Six Reasons Trump is Glued into the Oval Office
These are not normal times. Trump is not a normal president. Don’t expect normal results
I read an article by Brian E. Wish, PhD in which he outlines why he thinks that the normal processes of American democracy will prevail and Don Trump will be booted out of the White House in a few months.
No offence, Doctor B, but I think you have your nose pressed way too close against a glass you see as half-full, and you need to take a step back.
The underlying premise is that America has some sort of divine democratic spring that will never run dry. Dr Wish points to an article by Fred Kaplan as proof of this.
I think that far from being a fountain of pure democracy, it’s more Koolaid than fresh water. Don’t drink the Koolaid, people! Do your own research.
1. Don Trump doesn’t believe in the same things you do
Trump believes in himself. He believes his thoughts carry divine truth. He honestly believes that he is a genius.
He identifies himself with America, and sees any criticism, no matter how strongly backed by facts, as an attack on the nation. His opponents are labelled traitors. The media — in a land where freedom of speech is enshrined in fundamental law — are “enemies of the people”.
It amazes me when I read The Wall Street Journal which is always so negative, it amazes me when I read The New York Times, it’s not even — I barely read it. … Because, you see, I know the truth. And people out there in the world, they really don’t know the truth, really don’t know what it is. — Don Trump, 19 March 2020
Patriotism, in Trumpist terms, is the good of Trump, not the good of the nation, and only he knows the truth.
We have already seen that Don Trump professes to uphold and defend both the American Constitution and the Bible, neither of which he has read. His idea of what is right is his gut feelings.
Gut feelings alone are not enough to keep Don Trump in office, but it is naïve to assume that he will not oppose removal with every possible tactic, and if he has the support of federal agencies and the courts, then he can muddy the waters enough that Joe Biden will not have a clear enough victory to compel complete obedience.
The normal transition is good-natured and unopposed. Don Trump has never shown himself as willing to be replaced or defeated in anything. His usual procedure is to double down, delay, obfuscate, bully, and wear out the other side.
This isn’t even an election like 2016, which wasn’t normal. This time Trump is hauling on a lot more levers than he did last time, and he is in a better position to manipulate the outcome. You think if CNN calls the election for Joe Biden that’s the last word?
No way. Even if Trump loses, he has three months left as supreme leader to change that. And Trump will do everything to avoid the appearance of defeat. He hates looking like a loser.
Of course, if Don Trump actually wins the 2020 election, he remains in power for four more years, so the question of whether he would resist eviction would be moot in that case.
But the 2020 election — like any other — is an election that can be stolen.
2. America’s rivals and enemies want Trump in power
Simply put, the chaos, ineptitude, and damage to America that Trump has caused allows America’s rivals — notably Russia and China — to move forward in global affairs. Others, such as Turkey and Saudi Arabia, play Trump like a fiddle, buttering him up and reaping the benefits of his childish diplomacy.
The conclusion of multiple investigations into Russian interference in the 2016 American elections is that yes, Putin sponsored a sophisticated effort to promote Don Trump and attack Hillary Clinton. Clinton significantly won the popular vote, but a few thousand votes in key states gave Don Trump enough Electoral College points to take the Presidency.
Every time he sees me he says, ‘I didn’t do that,’ and I really believe that when he tells me that, he means it. But he says, ‘I didn’t do that.’ I think he is very insulted by it, which is not a good thing for our country. — Donald Trump, on Putin
There is no doubt about this. The Mueller Report detailed the people and the practices that helped Trump. Putin — of course — denies interference, and Trump — of course — says it’s a hoax. It suits his fragile ego — the same one that refused to admit that President Obama’s inauguration drew far greater crowds than his own, despite the photographic evidence — to deny that anything but his own unprecedented efforts gained him the win.
Indications are that Russia is planning to do the same again, presumably using methods that are not quite so easily exposed. China, India and many others seeking to expand their role in world affairs as America shrinks will undoubtedly add in their efforts. A weak and leaderless America is good news for many world powers. Russia, in particular, has profited enormously from its modest investment in Don Trump.
Trump is behind in the polls now, but if he receives sophisticated help from multiple foreign powers in the final weeks of the campaign, who knows? It’s not as if he didn’t do it before.
3. America’s democracy is weak
In most Western nations democracy functions better than in America:
- More people vote.
- Voting systems are uniform, fair, and administered by independent agencies.
- Lobbyists do not have the same influence
In contrast, American elections are woefully inadequate:
- Voting is optional. By making it difficult for certain communities to register and vote, political parties obtain an immediate advantage. If the supporters of the opposing candidate find it difficult to vote, they may not bother. If polling places are sparse and poorly manned for those in poorer districts, the difficulties and delays add up. Losing a day’s pay might easily be enough to dissuade someone who is counting every dollar. If a voter feels that their vote will not alter a foregone conclusion, why go to all the bother? There will be no penalty.
- Systems are rigged. There is a bewildering variety of voting systems: machines, computers, paper ballots. Every county seems to have a different system. Some of these systems are less secure than others. Electorate boundaries are often drawn up to favour one party over another. It’s a vicious circle; the party winning the election sets the rules for the next one. Electorate boundaries can be drawn to consolidate (say) Democratic votes, so the Democrats win a few seats with thumping majorities, and the other guys win many seats with wafer-thin margins. And let’s not forget the many ways that voters are disenfranchised through various mechanisms, such as by requiring ID to be shown. Vote fraud is almost non-existent, but the systems used to address this non-problem often prevent many legitimate votes from being cast.
