Week 9 fantasy football trick or treat

32 seconds for 32 teams — what to do with the shocking Jay Ajayi trade and Ezekiel Elliott suspension

The NFL news feed exploded Tuesday morning with news of Jay Ajayi being traded from the Miami Dolphins to the Philadelphia Eagles, and that was on the heels of Ezekiel Elliott being suspended by the Dallas Cowboys for the zillionth time this season 12 hours before. Jimmy Garoppolo is now a 49ers quarterback, Kelvin Benjamin is a Buffalo Bill, and there may be more moves to come before Tuesday afternoon’s NFL trade deadline.

So what’s it all mean for fantasy football? Is Jay Ajayi worth more or less now, and just how good can Alfred Morris or Darren McFadden be in Dallas? And what other players are buy or sell options as we pass the midpoint of the season? Let’s go around the league and take a look…

Arizona Cardinals

The Cardinals come off their bye week a lesser offense, with Drew Stanton leading the way at QB the rest of the year. Larry Fitzgerald is the only must-start in Arizona but you should consider selling high when you get an opportunity. Adrian Peterson should be picked up if he was dropped, but temper your expectations.

Atlanta Falcons

It might be time to admit that the 2016 Falcons are gone. Last year the Panthers stayed on my buy-low list all year but never really rebounded to their Super Bowl form, and there are echoes of that in Atlanta. But I’m still buying Devonta Freeman and Julio Jones, not because of 2016 but because they’re studs that have always been good. This is your best shot to get Freeman. He was out-touched by Tevin Coleman for the first time but still got his usual heavy snap load and is still a stud you want to play every week. Mohamed Sanu looks like a weekly start too, with 12/139 and a TD the last two weeks. Your Falcons are still good starters, but the 2016 ceiling is probably gone.

Baltimore Ravens

It’s pretty impressive that the Ravens can score 40 and still not offer anything useful in fantasy. Alex Collins played one more snap than Javorius Allen and had 143 yards but a lot of that was game script and running out the clock. Allen is still the better fantasy back but both are back-end options.

Buffalo Bills

LeSean McCoy had another 173 yards and got into the end zone again. Hope you traded for him when we told you to. Kelvin Benjamin is a surprise Buffalo Bill! He should start immediately and could quickly become Tyrod Taylor’s go-to guy if for no other reason than complete lack of options. That probably means around seven targets a week, a decent number of redzone opportunities, and a delicious closing schedule. His value dips overall, just because you never know how a new WR will fit in. He won’t have a bye week now but with the Bills playing Thursday, you should find another option.

Carolina Panthers

Christian McCaffrey’s value continues to wane. He had his second lowest snap percentage of the season and got only nine touches, and he’s no longer returning kicks and barely runs the ball. He’s basically a bad slot receiver. Devin Funchess has faded with 9/88 his last three games but suddenly he’s the guy in Carolina with the shocking Benjamin trade. Funchess was already at seven targets a week and could hit eight to ten most weeks now. He’s a weekly start and a must own, a high-upside WR3.

Chicago Bears

Jordan Howard might be the new #beastmode. He continues to produce big numbers even with no help around him. Tarik Cohen is still worth stashing but he’s turned into a handcuff or high-upside stash. He has one reception in four straight games and is unplayable in fantasy.

Cincinnati Bengals

Joe Mixon played a career-high 63% of the snaps but still isn’t really doing much with his touches, outside of one long 67-yard catch. But fantasy football is about opportunity and his opportunity is increasing, so he’s a solid buy. Tyler Kroft has become a usable tight end starter with 22/203 and 3 TDs in five games since Tyler Eifert was put on IR. A.J. Green won’t come cheap but he does have just 68 yards the last three weeks — one of which was a bye, of course — so this is as cheap as he gets if you’ve been eyeing him.

Cleveland Browns

Isaiah Crowell finally had a decent game with 118 yards and a TD, helped in part by an injury to Duke Johnson. Crowell is an obvious sell high based on the rest of the season, especially with the Browns heading into their bye week. Both Crowell and Johnson are worth holding onto through the bye.

Dallas Cowboys

This is probably not what most fantasy experts will tell you, but I’d consider selling high on both Alfred Morris and Darren McFadden. In order for one of these two to be really good in fantasy, you need Ezekiel Elliott to stay suspended AND one of the two to get lead back carries AND for them to still produce good numbers behind an offensive line that hasn’t been as dominant this year. That’s a lot that has to go right just for you to get four or five decent RB starts, so the hype value will probably get you more in a trade. Really good teams should consider trading for Ezekiel Elliott instead. You never know if the suspension may get overturned yet again, and he’s back for Weeks 15 and 16 just in time to win you a trophy.

