[Opinion] Why is the Kremlin’s existential fear of social disintegration and revolution related to…

Summary

The article discusses the Kremlin's fear of social disintegration and revolution in relation to Ukraine, sparked by a conversation on Medium about Vladislav Surkov's prediction of Ukraine's disintegration by 2024.

Abstract

The author of the opinion piece was inspired by Anton Krutikov's article on Medium, which discussed Vladislav Surkov's prediction that 2024 would see the disintegration of Ukraine. The author expresses a deep concern over the existential fear within the Kremlin regarding potential social upheaval and revolution linked to Ukraine. This fear is contextualized within the broader discussion involving the Medium community, including responses from Krutikov and Sylvie Coachypno, who provide historical insights. The author reflects on the complex relationship between Russia and Ukraine, emphasizing the deep societal ties that transcend political ideologies. The piece also touches on the globalized nature of the conflict, the United States' military support for Ukraine, and the EU's economic sanctions against Russia, which contribute to the escalating tensions and strategic considerations for the future.

Opinions

The author was taken aback by the discussion initiated by their comment on Anton Krutikov's article, indicating a personal investment in understanding the intricate geopolitical dynamics.
The author believes that the stigma surrounding pro-Russia or pro-Western sentiments in Ukraine will persist beyond the current conflict due to the extensive integration of Russian and Ukrainian societies through marriage, business, and politics.
The author perceives Russia's invasion of Ukraine as an attempt to assert dominance and instill a sense of helplessness in Ukraine, while also expressing concern over Russia's potential future plans given the resources committed to the war.
The author acknowledges the support provided to Ukraine by the United States and the European Union, highlighting the international dimensions of the conflict and the collective pressure being applied to Russia.
The author is uncertain about the future outcomes of the war but notes the high emotions and engagement the topic generates within the Medium community and beyond, as evidenced by the comments and interactions on related articles.

I highlighted one of his assertions about Vladislav Surkov. See it below:

Along with the highlight I made this comment:

“Wow. I don’t even know how to respond to this.”

I was surprised at how my desperate plea for knowledge and understanding led to a bigger discussion on this topic from the Medium community. Starting with the writer, Anton Krutikov, himself, here’s what he wrote in response to my remark:

And then Sylvie Coachypno chimed in with her own response, which took the discussion to new place. Find the full response about the historical context below:

Both of the two comments above make me think deeply about the subject of international politics. In the context of the United States’ role in the Ukraine war, there’s clearly a lot questions surrounding the stigma of being either pro-Russia or pro-Western in Ukraine.

My opinion is that this stigma will continue to exist among Ukrainian people, regardless of the war’s outcome, because the ties between Russia and Ukraine extend beyond the Cold War. We are talking about two societies that have integrated with each other extensively: through marriage, business and politics. Are the three mutually exclusive?

I think not. We are living in a more globalized world, and perhaps Russia’s invasion is an attempt to make Ukraine believe that it is powerless in the face of its aggressor. But, the United States has come to their aide militarily, while the EU sanctions have added extra economic pressure, so Russia has to commit all of its resources to this war effort, which frightens me to think of what they might be planning in war room for the future.

I don’t know what’s going to happen next, but the feelings on this subject are running high, as evidenced by the comments I shared above from another Medium writer’s article about the war in Ukraine.

Read the full article from Anton Krutikov: Vladislav Surkov: 2024 Will be the Year of Ukraine’s Disintegration. As of this publication time, it already has 897 claps and 6 comments.

If you like my opinion on current affairs, check out some of the previous opinions I wrote for [The Weekend Brief] newsletter:

[Opinion] Why is the Kremlin’s existential fear of social disintegration and revolution related to Ukraine?

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