NFL Midseason Power Rankings and Postseason Predictions

Halfway through the 2019 NFL season, let’s see where every team stands and which teams should rise and fall going forward…

HALFWAY THROUGH THE NFL SEASON, SOME THINGS HAVE CHANGED AND OTHERS ARE STILL THE SAME. The Patriots are still the favorites, though they’re no longer undefeated. Patrick Mahomes is still the MVP, though he’s no longer healthy. The Saints are still winning, though they’re no longer relying on Teddy Bridgewater to do it. Every week is a new journey around the NFL, and somehow we’ve already played half a season.

I’ve been doing a weekly Power Rankings with each week’s picks, but it’s time for a deep dive at the season’s midpoint. Many teams’ underlying metrics are not what their record would have you believe. Some surefire playoff teams are bound to fall out in the second half, while other overlooked teams may still make a run at the postseason.

These are the NFL Midseason Power Rankings, complete with updated postseason predictions and picks. Be sure to check out the Midseason MVP, LVP, Rookie of the Year, and more with our award picks too!

TIER I — A NEW NAME AT THE TOP

1. San Francisco 49ers 8–0 (Last week: 2)

We all had the 49ers as our last unbeaten team, right? San Francisco has been an absolute revelation, starting with their historically good defense. The 49ers have won all but two games by multiple scores, and only once was their win in doubt into the final minutes. San Francisco wins with old school football, with the league’s best rushing attack and an elite defense.

Of course, they’ve also benefited from a super soft schedule. The 49ers have exactly zero wins against a team that would make the playoffs right now. They did dominate the Rams on the road in their most impressive win. The schedule gets a lot tougher in the second half. They’ll play the Rams again but also get the Packers, Ravens, Saints, and Seahawks (x2). The good news is they won’t leave home again until December.

But, while the 49ers do appear to be real, there could be some bumps ahead with that schedule and increasing injuries to their offensive line and run game. As great a first half as they’ve had, they’re no lock for a bye week — or even a division title, for that matter.

TIER II — THE CHAMPIONSHIP FAVORITES

2. New England Patriots 8–1 (1) 3. New Orleans Saints 7–1 (3)

As awesome as the Patriots defense was through eight games, the offense sure seems underwhelming. I was all set to drop them in the rankings after a convincing loss. But even after that loss, New England still has the league’s best point differential at +172. The Patriots have outscored opponents by more points than seven AFC teams have scored the entire season!

Of course, like the 49ers, the Pats have benefited from a soft schedule. Eight NFL teams have two or fewer wins right now, and six of New England’s wins have come against those teams. And like San Francisco, that is about to change. After the bye, the Pats are at Philly, home for Dallas, at Houston, and home for Kansas City. Those last two are key since the Texans and Chiefs are gunning for New England’s bye.

The Saints look like the most complete and balanced team in the NFL. When Drew Brees went down injured, I counted the Saints season lost, figuring they’d lost just enough games to fall out of a heated division and NFC race. Instead, the only New Orleans loss came against the Rams when Brees got hurt early and the team couldn’t adjust on the fly.

The Saints are perfect otherwise, though far less dominant than the teams above them. New Orleans is just +39 in point differential. They’ve been winning tight games, 5–0 in one-score contests so far. But they did that against the tougher half of the schedule and they did it without Brees.

Now Brees is back, and the Saints are 7–1 and in incredible position. New Orleans should be favored in every game the rest of the way, probably by at least a touchdown in all but one game, and that one is a home game against the 49ers. That makes the Saints the 1-seed favorite in the NFC, and it means Brees might have one last great shot at a second ring.

TIER III — CAN THEY WIN IT THEIR WAY?

4. Kansas City Chiefs 6–3 (6) 5. Baltimore Ravens 6–2 (7)

The Chiefs have been awfully impressive in the absence of Patrick Mahomes, showing just how terrific Andy Reid and this coaching staff are. It looks like Mahomes may be back this week, but the question now is exactly which version of Mahomes we are getting. The truth is that Mahomes has played through somewhat serious injury all season — we forget now, but he had a high ankle sprain in the opening minutes of Week 1.

