[Opinion] The effect Trump had on the world will leave a long-lasting impact on international politics!
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The latest election controvery in The Netherlands makes me think deeply about the subject of international politics. In the context of the United States’ role in the Ukraine war, there’s clearly a lot questions surrounding the stigma of being either pro-Russia or pro-Western in the European Union.
My opinion is that this stigma will continue to exist among Ukrainian people, regardless of the war’s outcome, because the ties between Russia and Ukraine extend beyond the Cold War. We are talking about two societies that have integrated with each other extensively: through marriage, business and politics. Are the three mutually exclusive?
I am a loyal follower of Geopolitical Futures and its diverse team of writers, analysts and forecasters.
George Friedman is founder of Geopolitical Futures and author of many books on geopolitics. His latest writing about the changing dynamics of the EU political situation is insightful and a little controversial. Have a look at it here.
Now, here are my thoughts about the article.
“Governments in marginal member states in the European Union, such as Hungary, have taken similar stances in the past (particularly on immigration), but the Netherlands is a founding member of the EU and despite its small size, it has always been at the center of shaping and representing the bloc’s values. In times of economic disparity and division, the willingness of key EU members to stand together to defend certain core moral principles has held the bloc together.”
I think it is interesting that, in this discussion about the political situation of The Netherlands, that we are talking about Hungary at the same time. But it speaks to the key point that Friedman is talking about here: the integrity of the EU is being challenged by radical changes by domestic politics. In the aftermath of this election in The Netherlands, are we going to start talking about new alliances within the EU? A new era of the EU? It seems that the effect Trump had on the world will leave a long-lasting impact on international politics.
“In many ways, the Netherlands has been a core nation in the European Union. Years ago when I lived in the Netherlands, it was assumed — and I believed it true — that the country exemplified how a European nation should be (especially toward NATO).”
I believe that Friedman makes another valuable point here about the EU bloc. NATO is taking up more of the EU’s foreign policy agenda, which is relevant to Trump again, since the Trump Administration was so forthright is demanding European countries to give more financial support to NATO. In fact, this part of the agenda will give members of the opposition within the EU a reason to blame for the bloc’s economic concerns. As more money goes toward NATO, and other concerns for defense and security cooperation, then less funds will go toward social programs in the EU.
“I do know a little about demographics, particularly that the developed world is facing a worsening shortage of workers. Among the options we have are to force 80-year-olds to do menial labor, invent cost-effective robotic substitutes for humans, or bring in foreign workers.”
This is a bold statement touching on many aspects of US and EU politics. There’s a growing concern about the workers of the future — i.e. who will do the work? For what price? Generally speaking, citizens of the US and EU will view migrant workers as the ones doing jobs that require less attention of salary contributions, but that’s simply not the case anymore. More migrant workers are going to start doing jobs of the future. The digital transformation is taking hold of the global economy, and I think that more of the immigrations policies must reflect changes to the job structures and salary expecations. This is going to be a top concern for EU integration, and it is already forming part of the defense and security cooperation agenda in the EU, since countries like Hungary are using immigration as a way to change the foreign policy agenda around the war in Ukraine.
Read George Friedman’s article: A shift in the EU.
If you like my opinion on current affairs, check out some of the previous opinions I wrote for [The Weekend Brief] newsletter about Israel-Hamas war and the US-China meeting in San Francisco below:
