What NFL 7-Seeds Would Have Made the Playoffs over the Last 10 Years?
The new NFL CBA means 7-seeds in each conference are playoff bound. So what would that have looked like the last 10 years?
THE NFL PASSED ITS NEW COLLECTIVE BARGAINING AGREEMENT SUNDAY, by the slimmest of margins. The new 10-year CBA agreement means an increase in the salary cap, a 17-game regular season schedule beginning in 2021, and an expanded NFL playoff field to seven teams in each conference, 14 in all, effective immediately.
I’ve already written about the merits for and against the new expanded playoff format. It wouldn’t have been my choice, but it’s the world we have now. This is a big win for 7-seeds, who now have a shot, and a huge win for 1-seeds, who get much better protection en route to the Super Bowl. It’s a massive loss for 2-seeds, who lose a bye week and get a much steeper playoff path against a potentially hot last team in.
This year, a 14-team NFL playoff would have meant the Los Angeles Rams and Pittsburgh Steelers made the field. Who else would have made the playoffs over the last decade — and would it have even mattered?
2019–20 season
NFC — Los Angeles Rams 9–7
We start with a bang as Sean McVay’s Rams sneak in after a disappointing campaign. The team started 3–0 before losing three straight and falling out of the playoffs as Jared Goff took a major step backwards and Todd Gurley never got going. Still, this was one of the most talented teams in football, and they’d have been a very tough out against the 2-seed Packers. A Rams win sends them to San Francisco, a team L.A. just played down to the final play on the road in Week 16. It also means the Saints host a conference semifinal instead of traveling to Green Bay, and they’d host the NFC Conference Championship too if the Rams won again and set up a rematch of last season. Juicy.
AFC — Pittsburgh Steelers 8–8
The AFC is less exciting, with only one non-playoff team even at .500. The Steelers started the year with three straight losses and ended with three more, going 8–2 in between when we temporarily thought they were good. We were robbed of starting playoff quarterback Duck Hodges, who threw for under 100 yards in each of his final two starts. And I do mean final, like, in his career.
2018–19 season
NFC — Minnesota Vikings 8–7–1
The Vikings had the playoffs in their hands but lost at home to the feckless backup Bears. What if Minnesota had rested Dalvin Cook et al instead and been healthy to face the Rams in a playoff game? Sounds nice until you remember the Week 4 Thursday night game when Jared Goff hit every pass he ever wanted against this Minnesota defense.
AFC — Pittsburgh Steelers 9–6–1
Guess who’s back? This year’s Steelers team would have been far more interesting. Remember Ben Roethlisberger? How about Antonio Brown? Can I interest you in JuJu Smith-Schuster and James Conner on breakout campaigns? Pittsburgh sneaks in on the strength of a Week 1 tie against Cleveland, and now they’re off to 2-seed New England for a massive opening round salvo. Remember, those Patriots won the Super Bowl. Might the Steelers have ended the dynasty a year early? Could that have opened the door for a Chiefs title one year earlier, and for a Super Bowl rematch of that incredible 54–51 Chiefs-Rams game?
2017–18 season
NFC — Detroit Lions 9–7
The Lions win a three-way tie with the Cowboys and Seahawks (sorry, TV execs!) on the basis of conference win percentage and head to Minnesota, where they won on the road in Week 4. Could Detroit have knocked out the Vikings and saved me from my misery in the NFC Championship against the Eagles? Maybe, but we’ll always have the Minneapolis Miracle.
AFC — Baltimore Ravens 9–7
The Ravens tied the Titans, Bills, and Chargers at 9–7 but finished third among those rankings, missing out while Tennessee and Buffalo danced, after a distatrous Week 17 Baltimore collapse against the Bengals. Now they’re in, and they’re off to a rivalry playoff matchup in Pittsburgh. Joe Flacco and the road Ravens had done it plenty of times before. Might they have done it again? And if they had, would Baltimore still have traded up in the draft a few months later to take future MVP Lamar Jackson??
2016–17 season
NFC — Tampa Bay Bucs 9–7
Jameis Winston, playoff quarterback. What a world it might have been. The Bucs head to Atlanta where they upset the Falcons in Week 1, temporarily throwing us off the scent of a Matt Ryan MVP campaign and a would-be Super Bowl win that was 28–3 away.
AFC — Tennessee Titans 9–7
Did you know the Titans have gone 9–7 four straight years? It’s true, still a current streak. How do you win nine games every year without ever being relevant? We might have remembered these Titans. They head to Kansas City, a team they just beat on the road in December. And by the way, this also gives Marcus Mariota a playoff start. Our top two draft picks from 2015 both get their first playoff start, maybe one of them even gets a win. Instead both of them are homeless, looking for new jobs this offseason.
2015–16 season
NFC — Atlanta Falcons 8–8
These Falcons started 6–1 before imploding on a six-game losing streak despite one of the all-time great receiving seasons from Julio Jones. They would’ve gotten destroyed by Carson Palmer’s Cardinals.
