Russian Politics
Russian Civil War Ahead?
Will Prigozhin side with the partisans and will other anti-Putin elements back him?
Fires across Russia’s eleven time zones
Fires are burning across Russia both metaphorically and in reality.
Recruitment offices are being burned.
Drones hit the Kremlin and the elite enclave of Rublyanka.
Railway lines are being blown up, trains derailed, signalling equipment destroyed.
Here on Medium, Chris Snow has been documenting the fires, blazetrailing, so to speak.
Putin insulates himself from the fires
But Putin is ensuring that he stays safe from palace intrigue by allowing his subordinates to knock heads. Stalin did the same.
Little has been seen of the master strategist lately. His latest appearance in front of the cameras was not impressive (if it really was him). Check the body language.
As the infighting reaches his limit
Putin has taken sides. His old St. Petersburg chef buddy has gone too far in his foul-mouthed criticism of the Russian military high command. Putin’s now backing Shoigu.
Yes, it’s all gone too far and a new law has been enacted.
Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu today ordered all “volunteer detachments” that are at the front in Ukraine to negotiate contracts with the Ministry of Defense by July 1. This effectively means PMC Wagner and dozens of other PMCs will have to go under the control of the Russian Ministry of Defence. A serious move by the weak and timid Shoigu which has of course been approved by Putin. Prigozhin refused the order and said PMC Wagner is already built into the system. See the screenshot below for the full quote: Igor Girkin, who couldn’t be more happy about the problems that Prigozhin now has, said that Prigozhin’s refusal is a mutiny: “This here is a mutiny in the army if you call things what they are.”
We are observing another twist in the internal clash between power groups in Russia, which is a great sign.
This would effectively emasculate Prigozhin and his Wagner PMC.
But Prigozhin is having none of it.
Full Prigozhin rant:
Prigozhin revolts against Shoigu again He said that the “Wagner” PMC will not be subordinate to the Russian Defense Ministry. “Those orders and decrees, which are formed by Shoigu, they apply to the employees of the Ministry of Defense and the military. PMC “Wagner” will not sign any contracts with Shoigu. PMC “Wagner” is organically embedded in the overall system, the PMC “Wagner” agrees with the generals on the right and left, and with the commanders of the units. What can happen after this order — we will not be given weapons and ammunition — we’ll deal with it, as they say, when the thunder comes, they will come and bring everything,” said the leader of the mercenaries.
Maybe Russia does need another army…
But will the Chinese sign up? I don’t think so.
Priceless! How desperate they must be if they are talking like this.
That’s where you end up when one army is fighting for its very country, the very existence of its culture and language, and the other army doesn’t know why it’s fighting at all.
WWII is often cited as a gee-up by the Russian media, but in WWII the Soviet army was fighting for, yes, its very country, the very existence of its culture and language. It’s quite the opposite now.
There is no external existential threat to Russia. There never was.
Prigozhin has made no secret of his ambitions
He has been running a canny media campaign and everything the Kremlin does to clip his nails he cleverly turns to his advantage.
The question now is whether the chef will mobilise his Wagner forces against the Russian state apparatus.
If you have been watching his messaging over the last few months, you will see that he has been visible at or close to the front lines in Bakhmut.
He has talked up his mercenaries and sympathised with the mainstream Russian grunts, lambasting their commanders, strategy and tactics, all the way up to Shoigu and Gerasimov. He has tilted at the elites (although a billionaire himself).
In short, he’s portrayed himself as the soldier’s soldier despite a lack of formal command training (which has probably worked to his advantage).
As to wider linkage, it’s been said that Prigozhin has friends and admirers in the FSB which is suspected of being anti the Ukraine adventure, even after Putin purged it.
But let’s remember that there is no love lost between Prigozhin and the Chechen President Ramzan Kadyrov who says he has 70,000 troops ready to deploy on the eastern front. Kadyrov is a Colonel General in the Russian military and his Akhmat detachment is in a grey zone as far as I can tell, not really a PMC.
