My Final Predictions for the 74th Emmy Nominations

The 74th Primetime Emmy Award nominations are announced on Tuesday, July 12th at 8:30am. Here are my predictions in 16 major categories covering comedy series, drama series, limited series, and made-for-television movies.

Author’s Note: This article is my preview of the 74th Emmy Award nominations. To read my reaction to the nominations, click here.

10 THINGS TO KNOW BEFORE YOU READ MY PREDICTIONS

1. For those of you who don’t know, the Emmys are television’s top honor. They are what the Oscars are to film, the Tonys are to theater, and the Grammys are to music. (If one individual wins one of each, they are known as an EGOT recipient.)
2. This year will mark the 74th consecutive year the ceremony has been held. The first ceremony aired on January 25, 1949. (Fun fact: the legendary Betty White, who passed away in January just weeks shy of her 100th birthday, scored her first nomination at the 3rd Annual Emmys in 1951.)
3. The eligibility period for this year’s Emmys is June 1, 2021 and May 31, 2022. Thus, any series that aired all (or the majority of) its most recent season inside that time frame is eligible.
4. The Emmys are voted on by members of the Academy of Television Arts and Sciences (ATAS), which currently numbers around 24,000. Voting for the nominees is done by the respective branches (e.g., actors vote for the acting categories, directors vote for the directing categories), with the exception of the series awards which all are allowed to vote on. The voting period for nominations occurred between June 16 and June 27.
5. Beginning last year, Outstanding Comedy and Drama Series will now have eight nominees each, up from seven the prior year and the traditional five that lasted several decades. The number of nominees in other categories will be determined by the number of submissions (or possible nominees). For example, a category will have five nominees if it has 20–80 submissions, but six nominees if it has 81–160 submissions, seven nominees if it has 161–240 submission, and eight nominees if it has more than 240 submissions.
6. The ceremony is split into two, with the “major” categories (series, lead and supporting acting, writing, and directing) announced during the main ceremony and several dozen “minor” categories (mostly technical achievements) being presented at the Creative Arts Emmy ceremony, which takes place the preceding weekend (September 3 and 4).
7. The winners will be voted on from August 12 to August 20 by special judging panels made up of a subset of ATAS members.
8. This year, the Emmys will air on NBC and stream live on Peacock on Monday, September 12th at 8pm EST/5pm PST. Virtually no other details about the ceremony have been released yet, including who will host or where it will be held.
9. Last year, 73% of the nominees I predicted ended up reaping nominations. I am hoping I can increase that this year, but given the massive amount of eligible programs and large amount of turnover in eligibility, the Emmys are increasingly challenging to predict.
10. J.B. Smoove (Curb Your Enthusiasm) and Melissa Fumero (Brooklyn Nine-Nine) will announce the nominees at 8:30 AM PDT on Tuesday, July 12th. The announcement can be watched live on the Emmy website.

COMEDY SERIES PREDICTIONS

Outstanding Comedy Series: Only 1 of the 8 nominees in this category at the 72nd Primetime Emmy Awards was eligible for the 73rd (Netflix’s recently-wrapped The Kominsky Method), resulting in unprecedented turnover in the category last year. However, of last year’s 8 nominees all but Kominsky remain eligible this year. That means that last year’s winner Ted Lasso and nominees Black-ish, Cobra Kai, Emily in Paris, The Flight Attendant, Hacks, and Pen15 could all be back. It is highly unlikely they all will make it back, however, given fierce competition from freshman breakouts Only Murders in the Building, Abbott Elementary, The Afterparty, Reservation Dogs, Schimgadoon!, Julia, Ghosts, Our Flag Means Death, and The Chair as well as the return of multiple series that were previously nominated here like Curb Your Enthusiasm, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel, Insecure, Atlanta, What We Do in the Shadows, and Russian Doll. There is also the possibility that deserving shows like The Other Two, The Great, and Girls5eva will break in after being previously snubbed. This category is going to be an epic bloodbath with several prior nominees bound to be excluded.

