NFL Christmas! Week 16 picks against the spread

Christmas is here! Who will Santa deliver into the playoffs? Picks for every game with Ravens, Pats, and Packers best bets

NFL Christmas is here! It’s the gift we never asked for but can’t send back without a receipt. Thirteen games this weekend have playoff implications in a league that’s never had more parity. Nineteen teams can still make the playoffs, and five of them can clinch a playoff berth with a win this weekend. Six AFC teams can still make the playoffs without even having a winning record, and there’s still a scenario where three of them could do it all at once:

So with something at stake in almost every game and fantasy football Super Bowls across the nation, the picks have never been more important. We get two Saturday games, two on Christmas Day (Monday), and a full Christmas Eve slate Sunday.

What teams’ fans will get the win they wished for from Santa?

Nothing to see here

Denver +3.5 at Washington

Denver’s defense is suddenly good again and the team has won two in a row after losing eight straight. Meanwhile Washington’s offense has gone in the tank over the past month, and it’s really starting to feel like Kirk Cousins may head elsewhere this offseason for a fresh start. Could the Jaguars make Cousins a godfather offer? Might he head to New York? Maybe this is a nice showcase for Denver.

Cleveland +6.5 at Chicago

It’s hard to go winless for an entire season, so hard that it’s only been done once in NFL history. And it almost never comes down to the final game either. The ’07 Dolphins and ’11 Colts won their 14th game after 0–13 starts, but the penultimate game tends to be the one bad teams get. The ’77 Bucs were winless with two games left and won, and the ’80 Saints won only their penultimate game. Last year’s 0–14 Browns won their second to last, too. Wouldn’t a loss to the Browns be the perfect ending to this weird Bears season? They beat Pittsburgh, Carolina, and Baltimore but have stunk against everyone else, and Bears fans need a few weeks of panic after a loss to the Browns and a possible Jeff Fisher hire on the horizon. You can get +250 odds on Cleveland outright. Here come the Browns!

Arizona -3.5 vs New York Giants

The Giants are 2–12 and control their destiny for the №2 pick, and they could even smell a shot at the top pick if Cleveland wins earlier that day. The weirdo Cardinals have oscillated wins and losses all season long outside of one game. They lost last week so that must mean a win this one.

Need a little Christmas hope

Dallas -5 vs Seattle

This is an elimination game, and it might also be as close as either of these teams gets to the playoffs. Seattle can actually be eliminated already if both the Rams and Falcons win the early games Sunday. This is the 2017 Disappointment Bowl. These teams are a terrible 3–10 combined against teams at or above .500. They just aren’t good. Seattle’s defense is not what it once was, and after two ugly shutout first halves, it’s beginning to look like this is just Russell Wilson and a bad roster. Only three teams have allowed more rushing touchdowns than Seattle. They were ripped by Leonard Fournette and Todd Gurley the last two weeks, and now they face a rested Ezekiel Elliott. The Cowboys average over 28 points a game with Zeke. The Seahawks are almost always within striking distance late, but Wilson will need another MVP game to pull this one out.

Detroit -4.5 at Cincinnati

The Bengals look like a team that’s already on vacation. They didn’t even show up the last two weeks, losing 67–14 to the Bears and Vikings, and they already got their Christmas wish with Marvin Lewis stepping away. Detroit is 1–6 against current playoff teams but 7–0 against squads .500 or below, with five of those wins by double digits. They can still sneak into the playoffs and should take care of business here.

New York Jets +7 vs Los Angeles Chargers

The Chargers started 0–4, then went on a huge run and roped everyone back in, then blew it in Kansas City and are hanging on by a thread now. A loss here would kill any remaining playoff hopes, while a sixth Jets win knocks them out of the top ten and a high draft pick for a franchise quarterback. Add in the Chargers traveling east for an early game and playing in winter weather, and doesn’t this just feel like a result every fan involved will hate?

Bye bye Miss American Pie

Philadelphia -8.5 vs Oakland (Monday)

This one’s tricky since it’s the final game of the weekend and the Eagles may have already clinched the NFC 1-seed if the Vikings lose, but otherwise it’s a chance for a Philadelphia Christmas evening celebration. The Eagles are 6–0 at home with a winning margin of almost 20 points a game, and the offense looked as good as ever under Nick Foles last week. The Raiders are 2–5 on the road (counting the Mexico City game), with four of those losses by double digits. Live it up Philly fans. You deserve this, and it’s probably the last win you’ll get to watch all season.

