Previewing and Predicting the 75th Primetime Emmy Awards
On Monday, January 12th the Academy of Television Arts and Sciences (ATAS) will announce their picks for the best that television networks and streaming services had to offer in the 2022–2023 season.
By far the most notable thing about this year’s ceremony is its timing. The ceremony was originally supposed to take place in September 2023 as is tradition. However, with the Writers Guild of America on strike from May through September and the Screen Actors Guild on stirke from July through November, Hollywood basically ground to a halt. Both guilds prohibited their members from attending industry events or promoting their work during this time, so the Emmys had to move to a future date where they could be reasonably sure the strikes would be over but not so late that it entered the fierce corridor of February and March when we have the Grammys, the Super Bowl, and the Oscars. So, they settled on mid-January. The result of this move is that some of the programs in contention aired nearly 18 months ago and the votes were cast over 5 months ago. Given the latter, it’s a bit tricky to predict the winners now as sentiment regarding certain series likely has shifted in the intervening time since votes were cast. (For example, while the buzz for all these shows was red-hot during the voting period, shows like Succession and The Bear have arguably maintained their buzz better than shows like Ted Lasso and Abbott Elementary.)
Even without a strike delay complicating matters, predicting the Emmys is usually a thankless and impossible task due to the ever-increasing amount of high quality offerings available across a number of ever-diversifying platforms. Nevertheless, prior winners, the nomination announcement in July, other award shows from earlier in the year, and the predictions of various critics and industry insiders give us some big clues about who is likely to prevail in the top categories.
Last year, the 74th Primetime Emmy Award ceremony was fairly strong in its production and produced a set of solid (if predictable and somewhat repetitive) winners. (Click here for my review of last year’s Kenan Thompson-hosted ceremony). This year’s ceremony, which will air live on Fox and be available for on demand streaming the next day on Hulu, will be held at the Peacock Theater in Downtown Los Angeles. The festivities will be hosted by actor/comedian Anthony Anderson (who has scored 11 nominations but no wins for his work as producer and star of the ABC sitcom Black-ish ). I have always found him to be a bit much at times, I have little doubt that he will inject levity and passion into the proceedings.
The Emmys have an extraordinary amount of categories, which is unsurprising given the sheer amount and variety of content that exists on television and streaming. The 26 main awards will be handed out on Sunday night’s ceremony following the Creative Arts Emmy Awards ceremonies held last weekend, during which 98(!!) awards were handed out. Although success in the less prominent, mostly technical categories presented at the Creative Arts Emmys doesn’t always translate to success in the main categories, the winners potentially hold some additional information about where voters’ passions lie. Leading the field with a whopping 8 awards last weekend was the HBO video game adaptation The Last of Us. Other big winners included Fx’s docuseries Welcome to Wrexham (5 wins), Fx/Hulu’s drama-masquerading-as-a-comedy The Bear (4 wins), Netflix’s Addams Family spin-off Wednesday (4 wins), HBO’s anthology series The White Lotus (4 wins), AppleTV+’s documentary film Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie (4 wins), Netflix’s limited series Beef (3 wins), and Disney+’s reality competition series Dancing with the Stars (3 wins). Additionally, the following series nominated in the top categories scored Creative Arts Emmy wins: AppleTV+’s Ted Lasso, NBC’s Saturday Night Live, Prime Video’s The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel, MTV’s RuPaul’s Drag Race, Prime Video’s Daisy Jones & The Six, Peacock’s Poker Face, Hulu’s Only Murders in the Building, AppleTV+’s Black Bird, HBO’s House of the Dragon, HBO’s A Black Lady Sketch Show, and HBO’s Barry.