AFC — New York Jets 10–6
Our first 10-win team! The Jets lost out on the common-games tiebreaker to the Steelers, but this team was legitimately good. Their +73 point differential ranked 8th in the NFL and Todd Bowles had this defense balling. The Jets would’ve been a very tricky opponent for the rival Patriots as a team that’s upset Bill Belichick more than a few times over the years. But then we might not have gotten that one last great Brady-Manning battle in the AFC Championship.
2014–15 season
NFC — Philadelphia Eagles 10–6
Justice is served as the 10–6 Eagles make the playoffs, when in the real world they sat out watching while the 7–8–1 Panthers hosted a home game. And these aren’t just any Philadelphia Eagles. These were Chip Kelly’s Eagles, who scored 30+ points nine times that season on the second-highest scoring team in the league. You don’t want to see Chip Kelly in an NFL playoff game?
AFC — Houston Texans 9–7
This would’ve been a crazy Week 17 finish, as the Texans win the conference-record tiebreaker to get in over the 9–7 Chiefs, Chargers, and Bills. That means Case Keenum starting in the playoffs after beginning his career 0–8 the previous season. And you know what happens when Case Keenum’s in the playoffs, right?
2013–14 season
NFC — Arizona Cardinals 10–6
Maybe Bruce Arians would still be in Arizona had his Cards not gotten robbed of these playoff berths. This team won seven of its final nine games and would have been no picnic for the 2-seed Panthers. They were more defense than offense, with Patrick Patterson and Tyrann Mathieu leading an absurdly talented secondary at the peak of their powers.
AFC — Pittsburgh Steelers 8–8
Would you have guessed the Steelers would benefit more than anyone else from this new expanded playoff format? That’s three extra playoff appearances in the last seven seasons for Pittsburgh, though this version of the team wasn’t very good. They’d have won a four-way tiebreaker against the Ravens, Jets, and Dolphins, and all of them would’ve lost to the Patriots anyway.
2012–13 season
NFC — Chicago Bears 10–6
Maybe Lovie Smith keeps his job if the Bears make the playoffs. Maybe he should have anyway. This was one of those many Chicago teams with a ridiculous defense and no real offense. Maybe the best defense ever to miss the playoffs, #1 in the league by a mile. Think Brian Urlacher, Julius Peppers, Charles Tillman, and Lance Briggs on one end but Jay Cutler and Brandon Marshall on the other. Ahh, memories.
AFC — Pittsburgh Steelers 8–8
Guess who? These 8–8 Steelers were actually pretty dangerous, considering Ben Roethlisberger was healthy after missing three games injured and that this team had the #1 defense in the league by yards allowed. They might have given the Patriots a real scare, not to mention this expanded playoff format would mean the Steelers are currently on an 11-year playoff streak. This team hasn’t finished under .500 since 2003. Incredible.
2011–12 season
NFC — Chicago Bears 8–8
Okay, yeah, Lovie Smith definitely would’ve kept his job awhile longer. Lovie’s Bears won 7+ games in eight straight seasons before he was fired. They’ve gone over .500 once in seven years since. I guess Joni Mitchell was right. You really don’t know what you got til it’s gone. They paved paradise, and put up a Mitch Trubisky.
AFC — Tennessee Titans 9–7
Apparently the Titans just always go 9–7 without anyone noticing. These Titans were extremely forgettable, even by Tennessee standards. They missed the playoffs because of a head-to-head loss to Andy Dalton’s Bengals.
2010–11 season
NFC — New York Giants 10–6
This might be the best team on the entire list. The Giants ranked top-7 in yardage on both offense and defense, and they were the league’s #1 third-down defense. And the NFC was there for the taking. The 1-seed 13–3 Falcons got punked in their first playoff game, and the 2-seed Bears laid an egg in the NFC Championship. Could Eli Manning have gone 4–0 on the road one again, robbing Aaron Rodgers of his only title, taking down Big Ben for another ring? Would Elisha Nelson Manning be a three-time Super Bowl champion?!
AFC — San Diego Chargers 9–7
Actually, the Chargers might have been even better. Their +119 point differential ranked fifth in the entire NFL, and they had the profile of a 10.9-win team and led the league in yardage on both offense and defense, even without a single player over 800 rushing or receiving yards. Darren Sproles racked up 2210 all-purpose yards. This was the last time the Patriots lost their first game, against Mark Sanchez and the Jets. Could Philip Rivers have played Eli Manning in a Super Bowl? Could the Chargers still be in San Diego?? Guess we’ll never know…
SO WHAT HAVE WE LEARNED?
So that’s 10 years of NFL 7-seeds. What have we learned?
- We’re typically taking one of a few 9–7 teams to the playoffs now. Occasionally a 10–6 team, and rarely one at 8–8. Seems fine.
- The new format looks like it will add one interesting game each year and one dud. Again: seems fine.
- The Pittsburgh Steelers franchise is really quite remarkable. Even in their bad years, they’re a playoff team now.
- The Chicago Bears should have retained Lovie Smith.
- Eli Manning is an alternate world Hall of Famer.
- Philip Rivers and the Chargers might still be in San Diego.
- We’re only four days into a world without sports and already this desperate for content. Welp. ■
Follow Brandon on Medium or @wheatonbrando for more sports, television, humor, and culture. Visit the rest of Brandon’s writing archives here.
