Who Should’ve Been the #1 Pick in Each of the last 25 NBA Drafts?

We got LeBron and Duncan right. But why does it feel like almost every other #1 pick has been wrong?

There is almost nothing as valuable in basketball as the number one pick in the NBA draft. The number one pick is what dreams are made of. Fans look at that top pick and see a franchise player. They see points and rebounds, highlights and defense. Anyone taken with the number one pick is presumed to be a franchise savior. The number one pick will save they day. They might save the entire franchise.

Unfortunately, teams very rarely get the number one pick right. Drafting is hard, after all, much more finesse than science. There’s only so much teams can really know about 19 and 21 year olds on draft day, and for every LeBron James at number one, there are plenty of Anthony Bennetts and Andrew Wiggins to go around. Nailing the number one pick can save a franchise. Blowing the same pick can sink it.

So just who should have been the number one pick in each NBA draft the last 25 years? Let’s go through them, one draft at a time. Knowing everything we know right now about a player’s career, who should have gone number one?

1994 — Jason Kidd, #2 pick, over Glenn Robinson

Jason Kidd played almost two decades of basketball with four different teams, averaging almost 14 points, 7 rebounds, 9 assists, and 2 steals a game during the meaningful years of his career (excluding the final three as his minutes waned).

Kidd did a little of everything, leading the league in assists 5 times and making 10 All Star teams, and he even learned how to shoot after the early “Ason Kidd” moniker when he didn’t have a J. You can argue Grant Hill was more valuable at his peak, but remember, we’re assuming everything we know now, and unfortunately we know now that Hill could never stay healthy.

1995 — Kevin Garnett, #5 pick, over Joe Smith

Number 21 played 21 seasons in the NBA, making 15 All Star squads and 9 All NBA teams. Kevin Garnett is the Minnesota Timberwolves’ all time career leader in games, minutes, field goals, free throws, offensive and defensive rebounds, assists, steals, blocks, points, BPM, and both offensive and defensive win shares. He averaged 23 points, 13 boards, and 5 dimes over an eight year peak in Minnesota while consistently being one of the best defenders in the league.

Until last season, the Timberwolves franchise had never made the playoffs without Garnett — that’s how valuable he was to the franchise. Of course KG also added six seasons in Boston and finally got a long deserved ring there. He’s a Hall of Fame lock and one of the 10 or 20 best basketball players of all time.

1996 — Kobe Bryant, #13 pick, over Allen Iverson

It’s a tough break when Steve Nash, Ray Allen, or Allen Iverson — two MVPs and one of the greatest shooters of all time —can’t stake a claim to being the top player in their draft, but no one would argue with this choice. Kobe Bean Bryant was drafted thirteenth by the Charlotte Hornets before being traded straight up for veteran center, Vlade Divac. Oops.

Kobe played all 20 years of his career with the Lakers. He led the league in scoring four times and retired with 33,643 points, third most in NBA history. Bryant made 18 All Star teams, 15 All NBA squads, and 12 All Defense, and he finished top five in MVP voting an incredible 11 times. Of course Kobe also won five NBA championships, and regardless of where you place him among the all time greats, he certainly belongs there, and he’s been an inspiration to an entire generation of young basketball players.

1997 — Tim Duncan, correct #1 pick

Hey, we finally got a #1 pick right! There was never really much question about Tim Duncan, one of the most surefire number one picks in modern basketball. The Big Fundamental was the beacon of consistency, posting 12 straight seasons with 19 points and 11 rebounds to start his career.

Duncan made 15 All NBA, All Defense, and All Star teams. He was ever efficient in the post and dominant on defense, and he was the heart and soul at the center of two decades of San Antonio Spurs dynasty, leading the team to five NBA championships and winning three Finals MVPs and two regular season MVPs. Timmay is the greatest player of his generation.

1998 — Dirk Nowitzki, #9 pick, over Michael Olowokandi

With some apologies to Paul Pierce and Vince Carter, Dirk Nowitzki is one of the greatest and most important international basketball players of all time, perhaps second only to Hakeem Olajuwon. Dirk is still playing for the Dallas Mavericks 21 years later, now over 31,420 points and counting, good for sixth all time.

Nowitzki won an MVP in 2007, but he’ll always be remembered first for leading his Mavericks to an NBA title against LeBron’s Miami Heat in 2011, hitting a game winning shot and rightfully named Finals MVP. That ring was the icing on the cake of an already brilliant career.

1999 — Manu Ginobili, #57 pick, over Elton Brand

This is a tough call between Ginobili, Shawn Marion, and Elton Brand, but we’ll give it to the guy who did the most in the minutes he played. Ginobili was so good off the bench they should honestly name the Sixth Man of the Year award after him. Manu averaged at least 20 points, 5 boards, and 5 assists per 36 minutes for eight straight years — he just never needed to play that many minutes in the regular season.

Still, Ginobili ranks 29th all time in win shares per 48, ahead of players like Kevin Garnett, Kevin McHale, and Hakeem Olajuwon and just behind names like Julius Erving and Bill Russell. Ginobili was unlike any other player with his style, and he always did everything asked of him and more. He was the flair on four Spurs championship teams.

2000 — Hedo Turkoglu, #16 pick, over Kenyon Martin

Wait, what? The 2000 NBA draft class was an all time turd in the punch bowl. If you don’t want Turkoglu number one, do you prefer Kenyon Martin, Michael Redd, Mike Miller, or Jamal Crawford? Cuz those are your options. Woof.

Turkoglu leads the draft in win shares with his whopping 11 points, 4 rebounds, and 3 assists a game over 15 seasons. Hedo was more like Hedon’t on defense, but we don’t have many defensive options here, so we’ll go with a modern looking stretch four with a 38% career three. Eww.

2001 — Pau Gasol, #3 pick, over Kwame Brown

Pau Gasol was actually drafted by the Atlanta Hawks before being shipped off to the Grizzlies in a deal for Shareef Abdur-Rahim. He was later traded more famously in a deal involving his brother Marc. That trade sent Pau to the Los Angeles Lakers, where he would go on to lead the team in win shares for two NBA champion teams ahead of some other Bryant dude.

Gasol ranks top 50 all time in points, rebounds, blocks, BPM, PER, and win shares. He will go down as a Hall of Famer and one of the greatest international players of all time, somehow underrated after years of dominance.

2002 — Amar’e Stoudemire, #9 pick, over Yao Ming

Stoudemire looked like an all timer early on with the Suns before the injuries started to mount, but he’s still an easy choice in a draft where Carlos Boozer and another oft-injured stud, Yao Ming, are his top competition. For his peak with the Suns and that one good Knicks year (lol), Amar’e averaged 24 points and 9 rebounds, dunking guys into oblivion as the focal point of the Seven Seconds or Less Suns attack.

Hey, you know how Amar’e was nicknamed STAT? It’s not because he put up numbers. Stoudemire actually gave himself the name, an acronym for Standing Tall And Talented… lame.

2003 — LeBron James, correct #1 pick

If you’re counting, that’s only two correct #1 picks now in a decade. LeBron is obviously the top pick from his draft, but it’s still saying something when Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh, and Carmelo Anthony also go top five (along with Darko Milicic… d’oh!).

What even needs to be said about LeBron? How about this: Wade and Bosh are first ballot Hall of Famers, and LeBron has more win shares for his career than both of them combined. James has 15 All Star berths, 14 All NBA teams, 4 MVPs, and 3 championships, and those numbers can only go up from here. He is very obviously one of the greatest players in league history.

2004 — Dwight Howard, correct #1 pick

Dwight Howard has become the butt (tee hee) of many jokes late in his career, and people forget he was once one of the most dominant players in the entire league. There was even a year or two you could make a legitimate case for Howard against LeBron as the best player in the league.

Dwight Howard was the league’s best defender for the better part of a decade, winning three Defensive Player of the Year awards before the injuries started to mount. He also led the league in rebounding five of six years at his peak. Howard ranks top 25 all time in blocks, top 15 in rebounds, third in field goal percentage, and first in farts that destroyed an entire locker room.

2005 — Chris Paul, #4 pick, over Andrew Bogut

At the time of the draft and for many years into their career, Deron Williams or Chris Paul at point guard was a great and legitimate debate. CP3 has long since put that one to bed. The Point God is one of the best guard defenders in league history, leading the league in steals six of seven years at one point and making nine All Defense teams (and counting, maybe).

Chris Paul never won an MVP or had that one super memorable playoff run, but he’s the best point guard of his generation. He ranks third all time in assists per game and sixth in steals. He’s also #1 all time in career offensive rating, more or less guaranteeing a high powered NBA offense any time he stepped on a basketball court.

2006 — Paul Millsap, #47 pick, over Andrea Bargnani

Millsap is one of only three second round picks on this list, and he’s an admittedly controversial one. Knowing what you know now, would you rather take Millsap, LaMarcus Aldridge, or Kyle Lowry at the start of their career? I’ll go with Mr. Underrated.

Millsap never quite matched Aldridge’s per game numbers but was pretty analogous in fewer minutes, and he’s always been a dynamic defender and team player, constantly on winning teams. As for Lowry, he was never even really a starter until his fifth season and not KLOE until he was 27 or 28. He probably wouldn’t have even lasted on your team that long if you took him #1. Millsap was a winning contributor from day one, so he’s the preferred pick.

2007 — Kevin Durant, #2 pick, over Greg Oden

We will never know what might have been with Greg Oden, but Kevin Durant would almost certainly have been the better pick either way, as good as he’s been. Durant is one of the game’s most natural scorers, a four time scoring champion and already top 40 all time in scoring at age 30.

Most players hope to shoot 50/40/90 once sometime in a season. Durant is a seven footer averaging 49/38/88 shooting for his entire career. He’s also a two time NBA champion, winning Finals MVP each time, and he’s on track to add at least one more ring this year, even if he decides to bolt after that.

2008 — Russell Westbrook, #4 pick, over Derrick Rose

Russell Westbrook has become synonymous with statistics and triple doubles. He’s about to wrap up his third consecutive season averaging a triple double, doing it so easily now we all take it for granted. Westbrook has led the league in scoring and in assists two times each. He’s finished top five in MVP voting four years in a row, winning it once and more or less putting the Oklahoma City franchise on his back after Durant walked out the door.

Love him or hate him, Russell Westbrook is the heart and soul of his team, giving 110% every minute of every game and leaving it all on the court every night. He is the guy they were thinking of when they made up those cliches.

2009 — James Harden, #3 pick, over Blake Griffin

Avert your eyes, Oklahoma City fans — yes that is three consecutive Thunder players that should have been the top pick in their draft. But wait a second… isn’t this the draft Steph Curry was in? Yes it is. Let me explain.

Curry is awesome, and few if any in NBA history have matched his offensive production at his peak back to back MVP years. But Harden’s production is equally unrivaled, on his seventh consecutive season over 25 points per game and averaging 6 rebounds and 8 assists a game during that stretch.

So why Harden over Curry? Curry’s absolute peak for two or three seasons was a touch higher, but Harden’s peak has been longer. His durability has already been worth almost a full season extra, and he was also excellent early in his career while Curry took awhile to figure it out. It’s starting to look like Harden may age more gracefully, too. I know you think this is crazy. But look at the numbers and think of the entire career, and this is a real argument.

2010 — Paul George, #10 pick, over John Wall

A couple years ago, you could have made a very good case for Gordon Hayward or John Wall here, maybe even Boogie Cousins, but only one of those four is an an upward career trajectory. Paul George overcame his horrific Team USA leg injury and turned himself into a legitimate MVP candidate and one of the best two way players in the NBA.

PG’s numbers have gone up and down amidst changing roles and teams and injury recovery, but this year’s 28 points, 8 rebounds, and 4 assists a game along with a career thre pointer just under 40% make him one of the game’s best all around players.

2011 — Kawhi Leonard, #15 pick, over Kyrie Irving

Unlike the 2010 selection, this one looked on lock-down a couple years ago but might be back up for discussion now, depending on what you think of Kyrie Irving, Jimmy Butler, Klay Thompson, or Kemba Walker — quite a quartet. We’ll stick with Leonard thanks to his all world defense in addition to ever efficient and robot-like scoring abilities.

Kawhi has a career 60% true shooting percentage, absurd for a player with his volume. He is also an NBA champion and was the best player on the Spurs that season and a deserving Finals MVP.

2012 — Anthony Davis, correct #1 pick

Honestly, you can make a pretty legitimate case for Damian Lillard here, but we’ll stick with the Brow. Davis has made six All Star teams in seven seasons, along with three All Defense teams and three All NBA squads.

Davis is averaging 28 points and 12 boards over the last three seasons and has led the league in blocks three times in his career. It’s a shame he really hasn’t had a lot of help, with just one playoff series win so far, but you have to think he won’t be on the Pelicans too much longer. Anthony Davis is the whole package as a big man, and his career is only on its way up still.

