Ranking the 14 NBA Lottery Teams’ Futures
What teams are in best shape before the ping pong balls?
We’re down to the best teams in basketball now- and the Raptors!!- but the NBA always pauses in mid-May to get everyone hyped about the future. Tuesday night is the NBA Draft Lottery, where 1000 combinations of 10 ping pong balls will determine the future for 14 NBA teams.
The teams that stunk this year (and didn’t already trade away their picks, looking at you NYC) will cross their fingers and hope for a top-2 pick and a chance to draft studs-to-be Ben Simmons and Brandon Ingram. But the lottery teams already have plenty of pieces in place, and some are set-up for success even without getting lucky Tuesday night.
So what does the Magic 8 Ball have to say about each lottery team’s future?
Outlook Not So Good — Going Nowhere Fast
14. Brooklyn Nets
The Nets are in rough shape. Brook Lopez is terrific and just had his best season, but he’s a 28-year-old big with injury history and the rest of the cupboard is bare. Thad Young is usable but there’s not much young talent here and no help on its way. They of course don’t have their top-5 pick this year, they swap spots with Boston next year, and they lose the ’18 1st. And they’ve already traded their next five 2nds through 2020 too. Nothing here, and nothing on the way means it will get worse before it gets better.
13. Sacramento Kings
Boogie still looks like a superstar, but it probably won’t be in Sacto much longer and it’s hard to count on Vivek and Vlade to get anywhere near value. The rest of the vets- Gay, Koufos, Belinelli, Collison, Casspi- are proven losers. Rondo is an unrestricted free agent, and the team won just enough to miss out on a good pick this year, and the picks get even uglier moving forward.
Philly has swap rights to this year’s pick but the Kings did lose enough to stop from owing it to Chicago. Chicago still owns the rights to next year’s pick unless it’s in the top 10, and Philly has the same rights and protections in 2018. The good news is that the Kings should stay bad enough to keep both picks. But even then, Philly gets the 2019 1st instead- unprotected- which could be devastating like the Brooklyn to Boston pick this year.
WCS and McLemore are useful young guys on a good team but not much to build around. The team is Boogie, and Boogie wants out. They need a reset and a trade and will probably get 40 cents on the dollar. Not great, Bob.
12. Los Angeles Lakers
The Lakers have only six players under contract for next year, with Kobe and Hibbert alone clearing $40 million off the books. But there’s not much there with those six. Lou and Swaggy P are backups, and Nance and A.Brown are unproven maybe rotation guys for now. The two building blocks are D’Angelo Russell and Julius Randle, who both certainly look like nice pieces.
Missing from that picture is Jordan Clarkson, who is an unrestricted free agent now. And sure, the Lakers like to paint themselves as the forever-ideal free agent landing spot but really, what FAs have signed there recently? Shaq of course, but who? Past-expiration Malone and Payton? Rotation players Fisher and Fox? It’s not as rosy as Lakers fans think. Guys like Durant and Westbrook may not be walking through that door- an overpaid “superstar” like DeRozan is more likely, and he’s a souped up version of Lou and Swaggy. Money and Hollywood are nice but no longer enough.
Lakers ownership loves to believe in its own manifest destiny and throw around its future picks with disregard. Maybe the ping pong balls do smile on them and give them Simmons or Ingram Tuesday night- or they may give away the 4th in the draft, only their second top-five pick in 30+ years. And they also still owe a 1st round pick to Orlando from the Howard deal, top-5 protected in 2018 or completely unprotected in 2019. Lakers brass probably think that pick will be in the 20s, but it could well end up as high as this one.
Maybe manifest destiny is real, the Lakers get a top-2 pick superstar, and the free agents come. Or maybe the Lakers are about to turn into the 2000s Knicks. Speaking of which…
11. New York Knicks
The Knicks traded away both their picks this year and, ridiculously, have already traded away all their 2nds through 2021. BUT they finally own their 1stss moving forward after this draft, and there are some signs off life. The Melo and RoLo deals are about to become more palatable, and there’s genuine excitement about Porzingis and J.Grant.
There are real pieces, but it’s half present and half future, and management is still stuck in the past with Phil Jackson and Kurt Rambis. The Knicks need to make a decision- now or later. The answer is later, and that means Melo goes. Rebuild once more, do it right, and something real may be on its way.
Don’t Count On It — Teams in No Man’s Land
10. Chicago Bulls
Ouch, really? It went bad fast. There’s nothing particularly ugly here but there’s not much to look at either- the Bulls are a classic Midwestern six. Noah is gone, and Pau is certain to follow. Rose, Taj, and Mirotic all expire after this season and clear another $36 million, and then what’s left?
