NFL Week 15 Picks against the Spread

Brady and Ben! Rodgers and Newton! Seahawks and Rams! Picks for every game with Jaguars, Ravens, and Titans best bets

It took three months, but the NFL finally got good.

Brady and Ben! Rodgers and Newton! Seahawks and Rams!

All but two games this week have playoff implications, and one of the duds already passed quietly on Thursday night. We even get two Saturday division battles this week, including a surprisingly intriguing Chiefs-Bolts battle Saturday night. It might be bowl season in college football, but the big boys are finally hitting all cylinders and playing interesting games.

We’re three weeks away from the playoffs, and fantasy football semifinals are underway. We’ve hit at least ten wins in each of the last three weeks, so let’s keep the good times rolling with our Week 15 picks…

Nothing to See Here

Indianapolis +2.5 vs Denver

Two weeks ago, Denver was on a road favorite on a seven-game losing streak and lost by 26. Last week they were home underdogs to a Jets team that was supposed to be one of the worst in the league and won by 23. Naturally they were back to road favorites again Thursday night actually won this time, but only after their their quarterback got hurt. What a weird team.

Arizona +5 at Washington

There’s literally nothing interesting about this game. Just take the points.

Oakland +3 vs Dallas

We get Aaron Rodgers and Cam Newton on Sunday. We get Brady and Ben. We get Rams and Seahawks. And still the NFL keeps this garbage game on Sunday night between two teams only in the playoff hunt in the minds of their fans. Dallas scored 68 points the last two weeks but did it against bad teams with the help of a bunch of turnovers and long broken plays. Neither team has been remotely predictable so take the Black Hole and the points and spend your Sunday night lamenting the loss of three great prime time options.

De Facto Elimination Games

Chicago +5.5 at Detroit (Saturday)

The Lions are eighth or ninth in the NFC playoff race, but a Charmin-soft schedule means a shot at 10–6. Detroit has won eight of the last nine matchups, but all but one of those was a one score affair, so it should be close. Chicago has either won or lost by one score ten times despite starting a rookie quarterback most of the year and playing ten games already against teams over .500. Feels like the Lions find a way to win a close one late.

Miami +3.5 at Buffalo

The Dolphins have a -82 point differential and still sit one game out of the AFC wildcard, and the Bills are one of the teams they’re chasing. Don’t look now, but the Dolphins offense is doing stuff. Jay Cutler has multiple touchdowns in his last six healthy games, and Kenyan Drake looks like this year’s late season fantasy breakout star. With any luck, a Dolphins win could end up basically eliminating both these teams.

Tampa Bay +6.5 vs Atlanta (Monday)

The Falcons are 8–5 and hold the lead for the final NFC wildcard thanks to a win against Seattle, but if things break wrong Sunday, this could be a must-win game. Atlanta still has to play the Saints and Panthers and can’t afford a misstep in Tampa. The Falcons will be flying high after a win against the Saints 11 days prior and could be caught looking ahead to their final two games. The Bucs play all three NFC South opponents still. This is their chance to play spoiler in front of a national audience.

The Battle for the NFC 1-Seed

Cincinnati +10.5 at Minnesota

How many more years of Marvin Lewis and Andy Dalton must we suffer? Cincinnati is 1–6 this season against .500+ teams, but Minnesota is coming off a brutal month-long stretch against playoff opponents, all banged up, and looking ahead to Aaron Rodgers next week. With Carson Wentz’s injury in Philly, Vikings fans can almost taste the 1-seed and a chance to win the Super Bowl at home. And when has anything ever gone wrong for Vikings fans?

New Orleans -16 vs New York Jets

Well that is certainly a line. Josh McCown’s surprising season is over and Bryce Petty was awful in his stead last week. P-P-P-Petty and the Jets had under 100 yards of offense, and now they hit the road to face the New Orleans buzz saw. Sixteen points seems like a lot, but the Saints have covered this line four times already this season.

Philadelphia +7.5 at New York Giants

This is a surprisingly high line for a team that just lost their leader and MVP candidate in Carson Wentz (I don’t want to talk about it). But the Eagles are more than just one player. They’re talented at every position and deep, and that’s what makes the Wentz injury really sting — this team really could have won the Super Bowl. But they may not be dead yet. Wentz has been great but he’s also benefited from playing in a QB-friendly system, one that Nick Foles can play well in too. Foles is one of the league’s best backups, and he’s won 14 of his last 18 starts for the Eagles. The Giants have lost six of their last seven, all by at least a touchdown. And anyway, it feels like we need to get Eagles fans hopes up one last time before we kick them in the balls again.