Perhaps boding well for the main show, the winners of the often problematic guest acting categories were hard to argue with. Nick Offerman and Storm Reid picked up the Emmys for Guest Actor and Guest Actress in a Drama Series, respectively, for their deeply moving turns on HBO’s The Last of Us while Sam Richardson picked up Guest Actor in a Comedy for his outrageous and scene-stealing turn on AppleTV+’s Ted Lasso and Judith Light picked up the Emmys for Guest Actress in a Comedy for her riveting star turn on an installment of Peacock’s Poker Face. (The latter was notable for giving Daytime Emmy-winning television legend Light her first Primetime Emmy win after 4 nominations and for being the first Emmy ever received by the NBC/Universal streaming service Peacock.)
Last year, I correctly predicted 21 of the 25 winners (84%) — my most accurate year ever. I’m not quite sure I will have the same success in a year where the comedy categories in particular are so competitive, but here goes nothing! Without further ado, here are my predictions in all 26 major categories that will be handed out on the telecast.
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WINNER PREDICTIONS — DRAMA
Outstanding Drama Series: Despite being a particularly strong lineup of 8 well-made and popular shows, I suspect this will be one of the easiest categories to predict this year. Not only did the 4th and final season of HBO’s Succession have the internet abuzz and critics raving, but its recent near-sweep of the Golden Globes and its dominant showing at the SAG nominations reveal that passion for the series remains strong despite its finale airing nearly 8 months ago. (Also, its field-leading 27 Emmy nominations this year suggest the Television Academy really, really loved it.) If there is a show that can beat it, I suspect it is the 1st season of fellow HBO series The Last of Us. The series satisfied fans of the source video game and wowed critics and general audiences. It scored a mightily impressive 24 nominations this year and already won a rather remarkable 8 trophies at the Creative Arts Emmys ceremony last weekend. A surprising, but not impossible, outcome would be that the 2nd season of HBO’s anthology series The White Lotus triumphs. The series has an impresive 23 nominations and swept the Limited Series category last year. (The show was forced to move from Limited Series to Drama Series because the second installment had a couple of returning characters and thus became ineligible for Limited Series.) The other contenders don’t have much of a shot — the 5th season of Netflix’s The Crown and the 2nd season of Showtime’s Yellowjackets had much weaker receptions than their prior seasons; the 1st season of House of the Dragon satified many fans of its parent series Game of Thrones but has yet to attain anywhere near the level of critical adoration or mass appeal of that series; Disney+’s dark Star Wars series Andor was a delightful inclusion, but unlikely to gain mass support; and AMC’s long-running Better Call Saul feels like the epitome of being “always a bridesmaid, never a bride.” (The series has never won a major Emmy despite dozens of nominations over its run.) Predicted Winner: Succession Most Likely to Upset: The Last of Us My Preference: The Last of Us
Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series: This category also feels pretty much like a done deal to me. Sarah Snook’s performance was always a highlight of Succession, but her performance in the final season was her best yet as she moved more into the center of the storytelling and went through profound emotional upheaval. (Note: She has been nominated twice before in the Supporting Actress category, but moved to Lead this year.) I suspect her closest competition is young Bella Ramsey, who co-anchored The Last of Us with intensity and heartbreak. As for the other candidates — the brilliant and Emmy worthy performances of Melanie Lynskey and Elisabeth Moss will likely be overlooked due to the lukewarm reception of the most recent seasons of their series Yellowjackets and Hulu’s The Handmaid’s Tale, respectively, and the series Keri Russell and Sharon Horgan are nominated for (Netflix’s The Diplomat and AppleTV+’s Bad Sisters, respectively) did not show up in many other major categories, indicating a lack of overall support. Predicted Winner: Sarah Snook, Succession Most Likely to Upset: Bella Ramsey, The Last of Us My Preference: Elisabeth Moss, The Handmaid’s Tale
Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series: This category is a bit challenging to predict because while it seems likely that it will go to one of the stars of Succession, it is not clear which one. Jeremy Strong gave a profoundly impressive performance on the final season, but he’s won before and his character became increasingly pathetic and unlikeable in the final episodes. Brian Cox is overdue for an Emmy and was ferocious as always but his character exits the series very early on in the season and many will find his nomination in Lead Actor a head-scratcher. I suspect it will go to Kieran Culkin (who, like his co-star Sarah Snook, moved from Supporting to Lead this year due to an increase in prominence for his character). He had the most acclaimed turn of the 3 this year, is widely liked, and has never won. However, I suspect that if Culkin loses, he is most likely to lose not to Strong or Cox but to Pedro Pascal, who has so much good will for his star turns in The Last of Us (which he is nominated for here), Disney+’s The Mandalorian, and HBO’s Game of Thrones. It just seems like a matter of time before he gets major Emmy love and if the Succession boys split votes, it could open the door to a surprise. The other nominees are sadly likely to be also-rans — Jeff Bridges was great in Fx’s The Old Man, but he nor the series have the buzz required to triumph here and, as deserving as he is, it seems unlikely Bob Odenkirk will finally win this year given the fact that Better Call Saul has never picked up a major trophy and faces such stiff competition. Predicted Winner: Kieran Culkin, Succession Most Likely to Upset: Pedro Pascal, The Last of Us My Preference: Kieran Culkin, Succession
Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series: It seems highly likely to me that Jennifer Coolidge will win her 2nd consecutive trophy for her turn on The White Lotus. (She won the corresponding Limited Series category for the 1st season.) Her acclaimed performance continues to be talked about and Coolidge’s later-career surge has been one of the Industry’s brightest stories over the last few years. However, she faces stiff competition from her co-stars Aubrey Plaza (who is my personal pick for her revelatory dramatic work), Meghann Fahy (who had unforgettably affecting momentss), Simona Tabasco, and Sabrina Impacciatore. I suspect with 5 actresses from the same show nominated in this category, though, Coolidge may be vulnerable to someone not on the series. Any of the other 3 could make for interesting upsets: Rhea Seehorn (who has scored remarkable acclaim for years on Better Call Saul but never triumphed here), Elizabeth Debicki (whose pitch-perfect performance on Netflix’s The Crown saved an otherwise dim 5th season), and J. Smith-Cameron (who made the most of her limited screentime on the final season of Succession). Even though I think it would be a frustrating win due to her limited material in the final season, I think Smith-Cameron could very well take it as the Academy has shown that they are open to complete sweeps and this is the only category Succession isn’t the frontrunner in. (Sweeps of all 7 major categories were unheard of until Schitt’s Creek achieved it in Comedy for the show’s final season and The Crown achieved it in Drama for the show’s 5th season.) Predicted Winner: Jennifer Coolidge, The White Lotus Most Likely to Upset: J. Smith-Cameron, Succession My Preference: Aubrey Plaza, The White Lotus
Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series: Matthew Macfadyen’s mesmerizing and nuanced turn on Succession seems destined to result in a repeat win here. I expect that he’s far ahead of his co-nominees and a clear winner. In fact, it’s hard to determine who the runner up is. He is up against 3 of his co-stars — Alan Ruck, who plays his aspiring politican brother-in-law; Nicholas Braun, who provides comic relief as his partner in crime; and Alexander Skarsgard who commanded attention as an adversary for the Roy family. I think Skarsgard had the meatiest material of the 3 and is the most likely to upset. The 4 other nominees all come from The White Lotus — F. Murray Abraham, Will Sharpe, Theo James, and Michael Imperioli. Although they were all strong, I have trouble seeing any one of them garnering enough support to triumph. (After all, The White Lotus’s greatest asset is the profound complexities of its female characters.) Predicted Winner: Matthew Macfadyen, Succession Most Likely to Upset: Alexander Skarsgard, Succession My Preference: Matthew Macfadyen, Succession
