Putin had a plan. It would have worked. Macron made a total mess of it.
Vlad is not glad
Vlad’s army is running out of time.
The majority, almost 80%, of their armored vehicle supply comes from old storage. Europe’s production capacity for new products far exceeds what the Russians can produce. Despite this, we have yet to see the impact on the field because Russia is masking their shortfall by digging into their Soviet-era stockpile, while Europe’s production ramp is gradually increasing.
Lift the Russian hood, and you’ll see a hodgepodge of hastily arranged items, skillfully painted to give it the appearance of newness.
According to my estimates, if Ukraine destroys 250 tanks every month from now until December, Russia will become the first army without tanks in the middle of a battle. Forty-five-year-olds with guns are not going to win the war for them. What’s next? No Black Sea Fleet. No tanks. With enough Patriot systems and interceptors, there won’t be a Russian air force either. With Europe’s artillery production expected to hit full gear in the second half of this year, things aren’t looking good for Vlad’s army.
Putin’s days at war are numbered.
Putin probably read the memo from someone who still takes their job seriously in the Russian Ministry of Defense, while also taking a look at the significant artillery production ramp occurring in Europe.
So, he made plan.
Out of nowhere, he will surprise the world by suddenly asking for a ceasefire. He will most probably escalate things right before it, throw everything he has in his possession to make it seem like he has plenty in stock, and then scream from the rooftops that he wants peace.
He will do that right after Europe concludes its election season and around the time when the United States goes into voting. The moment he makes that pitch, his minions from around the world — read Orban, Fico, Trump, Bolsonaro, Musk, Sarkozy, and all those still hiding in the closet — will come out en masse to seize his offer.
Putin will scream from the rooftops, “Oh — I told you”, the West never wants to stop the war. They are the ones who started this. I am the one who is trying to end it. Putin, the god-loving, peace-giving angel, is being denied at the altar of global stability.
Imagine him presenting such a conundrum in the middle of October, with just two weeks until the US election. A situation like that could completely upend the US election results. The EU would have nearly completed its set of elections, with new policymakers being sworn in. The ruling party in the United Kingdom, the Tories, is gearing up for a potential wipeout this year. Although they have not scheduled their elections yet, they must conclude them before January 2025.
The second half of 2024 presents a bit of a challenge, as many democracies will undergo a transition period. The power transition period, when one administration exits and another takes its place, is a time of vulnerability for all democracies — a period that could be exploited by enemies.
Putin had a plan to exploit this. An investigative report by French magazine, Le Point, explained Putin’s strategy. This is possibly the reason why the French President chose to act now instead of later.
According to Le Point:
France has learnt of a stratagem devised by Russian eminences that could take place between the European elections and the American presidential elections, a ‘grey zone’ during which the Western camp will be in a state of complete restructuring.”
Putin would seize the opportunity to advance his pawns on the diplomatic chessboard by revealing astonishing news: a request for a ceasefire in Ukraine.
A source who spoke to Lepoint added that Putin has larger goals in mind. And in order “to achieve such a breakthrough, he needs to take a break from the fighting and reorganize his troops”.
“Asking for a ceasefire would be a way of discreetly preparing for a new offensive”.
Putin’s Ceasefire plan may have Triggered Macron into action
For a really long time, I could not put my finger on what triggered Macron’s new stance on Ukraine. He was passive for the most part of the two-year-long war. Suddenly, he thrust himself into the middle of the discussion and took control of it.
Now it all makes sense.
Putin asks for a ceasefire, while Biden is busy campaigning and struggling to fend off Trump’s attacks over his refusal to sign up for Putin’s sham peace offer, and Chancellor Scholz continues his Sholzing. This situation can go in any direction, and there is no way to know for sure.
Just the fact that we are unsure of how President Biden and Chancellor Scholz would respond to such a request from Putin should tell us how messed up our position is.
If Macron had stayed on the sidelines, the final decision to either accept or deny the peace offer would have squarely fallen into the hands of President Biden and Chancellor Scholz. With the current ruling party in the United Kingdom, the Tories, set for a wipeout, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak would have had no voice whatsoever to stop the farce from going through.
The odds of a global response similar to that following Russia’s invasion of Crimea in 2014 do seem likely.
But only if Macron had left it all in the hands of the USA and Germany. He became the fourth, but the most important spoke in the Ukrainian wheel. The way he reshaped the conversation about Ukraine and the steady ramp-up of weapons supplied from France has rallied the Baltics, Poland, and Ukraine to support him.
Macron also helped Ukraine’s cause by talking in both directions. On the one hand he very clearly defined how Ukraine’s win will look like:
“And we support Ukraine. I will tell you very simply: there will be no lasting peace without sovereignty, a return to internationally recognized borders of Ukraine, including Crimea.
But if we decided to be weak; if we decided today that we would not respond, it would be choosing defeat already. And I don’t want that. Peace does not mean the capitulation of Ukraine.
Wanting peace does not mean defeat. Wanting peace does not mean dropping Ukraine,” Macron said.
Then he balanced it by saying:
France would never initiate an offensive against Russia, and that Paris was not at war with Moscow, despite the fact that Russia had launched aggressive attacks against French interests in and outside France.
Before giving it the final and most needed touch,
“I will pick up the phone if Putin calls me. It is my responsibility and I will listen to what he offers. We need to reach a permanent, sustainable and just peace. And if Putin wants to offer something, I will listen to his offer… But the real negotiations about only Putin and Zelensky should lead the end of the war.”
And then he flipped all the way to the other end:
“Ukraine must go to the point when negotiations will be possible. But the territorial integrity of Ukraine will be a fundamental value.”
I hope you are following the President where he is going with it. Macron promised Russia a strong response for its war in Ukraine, while also telling them that he is not averse to peace. He also carefully introduced the position that whatever peace is on offer has to be acceptable to Ukraine, something that Putin will never be able to offer.
I suspect that from here on out, Macron will significantly ramp up this dual position: aggressive against Putin but with a hand stretched out for peace, albeit on Ukraine’s terms.
Putin may still go for his plan to push for a ceasefire around the US elections because things are looking extremely bleak for him. Unfortunately for him, most European nations have already rallied behind France.
Even President Zelensky’s words are getting sharper against the Biden administration’s refusal to step up in order to help Ukraine. Earlier, they used to be very silent. Now they are expressing their frustrations openly.
No one wants to talk about the Scholz administration anymore. Chancellor Scholz made a strong pitch during a groundbreaking ceremony for Rheinmetall’s new munitions factory in December of last year, Germany’s leading defense manufacturer. He asked Europe to mass-produce weapons because Europe “does not live in times of peace.” It all seems targeted at an audience of one: the media.
The entire world knows how effective German made Taurus missiles are. If the Chancellor really believes that Europe’s long-term security is in jeopardy, then why has he not placed a single order to produce Taurus missiles?
Not a single missile has been manufactured since Russia invaded Ukraine.
The production of Taurus cruise missiles in Germany has been suspended due to the lack of orders, Thomas Gottschild, Managing Director of MBDA Deutschland GmbH, the manufacturer of these missiles, said.
“It is a problem for our industry when production, as in the case with Taurus, is disrupted because our suppliers, often small and medium-sized companies, have to suspend production,” he said in an interview with the Augsburger Allgemeine newspaper.
Chancellor Scholz calls for mass-producing weapons but forgot to order the one thing that he has been under pressure to deliver for more than a year.
The American administration, as well as the German administration, has lost the trust of Europe and Ukraine. It will not be them who will have the middle seat when Putin makes a pitch for a ceasefire.
It will be the French President.
He made a total mess of Putin’s plan to mess us all up.
