It All Started With a Bacon Sandwich

How an innocent British breakfast cost someone the election that led to Brexit

Following the breadcrumbs on the history of Brexit, I can’t get out of my head how it never would have happened if it wasn’t for that bacon sandwich.

Not literally never. I mean, the Brexit issue had been swirling for some time before Bacon-Sandwich-Gate and wouldn’t have went away quietly. Sooner or later, the powerful figures in British politics (usually the loudest people with a platform) were going to get the referendum they wanted, whether it happened in 2016 or some other time.

The British population was wound up and unhappy, and the EU was a convenient thing to point at and blame. It probably wouldn’t be the sort of thing to sweep under the carpet and forget about, but perhaps, just perhaps, it could have been.

Big Dave and his big promises

David Cameron was our Conservative Prime Minister since 2010, and he is one of the individuals I think history will judge most harshly in all of this.

Seeking re-election, Dave made the promise in his campaign that were he to be re-elected, he would ensure that the EU membership question was taken to a referendum. He did this despite being a staunch believer in the EU system himself.

You may well think: “Well, he’s a man of the people! That’s democracy at work for ya!”

To which I respond: Dave would’ve probably ran his campaign on the joys of bestiality if there was enough public support for it and he thought it would win him a few extra seats. If he was in a more comfortable position heading in to the election, and he didn’t feel the need to dangle this carrot to voters in exchange for their vote, he probably wouldn’t have.

He never for a moment thought the referendum would turn out the way it did, and rather than sucking it up and being a man of the people when the votes were counted and 51.89% of the people in a non-legally binding referendum voted to Leave, Dave resigned instantly.

“I know you all voted for me to be the guy who ran the country for the next 5 years,” he probably said in his resignation speech. “But I’m not dealing with this shite. I’m off to go make my elicit millions and lobby the future government for my own financial gain instead. Byeee.”

Yeah, cheers Dave.

Meanwhile, Ed Miliband…

The leader of the Labour party leader since 2010, Ed Miliband was given a cat in hell’s chance of ever being PM. He wasn’t even considered the best option for Labour Party leader, narrowly defeating (in a party election) his brother David, who many to this day still say was a better option.

Ed was also pro-EU, but he offered no promises on a referendum, and later claimed if he was elected PM he would have never held the Referendum.

Whether that is true or just posturing in hindsight/saying the opposite of the opposition for the sake of being contrary, who knows.

With the 2015 election looming, everyone expected a relatively straight forward Tory victory. The question wasn’t who would win, but by how much. Dave was PM of a minority government, meaning his party didn’t quite get enough seats in the Houses of Parliament in the last election in 2010, and a coalition with a smaller party (the Liberal Democrats) was needed to get them over the finish line.

Basically, without getting bogged down in to specifics of British politics here, he needed 326 seats for a majority in Parliament, but only got 306. So he called up his pal Nick Clegg (leader of the Lib Dems) and said something like: “Hey mate, I know we’ve spent the five years publicly lambasting one another’s policies and competence, but what’s say you chuck your 57 seats on to my 306, I’ll make you my Deputy Prime Minister?”

To which Nick Clegg promptly climaxed and ran full pelt to Dave’s house to get that in writing.

Incidentally, all the good will Nick Clegg garnered after years of good campaigning was gone in an instant of betrayal for the sake of 5 years of sort-of power which achieved nothing for him and his party.

(I voted for Nick Clegg in that election, and my God I was depressed when I saw him on the podium shaking hands with his new partner in crime Davey-boy Cameron.)

But back to 2015.

Although everyone expected Dave to win, things weren’t expected to be a landslide, so the PM offered the EU referendum to sweeten the deal. It was the biggest issue in British politics at the time, and the election was somewhat of a step to get there for many people. It got in the way. Smaller party candidates with little chance of election suddenly began telling everyone to vote for Cameron, just to get the referendum they were so desperate for.

To highlight how much it dominated public opinion, the EU referendum in June 2016 got a high public turnout than the General Election in May 2016.

Before he was re-elected though, while dangling this referendum carrot, his bumbling and unappealing opponent on the Labour side, Ed Miliband, somehow — miraculously — started to appear somewhat vote-able.

