Breaking Down the Massive 4-Team NBA Blockbuster Trade
The Rockets, Wolves, Hawks, and Nuggets swapped 12 players in the biggest NBA trade in 20 years. So who won the deal?
WHILE YOU WERE SLEEPING LAST NIGHT, THE NBA EXPLODED WITH ITS BIGGEST TRADE IN 20 YEARS. The Houston Rockets, Minnesota Timberwolves, Atlanta Hawks, and Denver Nuggets combined for a four-team blockbuster trade involving Clint Capela, Robert Covington, 10 more players, and a handful of draft picks.
In all, 12 players were moved, the most since Patrick Ewing was traded to the Seattle SuperSonics in 2000, if that gives you any sense of how rare these massive blockbuster deals are. The Rockets went all-in on small ball, while the Hawks got a center they coveted. The Wolves went fishing for assets, while the Nuggets got one for a few players they weren’t using much.
So who won and who lost the deal, and how does everything shake out for all four teams? Let’s break the trade down one team at a time…
DENVER NUGGETS
Denver gives:
Malik Beasley, Juancho Hernangomez, Jarred Vanderbilt
Denver gets:
2020 Houston first, Noah Vonleh, Shabazz Napier, Keita Bates-Diop, Gerald Green
We’ll start with Denver, because they’re easy.
Despite the number of names here, there’s not a ton that needs to be said. Malik Beasley and Juancho Hernangomez are talented but neither has really established themselves in Denver. Both will be free agents this summer and would’ve surely been expected to leave. Juancho and Vanderbilt weren’t even in the rotation. Beasley was, depending on the night, but pretty low on the totem pole.
Essentially Denver consolidated three low-value assets whose value was about to expire and turned them into Houston’s first-round pick. That should come in the 20-to-25 range and essentially replaces Denver’s own pick, which they traded for Jerami Grant. So in a way, the Nuggets traded this trio for Jerami Grant, which works. Otherwise they got a pick which probably gets traded again as a singular asset. That’s good work.
There’s a decent chance no one Denver traded here would have even played in many of their playoff games this year. If you need a reminder, here’s the talent ahead of those names in the pecking order: Murray, Harris, Barton, Millsap, Jokic, Grant, Porter, Morris, Plumlee, and Craig. That’s 10 guys, and both Napier and Vonleh can play, too. Vonleh’s even good enough to allow Denver to move Plumlee’s expiring deal if they can find a second trade before tomorrow.
It stinks to move on from young talent, but Denver was going to lose these guys for nothing this summer. Getting a pick instead at very little cost is sweet.
ATLANTA HAWKS
Atlanta gives:
2020 Brooklyn first, Evan Turner, 2024 Golden State second
Atlanta gets:
Clint Capela, Nene Hilario
Atlanta is a pretty clean analysis too. Nene and Turner are irrelevant. Turner is bad money on an expiring deal, and Nene will be cut in a few days. I’m not too sure why the Hawks had to include the Warriors pick here, but it’s hard to care too much about a second-round pick five drafts away.
Essentially the Hawks traded a first-round pick for Clint Capela. And that sure seems like a slam dunk.
First, note that this is Brooklyn’s pick, not Atlanta’s. The Hawks got this one for taking on Allen Crabbe’s bad salary into cap space they weren’t using anyway, and now they’re moving that pick for Capela. That’s awesome business. It’s also great business for the Hawks trading their least valuable pick, keeping all of their own. The Nets pick should be in the 15–to-17 range this year in a bad draft. There’s little chance the Hawks could’ve gotten someone anywhere nearly as good as Capela, and it would’ve taken years to develop them and find out even if they did.
I love the Capela fit in Atlanta. The Hawks had one of the worst center rotations in the league and badly needed a defensive center. Capela is a good defender and a great rim runner and rebounder. As a sheer talent, Capela is just fine, and honestly, he’s probably a little worse than he looks so far because Houston’s system and James Harden have surely inflated his value.
