NFL week 10 picks against the spread

A Dallas-Atlanta showdown, Steelers and Rams best bets, and our second lock of the year

What kind of weird season has it been? Jared Goff was an historically bad starting quarterback last year. He’s now definitively better than more than half the league’s QBs and may be on the cusp of the top 10, and he leads what is apparently the best offense in the NFL and a team that is yet again one of the week’s best bets. Carson Wentz was taken one spot after him in last year’s draft, and he’s the clear league MVP at the season’s midpoint. Josh McCown and Brett Hundley are the best quarterbacks in games this week, and the latter has never won a game in his three-year career. We built a league around quarterbacks and currently have about 10 or 12 guys healthy and good enough to play the position. It’s a real problem.

There are exactly three games worth watching this week, and two of them might be defensive slogs anyway. The prime time games are bad again, and we’re stuck turning to America’s Team for another game of the week with Dallas visiting Atlanta in the game we never got last season. Thursday night’s win brings our picks to .500 on the year, and we’re winning 62% of our best bets, so giddy-up. Let’s go …

Thursday Night

Seattle -5.5 at Arizona

It took a blocked extra point in garbage time to preserve the cover, but we’ll take it.

The Stay Aways

New York Jets -1.5 at Tampa Bay

It’s the rare Double Quarterback Revenge Game, featuring Josh McCown and Ryan Fitzpatrick! Hey, did you know that Fitzpatrick dude went to Harvard? Lotttttta bad games this week, kids. Stay safe out there.

Tennessee -4 vs Cincinnati

We’re halfway through the season and no one has the first clue what either of these teams is. Cincinnati’s offense has scored nine touchdowns in seven games against the not-Browns, so Tennessee it is.

Green Bay +5.5 at Chicago

The Packers have won 13 of 15 against the Bears, including seven in a row in Chicago. Of course they had a different guy under center for most of those, but I’m not convinced Mitchell Trubisky is better than Brett Hundley anyway. Trubisky is averaging 128 passing yards a game, and the Bears offense has scored five TDs in his four games.

San Francisco +3 vs New York Giants

The 1–7 Giants are a road favorite against the 0–9 49ers, and the ‘90s are quietly dry heaving in disbelief in the corner. This is San Francisco’s best remaining chance at a win.

Three Big Favorites

Cleveland +11 at Detroit

The Lions have wins by 12, 13, and 14 against bad teams, so there’s a precedent to eke out a cover, but Detroit is 1–3 at home and coming off a short week against a rested Browns team. Cleveland’s lost by exactly three points every other week this season, and they got blown out last time. Patterns are patterns. And yes, we just picked two winless teams in a row. Don’t @ me.

New England -7 at Denver

Recency bias tells us the Pats always struggle in Denver, and the Broncos won three straight recently, twice in the postseason and one overtime thriller led by none other than Brock Osweiler. Of course, recency bias conveniently forgets about the 16–3 snoozer Patriots win in Denver just last December when the post-Manning Broncos weren’t good anymore. Denver can’t score, averaging just 14 ppg over their last six games. That’s right in line with the new and improved Patriots defense, down from 32 ppg allowed in their first four to 13 ppg in four since.

Carolina -9 vs Miami (Monday)

Carolina’s defense has held four different offenses to three points this season. We’ve seen Jay Cutler play on the road on Monday night more than enough times to know how this movie ends.

Hey Look, Three Good Games!!

Washington +1.5 vs Minnesota

Minnesota fans are getting pretty comfortable with Case Keenum, but his four-game win streak is against Trubisky, Hundley, Flacco, and Kizer. Washington’s 4–4 but the four losses are to the Eagles (twice), Cowboys, and Chiefs, and they have road wins over the Rams and Seahawks. This team is pretty okay, and the Vikings need a reason to turn to Teddy Bridgewater anyway.

New Orleans -3 at Buffalo

The Bills are 5–3 with a tough defense, but a closer look reveals a soft schedule thus far without a single top-ten offense faced. The Saints offense will be their toughest test yet, and New Orleans is rolling. They’ve won six in a row by an average of 15 points, every win by at least eight. It’s tough to see Buffalo keeping up here.

Dallas +3.5 at Atlanta

This would have been a marquee game featuring the best two teams from the NFC last year, but what exactly is either of these teams right now? Atlanta’s offense is not clicking, under 16ppg over their last five games. Remember how this team scored every time it moved last year? They haven’t broken 20 since September. Dallas was just getting rolling, but it looks like they’ll finally lose Ezekiel Elliott for real this time. This feels like one of those games that comes down to whichever quarterback has the ball last, so we’ll take the points.

Week 10 Best Bets

Pittsburgh -10 at Indianapolis

It’s normally not a good idea to take a double-digit favorite on the road, but we’re going to make an exception here because something is rotten in Indy. The Colts cut Vontae Davis out of nowhere this week, a couple days after news of Andrew Luck feuding with owner Jim Irsay and whispers that Luck may never play again. Pittsburgh is rested off the bye week and has allowed only 12 touchdowns all season, four of them in garbage time. That’s one TD per game when it matters. They should roll here, barring a backdoor cover.

Los Angeles Rams -12 vs Houston

How high would this line have to be for you to consider taking the Texans? Houston’s defense has fallen apart with injuries, allowing 30ppg over their last four games, and the offense is crippled without Deshaun Watson. Now they go west to face a scorching hot Rams team averaging 36ppg outside of one Seattle game. Los Angeles already has wins this season by 33, 34, and 37. Don’t be surprised to see them add another big one here.

Jacksonville -3.5 vs Los Angeles Chargers

This line is baffling. The Chargers have the worst run defense in the league, so Leonard Fournette should eat. They also have a weak offensive line facing the league’s best pass rush. This is just a bad matchup for L.A. This Jaguars defense is scary good. They’ve held five opponents to single digits, and their average winning margin is almost 25 points! Philip Rivers has a good history against Jacksonville, but these are not your grandmother’s Jaguars. We’re making Blake Bortles our second lock of the year. God help us all.

Week 9 record: 7–4–2 Season record: 63–64–6 Best bets: 16–10–1 Locks: 1–0

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