The Chiefs hit the road the next two weeks for the Titans and Chargers before a badly needed bye. If Mahomes is healthy enough, that should be two wins and give a rested Chiefs team a shot to win in New England in December so they don’t have to do so in January. But as much as Mahomes is Superman, I’m just not sure 85% Patrick is enough.

Kansas City’s early victory over Baltimore could loom large with the two vying for playoff positioning. The Ravens are the hot name right now, but they have a pretty rough stretch ahead with the Texans, Rams, Niners, and Bills in four straight games. That’s a whole lot of defense and a lot more chances for teams to find a formula against Lamar Jackson. Baltimore is dangerous but still feels super matchup dependent. They could be deadly against some top teams but might also fall apart against the wrong defense.

TIER IV — THE FLAWED TITLE CONTENDERS

6. Houston Texans 6–3 (9) 7. Green Bay Packers 7–2 (4) 8. Minnesota Vikings 6–3 (5) 9. Seattle Seahawks 7–2 (11) 10. Dallas Cowboys 5–3 (10)

The Texans feel a slight step below the Chiefs and Ravens, though those four teams have started to pull away from the rest of the AFC pack. We could be seeing a lot of Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, and Deshaun Watson battles in the future. Watson has been better than any of them this year, and when the Texans are firing on all cylinders, they’re as good as anyone. But they can still be so inconsistent, and seven of their games have been one-score affairs so it’s usually up to Watson late. Houston has a bye before games against the Ravens, Colts, and Pats that will define their season. If Deshaun Watson wants to be the MVP, he’s going to have every opportunity in that stretch.

The Packers haven’t been all that impressive, considering their 7–2 record. Their three best wins against Minnesota, Dallas, and Kansas City weren’t particularly impressive, and the loss Sunday to the Chargers was pretty disconcerting. Green Bay’s defense is suddenly awfully leaky, and the Packers are the league’s highest variance team. We still don’t really know what this team is.

I’m pretty sure the Vikings are better, but they have an extra loss that just happens to be to Green Bay, so I’ll keep the purple-tinted glasses off for now. The Vikings rank top 10 in pass offense, pass defense, run offense, and run defense. That’s… kind of everything. They still get all three division opponents at home, too. But as good as they’ve been at times, Kirk Cousins is going to have to win a big road game at some point, and he’ll get two prime time shots soon, Sunday night in Dallas and Monday in Seattle in a couple weeks. If he can’t win one of those, Minnesota will be on the road all playoffs. This team needs to play at home as much as any NFC contender, and that makes every regular season win that much more important.

Some NFC contender is going to fall out of the playoff race, and my bet is on the Seahawks. Seattle is 7–2 but only +18 in point differential. Only five teams have allowed more points, and those worse defenses are all below .500. Seattle is getting an MVP performance by Russell Wilson so far. They’re 6–1 in one-score games, but history tells us that those results are fluky. The Seahawks have played only two playoff opponents, both in Seattle, and weren’t particularly competitive against either. They still face the 49ers twice along with the Vikings, Eagles, Rams, and Panthers, and four of those games are on the road. Seattle ranks bottom-6 in both defense and special teams in DVOA with the hardest remaining schedule. Let’s put it this way: if they do keep winning at this pace, Russell Wilson will have earned that MVP trophy.

Would you believe the Cowboys have the third best point differential in the entire NFL? They still have the league’s #1 offense and have five convincing wins and three close losses. They could easily be undefeated if they’d caught a few bounces. Dallas is in great shape to make the playoffs, but those two 2-point road losses to the Jets and Brees-less Saints are going to cost them any real shot at positioning or a first-round bye. But if you’re looking for a sleeper MVP candidate, keep an eye on Dak Prescott in the second half. Dude is about to get paid.

TIER V — HANGING BY A THREAD

11. Los Angeles Rams 5–3 (13) 12. Philadelphia Eagles 5–3 (14) 13. Indianapolis Colts 5–3 (8) 14. Buffalo Bills 6–2 (10) 15. Carolina Panthers 5–3 (15)

Already 1500 words in on only 10 teams, it’s time to start hitting the bullet points. The Rams feel like a sleeping giant. Sean McVay’s offense hasn’t woken up since the Super Bowl, but the defense has been brilliant. They’re outside the playoff picture right now, but let’s see what McVay did to fix Jared Goff during the bye week. The Rams face an uphill climb and a tough second-half schedule, but if the offense gets moving, this will be the wildcard team no one wants to face in January.