• Predicted Nominees (8): Abbott Elementary (ABC); Barry (HBO); Curb Your Enthusiasm (HBO); Hacks (HBOMax); The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel (Prime Video); Only Murders in the Building (Hulu); Ted Lasso(AppleTV+); What We Do in the Shadows (Fx)
• Alternates: Atlanta (Fx); Reservation Dogs (Fx/Hulu)

Outstanding Lead Actress: Of last year’s 5 nominees, 3 are eligible this year — Jean Smart (Hacks), Tracee Ellis Ross (Black-ish), and Kaley Cuoco (The Flight Attendant). They will be facing off against previous winner Rachel Brosnahan (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel); previous nominees Issa Rae (Insecure), Natasha Lyonne (Russian Doll), and Sarah Jessica Parker (the Sex and the City sequel And Just Like That); and newcomers Quinta Brunson (Abbott Elementary), Selena Gomez (Only Murders in the Building), Sandra Oh (The Chair), Sarah Lancashire (Julia), and Cecily Strong (Schmigadoon!). There is also the possibility that Elle Fanning (The Great), Helene Yorke (The Other Two), or Renee Elise Goldsberry (Girls5eva) will break through after being previously snubbed for their performances.

• Predicted Nominees (6 slots): Rachel Brosnahan, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel (Prime Video); Quinta Brunson, Abbott Elementary (ABC); Kaley Cuoco, The Flight Attendant (HBOMax); Issa Rae, Insecure (HBO); Tracee Ellis Ross, Black-ish (ABC); Jean Smart, Hacks (HBOMax)
• Alternates: Selena Gomez, Only Murders in the Building (Hulu); Sandra Oh, The Chair (Netflix)

Outstanding Lead Actor: Of last year’s five nominees, three are eligible again this year — Jason Sudeikis (Ted Lasso), Anthony Anderson (Black-ish), and Kenan Thompson (Kenan). The latter seems unlikely to score a repeat nomination given the unceremonious cancellation of his show several months ago, but Sudeikis is a lock and Anderson is a strong bet. There is an avalanche of strong competitors here this season including previous winners Donald Glover (Atlanta) and Bill Hader (Barry); previous nominees Larry David (Curb Your Enthusiasm) and Don Cheadle (Black Monday); and newcomers Steve Martin and Martin Short (Only Murders in the Building), Keegan-Michael Key (Schmigadoon!), John Cena (Peacemaker), and Rhys Darby (Our Flag Means Death). There is also the possibility that Nicholas Hoult or Drew Tarver will break through after being previously snubbed for their performances on The Great and The Other Two, respectively.

• Predicted Nominees (6 slots): Anthony Anderson, Black-ish (ABC); Donald Glover, Atlanta (Fx); Bill Hader, Barry (HBO); Steve Martin, Only Murders in the Building (Hulu); Martin Short, Only Murders in the Building (Hulu); Jason Sudeikis, Ted Lasso (AppleTV+)
• Alternates: Don Cheadle, Black Monday (Showtime); Larry David, Curb Your Enthusiasm (HBO)

Outstanding Supporting Actress: All of last year’s 7 nominees in this category are eligible again this year — Ted Lasso’s Hannah Waddingham and Juno Temple; Saturday Night Live’s Aidy Bryant, Kate McKinnon, and Cecily Strong; Hacks’s Hannah Einbinder; and The Flight Attendant’s Rosie Perez. All 7 could repeat but they have some additional competition this year from previous winner Alex Borstein (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel); previous nominees Sarah Goldberg (Barry), Yvonne Orji (Insecure), Marin Hinkle (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel), and Zazie Beetz (Atlanta); and newcomers Amy Ryan (Only Murders in the Building), Sarah Niles (Ted Lasso), Holland Taylor (The Chair), Ariana DeBose (Schmigadoon!), and a trio of fierce contenders from Abbott Elementary — Janelle James, Sheryl Lee Ralph, and Lisa Ann Walter. There is also the possibility we will see the previously snubbed Molly Shannon (The Other Two), Meg Statler (Hacks), Susie Essman (Curb Your Enthusiasm) or Paula Pell (Girls5eva) make it in. (And one hill I will die on is that Josie Totah and Elizabeth Berkley deserve to be contenders for Peacock’s underrated Saved by the Bell sequel.)

