Geopolitics

Russia Takes Ukraine, China Takes Taiwan? Is That Chess?

Or is it really as simple as a game of ‘You scratch my back, I’ll scratch yours’?

Is geopolitics really that simple?

We are entering a new era. The world is changing. Who would have thought that the Germans would be re-arming, supplying weapons to the Ukraine?

Next up, China will move against Taiwan. Soon, while Putin is still around. Undoubtedly, they have a stronger historical claim on it than Putin has on Ukraine. Or will they?

Now there’s a view that if China supports (or at least stands apart) while Russia invades the Ukraine, then Moscow will support (or at least stand apart) when — IF — China decides to invade Taiwan.

Here are a few good reasons why I do not think that this will happen:

GO

Putin may play chess (and his skills in that political regard are looking increasingly weak) but the Chinese play GO.

GO is arguably the greatest game of strategy which is why Go and not chess is used to test the power of supercomputers.

GO is tremendously complicated. There are a staggering 10 to the power of 170 different board configurations, more than the number of atoms in existence. This makes Go a googol (that’s 1⁰¹⁰⁰) times more complex than chess.

So, Chinese planning is long term. They think in centuries, although dynasties are a thing of the past for them.

Putin’s planning may extend to decades and is strongly influenced (as was Hitler’s) by historical grievance.

China is not impulsive

Chinese short-term foreign policy will not have changed as a result of Putin’s ‘will he, won’t he?’ invasion of Ukraine.

They will have set their strategy for recovering Taiwan a long time back and Putin’s uncertain adventures will not make them alter course in the short term.

Putin will not be around when China moves on Taiwan. The king on his chessboard will have been toppled.

US support for Taiwan

Ukraine is outside NATO and NATO’s tripwires are clearly pegged out across the borders of Europe. Putin knows where he cannot move without a serious counter-attack by the US and its allies. But he may risk it — and the Chinese would certainly react to that, and certainly not to support him.

With Taiwan, different rules apply. The Chinese will not make a move to take the island without a very serious response from the US. Support from Moscow would be the least of their concerns.

Therefore, mutual backscratching is of no interest to them.

What the Chinese want

The Chinese approach is Go-like, slowly slowly catchee monkey, slowly building islands in the South China Sea and converting them into naval and air bases.

Putin’s Ukraine adventurism has certainly caused concern in Beijing. The last thing they wanted was the West increasing arms expenditure and screwing up their own plans.

But the game GOs on

It could just be posturing to force the Chinese to take a position, but the US is telling the EU that China will provide military support to Putin.

The game GOs on:

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