Denver Broncos

It’s still ugly in Denver, averaging just 12ppg their last five games, and it’s not going to get any better with Kansas City, Philadelphia, and New England up next. There has to be a quarterback change coming soon. And still Demaryius Thomas, C.J. Anderson, and Emmanuel Sanders are all solid buy lows. Few teams in the NFL have usage as clear as Denver at RB and WR, and the Broncos can only get better. All three are safe high-floor options you can start every week.

Detroit Lions

Not much to see in Detroit. Golden Tate is a safe WR2 in PPR leagues, a consistent clear team leader in targets. Ameer Abdullah is an opportunity buy low but he might just not be good, with a 3.7ypc and under two receptions per game. Theo Riddick would be much more valuable with those touches.

Green Bay Packers

We’ll see what Brett Hundley can do coming off a bye week, and he’s worth a stash if you’re QB-needy just because of this offense, but Jordy Nelson and Davante Adams are still sell options with Rodgers out. It’s wild, but Aaron Jones might actually be the best fantasy play in Green Bay with the weak upcoming RB schedule. Do pick up Ty Montgomery if he’s been dropped. He was great early on and should finally be healthy now, so maybe he gets his job back.

Houston Texans

The corollary to selling high on Deshaun Watson and Will Fuller is that of course you should keep riding them while they’re hot. Watson looks awesome, and his value is bolstered by a 675-yard 5-TD rushing pace, but only two quarterbacks in history have matched his current 9.3% TD rate. He just can’t keep this up forever. And neither can Fuller, with an absurd 13/279/7 in four games now. He’s tied for the league lead in receiving TDs — with teammate DeAndre Hopkins of course. Houston’s entire offense will return to earth soon enough, but it sure is fun for now.

Indianapolis Colts

T.Y. Hilton has had three straight games under 30 yards and only one TD all year. He’s a buy low, but proceed with caution. He’ll have a few monster games still but there will be more duds too. Indy is terrible. Marlon Mack saw a career-high 39 snaps, more than Frank Gore a second straight week, and he had another big TD play. Gore out-touched him 20 to 14 but Mack is going to keep getting touches. Neither is super playable with the split.

Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jaguars come off their bye week with a pretty easy schedule going forward, so this might be your chance to trade for Leonard Fournette if you’re a believer. Deep leagues should consider stashing rookie Dede Westbrook who is finally healthy and could have a shot at becoming the lead Jags WR down the stretch.

Kansas City Chiefs

It’s hard to believe, but Kareem Hunt may have actually become a buy low. He hasn’t scored a TD in five games and has barely rushed for anything in two of the last three. But those games were against Denver and Pittsburgh’s great run defenses, and Hunt is on pace for a 400-touch season for a top team. He has 168 carries to just 8 for all other Chiefs RBs. He’s a stud and the yards and TDs will return. Go get him.

Los Angeles Chargers

Melvin Gordon continues to be Melvin Gordon, with 14 touches for 52 yards… and an 87-yard TD. Whatever works, I guess. Keenan Allen is a nice buy low, especially in PPR leagues. He’s top five in the NFL in targets and on pace for 80 receptions even with a slow month. The Chargers are on bye, so his price tag could be low.

Los Angeles Rams

Feel free to pick up Sammy Watkins for a week or two, just to see if the Rams incorporated him into their offense more during the bye week. Tyler Higbee is a fun long-shot tight end this week. He’s had 11 receptions his last four games and your 90-year-old grandma would probably score a TD at tight end against the Giants.

Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins traded Ajayi, which means it’s time to add Kenyan Drake and Damien Williams, in that order. Expect Drake to get the first shot at lead carries while Williams will be involved more in the passing game. Miami has a soft RB schedule the next six weeks, so there’s some possible value here but both are low-end flex options until we see more. Kenny Stills remains a sell-high, especially with DeVante Parker back healthy. I’m still on the Parker train and he’s a must-get with his value so low.

Minnesota Vikings

Jerick McKinnon had another productive game with 122 yards and a TD, but he’s a sell high as Minnesota heads into the bye. The Vikings should pass a bit more going forward, and McKinnon is still splitting snaps with Latavius Murray so he’s not going to be super reliable week to week.

New England Patriots

Yes, you should drop Mike Gillislee. He’s played 13 snaps three straight weeks and the Patriots are on bye. Hang onto James White, especially in PPR leagues, and keep Dion Lewis if you can too. He’s the clear lead runner now in New England, playing more snaps now than Gillislee did early, and the rushing TDs will come soon enough.