Outstanding Writing in a Drama Series: The dramatic writing and directing Emmys are particularly hard to predict this year because they both feature two of the best episodes of dramatic television in recent year facing off — Succession’s game-changing, nerve-wracking tragedy “Connor’s Wedding” and The Last of Us’s wholly unexpected and profoundly moving gay postapocalyptic love story “Long, Long Time.” The Last of Us’s strong showing at the Creative Arts Emmys and the widespread love for this episode could tip to a win, but I have trouble imagining that the Academy won’t go gaga for Succession and include a win here in its sweep. The only other conceivable contender is The White Lotus. That means that the nominated episodes of Andor, Bad Sisters, and Better Call Saul (which scored two nominations here) have little shot. Predicted Winner: Succession (“Connor’s Wedding”) Most Likely to Upset: The Last of Us (“Long, Long Time”) My Preference: The Last of Us (“Long, Long Time”)
Outstanding Directing in a Drama Series: I am using the same logic here as I do for the writing category. The only difference here is that whereas Succession only has one entry in writing, it has 3 here. So, if Succession-loving voters are split about which episode to pick, that could clear the way for The Last of Us to come out ahead. But, I still think Succession takes it. That means The White Lotus, Andor, and Bad Sisters have little to no shot. Predicted Winner: Succession (“Connor’s Wedding”) Most Likely to Upset: The Last of Us (“Long, Long Time”) My Preference: Succession (“Connor’s Wedding”)
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WINNER PREDICTIONS — COMEDY
Outstanding Comedy Series: Whereas I find the Drama Series Emmy the easiest to predict, I find the Comedy Series Emmy the hardest to predict. Common wisdom would say that AppleTV+’s Ted Lasso’s 3rd (and maybe final?) season should sweep. After all, the Television Academy has demonstrated an over-the-top adoration of the series. (In its first 2 seasons, it amassed more major Emmy wins than the following classic series did in their entire runs — Seinfeld, Friends, The Cosby Show, Arrested Development, Sex and the City, Roseanne, and The Office). But critics and audiences did not warm to the 3rd season nearly as much as the first 2. Plus, it has arguably harder competition than it did before, with ABC’s Abbott Elementary hitting new heights in its 2nd season and the breakout of Fx/Hulu’s The Bear. The inclusion of the latter here is a bit frustrating for me. I think The Bear is brilliant television, but its 1st season was the antithesis of a comedy. It oscillated between profound tragedy and nerve-wracking tension and garnered less laughs per episode than most of the Drama Series nominees. Nevertheless, I expect that voters will forgive the bizarre category placement and give it to The Bear, especially since it had just released its even more highly acclaimed 2nd season during the voting period. Some have suggested that Amazon Freevee’s Jury Duty could upset, but I do not see it. Although it had a clever conceit and was entertaining, the faux reality series doesn’t seem to me to have nearly the substance that voters look for in this category. As for the other nominees — HBO’s Barry and Prime Video’s The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel will sadly be also-rans for their very strong final seasons; Hulu’s brilliant and star-studded Only Murders in the Building will continue to be overlooked; and Netflix’s over-nominated Wednesday will be at the end of the pack. Predicted Winner: The Bear Most Likely to Upset: Ted Lasso My Preference: Abbott Elementary
Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series: This is a fascinating category in which there is no clear frontrunner. Jenna Ortega is a red-hot young actress but I sincerely doubt the teen-focused Addams Family-spinoff Wednesday will have the wide support of voters. Natasha Lyonne is well liked and gives a caustic performance as a modern day Columbo in Peacock’s Poker Face, but the role isn’t the type that usually wins Emmys (and this is the first ever major nomination for the streaming service). Rachel Brosnahan could win a 2nd Emmy for her titular role as Mrs. Maisel, and she would deserve it, but I have a feeling voters are over the series, which dropped its pilot nearly 7 years ago. That leaves two very different performances in two very different shows. There’s Christina Applegate, a beloved actress who has a previous Emmy for her guest turn on Friends, and Quinta Brunson, the star/writer/producer/co-creator of Abbott Elementary. In addition to being worthy winners, both would be emotional ones. The 3rd and final season of Netflix’s Dead to Me had to be delayed and modified to accommodte Applegate’s heartbreaking battle with multiple sclerosis, while a win for Brunson would make her just the 2nd woman of color ever to win her category (after Isabel Sanford’s win for The Jeffersons in 1981). I think Brunson will make history, but Applegate and Brosnahan could prevent her from doing so. Predicted Winner: Quinta Brunson, Abbott Elementary Most Likely to Upset: Christina Applegate, Dead to Me My Preference: Rachel Brosnahan, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series: Although I think Ted Lasso could defeat The Bear for the top award, I think Jeremy Allen White’s win here is secured. Yes, the insanely strong love folks have for Sudeikis’s turn could give him a 3rd consecutive win, but White has won nearly every award he’s been nominated for and has deafening buzz. As great as they are, previous winner Bill Hader, comedy legend Martin Short, and the always-reliable Jason Segel have little shot for their turns in Barry, Only Murders in the Building, and AppleTV+’s Shriking, respectively. Predicted Winner: Jeremy Allen White, The Bear Most Likely to Upset: Jason Sudeikis, Ted Lasso My Preference: Martin Short, Only Murders in the Building
Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series: Another incredibly tough category to predict, I could see 5 of the 7 nominees winning. (Sorry to Ted Lasso’s Juno Temple and Shrinking’s Jessica Williams!) Alex Borstein did some of the best work of the series — and her career — in the final season of Mrs. Maisel. Hannah Waddingham continued to bring gravitas, wit, and grace to Ted Lasso even when the writing failed her. Ayo Edebiri broke out in a huge way with her nuanced and authentic turn in The Bear. And last year’s winner Sheryl Lee Ralph and Janelle James continued to be the highlights of Abbott Elementary’s sterling ensemble. I give Ralph the slight edge to repeat, but I suspect Edebiri will be close on her heels and that this category is ripe for a surprise. Predicted Winner: Sheryl Lee Ralph, Abbott Elementary Most Likely to Upset: Ayo Edebiri, The Bear My Preference: Janelle James, Abbott Elementary
Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series: Although Sudeikis and Waddingham are vulnerable, Brett Goldstein seems like a strong bet to threepeat for his iconic turn as Roy Kent on Ted Lasso. I suspect his strongest competition will come from Tyler James Williams, whose character grew by leaps and bounds on the 2nd season of Abbott Elementary. However, voters could also give James Marsden a trophy for his self-effacing turn as himself in Jury Duty or Ebon Moss-Bachrach one for his profoundly skilled (and profoundly unlikeable) turn on The Bear. I suspect that despite their strong turns, Ted Lasso’s Phil Dunster and Barry’s Henry Winkler and Anthony Carrigan will be also-rans. Predicted Winner: Brett Goldstein, Ted Lasso Most Likely to Upset: Tyler James Williams, Abbott Elementary My Preference: Tyler James Williams, Abbott Elementary
Outstanding Writing in a Comedy Series: When I watched the opening 10 minutes of the 1st season finale of The Bear, I said to myself, “Well there goes anyone else’s chances of winning the writing Emmy.” And I stick by it. Ted Lasso’s lackluster 3rd season finale could take the win, but I see little shot for the nominated episodes of Barry, Jury Duty, Only Murders in the Building, and Max’s The Other Two. Predicted Winner: The Bear (“The System”) Most Likely to Upset: Ted Lasso (“So Long, Farewell”) My Preference: Only Murders in the Building (“I Know Who Did It”)