• Predicted Nominees (8 slots): Alex Borstein, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel (Prime Video); Hannah Einbinder, Hacks (HBOMax); Sarah Goldberg, Barry (HBO); Janelle James, Abbott Elementary (ABC); Kate McKinnon, Saturday Night Live (NBC); Sheryl Lee Ralph, Abbott Elementary (ABC); Juno Temple, Ted Lasso (AppleTV+); Hannah Waddingham, Ted Lasso (AppleTV+)
• Alternates: Lisa Ann Walter, Abbott Elementary (ABC); Sarah Niles, Ted Lasso (AppleTV+)

Outstanding Supporting Actor: Of last year’s 8 nominees in this category, 7 are eligible to repeat — Ted Lasso’s Brett Goldstein, Nick Mohammed, Brendan Hunt, and Jeremy Swift; Saturday Night Live’s Kenan Thompson and Bowen Yang; and Hacks’s Carl Clemons-Hopkins. This year they must face off the return of previous winner Tony Shalhoub (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel); previous nominees Bryan Tyree Henry (Atlanta), Luke Kirby (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel), Andre Braugher (Brooklyn Nine-Nine), Henry Winkler (Barry), Stephen Root (Barry), and Anthony Corrigan (Barry); previously snubbed Paul W. Downs (Hacks), JB Smoove (Curb Your Enthusiasm), and Phil Dunster (Ted Lasso); and newcomers Taika Waititi (Our Flag Means Death), David Hyde Pierce (Julia), Tyler James Williams (Abbott Elementary), Chris Perfetti (Abbott Elementary), and Jay Duplass (The Chair).

• Predicted Nominees (8 slots): Anthony Corrigan, Barry (HBO); Carl Clemons-Hopkins, Hacks (HBOMax); Brett Goldstein, Ted Lasso (AppleTV+); Brendan Hunt, Ted Lasso (AppleTV+); Tony Shalhoub, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel (Prime Video); Kenan Thompson, Saturday Night Live (NBC); Henry Winkler, Barry (HBO); Bowen Yang, Saturday Night Live (NBC)
• Alternates: Paul W. Downs, Hacks (HBOMax); Nick Mohammed, Ted Lasso (AppleTV+)

DRAMA SERIES PREDICTIONS

Outstanding Drama Series: Of last year’s 8 nominees in the category, only 2 are eligible this year —Bridgerton and This Is Us. Thus, we are likely to see massive turnover this year. (And we are guaranteed all new winners considering that The Crown is ineligible this year after its unprecedented sweep of all seven major Drama categories last year.) Those three series are contending against the return of previous nominees Succession, Better Call Saul, Ozark, Stranger Things, and Killing Eve; acclaimed newcomers Squid Game, Severance, Yellowjackets, Pachinko, and The Gilded Age; and the previously snubbed buzz-generators Euphoria, Yellowstone, The Morning Show, and Evil.

• Predicted Nominees (8 slots): Better Call Saul (AMC); Ozark (Netflix); Severance (AppleTV+); Squid Game (Netflix); Stranger Things (Netflix); Succession (HBO); Yellowjackets (Showtime); Yellowstone (Paramount)
• Alternates: Euphoria (HBO); This Is Us (NBC)

Outstanding Lead Actress: Interestingly, all 6 of last year’s nominees are ineligible this year, ensuring complete turnover in the category. But that is not to imply that there is a dearth of worthy nominees. Among those competing here are previous winners Zendaya (Euphoria) and Jodie Comer (Killing Eve); previous nominees Laura Linney (Ozark), Sandra Oh (Killing Eve), Jennifer Aniston (The Morning Show), and Mandy Moore (This Is Us); the previously snubbed Kelly Reilly (Yellowstone), Reese Witherspoon (The Morning Show), Christine Baranski (The Good Fight), Winona Ryder (Stranger Things), and Catriona Balfe (Outlander); and newcomers Melanie Lynskey (Yellowjackets), Juliette Lewis (Yellowjackets), Carrie Coon (The Gilded Age), and Britt Lower (Severance). Virtually any combination of the worthy women above would make a compelling lineup.

