Part of the Global Ascension Series

Resilience Theory tells us to Get Ready for an Innovation Explosion Thanks to COVID-19

[Updated Oct 15, 2020] Resilience Theory & the Adaptive Cycle

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Resilience theory postulates that change is fundamental and the only constant that we can depend on. Because all things change over time, social and ecological systems (from a single entity to the entire planet) must adapt to its changing context — or perish.

Resilience theory uses a systems approach. We can view everything that we are interested in as a system, with internal relationships that are also influenced by external ones. For resilience theory, systems usually include natural ecosystems, countries, cities, companies, economic sectors, civil sectors (such as education and a utility infrastructure).

(Note that the psychological resilience of individuals and social groups differs from this model, which emerged from biology and ecosystem sciences, as well as disaster management studies.)

Figure 1 shows the Resilience Adaptive Cycle. The model suggests that systems move through four general stages or phases:

Phase 1: (Re-)Organization — When a system is new, it is Organizing itself. When an existing system is recovering from a Collapse, it is Re-organizing itself to align with its new environment.

Phase 2: Growth — Once we establish new ground rules because of Phase 1, the system can Exploit opportunities that have arisen in the changed context after the Collapse, and thus grow.

Phase 3: Consolidation — As the Growth period matures, it becomes institutionalized, with dominant companies or other monopoly organizations setting fixed rules that often inhibit innovation, creativity and competition. (We adopt anti-trust laws to at least partially prevent this from happening.)

Phase 4: Collapse — Change happens. If the system is too rigid to adapt to a naturally changing environment, because of Phase 3, it may Collapse (also known as a disaster or crisis event). This quickly puts the system into a Re-organization phase. It can also result in the complete dissolution of the system.

Systems do not need to move through all four of these phases. The Collapse phase can be avoided if the system maintains a culture of constant innovation to match its changing environment. In other words, it stays in Phases 1, 2 and 3 only, as shown in Figure 2.

Similarly, a system could be ‘stuck’ in a Collapse sequence if it is unable to exploit its opportunities and resources effectively. In other words, it stays mostly in Phases 1 and 4. The “cycle of poverty” is an example of a system stuck in a Collapse loop.

In addition, the intensity of each phase can vary considerably. For example, a Collapse phase can be minor and easily overcome, or it can be a pandemic. It can also be a common occurrence, or a rare, once-in-a-lifetime event.

The COVID-19 Pandemic Collapse

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused a dramatic Collapse of the human earth system. (Although it appears that most non-human systems are actually benefiting.)

While its impacts vary in time and place across the globe, every place is experiencing some negative impact to its social, economic, education, medical and other systems and subsystems. Only the two World Wars were as global in their impacts as the COVID-19 pandemic has been.

At the time of this writing (late July 2020), the COVID-19 Collapse phase is still taking place for most of the world. Even in places where its spread seems to have abated, it is often unexpectedly re-emerging.

At the same time, some Re-organization of our human systems has begun. However, it is still too early to know how that will evolve and what the final outcomes will look like. The path to recovery is far from clear.

What is most interesting to me is how many countries (including the US) seem to be trying to skip the Re-organization phase and return to “business as normal” (prior to the pandemic). Other places (perhaps including China) appear to be implementing what seems to be draconian tracking systems to as a Re-organizational response to the pandemic.

How the Adaptive Cycle Works

At the time of this writing, no country has found a stable and proven long-term path to recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. This is because, in part at least, they do not understand how the Adaptive Cycle works. Figure 3 shows the major characteristics (or variables) of each stage in the Adaptive Cycle. These are:

(1) Resilience — This is the ability of the system to innovate and adapt to the changes brought about by the Collapse event. In resilience systems theory, ‘resilience’ is all about creatively adapting to a changed environment.

In the Collapse phase, the ability to adapt (Resilience) is often very low because the new situation is not well enough understood.

(2) Potential — This is the ability of the system to access and use resources (including physical, human, and economic) that were accumulated prior to the system’s Collapse. Direct access to a product might be cut off or greatly limited (such as toilet paper), and access to a market might disappear (such as restaurant customers).

In the Collapse phase, the ability to use past resources is usually very low because supply and market chains (connections) are disrupted, if not totally broken.

