Has James Wiseman Done Enough to Be the #1 NBA Draft Pick in 2020?

James Wiseman is officially out at Memphis after trouble with the NCAA. Is he really worth the #1 pick next summer?

JAMES WISEMAN HAD EVERYONE TALKING EARLY THIS SEASON. Wiseman towers over his peers at 6'11, with a ginormous 7'5 wingspan. Wiseman was the crown jewel of the nation’s #1 recruiting class for Penny Hardaway’s Memphis Tigers, and the #1 NBA Draft prospect atop ESPN’s early rankings. Then the NCAA went all NCAA, suspending Wiseman for infractions that happened years ago, and now Wiseman has left Memphis to prepare for the draft. We won’t see him play again now until the NBA.

Wiseman played only three games in college but dominated in them, with 19.7 points, 10.7 rebounds, and 3.0 blocks in just 23 minutes a game. He made 80% of his twos with an absurd 47.8 PER. Wiseman dominated physically against smaller opposition and racked up 27 free throws on only 26 field goal attempts, hitting 70.4% of them, impressive for a young big.

James Wiseman is a physical specimen, and the numbers and highlights looked good, but we got only 69 minutes and just one real opponent (and they played zone, making it a tough game to evaluate). Has Wiseman really done enough to be in contention for the #1 pick in the 2020 NBA Draft?

WISEMAN’S BIGGEST STRENGTHS

His huge frame

Wiseman’s is 6'11 and 250 pounds with a 7'5 wingspan, an absolute giant for a kid that won’t turn 19 until March 31. Wiseman leaps off the court. As a physical specimen, he’s a man among boys and probably still growing. Memphis teammate, Precious Achiuwa, a likely first-round prospect, almost looks small next to Wiseman. James Wiseman looks like an NBA star.

His size bothers opponents on defense

Wiseman isn’t Tacko Fall or Bol Bol out there, but his long arms and propensity to block shots are clearly an intimidating factor against opponents. Often with big men, it’s almost as important which shots don’t even go up. Against Wiseman, a lot of shots aren’t even getting attempted.

Wiseman is an intimidator. He loads up on any chance for a block, and you see opponents cower and look for another option. Wiseman had nine blocks in three games and affected many more shots and non-shots.

A very good rebounder

Rebounding is one of the stickiest stats from college to pro, and Wiseman looks like a good rebounder. His size and physicality are dominant at times. Wiseman does a great job grabbing rebounds at their high point, where most can’t get them. His offensive rebounding will be an especially valuable skill since it’s the easiest way for him to get the ball in position to score.

Still, the rebounding relies more on physicality than technique. Wiseman doesn’t do a lot of boxing out or positioning, relying on his strength and athleticism. He’s much bigger than most, so that works a lot of the time, but he gets pushed around and out-physicalled by smaller players and obviously won’t have as much size advantage in the NBA. Wiseman also loses some defensive rebounding opportunities getting out of position trying to block every shot. He’ll be a good rebounder, but there’s still work to do.

Quality touch and shot

Wiseman has a decent shot, and for an 18-year-old giant, that’s a compliment. Against Oregon, one of Wiseman’s most promising plays was a confident, smooth fadeaway from just above the free throw line. It’s a good looking shot that should translate beyond the arc in time, though Wiseman missed his only three pointer.

But Wiseman fell in love with his shot after that make and quickly took and missed several more shots away from the rim. That’s a problem he had in high school, too. You want your 6'11 giant dunking on guys, not taking fadeaways. We don’t know much about Wiseman’s touch around the basket yet because most of his makes are dunks, but 20-for-25 on twos sort of speaks for itself.

Wiseman attempted 27 free throws, making 19 for 70.4%. Not bad. It’s a confident, soft stroke and enough to know he won’t get hack-a’d off the court. He’s not Karl-Anthony Towns (81.3% from the line in college) but isn’t Andre Drummond either (29.5%).

Looks natural as a rim runner

Wiseman has the tools to wreck teams as a rim runner and already looks comfortable in that role. A lot of his buckets came in transition or off a screen-and-roll. If you get the ball to Wiseman in space with a head of steam, it’s all over. He has a big catch radius and is always calling for the ball in good positions. You’d think that’s a given at his size, but it isn’t always so obvious.