Jacksonville -4 at San Francisco

This is actually a pretty interesting game, which might be the upset of the year. Handsome Jimmy Garoppolo remains perfect as an NFL starter and gets a little better every week, and the 49ers have won four of five and grabbed our attention. But those wins were against the Giants, Bears, Texans, and Titans, and this year’s Jaguars are nothing like any of those teams. Jacksonville’s defense is ferocious. The Jags have held eight opponents this year to ten points or less, and they know they have a shot at a bye week if they win out and see either Pittsburgh or New England stumble. The Jimmy G magic finally dies here.

Houston +9 vs Pittsburgh (Monday)

The Texans are terrible, just 1–7 in games Deshaun Watson didn’t start, and T.J. Yates is not an NFL quarterback. And all of that is terrible news for a Steelers team coming off a huge emotional letdown loss and one missing the most valuable non-QB in the league in Antonio Brown. This is the exact sort of game the Steelers do not show up for, on the road against a team they should crush. They’ve won only one road game by more than one score this season, surviving for three-point wins at Cleveland, Indy, and Cincy and losing in Chicago. They’ll probably find a way late, but the hangover is coming.

Win and you’re in

New Orleans -5.5 vs Atlanta

Whoever wins this game is in the NFC playoffs. Home field does not seem to matter in this rivalry, and the series has been swept by either team four straight years. That’s bad news for the Saints since Atlanta just beat them a few weeks ago, but that was an ugly Thursday night game and New Orleans was missing Alvin Kamara. Kamara is healthy now, and he and Ingram have this Saints team feeling like last year’s Cowboys, with a monster run game dictating the game’s pace while Brees and Thomas make the key pass plays when needed. Reigning MVP Matt Ryan is under 250 yards a game this year, and Atlanta just isn’t humming on either side of the ball. An Atlanta loss opens everything up for the other NFC playoff contenders. We need this.

Tampa Bay +10 at Carolina

The Panthers have dominated this series recently, winning seven of nine against Tampa. The Bucs are 4–10 but have taken their last three losses down to the final possession, and Jameis Winston is one of this year’s garbage time kings. The Panthers usually find a way, but only three of their ten wins are by double digits.

Los Angeles Rams -6.5 at Tennessee

This week’s shocking line sees Vegas viewing the Rams ten points better than the Titans with both teams in the playoff race, but it’s hard to get a handle on this Tennessee team. They have wins against the Jaguars, Seahawks, and Ravens but also lost to the 49ers, Cardinals, and Dolphins. The Titans would like this win, but next week’s home battle with the Jaguars is far more important. A Rams win here clinches the division and sends them to the playoffs for the first time since the Marshall Faulk era. Their high-powered offense has scored at least 26 in all but three games, and that’s a problem for a Titans defense that can’t stop anyone lately. Maybe Vegas is right.

Miami +10.5 at Kansas City

The Chiefs appear to be back with wins against the Raiders and Chargers, and the offense is rolling again with 29 points per game over the last three weeks. But Miami’s offense is clicking too, and the horrible 6–8 Dolphins can still make the playoffs with two wins and not as much help as you’d think. Miami lost their last four road games by 90, and Jay Cutler is playing in a must-win game. What could go wrong?

Week 16 best bets

Baltimore -13 vs Indianapolis (Saturday)

The Colts lead this series 10–4 all time, continuing to steal from Baltimore, but the Ravens have won two of three since Peyton left. The Colts remain this year’s most garbage team outside of Cleveland, and Baltimore beats up on bad quarterbacks and kills bad teams. Their four home wins are by 85 points, and they’ve covered a spread like this seven times already.

Green Bay +9 vs Minnesota (Saturday)

This line is nuts, because it feels like the Packers would probably have been favored if Aaron Rodgers were playing. Is Rodgers really worth 10 points? Packers fans say yes, because the team has been pretty worthless without him. Brett Hundley is 3–5, with all three wins by one score late and most of the losses ugly. But this is a rivalry game, and Green Bay blames Minnesota for their forgettable season (does Rodgers play defense too??) so they’ll be out for blood. Minnesota’s only road win by two scores this season was the Browns in London, and they’ve won only two of their last 12 trips to Lambeau. There’s just no way the game is this easy for the Vikings. It’s all Green Bay has left.

New England -11.5 vs Buffalo

The Patriots treat the Bills like a bye week. They’ve won 29 of 33 matchups this century, with one meaningless Week 17 loss, one with Jacoby Brissett, one in the Bledsoe revenge game, and one in which they led 21–0. They own Buffalo, with 13 of those 29 wins covering this big spread. The Bills have three ugly wins and three blowout losses since the weird Nathan Peterman move. New England almost blew their 1-seed (narrator: they did) and got a millionth chance from the league. They won’t screw this up again.

Week 15 record: 5–8–3 Season record: 115–100–10 Best bets: 27–16–1 Locks: 2–1

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