(3) Connectedness — This is the ability of the system to manage and control its current situation. If the Collapse is significant and new, it is likely to cause a lot of confusion with a strong feeling of being out of control.

In the Collapse phase, the ability to control the situation decreases rapidly. There is some control at the start of the Collapse, when short-term emergency measure are often taken to soften the landing.

Figure 4 highlights the major characteristics of the Collapse phase in red. Low Resilience, Low Potential, and rapidly Declining Connectedness results in widespread confusion over what can be trusted and a sense that everything that was previously learned is now irrelevant.

Of course, this will vary across systems and subsystems. Some parts will be largely untouched due to their innate adaptability (Resilience), strong and secure links to resources (Potential), and ability to control their new context (Connectedness). Other areas, however, will show weaknesses in one of more of these three areas.

Opportunities in the Re-Organization Phase

Resilience theory tells us that the Re-organization phase, which we are entering, is characterized by Increasing Resilience (adaptability), Positive Potential (access to resources), but Low Connectedness (ability to control our situation). The Low Connectedness, in particular, provides a release from old institutional structure, many of which have Collapsed. Access to resources (Potential) is high because new supply chains have emerged to fill the gaps left by the old ones.

There is an explosion in innovation and creativity in the Re-Organization phase, especially once the system realizes that “returning to the past” is not possible. This is because there are no other options but to come up with something new to transform and adapt to the new context. Individuals who realize this will be at the forefront of success through this phase of the Adaptive Cycle.

As an example, in these early days of responding to the COVID-19 pandemic, innovative responses are seen in the alternative ways that people are connecting with one another in the context of social/physical distancing policies. Telecommunication technologies, in particular, are being harnessed for this, resulting in a massive growth in online classes, meetings and webinars, as well as new companies. This is likely to remain after the pandemic subsides.

Humans are social animals. If they cannot connect physically, they will find other ways. These other forms of connection are creating new pathways to knowledge, understanding, and empathy across the globe. From this perspective, the deeper lesson of physical distancing has to do with expanding the integration of the planet in new directions.

Innovation is Key to Recovery

What is most important at this early innovative stage of Re-organization is to be open to all ideas. Innovation requires that we hold our judgement and acknowledge the potential value of every proposition. That means acknowledging some potential value in opposite opinions and opposing philosophies and beliefs (such as neoliberal economics and sustainable development).

Unfortunately, the potential futures that we currently envision are largely based on the pasts that we know. The new, innovative structure(s) that will ultimately emerge are mostly beyond our capacity to conceptualize at this time — that is why they are called “innovations”.

The innovations of the future will be formulated in the Re-organizational phase of the Adaptive Cycle, and then tested and proven in the Growth phase. In that phase, an innovation’s success is an indication of how well it aligns with the planet’s new reality.

Many people have come to realize, in recent years, that the planet needs to change in major ways to avoid impending ecological disasters. COVID-19 is delivering on that desire. Change is not easy, but this is the best chance in a lifetime to move the planet in a new direction. People are endlessly creative, and they need to use their creativity to build a new society.

Future Forecasting

Prognosticating the future is risky, especially in these days of not knowing how the COVID-19 pandemic will progress. Just as mysterious is how the Re-organization resilience phase will pan out.

With those caveats in mind, this is my attempt to offer a creative and innovative scenario to recover from our present Collapse. Figure 1 models a very possible transition from the current COVID-19 pandemic through the four phases of the Adaptive Cycle.

In the short term, possibly for the coming two to five years (or more), efforts will be made by many to “Return to the Past” — to recover from the pandemic and get back to the way things were before this event. Many people have a strong desire for this after being locked down for weeks and months. Some are expressing this desire by returning to their favorite restaurants, bars, and domestic destinations. Most, however, are more cautious.

Recovery in this way is being seen in those parts of Asia where the pandemic originated and has come under a good degree of control. However, while there is evidence of some modest growth in these countries, there are also indications that this “new normal” is not the same as the old. New monitoring schemes are in place to detect and quickly manage new virus outbreaks. And fear is keeping many away from higher-risk places.

For a time, it might seem that little has changed beyond the introduction of new health monitoring and sanitizing systems. People will seem, on the surface at least, to be behaving much as they did prior to the pandemic.