Butler is on a great deal but he’s building up a troubling injury list and is a lower-end star. McDermott, Portis, Snell… not sure what’s there yet. And that’s it really, after this year. So what are these Bulls anyway, especially if Butler really wants out? The answer may not be pretty.
9. Utah Jazz
Glass half-empty on this one. A year ago Utah was a league darling, one of the next great young teams. So why the harsh grade? Because this team has almost come of age, just blew a really valuable year, and now is ripening quickly with decisions to make and an upside that looks limited.
Gobert and Burke are looking for extensions already this summer. Next summer Hood and Exum will want theirs, and Hayward is likely to opt out so they’ll have to pony up for him too. And after that’s done, there’s no space left to resign Favors or Burks. They’ll have picks, but lots more in the Trey Lyles teens range, where you have to cross your fingers and develop.
Suddenly this window got shortened to just a year or two. In the West they’re not even good enough to get a home playoff series. And Utah is no FA destination so they probably have to sign all these guys and hope for the best. But “best” might now be Atlanta Hawks West, where a gritty team overachieves and fights to win a playoff series and that’s it.
8. New Orleans Pelicans
The bad news is that Anderson and Gordon are both unrestricted and could be gone, and Jrue and Tyreke will join them in a year. The good news is… well, all of that. None of those guys have been particularly worth having.
The key is what happens next- this team needs to keep a close eye on the first Lebron era in Cleveland, where the Cavs constantly overpaid average players, desperate to compete. Either the Pels can panic and overpay Anderson or Gordon or others, or they can reset things properly with Anthony Davis in tow for 4 more years. They have money and a top-7 pick this year plus another likely coming next year and no bad contracts. Still plenty to like if they can wait a couple years. The problem is every sign points to the Pels going Lebron Era I moving forward, or they’d be higher on this list just for having Brow.
7. Washington Wizards
Everyone soured on the Wiz, but there’s actually plenty to like here still. Nene and Dudley are gone and so is the low lottery pick, and the team was crushed by injuries this year. Beal is a restricted free agent and they pretty much have to match any offer. And maybe he turns into Eric Gordon, an injury-plagued forever what if, but it could also give them a Curry-type contract steal.
Wall is still a superstar at 20/10/5 this season and on a great deal. Gortat and Markieff are on good deals too, and Otto and Oubre are in tow. Honestly this is a much better destination for Durant than you think- the East being pretty key. Wall, Beal, Durant, Markieff, Gortat is a modern starting five and immediately the 2nd best team in the East. Can DC land a second superstar?
Ask Again Later — In Good Shape in Theory But…
6. Philadelphia 76ers
Strangely enough the Sixers are actually in an enviable position. All of that tanking hasn’t paid off yet and Hinkie is gone, 13 pages later. The Colangelos are running the show now, and all those losses are about to come to harvest.
Okafor, Embiid, Noel, and Sauce are all still developing. And they have a handful of incredible contracts for young guys R.Covington, J.Grant, H.Thompson, R.Holmes, K.Marshall, and T.McConnell. All of those guys are under contract for at least 2 more years for under $25 million. Combined.
And then there’s the war chest of draft picks. The Sixers have the best odds in history for the #1 pick thanks to Sacramento swap rights, and they are better than 50–50 to get a top-2 pick in a 2-player draft. And there’s still about a 1-in-3 chance the Sixers leave Tuesday night with their dream scenario: a top-2 pick plus the Lakers 4th or 5th pick.
They also have 1sts from Miami and OKC this year along with 8 extra 2nds over the next few years. And they own the Kings- swap rights again next year plus rights another Sacto 1st, top-10 protected in ‘18 or unprotected in ’19.
There’s nothing real here yet. There’s not even one player that’s a definite starter. But The Process seems like it’s about to pay off. The Sixers have 10 lotto tickets in tow, another 4–5 on their way this year (including Saric), and more to come. And cap space for days and a modern team and good coach.
The next step from here? Start gathering assets. Like Fran Fraschilla once said about Raptors’ Caboclo, the Sixers are two years away from being two years away. Next stop? Looking like one of the 5 teams ranked above them here.
Signs Point to Yes — Trending in the Right Direction
5. Orlando Magic
The Magic have a ton of young talent everyone likes, but it’s hard to see it all playing together effectively. Skiles just quit the team, but not before costing them a year of youth development and sending Tobias out the door for basically nothing. The one player that did take a step forward this year was Fournier, and he’s a restricted free agent now likely about to get a huge offer that Orlando not match with a lot of other extensions coming soon.
