Gauging the NBA Buyout Market and How It Will Affect the Playoff Picture

Could Moe Harkless or Tristan Thompson change the NBA playoff picture? What other intriguing names could be available?

WITH THE 2020 NBA TRADE DEADLINE BEHIND US, it’s time to turn our attention to the buyout market. I’m still waiting for an oral history on when Buyout Market Season became a thing — does anyone remember this more than like seven years ago?? — but it’s a big part of the NBA calendar now. The Trade Deadline passes, lottery teams turn their attention toward a youth movement (aka tanking), and veterans are cut loose to be signed by playoff contenders.

Already, the Charlotte Hornets bought out both Marvin Williams and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist. Williams would have been one of the top names on the buyout market. He’s now headed to the 45–7 Milwaukee Bucks, which hardly seems fair, but that’s how this stuff works. The rich get richer. The Los Angeles Clippers cleared a couple roster moves in anticipation of the buyout market, while teams like the Houston Rockets and Philadelphia 76ers are perilously thin in need of some depth and versatility.

So which players will actually get bought out? I’ll leave that to Woj and Shams with all their sources. You never know what players are willing to leave money on the table to play for a contender. We can only guess, for now.

I scoured the league for intriguing buyout options and destinations, and these are names that intrigue me the most…

5 unlikely buyout options

Jeff Teague, Atlanta Nic Batum, Charlotte Aron Baynes, Phoenix Vince Carter, Atlanta Derrick Favors, New Orleans

These are veterans you’re familiar with, good enough that they might actually make a difference on a playoff team, but a buyout looks unlikely.

Atlanta just added Jeff Teague a few weeks ago and has badly needed a backup point guard all season. Nic Batum still has a huge player option for next season he’d be foolish to turn down now. Aron Baynes had a great start of the season but is now behind Deandre Ayton, but Phoenix seems determined to keep him around.

I’d love to see Vince Carter ask out so he could sign with a contender. How much fun would it be to see Vince get one more playoff run with the Clippers or Bucks? But Carter has always said he’s not a mercenary, and you have to figure Atlanta will honor his wishes and let him play this one out.

Derrick Favors is the best player in this entire article, and he could legitimately change the title picture were he available. But even though he’s on an expiring deal, it seems like the Pelicans would like to keep him around and hope to re-sign him next year, or they could’ve moved him for positive value at the Trade Deadline. If Favors did come available and signs with someone like the Clippers or Celtics, it’d be a game changer.

5 guys dependent on the 8-seed races

Trevor Ariza, Portland Hassan Whiteside, Portland Ian Mahinmi, Washington Reggie Jackson, Detroit E’Twaun Moore, New Orleans

The Blazers are only two games back from the Grizzlies in what is starting to shape up as a two-team race for the West 8-seed. Barring a significant Damian Lillard injury, Trevor Ariza and Hassan Whiteside ain’t going anywhere. Ariza has played super well for Portland, scoring 10ppg on 51/40/92 shooting. He’d help a lot of playoff rotations if he gave up his $1.8-million guarantee for next season and made himself available on the buyout market.

Whiteside and Ian Mahinmi are kind of whatever. They feel more like regular season big men depth.

Reggie Jackson is a name that’s starting to get some buzz, now that the Pistons appear to be ready to tank, but where does he get real playing time? None of the playoff teams are really ready to give out point guard minutes right now, so Jackson may need to wait for an injury to a key player that could leave some team desperate.

E’Twaun Moore is the most interesting name so far, to me. He’s a career 39% three-point shooter that slots into most rotations as a 3-and-D wing, and he’s on an expiring contract for a Pelicans team five games back from the 8-seed. New Orleans has a lot of young talent, probably too much to bring Moore back next season. If the Pels take another swoon and fall out of the race, Moore would be one of the more intriguing potential buyout candidates.