2013 — Giannis Antetokounmpo, #15 pick, over Anthony Bennett

You might not be able to spell his name, but you better get used to appreciating his game. Giannis Antetokounmpo somehow gets better every year — his points and rebounds per game have risen every single season. In the 2018–19 season, he’s averaging 27 points, 13 rebounds, 6 assists, and 3 stocks (steals plus blocks), building a strong MVP case as the best player on the best team in the league, at least in the regular season.

Giannis looks like he could very well be the face of the NBA as the league moves into LeBron’s waning years. The Greek Freak looks like he’ll be high on MVP ballots for many years to come.

2014 — Nikola Jokic, #41 pick, over Andrew Wiggins

I know you think this pick should be Joel Embiid, but did you know Embiid is currently 8th among 2014 draft picks in win shares? He’s behind Dwight Powell, Jerami Grant, Jusuf Nurkic, and others. Jokic is the leader by a wide margin, and he’s also the leader in BPM and on court rating. Embiid is obviously the far better defender, but Jokic may be just as far ahead of Embiid on offense, and offense is more valuable.

Jokic is the fulcrum of a deadly Denver attack. He’s also been durable and healthy, and we know that’s a problem for Embiid, still barely 150 games played in five NBA seasons. Embiid has the higher ceiling and is certainly more entertaining off the court, but Jokic is awesome and a worthy #1 selection.

2015 — Karl-Anthony Towns, correct #1 pick

No question about this one. Karl-Anthony Towns is a stud, and he literally has twice the win shares of anyone else in the 2015 draft. Towns is averaging 22 points and 12 rebounds for his career and still improving, especially now that Jimmy Butler is gone and he is seeing more of the ball, and he’s still just 23 years old.

Towns is the complete package as a modern offensive big man, able to score from the post or facing up, and more than happy to knock down his career 40% three. Towns has been even more beastly post All Star break, averaging 30 points and 15 rebounds a game with a 124 offensive rating. Here’s hoping he can get some help in Minnesota soon.

2016 — Ben Simmons, correct #1 pick

Ben Simmons leads a relatively lackluster 2016 draft class in most counting stats despite missing his entire first season in the league. In his first year on the court, Simmons averaged 16 points, 8 rebounds, and 8 assists a game while defending at an All Defense level.

Simmons is already an All Star in year two, and he’s really unlike any player we’ve seen. Simmons passes like a point guard, rebounds like a power forward, and shoots like a traditional center — that is, not at all. He’s such a unique player it’s hard to know exactly what he’ll become, but any team would be happy to have the opportunity to find out.

2017 — Jayson Tatum, #3 pick, over Markelle Fultz

This would have been a no brainer last summer, so let’s not be a prisoner of the moment and throw baby Tatum out with the endless iso jumper bath water. It’s been a weird Celtics season, but Tatum still looks like one of the best young wings in the league.

Tatum is a good defender with a smooth and complete offensive game, an incredible scorer for a guy that just turned 21 less than a month ago. Go ahead and make your case for a lead handler like De’Aaron Fox or Donovan Mitchell, but two way wings like Tatum fit on any team and are impossible to find. I’ll tell you who you won’t be picking #1 again: Markelle Fultz.

2018 — Luka Doncic, #3 pick, over DeAndre Ayton

Again, let’s not fall prisoner of the moment. Trae Young is having an incredible second half of the season and looks like he could be the next Steve Nash with his shooting and passing angles, but Luka Doncic is the rightful Rookie of the Year, and he’s having a season unlike any teenager in history.

Cool Hand Luka is averaging 21 points, 8 rebounds, and 6 assists with a litany of step-back threes and an endless highlight reel of heroic end-game plays. Wonder Boy is already a cult hero, and he looks like a potential MVP candidate as the center of an efficient, modern offense. And he’s still just getting started.

2019 — Zion Williamson

A bonus pick! Zion Williamson would probably have to get both of his legs cut off at the knees to not be the number one pick in the 2019 draft at this point, and even then he’d probably just start dunking from his knees.

But since we’re here, just know that sometime between now and the draft, you’re going to start talking yourself into R.J. Barrett as a wing creator or Ja Morant as the next great dynamo point guard, or you’re going to worry about Zion’s weight or his conditioning or lack of a clear position. And I want you to know that you’re going to be wrong. Zion Williamson is the deserving 2019 number one pick. Lock it in.

Originally published as a freelance opportunity for thesportsdrop.com. Follow Brandon on Medium or @wheatonbrando for more sports, television, humor, and culture. Visit the rest of Brandon’s writing archives here. Thanks to Basketball Reference as always.