• Predicted Nominees (6 slots): Jennifer Aniston, The Morning Show (AppleTV+); Jodie Comer, Killing Eve (BBCAmerica); Laura Linney, Ozark (Netflix); Melanie Lynskey, Yellowjackets (Showtime); Kelly Reilly, Yellowstone (Paramount); Zendaya, Euphoria (HBO)
• Alternates: Sandra Oh, Killing Eve (BBCAmerica); Mandy Moore, This Is Us (NBC)

Outstanding Lead Actor: Of last year’s 6 nominees, only 1 is eligible this year — Sterling K. Brown for the final season of This Is Us. He is likely to return to the lineup but will face stiff competition from previous winner Jeremy Strong (Succession); previous nominees Brian Cox (Succession), Jason Bateman (Ozark), Bob Odenkirk (Better Call Saul), and Milo Ventimiglia (This Is Us); the previously snubbed Kevin Costner (Yellowstone), Jonathan Bailey (Bridgerton), and Sir Patrick Stewart (Star Trek: Picard); and newcomers Lee Jung-jae (Squid Game), Adam Scott (Severance), John C. Reilly (Winning Time), Tom Hiddleston (Loki), and Lee Min-Ho (Pachinko).

• Predicted Nominees (6 slots): Jason Bateman, Ozark (Netflix); Kevin Costner, Yellowstone (Paramount); Brian Cox, Succession (HBO); Lee Jung-jae, Squid Game (Netflix); Bob Odenkrik, Better Call Saul (AMC); Jeremy Strong, Succession (HBO)
• Alternates: Sterling K. Brown, This is Us (NBC); Adam Scott, Severance (AppleTV+)

Outstanding Supporting Actress: All 8 of last year’s nominees are ineligible, ensuring a complete turnover. The top contenders are 2-time previous winner Julia Garner (Ozark); previous nominees Sarah Snook (Succession), Millie Bobby Brown (Stranger Things), Fiona Shaw (Killing Eve), and Chrissy Metz (This Is Us); the previously snubbed J. Smith-Cameron (Succession), Rhea Seehorn (Better Call Saul), Sadie Sink (Stranger Things), and Sydney Sweeney (Euphoria); and newcomers Jung Ho-yeon (Squid Game), Christina Ricci (Yellowjackets), Patricia Arquette (Severance), Julianna Margulies (The Morning Show), Yuh-Jung Youn (Pachinko), Melissa McCarthy (Nine Perfect Strangers), Glenn Close (Tehran), Cynthia Nixon (The Gilded Age), and Sally Field (Winning Time).

• Predicted Nominees (8 slots): Patricia Arquette, Severance (AppleTV+); Millie Bobby Brown, Stranger Things (Netflix); Julia Garner, Ozark (Netflix); Jung Ho-yeon, Squid Game (Netflix); Christina Ricci, Yellowjackets (Showtime); Rhea Seehorn, Better Call Saul (AMC); J. Smith-Cameron, Succession (HBO); Sarah Snook, Succession (HBO)
• Alternates: Julianna Margulies, The Morning Show (AppleTV+); Sydney Sweeney, Euphoria (HBO)

Outstanding Supporting Actor: Of last year’s 8 nominees, only 1 is eligible this year — This Is Us’s Chris Sullivan. He will have a tough time making it back in given that he is facing off against previous winner Billy Crudup (The Morning Show); a trio of previous nominees for Succession — Kieran Culkin, Matthew Macfadyen, and Nicholas Braun; a pair of previous nominees from Better Call Saul — Giancarlo Esposito and Jonathan Banks; a pair of previous nominees from The Morning Show — Steve Carell and Mark Duplass; previous nominee David Harbour (Stranger Things); the previously snubbed Alan Ruck (Succession) and Eric Dane (Euphoria); and newcomers Oh Young-soo (Squid Game), Park Hae-soo (Squid Game), John Turturro (Severance), and Christopher Walken (Severance).