The screens themselves are kind of meh. They’re a means to an end, a chance to roll and get the ball. When he’s not screening or rolling, Wiseman hasn’t really figured out what to do yet. He typically runs straight to the block and puts his hand up like “Hey I’m bigger than everyone, just throw me the ball,” but it’s not working. Wiseman sort of floats for position on offense and looks a bit lost in half-court offense.

WISEMAN’S BIGGEST WEAKNESSES

Good but not elite athlete

Wiseman is clearly a very good athlete. He’s the best athlete on the court and would’ve dominated in college. But the NBA is made up of the world’s most elite athletes, and I’m not convinced Wiseman is an elite athlete.

Wiseman looks comfortable in his body. More than a few big men prospects have looked uncomfortable just running up and down the court, and that’s often led to injury issues. Not a problem for Wiseman. He runs smoothly and looks like a fluid athlete.

But I don’t see elite burst or quickness, on either end of the court. While Wiseman can extend when he loads up and leaps off two feet, he’s not quite as impressive off one foot or on second leaps. He’s not bad at those things, but it’s Wiseman’s frame and physicality that overwhelm, not his absurd athleticism. He can’t just outrun the pack or do the Mitch thing where he just leaps out of nowhere and blocks a jumper.

On defense, I didn’t see quick-twitch recovery ability. When an opponent gets past him, Wiseman can’t always catch up to make the block. He also doesn’t get back well in transition on defense. That ties into the next issue.

Questionable body language and effort

Wiseman is engaged on offense. He over-demands the ball, but he’s always looking to be involved — better that than the other direction. But it also looks like Wiseman thinks he’s a star that should have the ball in his hands all the time. He shows frustration when he doesn’t get his touches, and when he did get the ball late against Oregon, the shots went up way too quickly. He struggles knowing what to do with the ball away from the rim.

His defensive engagement comes and goes, and the effort getting into the right position or getting back in transition is not what you’d like to see. There’s some questionable body language, and that’s something scouts have worried about in high school too. Big men need to be engaged to stay relevant.

Foul trouble potential

This hardly feels fair; Wiseman had five fouls in three games, three against Oregon. He picked up his first foul 19 seconds in, jumping at a pump fake and bringing his arms down. Four minutes later, he picked up a questionable charging call and that was it for the half. He picked up another cheap defensive foul in the second half but played most of the half.

So why foul trouble potential? It’s his playing style. Wiseman knows he can block any shot in his area code, and he goes for all of them. He tries to swat every shot and goes for every pump fake. Early in his career, he’s going to get into foul trouble early and often a la Mitchell Robinson, Jaren Jackson, or any number of other number of young bigs. That’s not unforgivable but you can’t affect the game if you can’t stay on the court.

Questionable defensive instincts and mindset

For NBA bigs, defense almost always comes first. Unless you’re Karl-Anthony Towns or Nikola Jokic — aka among the most talented offensive bigs to ever play the game — you have to be good at defense to matter.

The potential is clearly there. Wiseman oozes potential. It’s easy to look at him and dream about what he might become. The problem is the word might.

Wiseman blocks a lot of shots but also goes for way too many blocks. That’s going to lead to foul trouble and get him out of position against smart opponents, giving up easy rebounds and buckets at the rim.

Wiseman moves his feet okay, but not great. He’ll probably be a better drop defender than switch defender, which limits his ultimate defensive value. It sometimes looks like Wiseman lets smaller opponents get past him, thinking he’ll try to block them, but he’s not always quick enough mentally or physically to recover and make that play.

Wiseman’s defensive instincts and reaction times are a bit lagging. Again, this is not shocking — he’s only 18! But that’s the Wiseman we’ve got for now. His defensive positioning and spacing are not great, and that costs him the opportunity to make a bigger defensive impact at times.

OVERALL NBA EVALUATION

Will the early Oregon exit cost Wiseman’s draft stock?

Wiseman’s suspension and early exit should have little to no bearing on his draft stock. He’s a known commodity scouts have followed for years.

If anything, the early exit could actually end up helping his stock. There are some serious potential deficiencies in Wiseman’s game, and over a whole season with more games against opponents like Oregon, there would have been more opportunities for scouts to pick apart Wiseman’s game.

