NBA Western Conference Predictions

We know how it all ends, but there will be some interesting twists and turns

Today is the first day of the NBA season, so I want to get my predictions down on digital paper before the early results and natural hot takes cloud my thinking.

#1: Golden State

I know this is the obvious and safest prediction, but there are a few red flags in the team that might cause them to under perform during the regular season.

Fatigue —tonight will be their 412th game in less than four years (the 2014–2015 season started on October 29th). Like last year, the Warriors will struggle to get up for regular season games.
Age — Andre Iguodala is the one guy who powers their death lineup and he will turn 35 this January. He is not the same guy who won the NBA Finals MVP in 2015, as his 3-point shooting and ability to finish at the rim have dropped off. However, his passing and defense still make him a viable two-way player, and his absence during the Houston playoff series could have meant the end of the Warriors without help from Chis Paul’s right hamstring and 27 consecutive missed 3-pointers.
Depth — Aside from Iguodala and Livington, the Warriors bench is limited, composed of guys who can shoot but not defend and vice versa.
Center — Until Demarcus Cousins recovers from his achilles injury (which is not even a certainty), the Warriors will have the same problems they’ve always had on the boards.
Draymond Green — With the lack of much offensive power at center, and Iguodala’s 3-point shooting, Green’s bad 3-point shooting (For Lonzo fans, Ball shot better from beyond the arc last season — for Lonzo haters, only Draymond Green and Marcus Smart shot worse from beyond the arc last season) will become more of an issue. The Warriors are now playing 3 on 5 on offense, but Curry, Durant and Thompson are so good it rarely matters.

#2: Houston

This was a strange off season for Houston. Because of their success, and Darryl Morey’s reputation as a genius, people have given him the benefit of the doubt with his new signings. Well, I’ve got some doubts:

Fatigue — in this case, it is the NBA in general and specifically the refs with James Harden and his mastery of flop-oeira, a mysterious form of basketball martial arts. The NBA caught up with tactics like the Kobe’s arm rip-through, and jumping forward into defenders and not giving them the chance to land, so I think Harden is going to be gifted fewer trips to the foul line this year. He’s been getting about 10 free throw attempts per game in his six regular seasons with Houston. In last year’s playoffs, that number dropped below 8. Subtracting even two free points per game is going to cost Houston in close games this year.
Defense — Subtract Ariza and M’bah a Moute, and you’ve got some leaks in the hull. Add Carmelo, and the ship is going down.
Shooting — Houston’s offense is built around spreading the floor with shooters to let their playmakers kill opponents in isolation. What happens when you have guys like MCW (career .250 3P%), Chriss (career .309 3P%) and Carmelo (career .347 3P%) on the floor, along with Capela? I’ll let those guys shoot 40 3-pointers per game as long as Harden and Capela can’t get to the rim. Also, look for some regression from PJ Tucker, who played incredibly well less postseason (.467 3P%).

#3: Utah

Utah was incredible for the last half of the season, going 31–8. I don’t think they will just continue at this pace, nor do I think they will be worse than last year, but here are the things that temper my prediction.

Regression—Donovan Mitchell played about as well as a rookie could possibly play, while Ricky Rubio had the best shooting year of his 7-year career (.352 3P%). If either guy comes down to earth a little, their point differential decreases from a projected 52-win team back to about 48 wins.
Gobert — This guy was amazing defensively, but has missed chunks of games in two of the last three seasons.
Road Record — To make the jump to being an elite 55+ win team, Utah has to show they can be a few games above .500 on the road. And that usually means having a good enough bench as starters wear down on road trips. I’ve got my doubts about the shooting of Crowder, Exum and Burks, their main bench players, to help in that area.

#4: Los Angeles Lakers

LeBron. LeBron. LeBron. And a heaping helpin’ of the young guys. Add a dash of the vets for some spice, and you’ve got a pretty tasty recipe for the upcoming season. Here are the things that could turn the dish sour:

Defense — the loss of Randle and Lopez kills the team at center. Even though McGee has proven to be a very solid starting center, no one is expecting him to play more than 20 minutes a game. The back ups are a work in progress for now (translation: unplayable against elite big men), so they could give up too many easy points.
Defense — Players like Kyle Kuzma, Michael Beasley, and Svi Mykhailiuk on defense are almost like a highly contagious disease. While they can play passable on-ball defense and work on the court, they struggle with rotations and communication which lead to easy baskets. Each guy needs to be separated and quarantined behind a wall of four solid defenders. They Lakers might be able to do it, but it’s a huge question mark, especially because Kuzma and Beasley are supposed to assume the defensive responsibilities of a small ball 5 (see #1).
Defense — The last thing that kills defense is playing with pace and turning the ball over in transition. The Lakers intend to push the ball up the court all the time, as their transition offense is their strongest weapon. Turnovers are the achilles heal of this type of attack, as they almost guarantee a fast break basket on the other end of the floor. The Lakers were one of the worst teams in the league last season in turnovers, and their ability to improve to league average in this area will be a huge step in reducing the number of easy points they give away.

#5: Denver

Denver has the greatest home court advantage in the history of the NBA, if not all sports. They will pick up about 5–10 gift games a season when a team has to play in altitude on the second night of a back to back. They were terrible on the road and terrible on defense, but still won 46 games last year, and missed the playoffs on the last day of the season on the road in Minnesota, IN OVERTIME. They ended up two games out of the #4 seed, so it’s not a stretch to think they can improve compared to the other teams.

Young Guys — Murray (21), Jokic (23), and Harris (24) and are all excellent young players, and they should improve a little this year. In addition, their bench players (Beasley, Lyles and Hernangomez) are all under 23, and look really good shooting from deep.
Redemption — the two key old guys for the Nuggets dealt with injuries last year that brought them down from earlier heights. Paul Millsap was an All-Star who signed a massive contract with Denver. Isaiah Thomas was a dark horse NBA MVP candidate in Boston two years ago, but injuries and attitude made last year a wasted season. Both players are looking for redemption and to prove their worth.