10 free agent retreads up for grabs

Darren Collison Jeff Green Iman Shumpert Kenneth Faried C.J. Miles Tyler Johnson Isaiah Thomas J.R. Smith Jamal Crawford Dion Waiters

Yeah, you know these guys. They’re just out there standing by, waiting for their cell phone to ring. Waiting… waiting… still waiting…

I listed these names in order of their intrigue. Darren Collison is by far the best on the list and the only definitely positive player. He was a heavily rumored target to one of his hometown L.A. teams but has reportedly decided to stay retired. It’s telling that that feels like a huge miss for the Lakers.

The Lakers are a likely destination for any number of these other guys. Notice how many of them are former LeBron teammates? Already, J.R. Smith and Dion Waiters have been rumored Lakers targets. Gross. The guys at the bottom of that list are chuckers that didn’t help teams much even when they weren’t old and washed.

Kenneth Faried feels like a regular season rotation big that watches in April and May. C.J. Miles can shoot but can’t stay on a court. Iman Shumpert at least plays defense, so at least he might play a few playoff minutes.

Jeff Green is the best free agent available, in theory. Of course, everything about Jeff Green has always been theoretical. Every team needs a versatile forward, and some team will inevitably talk themselves into Green. It won’t work out. Never sign Jeff Green.

8 buyout names not worth much

Bobby Portis, New York Wayne Ellington, New York Reggie Bullock, New York Boogie Cousins, L.A. Lakers Meyers Leonard, Miami Bismack Biyombo, Charlotte Evan Turner, Minnesota Brandon Knight, Detroit

You want one of these guys? Go ahead, have at it.

I don’t see much here, though it’s hilarious that three Knicks top a list I again ranked in order of most intriguing. Bobby Portis is talented and has a big game about once every 25 nights. Wayne Ellington and Reggie Bullock can shoot, and plenty of teams are happy to add a shooter.

No one here is playing real playoff minutes. Let’s move on.

The top 10 most interesting buyout options

After all that mess, these are the 10 most interesting potential names on the buyout market, counting them down from 10 to 1. Note that these are in order of intrigue, not necessarily in order of how likely they are to be bought out. I’ll leave that to the guys with all the sources.

Marvin Williams would have ranked near the top of the list, but he’s already headed to the Milwaukee Bucks. Here’s the best of what’s left…

10. Markieff Morris, Detroit

Everyone wanted Marcus Morris at the Trade Deadline, so maybe the losers will settle for his twin brother? Kieff is certainly the worse player at this point and can’t stay healthy, but he brings an edge to a team (for better and for worse) and adds versatility.

9. Allen Crabbe, Minnesota

Crabbe is a career 38.8% three-point shooter and… that’s basically it. You need someone that can shoot and literally not do anything else on a basketball court? That’s Allen Crabbe, who I rate slightly ahead of Ellington and Bullock for reasons I can’t really defend. He’s been part of positive offenses before, so maybe a team like Houston or Philly could add him off the bench.

8. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Charlotte

MKG has already been bought out, with Dallas a rumored destination. Kidd-Gilchrist is a former #2 pick with legitimately great defensive ability, but he’s never found enough offense to stay on the court. He’s 28-for-100 on threes in his career, which is basically one week for Russell Westbrook. Actually, Houston is an intriguing destination. Could MKG bang at center and play a weird Capela type role? I’m much more intrigued in him as a theoretical big than as a wing. I need four shooters around him to make him viable.

7. John Henson, Detroit

Henson posted a 156 offensive rating in his one game with the Pistons after being traded for Andre Drummond, so there’s that. Henson is a pretty solid defender that could fill a role somewhere as a rim runner. Dallas?

6. Kent Bazemore, Sacramento

Look, I’ve always liked Kent Bazemore too, but he is about the dictionary definition of a replacement player. Baze is one of those guys you think of as a 3-and-D guy, but his defense his slipped with age and he’s only ever been an average shooter. In eight season of NBA ball on five teams, Bazemore has a career high of 101 offensive rating. That’s really bad. Baze is one of those guys everyone would get excited about being available but he’s just not that good.