The Eagles were my preseason Super Bowl pick, but they just haven’t clicked, ravaged by injuries for a second straight season. Something feels off, something with the coaching. There’s not enough Carson Wentz, and the team starts slow every week. Philly has a bye this week before hosting the Patriots and Seahawks, but then the schedule opens up beautifully with games against the Dolphins, Skins, and Giants (x2) and a home finale against Dallas. The Eagles look extremely average thus far, but they’ve weathered the storm. There’s still a path for this team to get very hot and very dangerous down the stretch.

It feels like the Colts bubble may be about to burst. Indianapolis is 5–3 in one-score games… that’s all of them, if you’re counting. The injuries are continuing to mount for Indy, and now Jacoby Brissett is ailing too. Don’t forget, Brian Hoyer is really the third-string quarterback. Frank Reich has worked miracles with this team, but the playoffs might be too big an ask.

The Bills remain in the driver’s seat for the playoffs, but they’re 25th in the NFL in scoring, averaging under 20 points a game. Buffalo has played only two teams over .500 and lost both games convincingly. Starting on Thanksgiving, Buffalo plays Dallas, Baltimore, Pittsburgh, and New England in a murderer’s row that just might be the end for Josh Allen et al. Buffalo has played only two even remotely good quarterbacks so far. They’re getting by on smoke and mirrors, and the jig will soon be up.

It might already be for the Panthers now that Cam Newton has gone onto the IR. Kyle Allen has filled in admirably, but Carolina has the metrics of a .500 team, a poor pass offense, and an awful run defense. Christian McCaffrey has been incredible, but the Panthers have a loaded upcoming schedule and are the eighth best team in the NFC, at best. Now that we know Cam isn’t coming back, there’s just not enough reason to believe.

TIER VI — SHOCKINGLY COMPETENT

16. Oakland Raiders 4–4 (21) 17. Detroit Lions 3–4–1 (17) 18. Pittsburgh Steelers 4–4 (18) 19. Jacksonville Jaguars 4–5 (16) 20. Arizona Cardinals 3–5–1 (19) 21. Tennessee Titans 4–5 (20)

The tier name here is apt. These six teams are competent. They’re average, fine, decent. They give good teams a quality game and take care of the bad opponents. That’s something!

For the Lions and Cardinals, it’s not enough to matter. Ironically enough, the Week 1 tie between Detroit and Arizona might have screwed over both of them. As tough as the NFC is, every win counts, and that was effectively a loss for both. Too bad, because Matt Stafford is having a wonderful year, and Kyler Murray has had a really terrific rookie season. He looks like the real deal.

For the Raiders and Steelers, being competent is a little more meaningful. At 4–4 in the wide-open AFC, either or both could still make a playoff run. Oakland is actually above average at almost everything except for pass defense, where they’re absolutely dead last. With the Chargers, Bengals, and Jets on deck, they have a real shot to get to 7–4 before a trip to Kansas City that could suddenly really mean something. Pittsburgh has rebuilt a top-5 defense on the fly and might finally get a little stability at QB. They have an insanely winnable schedule after the Rams this week: Browns, Bengals, Browns again, Cards, Bills, and Jets. That’s a serious path to 9 or 10 wins, and if they pull it off, the finale in Baltimore could flip the entire season script.

The Jaguars and Titans could be in the mix too, but they’re a little bit worse and already an extra loss behind. The division is probably gone for both barring a Houston collapse. Jacksonville has a more winnable remaining schedule, but we’ll see if Nick Foles does as well as Gardner Minshew. I’m not convinced. Tennessee’s seven remaining opponents are all in the playoff hunt, so the bottom could really fall out there if they continue to stay banged up.

TIER VII — THE BIG DISAPPOINTMENTS

22. Los Angeles Chargers 4–5 (22) 23. Chicago Bears 3–5 (23) 24. Cleveland Browns 2–6 (24)

Without a doubt, these are the three biggest disappointments of the first half of the NFL season.

The Chargers feel a lot less disappointment after the beatdown they put on Green Bay last week. L.A. is 2–5 in one-score games which should provide a lot of optimism, until you remember that the Chargers are literally experts at finding ways to lose close games. This team is finally starting to get healthy, and there’s still a path to eight or nine wins, but it’s an uphill one. It looks like early home losses to Denver and Pittsburgh will doom them. Sound familiar?