Consider Darius Garland and Kevin Porter Jr. last year. Both were early standouts. Garland got hurt after a few games, never played again, and still got drafted top five on potential. Porter was a presumed top-10 pick, but instead of sitting out after his early issues, he came back and looked very flawed, and he nearly fell out of the first round because of it.

All we’re left with is the Wiseman we imagine, and right now, that’s by far the best version of James Wiseman. In a weak draft class, an imaginary version of Wiseman is a surefire top-10 pick.

How does Wiseman project in the NBA?

Every player is unique, and projections can be an easy crutch. But projecting Wiseman to the NBA is the key to his entire evaluation.

NBA bigs these days are a dime a dozen unless they really stand out. That means being a top-five offensive center or a top-10 defensive center. Anything else, and you’re just another guy in the NBA, fighting for minutes and hoping for the right matchup.

There might be something like 30 to 50 centers in that next tier outside of the top standout group. Some are a little better than others, of course, but some are also getting paid $20 million a season more than the minimum veterans providing 80% of the production at 10% of the cost.

For NBA big men, good isn’t good enough. You’re either great, or you’re just another guy.

And that’s my fear with James Wiseman. He’s clearly an NBA body, and he certainly looks like a guy who could be very good eventually. But it’s hard to imagine the version of Wiseman that’s an NBA star without doing a lot of imagining. He’s not going to be a top-five offensive center, so he’d need to be an elite defender to be worthy of such a high pick.

At his best, Wiseman seems like a rim runner extraordinaire. Maybe a slightly more balanced Mitchell Robinson, with a little more offense but not as much freaky defensive potential, or maybe a super JaVale McGee, who can absolutely mash off the bench or in some matchups, devastating rolling to the rim and catching lobs in space. Perhaps Wiseman adds more touch and is a smaller Mo Bamba or a stronger Jaxson Hayes.

These are good players. They could be great players! Hayes and Bamba were top-10 picks, and Robinson probably should’ve been.

But there are real problems with this player type. Rim runners typically have a very long developmental curve. That’s fine for a guy you take in the second round like Mitch but not okay for a #1 pick you’re paying almost $10 million a year, who you expect to produce right away. This archetype also tends to struggle with foul trouble, and again, you can hardly play like the #1 pick if you can’t stay on the court.

This archetype plays limited minutes in general, between foul trouble and being very matchup dependent. They’re 25mpg guys and tend to be dependent players. Their value depends on other factors, like a smaller opponent or a great pick-and-roll guard that can get them the ball for easy scoring opportunities at the rim.

There’s nothing wrong with all these things! Many NBA players are dependent. Only a few are superstars. But those true superstars are the guys that change everything, the guys worth taking a shot on at #1 overall.

Does James Wiseman change everything?

It’s hard to see it. He might be a good player, maybe even a great one in time, but he feels mostly like a developmental project right now. He’s an imagination station, a dream. You don’t draft James Wiseman to be what he is right now. You draft what you hope he becomes five or seven years from now. But will he still be on your team, if he ever gets there? And will you, the one drafting him, if it takes that long for your #1 pick to pay off?

Is James Wiseman worth the #1 pick in the 2020 NBA Draft?

The jury is still out on what James Wiseman might become someday. And that’s okay! That’s the case for almost every NBA prospect.

But James Wiseman should *not* be the #1 pick in the 2020 NBA Draft.

James Wiseman will not be starting on the Golden State Warriors next year, pushing them back to dynasty mode. Wiseman is not Zion Williamson. He’s not a generational talent, and he’s not going to come in and dominate or even start right away. It’s much more likely he plays 20 foul-prone minutes a game and provides some uneven bench minutes.

And that’s okay if it’s what you get from your #10 draft pick or your #25 pick or a second rounder. But it’s not okay from the #1 pick. It’s just not an option.

By the time James Wiseman is positively contributing, this entire generation of Warriors will be past their prime, and there will be no championship contention. If the Warriors do get the #1 pick, they’d be far better off trading for a veteran that can help now or using that huge salary slot elsewhere.

James Wiseman is a good NBA prospect. In a top-light draft, he looks certain to be a top-10 pick and will likely get taken higher than I’d draft him. And maybe he’ll be worth the investment! For now, he’s well outside my top five, easily after players like Anthony Edwards, LaMelo Ball, and Cole Anthony.

But no — James Wiseman should not be the #1 pick in the 2020 NBA Draft. ■

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