Over time, however, behaviors and attitudes will shift. This is because COVID-19 and similar global events are not going away. Even if this current pandemic is eradicated, there will be other outbreaks arising due to the environmental damage and globally connected world that humankind has created. In this way, the planet and humankind will be forced to shift into a new reality.

Alternative Realities

The dominant values of the past will be less supported and ultimately abandoned as new values arising from the COVID-19 experience become more prominent. This will give rise to a period of experimentation with Alternate Realities, shown in the middle curve in Figure 5, as the Re-organization phase of the Adaptive Cycle transitions into a Growth phase.

Some of these alternate experiments in organizing human societies had already emerged in isolated ways prior to the pandemic. These will become more prominent, along with newer, innovative alternatives that have not yet been imagined. The world will change, as it always does.

Some of the major values that might underlie these alternatives social systems include:

• Peace (within and between countries and peoples);
• Love, Health and Happiness (as basic human rights);
• Equity, Fairness, and Cooperation (in government and business policies and relations, and ensuring protection of most vulnerable populations and places); and
• Green Economy (such as full-cost life-cycle pricing and local sourcing), or perhaps a Gift Economy (where people pay what they can afford).

How these values will be achieved is unknown at this time, as they need to emerge from experimentation and consensus decision making. This is the most challenging work to undertake during this COVID-19 Re-organization transition, as it requires facilitating change that has agreed upon values, while encouraging experimentation without an agreed upon method.

A Future Utopia?

Eventually, a mostly global consensus will form over which approach or mix of approaches works best for a Future Utopia on Earth (shown by the start of a third arch in Figure 5). What this alternative utopia looks like is really impossible to know, as it will emerge from the experiments with Alternate Realities as the Adaptive Cycle moves into the Consolidation phase at some point in the future.

The best we can do at this time is to focus on the values that should form the basis of an Alternative Reality in the near term, and maybe a Future Utopia in the long term, by personally defining and living them.

Things could get worse before they get better, but if we can hold our vision for what is possible, we can achieve it, at least in some measure. I do not expect the old social-economic system to be upended entirely, but its silencing during the pandemic is an opportunity for new and innovative voices to be heard.

Here is a link to an article on FastCompany.com that talks about the emerging revolution in technology that will change our lives in the coming decade (published Oct 5, 2020):

References

This article is based on:

• Lew, A.A., Cheer, J. M., Haywood, M., Brouder, P., and Salazar, N. (2020). Visions of travel and tourism after the global COVID-19 transformation of 2020. Tourism Geographies 20(3), https://doi.org/10.1080/14616688.2020.1770326

Referenced Cited include:

• Allison, H.E. and Hobbs, R.J. (2004). Resilience, adaptive capacity, and the “Lock-in Trap” of the Western Australian agricultural region. Ecology and Society 9(1): 3. Online at http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol9/iss1/art3
• Holling, C. S. (2001). Understand the Complexity of Economic, Ecological, and Social Systems. Ecosystem, 4, 390–405.
• Lew, A. A. (2017). Modeling the Resilience Adaptive Cycle. Collaborative for Sustainable Tourism and Resilient Communities Blog (21 January). Retrieved from http://www.tourismcommunities.com/blog/modeling-the-resilience-adaptive-cycle
• Lew, A.A. (2020a). Resilience, Relevance, and Re-Organizing Tourism Research post COVID-19. Presentation for the TTRA & Temple University Webinar on June 3, 2020: How to “recover” tourism research’s relevance after COVID-19 (YouTube). Download presentation at https://AlanLew.com/Presentations
• Walker, B. H. and Salt, D. (2006). Resilience Thinking: Sustaining Ecosystems and People in a Changing World. Washington: Island Press.

Related

• Lew, A.A. (2014). Scale, change and resilience in community tourism planning. Tourism Geographies 16(1): 14–22.
• A related article I have wrote on Medium is:

• For a New Age spiritual perspective on this article, see this article on Medium:

• For more on Global Ascension & A New Earth, see this collection of articles. Note that the articles in this collection are behind the Medium paywall. For paywall-free access to my articles, go to www.AlanLew.com, linked below.

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