NFL Week 10 Picks against the Spread and Midseason Awards
We crown midseason MVP, LVP, ROY, and more, plus picks for every Week 10 game with Cowboys, Raiders, and Cards best bets
IT’S NOVEMBER, AND IT’S BEGINNING TO FEEL LIKE THE PLAYOFFS. We’re past the midpoint of the NFL season, and the playoff picture is starting to make sense. A handful of teams have separated themselves from the pack atop the Midseason Power Rankings, and every single home team won last Sunday.
Halfway through the season, it’s time to look back on the first half and pick some awards. Who has been the most valuable player, and who’s the LVP? What teams have been most surprising or most disappointing, and what rookies and coaches have stood out? It’s time for some Midseason Awards, plus the usual Week 10 picks.
We had our best week of the season in Week 9, going 11–3, and already nailed another Thursday pick. The Raiders were an underdog, and we’re somehow taking 10 of 13 underdogs this week. Last week was all about the home teams. Is this week for the dogs?
NFL MIDSEASON AWARDS
Offensive Rookie of the Year — Josh Jacobs
We’re not making predictions here but rather looking back, focusing on the first half of the season. And by that criteria, Jacobs is a pretty easy choice. He’s on pace for almost 1500 rushing yards as a rookie and has been at the heart of a legitimately good Raiders team I just picked to make the playoffs. Jacobs is averaging almost five yards a carry and has yet to fumble.
Honorable mention: Kyler Murray, Gardner Minshew
Defensive Rookie of the Year — Nick Bosa
Nick Bosa has been downright unblockable at times this season, and he’s only going to keep getting better. Bosa is getting some Defensive Player of the Year hype as the most obvious addition to a historically great defense, but that’s not giving enough credit to his teammates. Still, Bosa has seven sacks and leads the NFL in tackles for a loss, plus a forced fumble and an interception to boot. He has been an absolute monster.
Honorable mention: Josh Allen
Coach of the Year — Sean Payton
Belichick and Shanahan are obvious (and deserving) candidates too, but I have to give the nod to Payton for keeping the Saints unbeaten when Drew Brees went out injured and should have derailed the season. New Orleans was one of a few Super Bowl favorites entering the year, and Payton has kept them right on track with a quarterback few thought would ever even play NFL football again a few years ago.
Honorable mention: Kyle Shanahan, Bill Belichick
Offensive Player of the Year — Christian McCaffrey
McCaffrey has been an absolute monster this year with 1244 yards from scrimmage and 13 touchdowns, both leading the league. He’s averaging 5.3 yards a rush, and that would be 6.4 if not for him getting completely shut down by the Bucs defense not once but twice. CMC has done it by ground and by air, a throwback to the days of Marshall Faulk. He has a legit chance to put up something like 25 TDs, 2500 combined yards, and 100 receptions.
Honorable mention: Russell Wilson, Deshaun Watson, Dalvin Cook
Defensive Player of the Year — Stephon Gilmore
I won’t pretend to know defense as well as the other side of the ball, but it’s not too hard to pick the league’s #1 corner on the league’s #1 defense. Gilmore takes away half the field in a way few corners do these days, and he’s the best player on one of the best defensive teams in NFL history.
Honorable mention: Joey Bosa, Nick Bosa, Aaron Donald
Most Disappointing — Cleveland Browns
The Browns are a runaway winner, which is ironic enough. Cleveland has been an abject disaster. They’re the most penalized team in the league and never have the right play call, revealing an incompetent coaching staff. Baker Mayfield has taken a major step backward and seems to completely lack confidence. This thing could not have gone any more sideways so far.
Dishonorable mention: Chicago Bears, Los Angeles Chargers
Most Surprising — San Francisco 49ers
Did anyone on the planet have the 49ers as the last undefeated team in the league? San Francisco was my big sleeper pick last year, but I slept on them totally this season, and I certainly never expected the defense to be the big breakout unit on the team. All hail Robert Saleh, and heaven help us if Kyle Shanahan ever gets the passing game going too.
Honorable mention: New Orleans Saints, Buffalo Bills
Least Valuable Player (LVP) — Mitchell Trubisky
This has been heated competition between three quarterbacks, but Mitch Trubisky is the only player that has single-handedly derailed his team’s entire season. It was so apparent from the season’s opening game that I wrote an entire piece about the Bears fallen expectations, and it’s only gotten worse from there. Matt Nagy has lost faith in his quarterback, and Bears fans have totally turned on Mitch too. It’s over. It’s time for everybody to move on.