Outstanding Directing in a Comedy Series: Similarly to my thoughts on the 1st season finale of The Bear (above), when I watched the penultimate episode of the 1st season, I similarly thought, “Well, there goes anyone else’s changes of winning the directing Emmy.” The episode is a pressure cooker of explosive tension and dserves to win here. As a result, I think it will steamroll over the finales of Ted Lasso, Mrs. Maisel, and Barry as well as the nominated episodes of Wednesday (despite the big name director it has in film legend Tim Burton) and BET+’s The Ms. Pat Show (the inclusion of which is as surprising as it was last year). Predicted Winner: The Bear (“Review”) Most Likely to Upset: Ted Lasso (“So Long, Farewell”) My Preference: The Bear (“Review”)
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WINNER PREDICTIONS — LIMITED SERIES
Outstanding Limited Series: I think there’s a clear winner here in Netflix’s buzz-y, acclaimed, and masterful Beef. Hulu’s Fleishman Is in Trouble and Netflix’s Dahmer seem to have the widespread support to be worthy challengers, but I don’t see an upset happening. The other two nominees — Prime Video’s Daisy Jones & the Six and Disney+’s Obi-Wan Kenobi feel a bit like filler nominees to me (although I have nothing against either series). Predicted Winner: Beef Most Likely to Upset: Dahmer — Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story My Preference: Beef
Outstanding Lead Actress in a Limited Series or Made-for-Television Movie: Stand-up comedian Ali Wong’s brilliant dramatic turn in Beef was commanding and revelatory. I think she has the clear leg up here. If she is defeated, I suspect it will be by recent Oscar-winner Jessica Chastain’s turn as country music legend Tammy Wynette in Showtime’s George & Tammy, but that series missing out on nominations for Outstanding Limited Series, writing, and directing has me doubtful. As for the rest, Dominique Fishback turn in Prime Video’s Swarm would make an inspired win, but I suspect she has little shot. The same goes for Fleishman’s Lizzy Caplan, Daisy Jones & the Six’s Riley Keough, and Hulu’s Tiny Beautiful Thing’s Kathryn Hahn. Predicted Winner: Ali Wong, Beef Most Likely to Upset: Jessica Chastain, George and Tommy My Preference: Ali Wong, Beef
Outstanding Lead Actor in a Limited Series or Made-for-Television Movie: Recent Oscar nominee Steven Yeun (Minari) gave such an authentic, raw, and moving performance in Beef, that it is hard to imagine voters not feting him. However, awards voters do love biopics and Ryan Murphy, so Evan Peters could score his 2nd Emmy for his turn as serial killer Jeffrey Dahmer in Monster. It would be absolutely delightful to see Harry Potter himself Daniel Radcliffe triumph for his balls-to-the-wall performance as comic musician “Weird Al” Yankovic in the Roku Channel’s Weird: The Al Yankovic Story. (And the film’s win for Outstanding Made-for-Television Movie last week suggest it has support, so it’s not outside the realm of responsibilty.) However, I suspect he will be an also-ran, as will Kumail Nanjiani for Hulu’s Welcome to Chippendale’s, Michael Shannon for George & Tammy, and Taron Egerton for AppleTV+’s surprisingly under-nominated Black Bird. Predicted Winner: Steven Yeun, Beef Most Likely to Upset: Evan Peters, Dahmer — Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story My Preference: Steven Yuen, Beef
Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Limited Series or Made-for-Television Movie: The powerhouse dramatic performance of Niecy Nash-Betts, a brilliant comedienne who has entertained on shows like Reno 911! for decadeds, has been the frontrunner since Monster premiered. I have no reason to suspect she won’t take the trophy. If she has a strong competitor, it is most likely to be Fleishman’s Claire Danes, who has scored Emmy nominations and wins for shows like My So-Called Life and Homeland and the HBO film Temple Grandin, or Beef’s Maria Bello, who has never been nominated for an Emmy or an Oscar despite a remarkably impressive list of acting credits. I suspect that the rest have little shot — Annaleigh Ashford and Juliette Lewis for Chippendales, Camila Monroe for Daisy Jones, and Merritt Wever for Tiny Beautiful Things. Predicted Winner: Niecy Nash-Betts, Dahmer — Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story Most Likely to Upset: Claire Danes, Fleishman is in Trouble My Preference: Niecy Nash, Dahmer — Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story
Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Limited Series or Made-for-Television Movie: Although I was very surprised that Black Bird failed to make it into Outstanding Limited Series, writing, or directing, I do think it is the show to beat here. Paul Walter Hauser’s brilliant, understated turn as a likely serial killer won raves and his co-star Ray Liotta’s heartbreaking turn as a dying father got renewed attention when he sadly passed away. I give Hauser the slight edge, but a posthumous win for Liotta is certainly possible and would be hard to argue with. Other strong possibilities are 2-time Oscar nominee Richard Jenkins for Dahmer and Young Manzino for Beef. I suspect that Beef’s Joseph Lee, Max’s Love & Death’s Jesse Plemmons, and Chippendale’s Murray Barlett have little shot. Predicted Winner: Paul Walter Hauser, Black Bird Most Likely to Upset: Ray Liotta, Black Bird My Preference: Paul Walter Hauser, Black Bird
Outstanding Writing in a Limited Series or Made-for-Television Movie: Beef creator Lee Sung Jin seems the clear frontrunner for his work on the premiere episode. I suspect that his closest competitor is Fleishman, but an out-of-left-field surprise could occur here given the eclectic lineup that also includes LGBT rom-com Fire Island (Hulu), the “Weird Al” Yankovic biopic, satirical horror series Swarm, and sci-fi/horror Predator prequel Prey. Predicted Winner: Beef Most Likely to Upset: Fleishman is in Trouble My Preference: Beef
Outstanding Directing in a Limited Series or Made-for-Television Movie: Although I wasn’t completely won over by all the creative choices made in the finale of Beef, I suspect voters will award the show’s creator again here. The award could also go to the show’s (arguably superior) penultimate episode or one of Dahmer’s nominated episodes (with the leg-up going to the one directed by 2-time Emmy winning TV directing legend Paris Barclay). I suspect that Prey and Fleishman will be also-rans. Winner: Beef (“Figures of Light”) Most Likely to Upset: Dahmer — Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story (“Silenced”) My Preference: Beef (“The Great Fabricator”)
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WINNER PREDICTIONS — REALITY AND VARIETY
Outstanding Competition Program: Will it be 4-time past winner RuPaul’s Drag Race (MTV) or 10-time past winner The Amazing Race (CBS)? My guess is Drag Race but I also find a bit hard to care given how repetitive this category is and how little I care for reality television. Other nominees are Top Chef (Bravo), Survivor (CBS), and The Voice (NBC). Predicted Winner: RuPaul’s Drag Race Most Likely to Upset: The Amazing Race My Preference: RuPaul’s Drag Race
Outstanding Talk Series: With a category shake-up that kicked Last Week Tonight with John Oliver over to another category to face off against Saturday Night Live, this one is up for grabs. I say it will go to The Late Show, with The Daily Show hot on its heels. Predicted Winner: The Late Show with Stephen Colbert Most Likely to Upset: The Daily Show with Trevor Noah My Preference: The Late Show with Stephen Colbert
Outstanding Scripted Variety Series: Last Week Tonight and Saturday Night Live have long dominated the Emmys, but they have never had to face off before until the recent category shakeup for Talk and Variety series. I suspect the more substantive Last Week gets the edge but it is never wise to bet against SNL, the most awarded show in Emmy history. Predicted Winner: Last Week Tonight with John Oliver Most Likely to Upset: Saturday Night Live My Preference: A Black Lady Sketch Show
Outstanding Variety Special (Live): It’s really anyone’s guess, but I’m predicting Elton John’s farewell concert to beat out Rihanna’s Super Bowl Halftime Show, Chris Rock’s stand-up special, and a pair of other awards shows — The Tonys and the Oscars. Predicted Winer: Elton John Live: Farewell from Dodger Stadium Predicted Winner: Tony Awards My Preference: The Oscars
Outstanding Writing for a Variety Series: The team from Last Week Tonight feels like the obvious front-runner, but, as I said above, never count out SNL. Predicted Winner: Last Week Tonight with John Oliver Most Likely to Upset: Saturday Night Live My Preference: Last Week Tonight with John Oliver
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Check back on Tuesday for a recap of this year’s ceremony and a reflection on the winners
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