The good, the bad, and the bacon sarnie

Now over here in the UK we have a period of 25 working days from an election being officially called when the Parliament is dissolved, to the day we all shuffle off with our dogs to our local polling stations on voting day.

This is compared to the US, for example, where I’m told the election cycle is a never ending torment which began when George Washington took office and hasn’t stopped since.

In 2020, the US campaign lasted over 1,100 days technically, enough time to roughly fit about 32 UK elections, which at the rate we’re going we could well do before 2030.

For Americans wondering how anything can get done in 25 working days, the shorter cycle means a more focused, devoted spell of time for party leaders to release their manifestos, knock on doors handing our flyers, and get on telly to say their sound bites — all before the British population gets worn out (in theory).

A month before the 2015 election, varying opinion polls showed voters were split. It was too close to call. Some had both parties level, some had Labour winning by a nose.

And then the most pivotal event in half a century of British politics happened: Ed Miliband ate a bacon sandwich and looked a bit weird doing it.

Actually, he ate the bacon sandwich in 2014, a year before, and photographer Jeremy Selwyn snapped him and sold them to the Pro-Tory London Evening Standard.

By the 2015 General Election, everyone had forgotten all about this nothing photo, and then the bastion of all that is shite The Sun (Britain’s most read newspaper, mind you) decided a day before voting day it was high time to reprint the photo and remind everyone.

It was a last ditch smear campaign and it worked splendidly.

The photos were unflattering, making Ed look gormless and incapable of eating a sandwich like a normal person, but then if you took a photo of just about anyone eating they’d probably look a bit weird.

Nonetheless:

“Ah,” screamed Mr and Mrs Undecided Voter in unison. “If he can’t even eat a bacon sandwich properly, how can he run a country?!”

“Oh, but running a country isn’t actually anything like eating a bacon sandwich,” many people pointed out. “You know, there’s the economy and policy and whatnot, and his manifesto is pretty solid if you take the time to read it. Also, remember that time David Cameron ate a hot dog with a knife and fork?”

Mr and Mrs Undecided Voter proceed to shake their heads, shout “fake news”, then put a tick next to David Cameron on their postal votes.

This was a sentiment shared by the British population the following day when the polls opened: after opinion polls estimating a Labour lead of around 4 seats turned in to an actual Labour defeat of 98.

The Conservatives not only won when many thought they wouldn’t, but they won comfortably, getting their majority.

The rest, as they say, is history. Following their absolute majority in government, the promised EU referendum was held just a month later, Leave won, Dave took his ball and went home, new PM Theresa May was handed the impossible task of saving negotiations which she still managed to mess up, and now… we have Boris.

We’re the laughing stock of the world

Ed Miliband denies that the bacon sandwich was the reason he lost the election, but I’m not so sure. I mean, yes, opinion polls are never completely accurate, and there are likely lots of reasons how such a massive swing could happen.

Many undecided voters probably intended to vote Labour in the build up, but when they were in their voting booths got cold feet and stuck with the status quo.

It happens.

But if you were an undecided voters, where for a month of campaign and election coverage it was a coin toss and you couldn’t make up your mind who to vote for, an embarrassing photo of a candidate slopping a greasy bacon butty all over his face would probably be enough to put you off, right?

Yes.

But also, no. It depends on the candidate it seems.

David Cameron’s Hot-Dog-Gate (we sure like putting -gate on the end of things, don’t we?) was quickly forgotten, but when Theresa May had the audacity to look a bit weird eating some chips (which Ed himself mocked her for on Twitter), she was roundly chastised and voters in the 2017 General Election (we also love an election over here, it happens more than Christmas) deserted her in droves, losing the Tory majority.

So what’s the point in all this, talking about a UK election 6 years ago? Why now?

Well, it’s been on my mind a lot recently, how we’re a fickle bunch when it comes to politics, and often big decisions can be boiled down to one or two simple headline grabbing sentences or a scandalous photo.

Maybe if Ed Miliband chose soup we’d still be in the EU and PM Miliband would be leading this nation’s second glorious coming as a world power?

Probably not, but because of that bacon sandwich we’ll never know.

Thanks Jeremy Selwyn.

Bastard.

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