• Predicted Nominees (8 slots): Nicholas Braun, Succession (HBO); Billy Crudup, The Morning Show (AppleTV+); Kieran Culkin, Succession (HBO); Giancarlo Esposito, Better Call Saul (AMC); Matthew Macfadyen, Succession (HBO); Alan Ruck, Succession (HBO); John Turturro, Severance (AppleTV+); Oh Young-soo, Squid Game (Netflix);
• Alternates: Mark Duplass, The Morning Show (AppleTV+); David Harbour, Stranger Things (Netflix)

LIMITED SERIES AND MADE-FOR-TELEVISION MOVIE PREDICTIONS

Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series: Last year’s Limited Series race was an absolute bloodbath, with 5 brilliant series duking it out and at least as many brilliant series omitted. (Interestingly, the weakest of the 5 won.) This year’s race is not nearly as strong but nevertheless contains some terrific series. There is HBO’s class satire The White Lotus, Netflix’s biographical drama Maid, HBO’s true crime drama The Staircase, HBO’s domestic drama Scenes from a Marriage, HBOMax’s dystopian drama Station Eleven, Netflix’s true crime drama Inventing Anna, Showtime’s historical drama The First Lady, Hulu’s Pamela Anderson-Tommy Lee biography Pam and Tommy, Paramount+’s Yellowstone prequel 1883, Starz’s A-list political thriller Gaslit, Prime Video’s political drama A Very British Scandal, and and a trio of Hulu true crime dramas — the opioid crisis-centered Dopesick, the Theranos downfall-centered The Dropout, and the Mormon fundamentalist-centered Under the Banner of Heaven.

• Predicted Nominees (5 slots): Dopesick (Hulu); The Dropout (Hulu); Maid (Netflix); The Staircase (HBO); The White Lotus (HBO)
• Alternates: Under the Banner of Heaven (Hulu); 1883 (Paramount+)

Outstanding Made-for-Television Movie: This increasingly embarrassing category will likely be filled with films that aren’t worthy of awards and films that were actually intended for the big screen but premiered on streaming services instead when they were determined to have limited commercial viability. As was the case last year, when the painfully trite holiday musical Dolly Parton’s Christmas on the Square won big, this year’s winner seems likely to be cringe-inducing. (No shade to the brilliant and iconic Dolly, who is so universally beloved that her association with the film probably cinched its win.)

• Predicted Nominees (5 slots): Chip ’n’ Dales: Rescue Rangers (Disney+); The Fallout (HBOMax); Ray Donovan: The Movie (Showtime); The Survivor (HBO); Zoey’s Extraordinary Christmas (Roku)
• Alternates: The Valet (Hulu); Fresh (Hulu)

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Limited Series or Made-for-Television Movie: A-list legends and red-hot ingenues dominate this stacked category with the frontrunner being Oscar nominee Amanda Seyfried for her chilling portrayal of disgraced Theranos founder Elizabeth Holmes in The Dropout. She will face stiff competition in the form of Margaret Qualley (Maid), recent Oscar winner Jessica Chastain (Scenes from a Marriage), Oscar winner Julia Roberts (Gaslit), Oscar winner Viola Davis (The First Lady), Oscar winner Renee Zellweger (The Thing About Pam), Oscar winner Olivia Colman (Landscapers), Oscar winner Anne Hathaway (WeCrashed), Oscar nominee Toni Collette (The Staircase), Oscar nominee Michelle Pfeiffer (The First Lady), Emmy winner Julia Garner (Inventing Anna), Emmy winner Claire Foy (A Very British Scandal), Emmy winner Gillian Anderson (The First Lady), Emmy winner Sarah Paulson (Impeachment: American Crime Story), Beanie Feldstein (Impeachment: American Crime Story), and Lily James (Pam & Tommy).