Dishonorable mention: Jared Goff, Baker Mayfield
MIDSEASON NFL MVP LADDER
10. Cooper Kupp 9. Stephon Gilmore 8. Patrick Mahomes 7. Aaron Rodgers
MVP is the fun one, so we may as well do a top 10 ladder. Kupp is probably a silly choice, but he feels like the most valuable receiver and has consistently stood out as the heartbeat of the Rams offense. Gilmore would never even sniff the MVP, but the Defensive Player of the Year on a historically elite D should get at least a second glance.
Mahomes and Rodgers are perennial MVP candidates, but they haven’t quite matched up with the top quarterbacks this year, or with our expectations for what they can be. Both have had moments and could still get there with a stronger second half. Let’s hope Mahomes can stay healthy.
6. Dak Prescott 5. Dalvin Cook 4. Christian McCaffrey
Dak Prescott has made himself a ton of money this season. He’s been outstanding outside of one clunker against the Packers, hitting big plays down the field and well on his way to a career year. He’s finally silencing all the critics that labeled him a product of the system.
Cook and McCaffrey have had spectacular running back seasons. Cook leads the league in rushing, and McCaffrey in touchdowns and yards from scrimmage. Both have been incredible. But MVP goes to a quarterback in 2019, so unless one of these guys drags his team to 12–4 and puts up historic numbers, they’ll have to compete for Offensive Player of the Year.
3. Lamar Jackson 2. Deshaun Watson
The first-half MVP has been mostly a three-man race, but what’s interesting is that none of the top three options appear to be likely winners. The NFL MVP historically goes to a player on a top-2 seed, and none of those players really fit the bill this season. Mahomes and Brees have been hurt. Brady and Garoppolo have been fine but not the reason for their teams’ success.
But that’s where Jackson and Watson have been so fascinating. Both have a marquee Sunday night win — Lamar over New England and Deshaun over the Chiefs — and both are in the mix for an AFC bye week. Jackson has had more electrifying moments, but Watson has been the better and more consistent player overall. This is a transitional year in the AFC, but they’re in good hands with these two and Mahomes battling for the next decade.
1. Russell Wilson
As exciting as Jackson and Watson have been, there’s really no question that Russell Wilson is the midseason MVP. I’ve long called Wilson one of the best quarterbacks in football, but he’s alone at the top of the heap this year. Wilson has taken a remarkably average Seahawks team to a 7–2 record thanks to a near perfect half season. He’s thrown for over 2500 yards and leads the league with 22 TD passes and somehow just one interception. Add in four fourth-quarter comebacks already, and this simply isn’t close.
If I had to make an actual MVP prediction, it wouldn’t be Wilson. I have three of the four byes going pretty confidently to the Saints, 49ers, and Patriots. So my MVP pick is the quarterback of whichever team grabs that other top-2 AFC seed: Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes, or Deshaun Watson, in that order. But for these awards, Russell Wilson is our midseason MVP.
MIDSEASON NFL POWER RANKINGS
Normally we’d throw the Week 10 Power Rankings here, but we already did a whole blowout Midseason Power Rankings so let’s just link to that here. Be sure to check it out for a deep dive on every team if you haven’t already, plus new teams at the top and bottom of the ranks…
THE STAY AWAYS
New York Giants -2 at New York Jets
Could the Battle of New York be any less interesting? Better question: would you rather have Daniel Jones or Sam Darnold going forward? I’d still take Darnold, but Jones has been a better than I expected as a rookie. Can’t say I’d be particularly excited about either.
Tennessee +6 vs Kansas City
Until we see Mahomes on a football field, it’s impossible to know what to expect from him, sort of like it’s impossible to know what the Chiefs will do any given week. Feels like the Titans run game could gash Kansas City and keep this close enough, and remember, Tennessee always does the opposite of what you expect.
Buffalo +3 at Cleveland
How often does a healthy team that’s won 75% of its games go on the road as a clear underdog against a team that’s won only 25% of its games? It can’t be very often, right? Eat your heart out, Josh Allen truthers. Cleveland being a public team this year is the gift that keeps on giving. Buffalo has real coaches and a real defense, and this line is a joke.