But as an asset, Capela is much more valuable. He’s only 25 years old and on a four-year $66-million contract. That’s a very palatable deal that will pay for Capela’s entire prime. Is Capela a better player than Andre Drummond or Steven Adams, other names the Hawks had been rumored to trade for? No, probably not. But as an asset, he’s far more valuable. Drummond would’ve likely cost Atlanta almost twice as much to sign this summer. With Capela, Atlanta still has well over $50 million in cap room, most of any team.
Capela fits what Atlanta is doing far better than Drummond or Adams too. The Hawks already have guys that need the ball in their hands. Capela sets mean screens and rolls hard to the rim, and he’s #blessed to go from one top-10 passer (arguably two) to another in Trae Young. On defense, Capela does the dirty work and is exactly what this team needs. He isn’t going to be some magical fix for a team with Young and John Collins, but he’s a start, and he’s far better than anything the team had.
Atlanta will eventually need to start doling out money to Trae, Collins, and Kevin Huerter on contract extensions, and then to De’Andre Hunter and this year’s likely top-7 pick on down the line. Capela’s bargain deal will be even more valuable on this roster as it ages.
As an asset with a contract, I’d rank Capela as a top-10 non-rookie-deal center in the league. He might even be top-5 or 7. He’s obviously behind guys like Jokic, Towns, Embiid, and Gobert. I think anyone else is arguable. I’d probably prefer Brook Lopez, Myles Turner, Jusuf Nurkic, and a few others along with a number of rookie deals. The point is this — an above average starting center on a cheap deal is very valuable, even in the modern NBA.
Can Capela play well enough to stay on the court when the games matter most? He couldn’t for Houston. That’s not going to be a problem for Atlanta, who won’t be playing in any conference finals the next four years. Great deal either way.
MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES
Minnesota gives:
Robert Covington, Shabazz Napier, Noah Vonleh, Jordan Bell, Keita Bates-Diop
Minnesota gets:
2020 Brooklyn first, Malik Beasley, Juancho Hernangomez, Jarred Vanderbilt, Evan Turner
It really feels like this deal makes some sense for all four teams, but Minnesota’s side is definitely the one I like least. At best, it’s incomplete. At worst, it’s a rushed panic move.
The Wolves gave up the best player in the trade in Robert Covington. In return they got potentially nothing that affects the team long-term. That’s a problem.
You might not know many of the names in this deal, so here’s a quick breakdown. Napier won a championship at UConn but hasn’t done much in the NBA, though he’d been starting at point guard. Vonleh and Bell are serviceable bench big men. Bates-Diop has some upside but never found much playing time. All four of those names are gone but aren’t a real loss. Napier, Vonleh, and Bell were summer signings that made some impact and are probably being moved on in good faith so they have a chance to get to the playoffs. Losing KBD is a bummer.
Evan Turner is a longtime veteran that has never impressed me as an NBA player. He’s essentially my nightmare scenario outcome for Jarrett Culver as a good-not-great defender that can’t shoot and needs the ball in his hands on offense but doesn’t pop athletically. Hopefully Culver can learn some of Turner’s positives the next few months, if Turner isn’t bought out.
The Brooklyn pick is… fine. It will probably end up in the 15-to-17 range in a pretty bad draft this year. That makes it a lottery ticket, or maybe it gives Minnesota ammunition to add to its own pick to move up a few spots for a shot at a star. Gerrson Rosas is hunting stars, and this is all just asset play, churning through names and assets, trying to find something that works.
The Nets pick is lottery protected, so there is a bit of risk involved here. The East playoff picture is pretty soft, but if Kyrie Irving gets hurt again and the Nets miss the playoffs, the pick rolls over to next summer when it would likely be in the #25 range with Kyrie and Kevin Durant back. That would be relatively disastrous for the Wolves since the pick is the crown jewel of the trade for them.