5. Alex Len, Sacramento

The Kings just traded for Len but they were really trading to get off Dewayne Dedmon and besides, it’s the Kings, so you never know. When it comes to NBA centers, my opinion is that there’s around 15 everyday starters and then something like 30 or 40 guys in the next tier. Len is in that group, and that makes him a useful addition to a team like the Clippers, Celtics, Rockets, etc.

4. Taj Gibson, New York

Maybe I’m stuck living in the past on this one, but as long as Taj Gibson is playing ball, I still think of him as a winner. The game has passed Gibson by in some ways since he can’t shoot and isn’t particularly big, but he’s still a mean defender that can be great for stretches, and he’s almost always part of an efficient offense. It’s just not that hard for me to imagine Taj playing a few big, emotional minutes for some team in the first or second round.

3. Denzel Valentine, Chicago

You can tell this buyout market is hopping when Denzel Valentine is a top-3 potential option. I’m just not ready to give up on Denzel. He can dribble and pass, he’s a versatile defender and quality shooter, and he has a really high basketball IQ. Valentine is a guy I’ve always thought would be better with better teammates around him, where his team defense and IQ are more valuable. I still feel like he could be a really nice seventh man for a good team, running the bench offense. I’d really like to see what he looks like on a real NBA team before I give up on him for good.

2. Tristan Thompson, Cleveland

Tristan is a guy I’ve had my eye on all season long. I thought he was an intriguing Trade Deadline target even though every Cavs fan is certain they plan on keeping him, and I’d finally given up hope before Cleveland traded for Drummond. What’s left for him now? The Cavs owe two-thirds of their cap to centers, and it’s hard to see Thompson back next fall. As a Rich Paul client, maybe it’s time for TT to use his connections and move on. Perhaps he thinks he has enough money and is ready for another title run.

I would’ve bet anything before the season that Thompson would end up with LeBron in L.A., but they may not need him the way Dwight Howard and JaVale McGee are playing. He could head to L.A. anyway and make a title-swinging impact for the Clippers, and I’d love him in Houston, Boston, or Dallas too. Thompson’s averaging a career-high in both rebounds and points, and he’s a versatile defender that sets hard picks and rolls well. If he does hit the buyout market, he’ll be a scene-changing addition for whoever nabs him.

1. Moe Harkless, New York

I didn’t think Harkless was a huge loss for the Clippers when they included him in the Marcus Morris trade, but that’s because it’s the Clippers — they already have super elite wing defenders that can also play offense, and Harkless probably can’t stay on the court once the calendar hits June.

But for a team with less realistic hopes of June ball, Harkless is still a pretty intriging option. He’s a true elite wing defender and will especially be a target for West teams hoping he can guard LeBron, Kawhi, and PG. The problem, of course, is that Harkless is a career 32.6% three-point shooter and doesn’t do much on offense, so it takes the right fit.

That might rule out Houston, who would rather outscore LeBron and Kawhi than defend them. Dallas is an obvious fit. Harkless is a better Dorian Finney-Smith or maybe they just play them both. But the Mavs upside still feels like a hard-fought round one series. Could Denver be a possibility? Will Barton has faded fast, and the team’s wing rotation is still a bit shaky. They certainly don’t have that one go-to defender.

My sleeper destination is the Oklahoma City Thunder, basically as the Andre Roberson the team has never gotten since Roberson got hurt. Do you want to play against a lineup of Chris Paul, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Moe Harkless, Danilo Gallinari, and Steven Adams? I sure don’t. There’s plenty of injury downside in that lineup but it’s pretty nasty on both ends, and I think that team could go toe-to-toe with any non-L.A. team out West and maybe even push the Lakers or Clippers.

So could Moe Harkless or Tristan Thompson be the missing piece that changes the playoff picture? Only one way to find out… ■

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