The Bears are only -2 point differential, and while their defense is no longer as elite as last year, they still do enough to keep Chicago in most games just long enough for Mitchell Trubisky to screw things up. The Bears end the season against the Cowboys, Packers, Chiefs, and Vikings, so it could get ugly. And for Chicago’s long-term hopes, it might honestly be better off if it does. I just got a new computer and it doesn’t recognize Trubisky, so it keeps trying to autocorrect it to Rubbishy. I can’t bring myself to fix it.

The Browns are an abject disaster for a record 589th straight season. Freddie Kitchens sucks, the defense has disappointed, and Baker Mayfield has regressed in a huge way. But you know the weird thing? Cleveland is favored this week against 6–2 Buffalo, and they have an insanely winnable schedule. If the Browns win this week and look good, Cleveland could legit be favored in every remaining game. Could the Browns go on a run? It’s always darkest just before the dawn, and it’s really dark in Cleveland right now. The Browns haven’t been over .500 since December 2014. It’ll be a minor miracle if that changes this December, but maybe they can get to seven or eight wins.

TIER VIII — AT LEAST THEY’RE TRYING

25. Denver Broncos 3–6 (25) 26. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2–6 (26) 27. New York Giants 2–7 (27) 28. Atlanta Falcons 1–7 (30)

The Broncos and Bucs are better than you think. Denver has the league’s #3 DVOA defense, but they also have only one home game before December 22 and will start Brandon Allen or Drew Lock at QB the rest of the way. Wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world for this team to go 4–12. Seven of Tampa’s eight games have come against opponents .500 or better right now, and the Bucs have been right there in all but one game. Bruce Arians and Todd Bowles have done an awesome job with the Bucs, but there’s only so much you can do with Jameis Winston around.

The Giants beat those Bucs a long while back and that colored our early perception of the Daniel Jones era. Jones looks fine for a rookie, but the Giants have five losses by multiple TDs. The Falcons are trying but have faced a brutal schedule, and it’s not going to get much easier, especially if Matt Ryan is out. Dan Quinn is a dead man walking, and the Falcons might end up adding a top-5 pick to a pretty talented roster next year.

TIER IX — THE FISH TANK

29. Washington Haskins 1–8 (28) 30. Miami Dolphins 1–7 (32) 31. Cincinnati Bengals 0–8 (31) 32. New York Jets 1–7 (32)

There’s a new team at the bottom, too! Since their early bye, the Dolphins have been more horrible than historically awful, and now they have a win to show for it. Miami still has games left against the Browns, Jets, Giants, and Bengals. If they want the #1 pick, they’re going to have to earn it.

Washington might actually end up picking #1. They’ve scored exactly one touchdown not against Miami since September 23, and they already have seven losses by 9+ points. But the good news is they reached for Dwayne Haskins, who looks awful so far and will probably prevent them from taking Tua Tagovailoa at the top of the draft.

The Bengals are the last winless team, but they’ve lost four one-score games, so they’ll get one soon enough. Fun fact: the Bengals randomly have the league’s best special teams this year. Fun fact #2: new Cincy QB Ryan Finley gives us four starting quarterbacks from North Carolina State (Russell Wilson, Philip Rivers, and Jacoby Brissett), and we could even get a fifth if Mike Glennon gets a start in Oakland at some point. Weird.

There are no fun facts about the Jets. When you play the Dolphins and it’s unclear which team is tanking, you deserve the #32 ranking.

REVISED POSTSEASON PREDICTIONS

NFC Playoffs

1. New Orleans 2. San Francisco 3. Green Bay 4. Dallas 5. Minnesota 6. L.A. Rams

AFC Playoffs

1. New England 2. Baltimore 3. Kansas City 4. Houston 5. Pittsburgh 6. Oakland

Conference Championships

New Orleans over San Francisco New England over Baltimore

Super Bowl LIV

Saints 30, Patriots 26

BONUS! THURSDAY NIGHT PICK

Oakland +1.5 vs Los Angeles Chargers

Don’t overthink this. One of these teams is good, and the other one is not, no matter what the line might lead you to believe. ■

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