Malik Beasley is a classic gunner two guard. He’s the sort of guy that can win you a game if he gets hot or shoot you right out of when if he’s not. Beasley has made 39% of his threes the last two seasons and hit 86% from the line. He’s the sort of shooter Minnesota simply did not have, and he can create his own shot and isn’t afraid of the moment. Beasley isn’t much of a passer and isn’t good on defense — hence the classic gunner two. But he can score in a hurry and it’s easy to see him fitting well as a nice complement next to Culver.
Juancho Hernangomez has been a longtime favorite for nerds like me, though he might be a AAAA player. He looks good in Summer League and international play (for Spain) but has never established much playing time, and he’s a tweener big man that lacks strength. Juancho has started 37 games in his career, averaging 11/7 with 46/39/75 shooting splits. He fits theoretically next to Karl-Anthony Towns, though it will be a disaster defensively.
Jarred Vanderbilt is a lottery ticket, like KBD was. Vanderbilt is a genuinely incredible rebounder who doesn’t really have an NBA position or any other NBA skills. Can’t hurt to take a look. Vanderbilt is the sort of out-of-the-box player Rosas loves giving a chance to. He fits with guys like Naz Reid, Jake Layman, and Jordan Bell as Rosas hunts cheap value, and eventually someone will hit.
With both Beasley and Juancho, the key factor here is that both are in the final year of their rookie contracts. That means they’ll both be free agents this summer, and it ostensibly means the Wolves could’ve signed either one for free this summer, though that’s not really true. The team is strapped for cap room and Denver could’ve matched any offer.
You’d have to think the team definitely plans on keeping Beasley. His contract negotiations will directly determine how valuable he is. Many restricted free agents get screwed in negotiations, and in a summer with very little cap room out there, a patient Minnesota could luck into a bargain Beasley deal. But the flip side could also happen. All it takes is one team, and a lot of teams can use a young shooter. What if someone offers Beasley $60 million over the next four years? The Wolves will now be compelled to match so they don’t walk away from the Covington trade with no players to show for it, and now they’re stuck with a very overpriced player. That’s the risk-reward game here.
The same is true with Juancho, but to a far lesser extent. He could actually get some starts next to Towns, but his market and eventual price should be much more tepid. It’s important the Wolves play Hernangomez enough to see what they’ve got. He could easily become a bargain deal if they choose to keep him.
Beasley, Hernangomez, and Vanderbilt are nice young assets with upside. That’s exactly what this roster needs right now.
But were they worth the price?
Covington was the best trade asset on the roster, and now he’s gone, and all Minnesota has to show for it are a few expiring rookie deals and a middling pick in a bad draft. Minnesota essentially traded Covington for two first but then flipped the Houston first for the Denver players.
But what was the urgency to trade Covington now? 3-and-D players are always valuable, and Covington’s the sort of guy that would help almost any playoff team. He still had 2-and-a-half years on his deal and plays on one of the league’s most valuable non-max non-rookie contracts.
Was this really the best Minnesota could get for Covington? Sure, the Nets pick is a handful of spots higher than a pick from a playoff team, but what’s that really worth in this draft? Is that Brooklyn pick really worth much as an outgoing trade asset in a deal for D’Angelo Russell or whoever the next piece is? Is it worth anything comparable to Covington? I find that very hard to believe.
Covington was always going to get traded, and sooner than later, but this felt like a rushed decision. He’s a good NBA starter, and Minnesota didn’t get any starters in return. Beasley probably won’t be one, and neither will the draft pick. I think Minnesota should have held onto Covington and waited for the right deal. Now they’re still stuck with bad Wiggins and Dieng contracts and no real way to get off those contracts, let alone adding to the team.
The good news is the team should stink the rest of the season, so a top-5 pick should be on its way. The defense will be disastrous without Covington, and the team literally doesn’t have an NBA point guard on the roster. Trading Covington now is sort of like trading up a few spots in this summer’s draft, and it’s a draft loaded with lead guard prospects, so now Minnesota is in much better position to get their pick of the litter.
Baby steps I guess.