• Predicted Nominees (6 slots): Jessica Chastain, Scenes from a Marriage (HBO); Toni Collette, The Staircase (HBO); Julia Garner, Inventing Anna (Netflix); Lily James, Pam and Tommy (Hulu); Margaret Qualley, Maid (Netflix); Amanda Seyfried, The Dropout (Hulu)
• Alternates: Claire Foy, A Very British Scandal (Prime Video); Sarah Paulson, Impeachment: American Crime Story (Fx)

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Limited Series or Made-for-Television Movie: There is a sea of A-listers facing off in this category as well, with the frontrunner being Oscar nominee Michael Keaton for his turn in the opioid drama Dopesick. He will face stiff competition from Oscar winner Colin Firth (The Staircase), Oscar winner Jared Leto (WeCrashed), Oscar nominee Andrew Garfield (Under the Banner of Heaven), Oscar nominee Samuel L. Jackson (The Last Days of Ptolemy Grey), Oscar nominee Sam Elliott, Oscar Isaac (Scenes from a Marriage), Ben Foster (Survivor), Sebastian Stan (Pam and Tommy), Paul Bettany (A Very English Scandal), David Thewlis (Landscapers), and Himesh Patel (Station Eleven).

• Predicted Nominees (6 slots): Colin Firth, The Staircase (HBO); Ben Foster, The Survivor (HBO); Andrew Garfield, Under the Banner of Heaven (Hulu); Oscar Isaac, Scenes from a Marriage (HBO); Samuel L. Jackson, The Last Days of Ptolemy Grey (AppleTV+); Michael Keaton, Dopesick (Hulu)
• Alternates: Sebastian Stan, Pam and Tommy (Hulu); Paul Bettany, A Very British Scandal (Prime Video)

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Limited Series or Made-for-Television Movie: The frontrunner here is Jennifer Coolidge, whose revelatory performance in The White Lotus garnered enormous buzz. She will face off against a trio of her own costars — Connie Britton, Alexandria Daddario, and Sydney Sweeney — as well as Maid’s Andie MacDowell and Anika Noni Rose, Dopesick’s Kaitlyn Dever and Rosario Dawson, The Dropout’s Laurie Metcalf, The Staircase’s Juliette Binoche, The First Lady’s Ellen Burstyn, 1883’s Faith Hill, and Impeachment: American Crime Story’s Edie Falco.

• Predicted Nominees (7 slots): Juliette Binoche, The Staircase (HBO); Connie Britton, The White Lotus (HBO); Jennifer Coolidge, The White Lotus (HBO); Alexandra Daddario, The White Lotus (HBO); Kaitlyn Dever, Dopesick (Hulu); Laurie Metcalf, The Dropout (Hulu); Andie MacDowell, Maid (Netflix)
• Alternates: Rosario Dawson, Dopesick (Hulu); Ellen Burstyn, The First Lady (Showtime)

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Limited Series or Made-for-Television Movie: The frontrunner here appears to be Murray Bartlett for his electrifying and tragic performance on The White Lotus, but he will face stiff competition from his costars Jack Lacy and Steve Zahn, as well as Michael Stuhlbarg (a strong contender for both Dopesick and The Staircase), Naveen Andrews (The Dropout), Nick Robinson (Maid), Peter Sarsgaard (Dopesick), Matthew Goode (The Offer), William H. Macy (The Dropout), Seth Rogen (Pam and Tommy), Clive Owen (Impeachment: American Crime Story), Ethan Hawke (Moon Knight), O-T Fagbenle (The First Lady), and a trio of actors from Under the Banner of Heaven — Wyatt Russell, Gil Birmingham, and Sam Worthington (Under the Banner of Heaven).

• Predicted Nominees (7 slots): Naveen Andrews, The Dropout (Hulu); Murray Bartlett, The White Lotus (HBO); Jack Lacy, The White Lotus (HBO); William H. Macy, The Dropout (Hulu); Nick Robinson, Maid (Netflix); Peter Sarsgaard, Dopesick (Hulu); Michael Stuhlbarg, Dopesick (Hulu)
• Alternates: Steve Zahn, The White Lotus (HBO); Matthew Goode, The Offer (Paramount+)

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Click here for my recap and review of last year’s Emmys