How to achieve success in Fantasy Premier League (FPL)

Skills to make your own luck

Years ago, a friend introduced me to Fantasy Premier League. I’ve been hooked ever since. The competition has since doubled its managers, who last season, numbered over 11 million!

While there is no formula for success in Fantasy League, here are my tips, based on the lessons I’ve learnt, that could set up managers for success.

Spoiler alert: The last one is the most potent.

1. Understand “fantasy”

While FPL is based on real-life events, it is a game in its own right. A game with a specific scoring system. The objective is to maximize points.

Select players with most potential for fantasy points. Remember that the “best” player on the pitch for a team, may not be the best fantasy asset.

2. Do basics well

You have to be in-it to win-it. With 11m+ managers, the chances of winning are quite remote. The chances of doing respectably however are quite high. This can be achieved by just doing the basics well.

There are 38 game weeks. What the absolute simplest thing we can do? Make selections for all game weeks — on time.

Avoiding stupidity is easier than seeking brilliance — Charlie Munger

3. Stay the course

The season is 38 weeks. Managers will go through peaks and troughs. It is easy to get disheartened when things don’t go your way. It’s also possible to become overconfident and lose your way.

Stay the course. FPL has lots of “casual” players, and “fake” ones too. They peter out by the midway stage. The second half of the season, with the second Wildcard, and double game-weeks, can change ranks significantly.

4. Understand stats

FPL has array of statistics to help managers. While other (paid) tools can give you more, the FPL selection is balanced and manageable.

Understand what each statistic means. Understand how it’s calculated. Understand what it conveys — directly or indirectly. Understand what it does not tell.

Understand whether the statistic is a lagging or leading one. Lag indicators reflect actual performance in the past. Goals and Assists are examples. Lead indicators show underlying potential for future performance. ICT Index, xG are examples of that. Consider both to get a balanced perspective.

5. Past is not an indicator of the future

FPL planning is done mostly on past events and data. The past however is not necessarily an indicator of the future.

Some fantasy assets (players) are fixture-proof. We know they will deliver over the course of the season. But say a random player unexpectedly scores 20 points in last 2 game-weeks. There is no guarantee they will score 20 in the next two. Examine the data (Point #4) to understand the reason behind the spike in scores, and act accordingly.

“The past is already gone, the future is not yet here. There’s only one moment for you to live, and that is the present moment” — Buddha

6. Live in the present

You can only have 15 players. Even among them, budget and team structure require sacrifices. There will be players whose points you will “miss”. The points that are lost in the past. Don’t fall for the sunk cost fallacy. The past is irretrievable. Avoid kneejerk reactions. Assess each transfer based on what it will yield from now onwards.

Avoid over-planning. In FPL it’s good to plan ahead. A good planning horizon is 3–4 weeks ahead, extending to 6 weeks max. Planning further than that is futile. A lot can change.

Draw a firm line on the past. Draw a slight dotted line in the immediate horizon. Operate around that line.

7. Bandwagons

The art of FPL is jumping on and off the right “bandwagon” at the right time. This is of course nigh on impossible to do perfectly. We can miss entire bandwagons. We can be late, or indeed, even early!

Nevertheless, bandwagons are an essential part of the game. We will have to get on and off them, at various points of the season. The key is to be aware of bandwagons, and assess them in the context of your team and future fixtures. Then decide what to do: jump, wait or forfeit.

8. Hits

Like bandwagons, hits also require judgement calls. Every player will require hits over the course of the season. Even the winners take them!

The key is to take calculated risks. A hit costs 4 points. Do some arithmetic and compare it to the potential gain over a planning horizon.

The rule of thumb is to take hits sparingly.

FPL points are hard-earned and should not be squandered on hits. A -4 to -8 can work out, especially in double-game weeks. A -12 hit is very bold and risky. Anything above that will simply not pay-off.

9. Get first week right

Confirmed information is the currency of FPL. In the first week, we have very little of it. GW1 is the most difficult to get right. It’s also the biggest opportunity of the Fantasy season. High risk, High return.

If there is one GW that you want to get “right”, it’s the first one. It’s when everything starts. Everyone is on the same page. If you get it “right”, you’re really well setup for a number of weeks.

Research widely. In the last 2 seasons, as FPL content has proliferated, a common template often emerges. Use the “wisdom of crowds”. Be close to the template so as to not fall too far behind from the off.

10. Captain choices

Captains gain double points. It’s always worth thinking about your captain in every game-week — even if a “perma-captain” emerges in the season.

Players are priced on points potential. Premium players are priced high because they deliver consistently, and land the big hauls.

Premium players and captaincy are related. Armbands should normally be placed on premium players. Conversely, premium players, particularly those costing over $11.5m, should be procured with captaincy in mind. The most expensive premium(s) must represent captaincy options. If they don’t, that money is better spent elsewhere.

11. Understand the role of luck

FPL is based on luck. Part of FPL’s seduction is that it makes us believe that through analysis, we can beat luck — except that we can’t.

Analysis and logic, the basis of the tips given so far, can give you a good grounding. Luck however is hugely important and pivotal. Over the course of the season, managers will benefit and suffer due to luck.

The important thing is to discern whether an outcome is based purely on luck, or not. To do this as accurately as possible, fantasy managers must judge their processes rather than the outcomes. If the process, analysis or logic was sound, and the outcome was adverse, that’s down to luck. Similarly, if the process was not sound but the outcome was good, that’s also luck. My article, linked above, discusses this in more detail.

There is a controllable analytical component, and an uncontrollable luck factor, that will determine a season’s final rank. Luck cannot be a strategy. Managers can only control their processes. The final rank for a season will be determined by a dynamic combination of logic and luck.

12. Understand what success means

FPL is a game. Success in the game equates to the final rank. Numerical ranks have an objectivity and measurability about them. Having said that, they can be rather simplistic indicators.

The real measure of success in FPL is broader.

FPL is a great tool to sharpen problem-solving and decision-making skills. It simulates a real-life environment where we have to make calls with insufficient information and in the face of uncertainty.

FPL allows us to build a great personal and professional skill, in a risk-free environment — an online game that costs nothing to play!

This is the real value of FPL. It can help us improve the core life-skills of problem-solving and decision-making. The lessons we learn here can then be applied to our personal and professional situations.

There is no formula to guarantee success in FPL. There are however certain tips we can use to increase our chances of success. Following that, we can also expand our definition of success to be more holistic. When we do so, then regardless of the final rank, which if you play with common sense, should be respectable —we’ll always have satisfaction. Satisfaction is ultimate barometer of success, in FPL and in life.

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