Still, there’s Vucevic on an excellent 3-year deal. Add in Oladipo, Gordon, Elfrid, and Hezonja, all still young and oozing with talent. There’s that future Lakers pick from the Howard trade. And Orlando is a free agency destination with no income tax that often seems to pay off. But no one on the team knows how to shoot or play defense, and the pieces don’t fit. Something’s brewing, but they need to get the right coach and make some big decisions soon.
4. Phoenix Suns
A once-loaded Suns squad somehow gave away I.Thomas and Dragic, fired their coach, signed the wrong free agent, and blew up the team. But there’s still plenty to like. Bledsoe and Knight are on great deals, and Booker looks like a steal. In a run-and-gun league, Phoenix has a really good 3-guard rotation under contract for $32 million for 3 years. Add to that useful young players like Warren and Len, veteran swing Tucker, maybe even Chandler if he can get out of his funk from this year.
And there are picks. They should add the 4th-6th pick this summer and also have 1sts from Washington and Cleveland. They’re also still owed two future 1sts from Miami, top-7 protected in ’18 or unprotected in ’19 and then a second one unprotected in ’21. Wade and Bosh will be long gone by then, and maybe one or both of those picks turn into hidden gems.
Earl Watson is an intriguing hire, especially with the guards. There’s shooting and athleticism, and the team might be one big (and better health) away from the playoffs. This would be a heckuva spot for Simmons or Ingram.
3. Denver Nuggets
The Nuggets are quietly in great shape. Gallinari, Faried, W.Chandler, and Barton are all still in their primes and on very fair contracts. They have over 10% odds of a top-2 pick with Knicks swap rights and they have Houston’s and Portland’s 1sts too. They’re also still owed a tasty looking Memphis 1st, top-5 protected the next two years and unprotected in ‘19- you saw the Grizz this year, that could get really valuable.
There are the great young players too. Mudiay struggled this year, like most rookie point guards, but still has a high ceiling and great contract. Harris and Nurkic fit the bill. And stud rookie Jokic is on one of the best 10 contracts in the league, three more years for under $5 million combined. Even with all of the above and three rookies this year, there’s still room for a max player too.
Denver is loaded with veterans, youth, and picks- assets everywhere. They look a lot like Boston before Ray Allen and Kevin Garnett. The time may be coming to cash in the chips.
It Is Decidedly So — We Got Next
2. Milwaukee Bucks
The Bucks are the future in the East- and the East is a pretty great place to be the future. In the West you still need to wait out the Ws and Thunder, beat the Spurs and Clippers mix for now, and outpace plenty of other teams coming. In the East you… pretty much just need to beat the Cavs. So how do you beat the Cavs? Well you need to start by having the athleticism and length to defend Lebron. Enter the Bucks.
This is a team built entirely around athleticism, youth, and length. And they have two potential future MVPs in Greek Freak and Jabari Parker, both under contract for a couple more years. They’ve also got underrated wing Middleton on a great deal, giving them three uber-long versatile swingmen to build around in an era when most teams would kill to have just one of those guys.
Add to that Monroe- only signed for one more year before he’ll likely opt-out, but that contract fits well with the upcoming extensions- and interesting young bigs Henson and Mi.Plumlee plus former Rookie of the Year MCW, and there’s still plenty of intrigue here even after a disappointing season. The Bucks need to figure out their identity and add shooting, and there’s a lot of development needed on both ends of the court, but Fear the Deer is coming.
1. Minnesota Timberwolves
Not a shock at #1, but that doesn’t mean the Baby Wolves aren’t interesting anyway. Minnesota has waited awhile but is set-up for big success now. Newly crowned Rookie of the Year Towns is a megastar in the making. Already you can count on one hand the number of players you’d pick before him to start a new franchise- and probably have a couple fingers to spare too. He may even have a better shot at winning an MVP in the next 5 years than Lebron.
Last year’s ROY Wiggins may also be a future superstar, especially if he can do more than score for excellent new coach Tom Thibodeau, and the sky’s the limit for wildcard LaVine. Add in the underrated Rubio and still-developing T.Jones and Bjelica. Minnesota has all six- already a competitive team- for around $37 million the next two years. Even with the onerous Pekovic and KG contracts, that still leaves room for extensions for Dieng and Bazz and plenty of capital for a much-needed stretch 4 and some veteran swing depth.
The Baby Wolves are coming, and they’re coming fast. They’ll be in the playoffs next year and could be competing for the 1-seed by 2018. Get ready.
Oh and by the way? Minnesota has about a 1-in-7 chance of jumping into the top-2 on Tuesday night and adding Simmons or Ingram too. Look out!
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