Four Awesome Monster Games

Kansas City +1 vs Los Angeles Chargers (Saturday)

Imagine someone at the start of October telling you the Chargers would be favored at Arrowhead two months later. Los Angeles (yep, still weird) was 0–4 finding every possible way to lose, while the Chiefs were undefeated with convincing wins against the Patriots and Eagles. The Chargers have won seven of nine since, the only losses by one score on the road against the Jags and Pats, and the Chiefs have lost six of eight. Still, Kansas City has won seven matchups in a row and, even after all their struggles, can basically clinch the division with a win. Besides, it’s the Chargers. Don’t they feel destined to be the 9–7 team no one wants to face in the playoffs… but doesn’t have to?

Seattle -1.5 vs Los Angeles Rams

The Rams have beaten the Seahawks six times since 2010, but five of those were home games. The Seahawks have won 11 of the last 12 matchups in Seattle. Los Angeles has a one-game division lead, but Seattle won in L.A. earlier this year and can take hold of the division if they sweep the series. For all the Rams have done this year, this still feels like a game Pete Carroll and Russell Wilson always win. Of course, that didn’t work in Jacksonville last week or against the Falcons on Monday night a few weeks ago, but the Rams are going to have to prove it one more time.

Green Bay +3 at Carolina

That sound you just heard was everyone in the NFC cowering in fear at the return of #12. Aaron Rodgers is back, and boy did the Packers miss him. In eight games without their MVP, the Packers eked out one-score wins against the Bears, Bucs, and Browns and lost by 60 in the others. It would be naive to think Rodgers is fully healthy and rust-free, and he has his work cut out for him. The Packers will have to win in Carolina, home against the Vikings, and in Detroit just to get to 10–6, and even then they’ll need some help. Can Aaron Rodgers really come off the IR and win seven straight playoff games? We’re about to find out.

Pittsburgh +3 vs New England

For a second time this season, a team on an eight-game winning streak is a home dog. The Steelers have the best record in the NFL and clinch the 1-seed with a win, and they keep winning every close game, with seven wins by six or fewer. But there’s all that history. The Patriots own Pittsburgh. New England has won 11 of the last 14 matchups, including the last four games and three AFC Championship games. Eight of those wins were by two scores, and six of them have come in Pittsburgh. But we’re taking the Steelers anyway. The Patriots supposed defensive renaissance came against quarterbacks like Peterman, Moore, and Osweiler, and Big Ben is on fire. New England has been killed all season by receiving running backs and small shifty slot receiver types. Ever heard of LeVeon Bell and Antonio Brown? Who needs history?

Week 15 Best Bets

Jacksonville -11 vs Houston

I never seem to get the Jaguars right in best bets, but let’s try again. The Texans have started seven games without Deshaun Watson this year and lost six of them by an average of almost 14 points. We know the Jaguars’ drill. They’ve either lost or won by 12+ in all but two games, and they’ve covered this line seven times, feasting on bad quarterbacks all year. Enter T.J. Yates.

Baltimore -7 at Cleveland

It feels like a bad idea to take a road favorite in a heated division battle, but this is not the rivalry you think. It’s as close to a bye week as it gets in the NFL, with the Ravens winning 17 of the last 19 matchups, and Cleveland losing 31 of their last 32 games. The Ravens beat up on bad teams and bad quarterbacks. It’s just what they do.

Tennessee +2.5 at San Francisco

That line is not a typo. The Titans are 8–5 and appear headed for the playoffs. The 49ers were 0–9 just a month ago. Of course that was before Handsome Jimmy Garoppolo took the reins. The Niners have now won three of four, but let’s not get carried away. Those wins were against the Giants, Bears, and Texans, none of whom have more than four wins. The Titans still have games against the Rams and Jaguars on tap. They need this one badly, and you have to believe even a banged up Marcus Mariota will find a way.

Week 14 record: 10–6 Season record: 110–92–7 Best bets: 24–16–1 Locks: 2–1

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