Other PMCs
In February 2023 it was reported that Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin signed a decree which allowed Gazprom to launch “a mercenary army”. Several other mercenary groups have been in evidence, such as “Redut”, “Shield”, “Rusych” and the ministerial-affiliated “Patriot” group. (Wikipedia)
Where those PMCs stand in relation to Putin is unknown, although it’s fair to say that most PMCs in Russia tend towards a right wing viewpoint.
Bringing it all together
Prigozhin’s overt power base is his Wagnerian army, now in R&R camps in occupied Ukraine after withdrawal from Bakhmut.
To achieve a takeover in Russia he would certainly need to engage regular armed forces in a structured way.
And he would need to enlist the help of the FSB. The FSB could certainly foment wider unrest in Russia.
Then there are the ‘informal’ partisans all over Russia, but also the formal partisans who have probed deeply into the Belgorod area of Russia — the Russian Volunteer Corps (RVC) and the Russian Freedom Legion (RFL). These are reported to be signing up Russians they have captured in the Belgorod incursions and also deserters.
Prigozhin would not ‘free’ Russia so would they sign up to Prigozhin’s cause just to get rid of Putin?
We also need to consider the stance of Wagner’s other boss, Lt. Col. Dmitry Utkin (“Wagner”). He’s ex-Russian GRU special forces and a recognised neo-Nazi who keeps a very low profile. On balance I think he would be anti-Putin and could provide a linkage to the RVC and RFL and perhaps back a move by Prigozhin. Or let Prigozhin do the dirty work and then eliminate him.
War does strange things to the power-hungry.
But…
In a Newsweek report, an FSB agent said that “there is no model of ‘just changing power’” in Russia.
“There is no way to ‘change everything’ in Russia so that the country as a whole will function and does not descend into the abyss of terror,” the email said, laying out how a civil war would play out in the country.
Gorbachev achieved change, but was it ‘everything’?
Ramzan Kadyrov’s stance in such a ‘coup’ would be unknown, but it’s arguable that Putin sees Kadyrov’s army as a counter to Wagner. And how does Kadyrov’s army stand vis a vis the new law requiring central state contracts? They are not all Chechens — Kadurov has been recruiting widely overseas. As I said earlier, the Akhmat detachment is in a grey area and it seems to me that their status would be that of a friendly country’s army and therefore not subject to Shoigu’s new law.
The other big ‘but’ is the attitude of the West.
It’s extremely unlikely that the West would be happy about political chaos in a nuclear-armed Russia. NATO would much prefer a weak and predictable Putin in power over a relatively stable Russia. Even a strong and stable Putin was acceptable, but that’s out of the window now (no pun intended).
The alternatives are very unattractive. However it turns out there will be no treaties with a war criminal, but ultimately there will be a treaty of some form — there always is.
Prigozhin in the Kremlin? I suspect that Washington is highly nervous of such a prospect. The Russian armed forces appear to be substantially unfit for purpose, so what would Prigozhin do to make Russia great again (as he said just this week)?
We’ve seen regime change disasters in Iraq, Libya and Afghanistan.
Politically and militarily the West is supporting the defeat that Putin is facing, but what will defeat look like and what’s the plan?
If Russia is defeated and Putin usurped then who’s next?
Shoigu?
And what’s next?
Latest:
The grey area around Kadyrov and his Akhmat detachment is cleared up:
And it looks like Wagner is now lined up against Akhmat.
Kadyrov’s troops were sent to fight in Belgorod The Akhmat detachments of Ramzan Kadyrov were sent to the Belgorod region, Z-media reports. “It is reported that Akhmat special forces units have arrived in Shebekino. Apparently, epic battles of the Russian Volunteer Corps against Akhmat are waiting for us soon,” writes the AP Wagner channel. — Twitter
More ramp-up…
Where will Prigozhin get ammunition?
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