Politics, Putin and Ukraine
Putin Has Misjudged the Russian Public
The Internationale now means something completely different to Russian under-35s
The Internationale
The Internationale is the anthem of the international socialist movement. The lyrics were written in 1871 by Eugène Pottier, a French anarchist and member of the First International. He was inspired by the internationalism of the First International, of which he was a member. It was set to a melody composed by Pierre de Geyter.
But it came to be more than an anthem, it represented a movement — the dream of international socialism. A world without borders, without nations, and without exploitation.
It inspired communists, revolutionaries and Soviet society and many people around the world in dreams of equality and a better society.
We know that didn’t work, though people still dream.
But Putin dreams on
Whether it’s Western disinformation (doubtful) or leaks from within the FSB, there is an increasing belief that Vladimir Putin is living in an isolated, paranoid world. So says The Times of India, for example.
Putin has himself demonstrated a warped perspective of Russian history and has been seeking to re-write it, just as his Politburo forbears did. He dreams of a renewed, reinvigorated Russian Empire with, of course, himself as Tsar.
The big flaw
The big flaw in his analysis (besides delusion) is that he will never carry the Russian people with him. The older section of the population may be stoical and used to suffering under the old Soviet regime, but the younger ones are not.
It’s over 30 years since the Soviet empire collapsed and in that time a whole new generation of Russians has been born.
There are an estimated 72 million Russians under the age of 35. This is a significant decrease from the estimated 86 million Russians under the age of 35 in 1990. but no matter.
The older people have been dying off, and there are few alive today who can remember the Great Patriotic War. There are still a few who can remember life under Stalin and many who can remember life under his successors, the queues for food, the fear of the KGB, the wars in Afghanistan and Chechnya.
What the Internationale means today
Roughly 35% of the Russian population was under 35 years old in 2016. A curious coincidence of numbers perhaps, but a huge problem for Putin. That section of the population sees the Internationale differently. It sees, has lived with, and experienced (like it or not):
- Mobile phones and international communications
- The internet and (broadly) free access to information
- International travel
- Easy access to food, clothing and consumer goods
- Western lifestyles
- Capitalism
- Improved standards of living
Yes, and corruption too, but that was always there. Corruption and Terror were the two legs on which Soviet society was able to stand for so long.
Natasha is finding it hard to come to terms with the changes. “This is a completely new kind of crisis which makes us all feel lost and bewildered. Not just in business but in our own lives. The loss of income, having to give up a whole way of life, reduced connections, including on social media, and not being able to travel to see family and friends who live abroad. There are a lot of things we have already lost and haven’t yet fully understood.”- BBC
That list is what the Internationale means to many Russians today.
I worked in Moscow in the early ’90s, just when McDonald’s opened their first outlet there. I saw the 1/2 mile queues of Russians eager to sample the fare. Sad perhaps, for many reasons, and that was almost 30 years ago.
The symbolism of McDonald’s closing its 847 restaurants has not been lost on Russians — it was among the first Western firms to open in the Soviet Union 30 years ago. Within hours of the announcement, thousands of adverts appeared from Russians reselling food from its restaurants, at up to 10 times the usual price. “Nuggets and pies bought just before the restaurant chain closed down. Your last chance to taste foreign bliss,” said one message.- BBC
The younger population has got used to the Western diet, not only of food but all the other things I listed.
Public disaffection with Putin as repression increases
There’s been a steady erosion of civil liberties and media freedom since Putin took the reins in 1999. And it continues. He is clamping down hard with 15 year jail sentences for spreading the truth about his ‘special military exercise’ in the Ukraine. The screws are being continuously tightened, but people and the underground — samizdat — media are fighting back.
There are widespread demonstrations in Russia against Putin’s war of choice in the Ukraine.
Russian education standards are good, the people are not stupid and now they see Putin leading them back into a gulag existence. This is what Al Jazeera published this week:
More than 5,000 people were arrested in Russia while taking part in demonstrations against Moscow’s war against Ukraine in 69 cities across the country on Sunday alone, according to the OVD-Info monitoring group.
That compares with 1,900 protesters arrested on February 24, the day of the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion in Ukraine — a rise of 160 percent.
Failure is built in for Putin
Putin could win the war in the Ukraine, but he will surely have a major problem keeping the Russian population under control. And of course the definition of ‘win’ is subject to a big debate. Even if he takes control of the reins of the country with a puppet government there is almost certainly likely to be significant guerrilla activity.
Wherefore the Internationale then?
The Internationale certainly means something entirely different to the under-35s in Russia today, something that Eugène Pottier never had in mind when he wrote the lyrics.
Or maybe he did?
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