Detroit +3 at Chicago
The Bears swept the Lions last year, but the Bears were good last year. This year’s team is the worst in the division, and Detroit won 9 of the last 10 before that. The Trubisky experiment is like in science class when you figured out the result five minutes in but still had to go through two more hours of steps to fill out your lab work. Also, HBO just bought the rights to The Trubisky Experiment and will air it next spring.
Update: apparently Stafford is hurt. Chicago it is.
THE TOO-BIG FAVORITES
Cincinnati +10 vs Baltimore
Everyone is feeling the Ravens after their huge win over New England… including maybe themselves. A young team after a big emotional win versus a rested team coming off a bye spells trouble, even against Ryan Finley. The Ravens only beat Cincy at home by six less than a month ago, so take the Bengals to keep it respectable.
Miami +11 at Indianapolis
Fact #1: every single Colts game this season has been within one score. Fact #2: the Dolphins have covered the spread four straight times and nearly won two of those games. This is how these things go. Awful teams eventually figure some stuff out. Indy is banged up, and with Jacoby Brissett questionable, this is a good time to remind you that Brian Hoyer was third string for a reason. Miami is +450 to win outright. Just sayin’.
New Orleans -12 vs Atlanta
The Falcons are way too talented to be two-touchdown underdogs to any team, especially coming off a bye week. But the Saints just had their bye too, and Atlanta already has four losses by two TDs. Sometimes it’s just a good 7–1 home team against a bad 1–7 road team, no matter what Matt Ryan thinks.
THE GAMES OF THE WEEK
Carolina +5.5 at Green Bay
The Packers badly need to bounce back after getting embarrassed last week, but Carolina has been really good. Even with Kyle Allen, the Panthers are 5–1 against the spread, perpetually underrated. Green Bay doesn’t have much of a run defense, or much defense at all lately. Christian McCaffrey is ready for another big game.
Pittsburgh +4 vs Los Angeles Rams
This might actually be the most important Sunday game, with both teams just outside the playoff picture and desperate for a win. I’m really curious to see if the Rams have fixed their offense during the bye week, but with Jared Goff on the road against a suddenly resurgent Steel Curtain defense, we may not like the answer we’ll get. Did you know Pittsburgh has been in every game since that Week 1 blowout and won four of their last five games? They’re quietly hanging around and about to play the Browns, Bengals, Browns, Cards, Bills, and Jets after this. If Pittsburgh pulls off the upset, they could go on a run.
Seattle +6.5 at San Francisco (Monday)
The 49ers are 8–0 but their toughest opponents might actually be those two teams we just mentioned, the Rams and Steelers. The best quarterback that great defense has faced was… maybe Kyler Murray? Goff? Baker? Yikes. Hey, you know what QB they haven’t faced? The midseason MVP, Russell Wilson. The 49ers won the last matchup in overtime, but Seattle had won 10 in a row against San Fran before that. The 49ers might be missing their best offensive player in George Kittle, plus both offensive tackles, and this is a step up in competition. Seattle can pull within one game of the division lead with a win. Time for Russ to go have an MVP moment.
WEEK 10 BEST BETS
Dallas -3 vs Minnesota (Sunday night)
The Vikings have beaten the Cowboys 7 of 10 matchups since Randy Moss clowned them on Thanksgiving 1998. That’s not meaningful in any gambling way, but it remains one of my favorite sports memories of all time, so you better believe I’m taking every chance to mention it. As for this one? Both teams are better than you think, so it’s a pretty even matchup, but it’s also Kirk on the road in a night game and I’m no fool.
Arizona +5.5 at Tampa Bay
You never feel great picking a best bet in an irrelevant game between two irrelevant teams, but I’ve turned hard on the Bucs and I just think Arizona is the better team right now. Neither of these teams has any pass defense to speak for, and I trust Kyler Murray and Kliff Kingsbury to take advantage of that more than Jameis. There will be a lot of points here in what could actually be a pretty entertaining game. Take the over.
Oakland +1 vs Los Angeles Chargers (Thursday)
This pick was in yesterday’s Midseason Power Rankings. The Raiders are just the better team this season, and it’s time to bury the Chargers for good. ■
Last week: 11–3 Season total: 71–63–1 Best bets: 13–12–1
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