NFL week 9 picks against the spread
Why the Eagles, Saints, and Raiders are best bets in a week of awful football

It’s been a weird NFL season. The Los Angeles Rams have the best offense in the league, and the Jacksonville Jaguars have the best defense. The Ravens, Titans, and Dolphins are all at least .500 and fighting for the AFC playoffs despite being objectively terrible. The best teams in the NFL are Andy Reid’s former team and his current one. Heck, this week alone the Bills, Rams, and Lions are road favorites!!
This could be a particularly ugly week of football with three 6–2 division leaders watching from home on bye and a lot of bad games on the slate. Every prime-time match-up is terrible, and this is probably a good time for you to take an NFL bye week of your own. Let’s get to the picks?

The Stay Aways
Buffalo -3 at New York Jets (Thursday)
This is the first of three awful prime-time games this week, so find something else to do with your Thursday night. The Bills beat New York by nine in the opener and have won six of the last eight matchups. Buffalo can almost taste the playoffs, and the team has to be galvanized by ownership coughing up a couple draft picks to get Kelvin Benjamin and try to make a run.
Green Bay +2.5 vs Detroit (Monday)
On the one hand, Aaron Rodgers is out. On the other hand, Detroit has won exactly one of its last 23 games at Lambeau. Brett Hundley had a week to get integrated into the offense, and the Packers just ain’t losing to the Lions on a Monday night in Green Bay.
Tennessee -3 vs Baltimore
Joe Flacco is questionable. As in, questionable if he’ll be healthy enough to play, and questionable if it’ll even matter for a quarterback whose season average is 180 yards per game. Baltimore has four wins against Cincinnati, Cleveland, Oakland, and Miami — the latter two with backup quarterbacks. The Titans had a bye week to get healthy and should roll as long as they don’t make many mistakes against this defense.
San Francisco +2 vs Arizona
Drew Stanton! C.J. Beathard! It’s the NFL on FOX! San Francisco is one of the better 0–8 teams in NFL history, for whatever that’s worth. They get home games against the Cardinals and Giants the next two weeks, so this is their chance to ditch the goose egg.
BYE -3.5 vs Cleveland
The Browns have lost three times by a field goal, so that half-point hook could really get us, but it’s just hard to see them finding the right quarterback to pull this one off.

The Rams, Jaguars, and Texans are Good Now?
Los Angeles Rams -3.5 at New York Giants
The Giants are 1–6 and play worse at home. The Rams are 5–2 and have scored 27 or more in all but one game. It feels like Vegas still hasn’t caught up to the Rams being good and Giants being terrible. West coast teams traveling east tend to struggle, but the Rams should be fine coming off their bye.
Jacksonville -4.5 vs Cincinnati
The mighty Bengals offense has scored eight touchdowns in six games against not-the-Browns. This Jacksonville defense is for real, and they should pound a Cincinnati team that’s struggled to score all season. How far can the Jaguars really get with a top three defense, a rookie running back, and no quarterback to speak of? Looks like we might find out.
Houston -12.5 vs Indianapolis
The Colts have won twice, but those wins are against teams that are 0–16 combined. Indianapolis also has four losses by 14 or more points, and they’re rotting from the inside with internal strife and a team that seems to have quit on each other. Deshaun Watson has 17 touchdowns in his past four games, and there’s no reason to think he’s going to slow down now. Update: Deshaun Watson is out for the season and everything is broken and wrong. Houston didn’t even get to celebrate sports for 24 hours. Tom Savage is awful. However far the line drops for this won’t be far enough. Take Indy.

Hey Look, Three Decent Games!!
Carolina -1.5 vs Atlanta
This is a toss-up between the last two Super Bowl losers, neither of which has really been the same since their big defeat. Atlanta’s offense has yet to click this season, and Carolina’s locker room seems interesting with plenty of grumblings after the Kelvin Benjamin trade. Still, the Panthers defense is really good. They haven’t allowed a touchdown in four of eight games this season, and that might be enough.
Kansas City +2.5 at Dallas
Vegas continues to underrate the Chiefs, a team that has only two losses, one to Pittsburgh and the other on the final play in Oakland. The four Cowboys wins are against the Giants, Cards, 49ers, and Skins. Are we sure they’re good, especially without the centerpiece of their offense? It looks like Ezekiel Elliott is finally actually suspended for six games, and the timing of this may hurt more than his fantasy owners. Dallas’s upcoming stretch includes games against all three division opponents along with the Chargers, Falcons, and Chiefs. Maybe Zeke should’ve sat earlier.
Washington +8.5 at Seattle
The Seahawks have won four in a row while averaging 32 points per game, but now that the offense has finally gotten rolling, the defense has fallen behind. Seattle blew out the Giants and Colts, but all their other games have been one-score affairs. Washington’s four losses are to the Chiefs, Cowboys, and Eagles (x2). It just doesn’t feel like these teams are a touchdown apart.

Week 9 Best Bets
Philadelphia -8 vs Denver
Carson Wentz and the Eagles are sure to slow down at some point and Denver will remember how to score eventually, but we’ll wait until both teams prove otherwise. Denver is averaging 12 points per game over their last five and now they’re turning to Brock Osweiler, a solution that has never worked in the history of mankind. The Eagles have scored at least 26 in all but one game, and Denver’s stellar defense has been against the run and not the pass this year. It’s tough to see the Broncos keeping up.
New Orleans -7 vs Tampa Bay
This does feel a little trappy for the Saints considering the series history, with the last six games decided by one score. But the Bucs have been bad, and they’re even worse in the first half with just 13 points in their last four first halves combined. The Saints have won five in a row, all of them by more than seven. They always score at home, and if the Bucs fall behind early again, it’s just a question of whether they can come back through the backdoor.
Oakland -3 at Miami
The Dolphins must be one of the worst over-.500-mid-season teams in history. They’ve lost only three times but all three were shutouts, outside of a final meaningless play against the Jets. That is some sort of awful, and now they’re rushing Jay Cutler back for a home prime-time game, and when has that ever gone wrong before? This is actually the second of three straight prime-time games for Miami, proving once again that Roger Goodell hates America.
Week 8 record: 8–5 Season record: 56–60–4 Best bets: 14–10 Locks: 1–0

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