- Lobbyists and non-voters have an undue influence.
This essay in The Atlantic sums up the situation. It is far from being a lone voice.
America’s democracy is one of exclusion, not inclusion. The systems are complex and capable of being gamed, if not outright rigged. With Don Trump in power federally, and his party holding power in many State and county jurisdictions, the rules can be skewed against Democrats.
I would like to promise and pledge to all of my voters and supporters and to all of the people of the United States that I will totally accept the results of this great and historic presidential election, if I win. — Don Trump
Yes, he may be behind by 10% or so in the polls now, but if 10% of Democrats can be dissuaded from voting, struck off the rolls, or simply sidelined by one means or another, a second Trump term becomes a reality.
4. The courts may say Trump won, even if he lost
Every time Ruth Bader Ginsburg sneezes, America holds its breath. At 87 years old, she is well past retirement age, but if she were to retire or become gravely ill, or even die, then Don Trump would be able to appoint a third conservative justice to the Supreme Court.
One of the few achievements of the Trump administration and one of the few promises kept has been the way in which the federal courts have been packed with conservative judges.
Apart from the gall with which the Senate denied Barack Obama an appointment to the Supreme Court, Trump has appointed two Supreme Court justices, tilting that court to the conservative side, and 198 other judicial appointments. Dozens of others are in train.
Quite apart from the improved odds of favourable court outcomes, Trump has also demonstrated considerable flair in using the legal system to delay or stymie court proceedings directed against him. He has, for example, fought hard against releasing his tax returns. Four years later, that still hasn’t happened.
He will do everything possible to use the courts to tilt the election in his favour before it happens, and afterwards, assuming he loses. He has set the ground for legal appeals many times, saying that voter fraud is a huge problem, that elections are rigged against him, there is a “deep state” conspiracy and so on.
It is not beyond the realm of possibility that if he loses the election, he will appeal against the outcomes in crucial states, and refuse to vacate the office until there is no dispute. During the months after the election, and any period after occupancy, he will continue to make appointments and issue Executive Orders.
America continues to operate by the rule of law, or at least a reasonable facsimile. If there is enough doubt over the election outcome, he refuses to concede defeat, and the appeals are working their way through stacked benches, then why would he leave?
5. These are not normal times
There is a pandemic raging through America. Mostly due to Trump’s ineptitude and lack of leadership. A deadly virus takes no account of media releases and prayers. It just goes on infecting and killing, no matter what Trump’s own gut feelings that it will simply disappear might be.
The election campaign process has already been disrupted, with rallies and conventions cancelled, voting procedures thrown into disarray, laws and regulations aimed at allowing safe voting to proceed appealed and counter-appealed.
In the hundred days remaining before the election, it is a safe bet that the virus will continue to spread through America. If states are in lockdown, then how do people vote? If there are delays through social distancing, then is it a fair vote? There is ample sustenance for legal delays and upsets.
We also see protests and riots on a scale matching if not exceeding those of 1968.
Trump has also demonstrated a massive diversion from the norms established by previous administrations. Scandals, corruption, nepotism, ineptitude, and chaos are everyday events in the Trump White House. He has attempted several times to gain outside help in winning re-election, and those are just the ones we know about.
One thing we may be sure of: this election will not follow the usual trajectory.
6. Will patriotism kick Trump out of the Oval Office?
Don’t count on it. Even as we speak federal agents are patrolling the streets of Portland OR, scooping up innocent citizens. Trump has time and again declared that he is a “Law and Order” president, and he has time and again used federal agencies to act against protestors, the media, and political opponents.
Patriotism isn’t something with legislative, judicial, or executive force. The forces that might remove Trump from the Oval Office after he has declared his intention to remain there generally follow orders, and if there is uncertainty about who has the power to give the orders, then things can get messy.
History is wedged full of examples where the final say on who gets to remain in power isn’t through fairness, law, or popular opinion.
“Palace militias”, such as the Praetorian Guard, the Janissaries, Fedayeem Saddam, Schutzstaffel and many others have often kept a regime head in power, or removed him.
Don Trump routinely arranges events so that his hand-picked forces control the events of the day, and opposition is limited to impotent protests after the fact. His administration is littered with the bodies of opponents, destroyed, dismayed, and disparaged.
Finally, if he has the Supreme Court on his side, then removing him from office may not be as simple as one might think. America’s legal system isn’t about fairness. It is about the art of the possible.
Summing up
Don Trump will have help from foreign powers in his election campaign. He is aided by the unprecedented combination of pandemic and protests. His bench-stacking efforts and established tactics of non-cooperation with the law will assist him in his efforts to maintain power. He will be aided by various Republican mechanisms to enhance their vote. And he will simply put every possible obstacle he can in the path of removal from office.
Anything else would be an admission that he is a loser, he has been fired, he is inadequate. Don Trump fights against this with every possible tactic, fair or foul.
Don’t consider this to be a normal election in normal times. It isn’t.
American democracy is already weak. The nation is not too big to fail, and there are forces working to do just that. Internally as well as externally.
If it comes down to Trump versus the Constitution, only a naïve person would put their wishful money on a scrap of parchment.
Britni