New Orleans Saints

Mark Ingram saw his snaps fade a bit as expected in a more traditional game flow but still got 24 touches for 99 yards and a TD. That’s 4 TDs, 15 catches, and 359 yards the last three games so keep riding him but do explore trade options. He looks more like a high-upside RB2 than a steady stud. Alvin Kamara has settled in around 12 to 14 touches and is a flex type.

New York Giants

Be sure to pick up Evan Engram if someone dropped him during the bye. He’s the Giants “WR1” and a weekly tight end start. Pick up Sterling Shepard too. The Giants have a very easy closing schedule, so there’s potential here if anyone starts producing.

New York Jets

More of the same from Jets runners with Bilal Powell splitting snaps with Matt Forte but out-touching him. He’s the better play but both are low upside. Austin Seferian-Jenkins now leads the Jets in receptions despite missing the first two games. He’s the one weekly Jets start.

Oakland Raiders

Neither DeAndre Washington nor Jalen Richard really stepped up with Marshawn Lynch suspended. Washington got 14 touches to Richard’s 10 but neither did anything on the ground and both can be dropped. This is a chance to buy low on Marshawn if you’re still a believer.

Philadelphia Eagles

Welcome aboard, Jay Ajayi. The Eagles lead the league in carries inside the five (compared to zero for Miami), and I was all set to tell you the LeGarrette Blount just hit a season-high 35 snaps and might actually be decent with his 4.7ypc. Instead, Ajayi might be a sell high. Philly’s lead RB has played under 50% of the snaps for the season, and that lead back has been three different players. Ajayi hasn’t been a great receiver in the pros and he might cede goal line carries to Blount. He’s a huge question mark at this point. The closing schedule is very nice, but it’s Denver’s wicked run D and a second bye week for Ajayi first, so this is a real mixed bag. Check the pulse on the Ajayi owner in your league. If you can afford a risk, he’s a high upside buy, but I’d actually try to sell high on the hype if you can find someone willing to pay.

Pittsburgh Steelers

JuJu Smith-Schuster exploded for 193 yards and a TD, but that’s really just a 6/96 game plus one long 97-yard TD. He’s under four targets a game the rest of the season and looks like an easy sell high. Go ahead and drop Martavis Bryant if he’s not traded by Tuesday afternoon’s trade deadline.

San Francisco 49ers

Hello, Jimmy Garoppolo! We’ll see how quickly Garoppolo starts — the 49ers have a bye in two weeks — but there’s no need to rush out and grab him. It’s wait and see in San Francisco. Carlos Hyde is under 30 rushing yards in three of the last four games but he’s seen 6+ targets six times now and can only really increase in value if the 49ers improve at all. Hyde is a high-upside RB2 and a nice buy option.

Seattle Seahawks

Russell Wilson had another huge game and has reached peak sell value. He’s now had three big fantasy games, three complete duds, and one average. He’s masquerading as a top five fantasy QB but just hasn’t been consistent. I’d much rather rely on Doug Baldwin, still a clear Seattle target leader with nine per game. He’s at 63 yards or fewer in five of seven games and makes a strong buy low option. Paul Richardson is a sell. He looks good with three TDs the last two weeks but is still fourth on the team in targets and hasn’t been in the top two any week since the opener. It’s hard to see him being consistent.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Doug Martin remains an excellent buy option for teams in need of RB help. He’s touched the ball 70 times in four games since his return and is averaging 75 yards a game despite a terrible Bucs stretch. Tampa is just 2–5 now with their lone wins against the Giants and Bears, and Jameis Winston is averaging over 39 pass attempts per game. Don’t be surprised to see Martin get a bigger workload going forward.

Tennessee Titans

Rishard Matthews is a nice waiver add off the Titans’ bye, just one off the Tennessee target lead, and Delanie Walker is a solid buy low at tight end if you haven’t found a weekly option. The Titans offense has struggled and gets Baltimore, Cincinnati, and Pittsburgh next so the waters are still choppy.

Washington Redskins

Maybe we were wrong on Chris Thompson early, or maybe Washington finally realized what they have. Thompson’s played 65% of the snaps since the bye, including a season-high 80% this week. He’s now averaging 15 touches a game and almost 100 combined yards a week. You can stop trying to sell him and just enjoy the solid RB2 you stumbled into. Rob Kelley played only 12 snaps and can be dropped in shallow leagues. You can cut Terrelle Pryor too. He played just 19 snaps this week, and it just hasn’t happened for him.

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