NFL Week 9 Picks against the Spread

New England at Baltimore is the Sunday night game of the week, but the Seahawks, Packers, and Cowboys are best bets

REMEMBER WHEN IT FELT LIKE THE NFC WAS DOMINATING THE NFL, AND THE AFC WAS JUST ALONG FOR THE RIDE? That’s not the case anymore. NFC teams like the Eagles, Bears, Cowboys, and Rams have disappointed while the Colts, Ravens, and Texans are picking up steam. Suddenly our Week 9 NFL Power Rankings see six of the top 10 spots taken by AFC teams as the conference fights back.

Week 9 is a big one in the AFC. It’ll tell us a lot about the AFC North with a Sunday morning Texans-Jaguars game you can actually get up for with that extra hour of Daylight Savings sleep, and we’ll learn a lot about the Patriots and Ravens too on Sunday night. It’s one of those 14-hour days of football, so buckle up for a full day on your couch.

We bounced back at 9–6 ATS last week and are now back to .500 on the season and on best bets, so let’s keep things moving in the right direction…

WEEK 9 POWER RANKINGS

TIER I — THERE’S TWO AT THE TOP NOW

1. New England Patriots 8–0 (1) 2. San Francisco 49ers 7–0 (2)

TIER II — THE NFC HEAVYWEIGHTS

3. New Orleans Saints 7–1 (3) 4. Green Bay Packers 7–1 (4) 5. Minnesota Vikings 6–2 (5)

TIER III — THE AFC TEAMS RISING TO THE TOP

6. Kansas City Chiefs 5–3 (7) 7. Baltimore Ravens 5–2 (9) 8. Indianapolis Colts 5–2 (6) 9. Houston Texans 5–3 (10) 10. Buffalo Bills 5–2 (8)

TIER IV — NOT ENOUGH SPOTS AT THE NFC TABLE

11. Seattle Seahawks 6–2 (12) 12. Dallas Cowboys 4–3 (11) 13. Los Angeles Rams 5–3 (13) 14. Philadelphia Eagles 4–4 (16) 15. Carolina Panthers 4–3 (14)

TIER V — SHOCKINGLY COMPETENT

16. Jacksonville Jaguars 4–4 (15) 17. Detroit Lions 3–3–1 (19) 18. Pittsburgh Steelers 3–4 (24) 19. Arizona Cardinals 3–4–1 (18) 20. Tennessee Titans 4–4 (23) 21. Oakland Raiders 3–4 (21)

TIER VI — JUST NOT THEIR YEAR

22. Los Angeles Chargers 3–5 (25) 23. Chicago Bears 3–4 (20) 24. Cleveland Browns 2–5 (17) 25. Denver Broncos 2–6 (27)

TIER VII — AT LEAST THEY’RE TRYING

26. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2–5 (22) 27. New York Giants 2–6 (26) 28. Washington Haskins 1–7 (30) 29. New York Jets 1–6 (28)

TIER VIII — THE FISH TANK

30. Atlanta Falcons 1–7 (29) 31. Cincinnati Bengals 0–8 (31) 32. Miami Dolphins 0–7 (32)

THURSDAY NIGHT

San Francisco -10 at Arizona

I think I’m somehow like 7–1 on Thursday night games now, so maybe I should just play the first one each week and sit the rest out.

THE TOILET BOWL

Miami +3 vs New York Jets

It’s not like there’s an Andrew Luck in the draft the Dolphins just have to grab at number one. The Fish Tank is progressing just fine, and Miami can pick first or third without much consequence. The Dolphins have been more terrible than historically awful with Ryan Fitzpatrick. They’ve covered three in a row, they’re at home against a 1–6 team, and they’ve won five of six against the Jets. Upset special?!

THE QUARTERBACK DEBUTS

Denver +4 vs Cleveland

You’ll never believe this, but Joe Flacco is injured and out for the season. The Broncos are debuting some dude named Allen at quarterback. Is it Josh Allen? Kyle Allen? Keenan Allen? Allen Robinson? Marcus Allen? The better question: does it matter? The Browns had a full bye week to get their house in order and still looked like they’d never seen professional coaching. Sorry, not taking Cleveland as a road favorite against a competent defense, no matter who Brandon Allen is.

Buffalo -10 vs Washington

On the one hand, Buffalo looked awful against Philly and ranks only 25th in DVOA, despite their 5–2 record. On the other hand, Dwayne Haskins is making his first start on the road against a good defense, and this is not going to go well for him. This is the lowest over/under of the week at 37, but it doesn’t matter. Washington has gone under in five straight games, and they’ll be lucky to hit double digits in this one.

