a 15-team conference until February 25th, a dismal four games below .500 at 28–32.
But things changed.
Aided by a historically competitive — and mediocre *— West Conference, the Lakers climbed into the Play-In as the #9 seed nine days later, even though their record improved to two games below .500.
And guess what happened?
Nobody talked about the talent and depth of the team after it finally exiled Russell Westbrook, Patrick Beverley, Kendrick Nunn, and some draft picks to acquire the guys you traditionally put around LeBron James.
- Like guards who can shoot three-pointers.
- And rangy, athletic forwards who can defend and rebound so LeBron can rest his middle-aged body on defense.
- And a 7-foot back up center who can rebound and protect the rim.
Nobody talked about Anthony Davis playing some of the most dominant basketball of his career — he was in MVP conversations for the month before his last big injury.
And nobody talked about the possibility that a healthy LeBron James and Anthony Davis could destroy a season’s worth of regular season work for 29 other teams.
What the media wanted to talk about was free throws.
How could Austin Reaves, a pasty, unathletic white guy, score 35 points and get to the line 18 times in a win over Orlando? Or record 25 points, 11 assists and 13 free throws against Phoenix?
Phoenix coach Monty Williams decided to pay $20,000 in fines to rant about a 26-free throw discrepancy after losing to the Lakers. Never mind that Milwaukee beat them by 12 after shooting 21 more free throws the week before.
Never mind that his team is #26 in points in the paint, and #29 in personal fouls per possession for the season.
And let’s ignore the fact the Lakers are #3 in free throw attempts per field goal attempt, #6 in points in the paint, and have the most dominant duo in the league at getting to the rim in LeBron James and Anthony Davis.
Instead, the haters could assuage their feelings by blaming the NBA and the refs for fixing the games so the Lakers could make the playoffs. Because LeBron James and the Lakers are good for TV ratings and good for the “narrative” that drives the league according to media talking heads who hate the team.
So let me join the bandwagon, and don my tinfoil hat!
Here I used to think that my deep dives into advanced statistics would corroborate what I was seeing when I watch games like a coach, instead of a fan. (The difference is, a coach watches his player throughout each possession, instead of following the ball.)
That’s how you understand the unique greatness of Stephen Curry’s off-ball movement. That’s how you come to appreciate players who are stars in their role. And that’s how you shine a light on truly great defense instead of gaudy counting stats.
When you watch basketball that way, you figure out that Julius Randle and Devin Booker are All-Star level players three years before the media started talking about them. Or that Jrue Holiday is a much better defender than Marcus Smart. Or that Alex Caruso, Kyle Kuzma, and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope were key role players who win games — a fact nobody else figured out until they played for other teams’ fan bases.
But forget all that, the fix is in. And who am I going to believe, the trolls on twitter or my own damn eyes?
Here is my new take on advanced statistics that prove the referee conspiracies.
- NCAA refs were in league with the NBA. Austin Reaves’ ability to fake out players obsessed with blocking his shot was not a skill crafted since he was some scrawny unknown high school player. Who cares if he makes real basketball moves that result in buckets as he shoots through contact? Who cares if his free throw rate of .545 during a four-game stretch as the Lakers’ primary ball handler was almost the same as his entire senior season at Oklahoma (.541) in that role? Who cares if NBA defenses intent on double- and triple-teaming Anthony Davis allow Reaves to get into the paint every time and then fake out defenders scrambling to catch up to him? The fix is on, you delusional Lakers fans.
- The NBA screwed the Lakers during the season to provide cover for fixing games at the end. Who cares if LeBron James was fouled on the last play of regulation against Boston and Dallas and the refs swallowed their whistle? (and each time, the NBA issued a public apology for the egregious non-calls) Who cares if Trey Brown Jr. was fouled at the end of another game with Dallas and didn’t free throws on a foul specifically defined by the rules? Who cares if those three missed wins would make the Lakers tied for the #4 seed in the West? The team sucks, and shouldn’t even be in the play in.
- Having big, athletic players who can defend is just a cover for fixing games by the NBA. Darvin Ham is infamous for playing three-guard line-ups this season where 6'1" Patrick Beverley was assigned the task of guarding the opponent’s best scorers, like 6'10" Jayson Tatum. Who cares if the team traded small guys who can’t defend or rebound? Who cares if the Lakers are the #1 rated defense in the NBA since getting 6'8" guys to guard other 6'8" guys? We know the Lakers suck and the fix is in.
- Trading for guys who can shoot is just a cover for letting the Lakers win. Who cares that surrounding LeBron and AD with good shooters helped L.A. win a title in 2020? Who cares if the team’s three-point shooting went from historically bad (.266 in October and .286 in November) to league average (.361) in March? The Lakers are a lottery team. La la la la la la, I’ve got my fingers in my ears and I can’t hear you.
Is it possible the Lakers have become a good team?
The win against Minnesota on the road was a remarkable effort against a very good team on a roll. Who would have thought the Lakers could win a playoff-intensity game when they are at full strength?
Nahhh. It was because Naz Reed was out due to injury.
Here are a few advanced stats that might support the idea that someone performed the exorcism I prayed for a couple of weeks ago.
Since trade deadline, the Lakers have the third best record in the West, the #4 net rating, and have made a huge improvements in rebounding (#3 in REB %, #4 in OREB%, #5 in DREB %).
The Lakers have four of the top fourteen 4-man lineups in the NBA by net rating. Only the Knicks and the Kings had two of these lineups in the top ten, but only one of them featured key starters.
- #1. Davis, Schroder, Russell, Reaves (+49.2)
- #11. Davis, Schroder, Russell, Hachimura (+36.0)
- #13. LeBron, Davis, Schroder, Reaves (+35.8)
- #14. Davis, Schroder, Hachimura, Reaves (+34.8)
The Lakers have won all four games where LeBron, AD, and D’Angelo Russell started together by double digits (if you include the 8 minutes Russell played before getting hurt against Golden State).
But after looking at all that data, all I can do is shake my head and roll my eyes.
How could I ever have been such a sucker, such a die hard, delusional, true believer in Lakers exceptionalism?
If the Lakers make the playoffs, we’ll all know the fix is in; if they win a championship, it’s the end of times.
Like I said before.
All is right with the NBA world when Lakers haters can troll to their hearts’ content, while Lakers fans can hold on to their championship dreams.
All I can do is pray my shipment of tinfoil hats arrives soon.
FOOTNOTES
*In years past, we have seen Western Conferences teams win 48 games and finish ninth, missing the playoffs.
