Politics and the Ukraine War

How Far is Putin from a Putsch?

It’s not as easy as changing 3 letters

Putin…

Put…

Putsch.

If only it were that simple to replace a dictator.

It takes planning and preparation, nerves of steel and steel. Or poison. Or a biological weapon. Putin knows the risks — he used these methods to eliminate his detractors.

Covid?

As Shakespeare’s Macbeth said in his soliloquy:

If it were done when ’tis done, then ‘twere well It were done quickly

The most famous putsch?

Undoubtedly, that was the killing of Julius Caesar. His friend Brutus was one of a group who each stabbed him, leading to the immortal last words ‘Et tu Brute?’

What is a putsch?

A putsch is a type of coup d’état in which members of a group (usually the military) overthrow the existing government. The putsch is often carried out as a last resort, when the government is seen as being ineffective or corrupt. The term comes from the Swiss German word “Putsch,” meaning “sudden attack.”

Putschs are usually illegal and unconstitutional, and they often — but not always — result in violence and bloodshed. In some cases, the putschists may take control of the government, while in others they may be overthrown by loyalist forces.

Putschs are often triggered by a period of political instability in a nation state.

In recent history there have been several notable failed putsch attempts, in Europe and Russia — and even in Austria as recently as 2017.

There’s a substantial list of historical putschs/coups here.

And here are just a few of the more notable ones in the 20th Century

The 1923 Munich Beer Hall Putsch — failed, but…

This is probably the most well-known attempted putsch in recent history. In 1923, Adolf Hitler and his fellow Nazi Party members attempted to overthrow the Bavarian government in a putsch that took place at the Munich Beer Hall. The attempt failed and Hitler was tried for High Treason and sent to prison for five years where he fulminated and began writing ‘Mein Kampf’. He was released after one year.

And so the failed putsch but resulted ultimately in the Second World War.

1936 Spanish Putsch — failed, but…

On July 17, 1936, a group of Spanish military officers attempted to overthrow the government of Spain.

The putsch attempt began on the afternoon of July 17, when General Emilio Mola ordered his troops to seize control of key buildings in Madrid and other major cities. However, the assault quickly stalled as loyalist soldiers and civilians fought back with significant bloodshed.

The result of the coup was a severe political polarization of Spain. The putsch failed in its short-term objectives, but led to the Spanish Civil War.

There was another notable putsch attempt in Spain in 1981. That failed too.

More recently in Russia there was an attempted putsch.

1991 Russian Putsch — failed

In 1991 there was a failed attempt at a putsch by hardline Communist Party members to remove Mikhail Gorbachev from power and restore the Soviet Union. His policies of glasnost and perestroika were unpopular amongst many of the old guard.

The plotters, led by Vladimir Kryuchkov, launched their coup attempt on August 19, 1991.

However, the plot quickly unraveled as Russian President Boris Yeltsin rallied resistance to the coup and called for a general strike. By August 21, the coup had collapsed and Gorbachev was returned to power. The putsch attempt was a major blow to the Communist Party, which was forced to give up its monopoly on power in Russia later that year.

Yeltsin became the dominant leader as President of Russia and Gorbachev lost much of his influence as Soviet President and General Secretary of the Party. The Soviet Union was dissolved four months later.

And then another:

1993 — A ‘Self Coup’ in Russia, but

The 1993 Russian constitutional crisis (also known as the 1993 October Coup, Black October, the Shooting of the White House or Ukase 1400) occurred when President Boris Yeltsin successfully launched a self-coup. It’s a strange concept perhaps, but he over-rode the Russian constitution when he illegally dissolved the Russian parliament using military force.

And Russia came very close to civil war.

The big but here is that Yeltsin handed power to Vladimir Putin.

2022 — Russia, Putin Putsch. Who knows?

It’s clear that Russia had an active history of putsch activity in the 20th Century without even considering the Revolution of 1917.

In August 1999, Vladimir Putin was named prime minister when Boris Yelstsin refused to authorize another war in Chechnya. Nonetheless, Putin was prepared and in return for their unconditional support, he handed the military complete reign on account of their humiliating 1996 defeat.

After famously promising to “waste the terrorists even in the outhouse” Putin was triumphantly elected president in March 2000. Since then, the 21st Century has been all quiet on the Russian home front, at least in respect of internal control. Putin has been continuously tightening the screws of repression as he has aged, and, as some might say, as he has become more paranoid.

But in February 2022 at almost 70 years of age he set out on what was really his first foreign war proper. Predecessors’ wars were over. Proxy wars were over. Using mercenaries (e.g. Wagner in the Central African Republic) was over.

Could this change in approach, this adoption of full on warfare against a sovereign state, herald another Russian putsch? A military coup perhaps?

There are certainly many people who believe that this would represent the best way to resolve the crisis. Putin has been driven by a desire to right what he erringly perceives as the wrongs in recent Russian history, but he has only made things worse.

Mother Russia has a bloody nose, she has lost many of her sons, she has lost her bank accounts, her treasure and the respect of the world. Her population are uneasy — witness the demonstrations — and not stupid. Her military will want to preserve some of their self-respect and pride.

Her people and her military have risen before. They could well do it again.

And Putin himself is surrounded by oligarchs he calls friends, oligarchs who have been stripped of their western assets and wealth. Perhaps there is a Brutus among them.

But perhaps those looking for a Brutus should be careful what they wish for.

Beware the Ides of March.

https://readmedium.com/samizdat-is-on-the-up-522aa258838

https://readmedium.com/has-putin-misjudged-the-russian-public-eeb554e1a767

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