HOUSTON ROCKETS
Houston gives:
2020 Houston first, Clint Capela, Gerald Green, Nene Hilario
Houston gets:
Robert Covington, Jordan Bell, 2024 Golden State second
The Rockets are the most interesting team in the trade as the only team to trade one starter for another, especially since those starters are so different. We’ll see if this Rockets team can still sing a Capela. *cough cough*
Daryl Morey and Mike D’Antoni have never been half-measure guys. Now they go as all-in as they’ve ever gone before on threes and small ball. With Capela gone, Covington and Bell are now the tallest rotation player on Houston’s roster. The Rockets will play Covington and P.J. Tucker as their effective big men in their biggest minutes this season. Covington is 6'8"; Tucker is 6'6" in sneakers.
Capela was good for the Rockets, but it’s hard to forget how easily he was played off the court in Houston’s biggest playoff moments. Houston is all-in on the present with what they’ve invested into James Harden and Russell Westbrook, who make a combined $783 billion or so over the next few years. This year is their best window at a title — Russ, Harden, and Tucker will only get older, and the window is more open this season with the Warriors and Nets sitting this year out as stars heal.
Can Houston really win a title?
Before this trade, the answer was a pretty easy no for me. Westbrook is not what he once was, Capela can’t stay on the court against the league’s elite, and the team has no bench or backup plan.
Now? Maybe.
The best version of Robert Covington is an elite, game-changing player. Covington is a career 36% three-point shooter, and that number should tick up a couple percents with two elite passers and all the spacing in the world. He’s made 38% of his career corner threes. Covington can’t create or even dribble really, but he won’t be asked to do either of those things in Houston — just shoot the second he touches it. A 38% three is equal to 1.14 points per possession. That’ll do just fine in this offense, or any offense really, and Harden will do the rest.
Capela’s absence is also super helpful for Westbrook. Before the trade, Houston’s best lineups always had two non-shooters on the floor. Now it’ll just be Russ, and he should benefit from the added spacing with Covington standing in the corner instead of Capela waiting with his defender in the paint. Watch Westbrook’s numbers, especially his two-point %, rise.
Covington in place of Capela should also help the defense. Houston has been best defensively when it switches everything, and Covington is a perfect fit as such. He’s going to struggle if he has to defend LeBron, Giannis, or any star big men, but guess what? Houston had no answer to any of those guys anyway. Their better answer is strong team defense with quick rotations, and Covington will be the best on the team at that, far better than Capela.
Yes, Houston is going to have some ugly games when guys like Anthony Davis, Joel Embiid, and Nikola Jokic crush them in the post. But you know what? I think the Rockets are perfectly fine with opponents feeding the post all game. This is the team that’s all-in on 3>2. Go ahead, post up all game — eat your heart out. You’re still going to miss plenty of shots, and Houston will still shoot enough threes to make the math work.
And make no mistake about it — those three-point attempt numbers will be higher than ever now, probably approaching 50 a game, with Capela gone. And that’s what makes Houston so very dangerous now: variance. Three pointers are fickle. Sometimes you miss 25 in a row with your championship hopes on the line. Houston knows that full well. But sometimes they drop, too.
What will Houston do in a playoff series against Brow or Jokic? That’s a great question. But what will either of those teams do if Houston hits 25 of their 50 threes that night or if James Harden is the best player on the court? Those are both real possibilities now, and by the way, this new team matches up a whole lot better with teams like the Clippers and Bucks.
Houston is a much higher variance team now, and that’s a good thing. Would you rather be the 7th best team in the league with variance that could make you 4rd or 12th best any given night? Or the 9th best team with the downside of the 20th best team but the upside of 2nd or even 1st? Houston prefers the latter, and this is their bet on variance and math and a chance at the unthinkable.
And it might not work! Variance goes both ways. Houston could easily lose in the first round in five games, blow it up, move on from Morey and D’Antoni, and start over. But they now have the upside to make a Conference Finals run, and if they get that far, anything can happen.
That’s why the Houston Rockets are going all-in on Robert Covington and small ball. Can’t wait to see if it works. ■
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