#6: New Orleans

Anthony Davis is a top-5 NBA player, and he’s got most of last year’s roster back with him. But they are one of the most confusing teams in the NBA because of the two key players that have changed.

Randle is a beast — Because the fans and media focused on hating Lonzo Ball and enjoying another miserable year of Lakers basketball, nobody but Lakers fans realized what happened when Randle became a small ball 5 and completely committed to the post game. He put up All-Star numbers when he played at least 30 minutes: 20.9 PPG, 9.9 RPG, 3.5 APG, 56.8% FG%, 72.4 FT%. His defense was above average as a switch defender, and he’s only 23 years old. Randle is happy to bang down low with just about anyone. He’s an ideal fit with Davis, who prefers to be a stretch 4 and supplies rim protection as a weak side helper.
Payton is the least — Losing Rajon Rondo was a huge blow to New Orleans. Payton is a good but not a genius passer, a poor shooter and a terrible defender. Look for Jrue Holiday to take all the point guard minutes, and Moore to slide back as a shooting guard.

As long as Alvin Gentry figures out how to use Randle correctly (I heard he was shooting 3-pointers in a preseason game, which is a formula for disaster), I can’t see New Orleans moving much in either direction.

#7: Portland

If the Trailblazers lost two more games last year, they would have been the 7th seed, so even if they play about the same, I felt like the other teams just got better.

The Law of Averages — Portland won a large number of close games because Damian Lillard would catch fire. As good as he is, I don’t think he’s Stephen Curry, so there has to be a little regression. And if he goes cold a couple of times, they are back to being a 45-win team.
Uncertainty — The untimely death of Paul Allen had to be a huge blow to the Portland community, as are Bill Simmons’ early rumor mongering of Lillard going to the Lakers. I have no idea if Simmons was just poking the Celtics’ most hated rivals for fun, but it’s hard to believe he would mention something like that in one of his podcasts.

#8: Oklahoma City

Paul George made a 3-part video along the lines of “ The Decision.” That is going to be the high point of the Thunder’s season, and here’s why:

Injuries — in the ultra competitive West, starting the season without key players is a recipe for disaster. Some people think Westbrook will play against the Celtics, but it will take some time to get the rust off his game. Andre Roberson is still out of the lineup, and the key piece to their defense. Without Roberson, their defense goes down a big notch, which leads to the other problem: they will have problems scoring points.
Shooting — aside from Paul George, OKC is not great from the 3-point line. These are flat out awful bad career percentages (For now, at least Lonzo has the excuse of it being just his rookie season): Westbrook (.311 3P%) Schroder (.320 3P%), Grant (.301 3P%), Ferguson (.333 3P%), and Luwawu-Cabarrot (.323 3P%). In other words, the guys who can run and defend can’t spread the floor. This is the recipe for a terrible offense.
Coaching — Billy Donovan does not bring much to the table. The Thunder were incredibly bad at the end of games, blowing large fourth quarter leads far too many times. In the West, they have no margin for error this year.

Near Misses

Los Angeles Clippers — I’m actually very impressed with the Clippers overall depth, but they lack a true star and that is why I don’t think they can pass a team like OKC or Portland. Doc Rivers seems to be able to coach as long as his son is not around, and he doesn’t act as a GM.

Minnesota Timberwolves — I love KAT’s potential, but everything else about Minnesota leaves me colder than their winters. Wiggins is an absolute disaster, a high volume scorer who can’t shoot, won’t play defense and signed to an onerous contract. And Thibs is basically a shorter, whiter (but not balder) version of Byron Scott. He’s a dinosaur disciplinarian who ran his best players in Chicago into the ground, then brought them to Minnesota. He was a defensive genius before Stephen Curry reinvented the NBA, so they are one of the worst defensive teams in the league.

The only thing they have going for them is Jimmy Butler, but he’s a walking hand grenade in locker rooms and the dysfunction of this team will return them to the lottery.

San Antonio Spurs — Popovich is a great coach, and the only reason an old, slow, and unathletic team made the playoffs last year. While they improved by getting a full season of Damar DeRozen in exchange for 9 games of Kawhi Leonard, they have three big problems:

They are older and still unathletic: Aldridge (33), Gay (33), Belinelli (32), Cunningham (31), Mills (30), and Gasol (measured in growth rings).
They lost their two best young players to injury, and both of them are guards.
They will be paying a mid range offense while the rest of the league is firing 3-pointers. If you can’t get easy baskets in transition or score quick points with 3-pointers, and your defense is going to suffer with the loss of Murray and Walker, how exactly do you win games in the West?

Dreaming of a future

Phoenix — They’ve got some nice prospects in Ayton and Bridges. It remains to be seen whether they can build a team with a guy who can’t shoot (Jackson) and a guy who can’t say no to a shot (Booker). Given their history of bad ownership, I’m betting against them.

Dallas — Rick Carlyle is a great coach, but a control freak. How else can you explain the way Rondo went from being the guy who led the Bulls to two road wins against Boston in the playoffs to being a complete no show in Dallas to destroying All-Star Damian Lillard in last year’s playoffs? Will he turn Doncic into a superstar or will the old school discipline turn off a kid who has been playing professional basketball since he was 14 and considers himself a veteran?

Memphis — I don’t see the Gasol/Conley era finishing up much of a happy ending.

Sacramento — Maybe Giles and Fox become really good players. But I’m not sold on anyone else on the team. They won’t be good and they don’t even have the consolation of a 1st round draft pick this year.

Summarize