LOSER GOES HOME

Carolina -3.5 vs Tennessee

The Panthers have really hung in there without Cam Newton, but it’s starting to smell like he just might not play again this season. The Titans are playing better with Ryan Tannehill, and this looks like a close, low-scoring, defensive battle. Both teams are on the wrong side of the playoff bubble, and a loss for either might leave them too far out of the picture. Take the under.

Philadelphia -4 vs Chicago

The Eagles just took care of the Bills with ease, and isn’t Chicago just a worse version of Buffalo? Mitch Trubisky is somehow worse than Josh Allen, and the Bears defense has been worse than Buffalo’s this year. These teams entered the year as NFC favorites, but both are hanging on by a thread. I’m not sure either of them is actually good, but Philly has been beating bad teams and Chicago might just be bad.

Oakland -2 vs Detroit

Neither the Raiders nor the Lions are in anyone’s playoff picture, but they’ve both been shockingly competent professional football teams with genuinely good coaching and quarterbacks on career years. Oakland had the league’s second most efficient offense in October somehow, and Derek Carr and Matt Stafford will probably start in the Pro Bowl against each other once the first 13 quarterbacks withdraw. Jokes, but this should actually be a fascinating game, and the winner still has a path to 10 wins and a wildcard berth. Oakland’s path is far clearer in the AFC, so their win means more.

A BIG DAY IN THE AFC

Jacksonville +1.5 vs Houston (London)

This might actually be worth getting up for on Sunday morning. The AFC South remains a toss-up, and it’s starting to look like they might get one or two wildcard spots too. Houston has been the best team in the public eye, but Jacksonville has the best numbers. The Jaguars went for two and the win in Houston earlier this season in Gardner Minshew’s first start but came up short. Now the Jags are “home” in London, where they’ve won three of their last four, but the Texans have won 9 of 11 in the rivalry. I’ve been in on Minshew Mania all season. This is their chance to really throw this division up for grabs.

Indianapolis PK at Pittsburgh

Every Colts game this season has been within one score, so is 5–2 lucky, or does this team just know how to win? Pittsburgh is back to 3–4 and can throw themselves fully into the wildcard conversation with a win, and they’re quietly 4–1 against the spread without Big Ben. Gotta go with the better team in a pick ‘em, but someone keep Nick Harper safe this weekend, k?

Kansas City +5.5 vs Minnesota

This has all the makings of a Vikings dud, with Kirk Cousins laying an egg on the road against not-Patrick-Mahomes in Kansas City, where Minnesota has literally won once ever. I’m sticking with what’s in front of us, and that’s a Chiefs team that is 1–3 at home this year, down linemen on both sides of the ball, with a semi-retired quarterback and a run defense that should get gashed. If the Vikings are what they’ve looked like the last month, they should control this game. But with the line skyrocketing, I’ll pick KC to keep it close.

Baltimore +3.5 vs New England (Sunday night)

Tom Brady is 7–3 lifetime against the Ravens, but two of those losses came in the playoffs and six of the wins were by one score. Baltimore always seems to play New England tough. This is the game of the week, and it has all the makings of one of those games where Lamar Jackson makes three or four huge scramble plays, Belichick plays it close to the vest, the Ravens pull out every stop and get the win of the season, and New England saves it for the AFC semis and curb stomps a young QB they spent this week scouting. The Patriots have a historically good defense, and Belichick gets to scheme against a young, limited quarterback. If this was the playoffs, I’d be confident Belichick would find a way. In November, I think Baltimore has a shot to win or at least keep it close enough to cover.

WEEK 9 BEST BETS

Seattle -4.5 vs Tampa Bay

I don’t know how we got here, but somehow Josh Gordon’s Seahawks are best bets a third straight week. Tampa is going in the wrong direction, and Seattle has disappointed at home this year but that’s nothing Jameis Winston can’t fix. Seattle is 0–4 against the spread at home and 1–5 as favorites, so the savvy play here is Tampa, but I just can’t find a reason.

Green Bay -3 at Los Angeles Chargers

This line is so low it smells like fish. Green Bay’s offense has been on fire, and the Chargers have done nothing right all season. And don’t forget, this will basically be a home game for the Packers. It’ll be like 90% green and yellow in L.A. The money is pouring in on the Pack, so if this all leads to some sort of game-tying drive where the Chargers miss the extra point and lose by one on a clear Packers penalty left uncalled, you’ll know the fix is in.

Dallas -7 vs New York Giants (Monday)

Monday nights have been brutal lately, and don’t be fooled by this division “rivalry.” The Cowboys have owned the Giants of late, winning five in a row, and it’s usually not close. Dallas stumbled through October but had the bye week to get right, and they’re still the #1 DVOA offense at the season’s midpoint. This feels like the game they get back on everyone’s radar. ■

Last week: 9–6 Season total: 60–60–1 Best bets: 11–11–1

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