Even your terrible NFL team can still make the 2017 playoffs somehow

The Bengals, Bills, Cardinals, Chargers, Eagles, Panthers and Saints are all still alive in the playoff hunt … but how?

Just three weeks remain in the 2016 NFL regular season, yet we still know almost nothing about the playoff picture. Only the Browns, 49ers, Jaguars, Bears, Rams, and Jets have been eliminated, leaving 26 teams still in the mix, or at least close enough to get the fans to come out for another game or two.

But not all chances are created equally. The Bengals, Bills, Cardinals, Chargers, Eagles, Panthers, and Saints are all still technically mathematically alive, but 538.com gives each of them less than 1% chance of qualifying.

So exactly how ridiculous of a scenario would it take for one of these we-are-the-one-percent teams to actually make the playoffs? Well I am glad you asked, my friend. Here are the scenarios, in increasing order of absurdity.

Cincinnati (AFC North champ)

The Bengals are currently just 5–7–1, but that tie makes all the difference. So does having a difficult schedule, which is a good thing in this case — they’re going to need to win games anyway, so beating other teams fighting for the same spot is a two-for-one.

Like every other team on this list, Cincinnati has to start by winning its last three games in Houston and home for Pittsburgh and Baltimore. They also need the Ravens to win in Pittsburgh week 16 and both division rivals to lose their other game — Philly for the Ravens, and Cleveland for the Steelers.

Hey, nobody said this was going to be easy. Cincinnati needs just six game results to go their way to make the playoffs. That’s the easiest path here.

Magic number: 6

New Orleans (NFC South champ)

The Saints have a pretty similar scenario to the Bengals above. They need to win out and see two divisional rivals lose out. The Saints will have to win in Arizona and Atlanta and home for Tampa. Atlanta and Tampa don’t play each other again, which is a good thing because that alone would eliminate the Saints.

Even still, New Orleans will need the Panthers to beat both their rivals along with a Tampa loss in Dallas and an Atlanta home loss to the 49ers. Add all of that up and the Saints win an ugly three-way 8–8 tie to take the division.

Magic number: 7

Carolina (NFC South champs)

The Panthers have a similar path to the Saints, so you know the drill by now. Carolina has to win in Washington and Tampa and home to Atlanta, and they also need Atlanta and Tampa to lose both of their other games. So far, that’s an identical path to New Orleans.

But there’s an extra hitch. Atlanta and Tampa losing out puts them at 8–8 along with Carolina, and the Panthers would win that three-way tie. But Atlanta and Tampa would also have lose to the Saints, now up to 7–8 with only this week’s game in Arizona in doubt. And New Orleans would actually win the so-horrible-yet-you-can’t-look-away four-way 8–8 tie. So Carolina needs the Saints to lose that last game, and they’re in.

Magic number: 8

Buffalo (AFC Wild Card)

The Bills have the best shot at a Wild Card berth of any team here and are actually at a whopping 2% to make the playoffs right now — not because the path is straightforward but because the results aren’t so wildly unexpected.

The Bills need to win out, but that seems doable with the Browns, Dolphins, and Jets on the table. Come on down Robert Griffin, Matt Moore, and Bryce Petty. Now the Bills are up to 7% and at 9–7 but they lose almost every tiebreak so they need a lot more. Miami needs to lose twice more, Denver needs to lose twice, Tennessee has to lose to Houston and once more, Baltimore has to lose to Pittsburgh once more, and the Colts need to lose a game too.

Once all that happens, the Bills are golden.

Magic number: 12

Arizona (NFC Wild Card)

The Cardinals were officially eliminated from the NFC West with Seattle’s win last night, but at 5–7–1 like the Bengals above, their tie leaves them a small chance.

Arizona needs to win out against the Saints, Seahawks, and Rams. They also need Washington to lose twice and either Atlanta or Tampa (or both of course) to lose all three times. And then they too need some help from the Chicago Bears by way of two Bears wins against Green Bay and Minnesota, coupled with an additional Packers lose to Detroit and a Vikings lose to the Colts.

Magic number: 12

Philadelphia (NFC Wild Card)

Carson Wentz’s North Dakota State Bison are still alive in the FCS playoffs, and his Eagles are still kicking too but they’re going to need a lot of help.

Philadelphia is going to have to work pretty hard just doing their part, needing a trio of wins against the Ravens, Giants, and Cowboys. They’re also going to need both Atlanta and Washington to lose all three games left. The Vikings need to beat Green Bay but lose both of their other games to Indy and Chicago, and the Packers need to lose another one too. All Philly needs after that is a Saints loss and a Cardinals loss and they’re set.

And hey, Arizona can actually tie instead of losing too.

Magic number: 13

Carolina (NFC Wild Card)

As it turns out, the Saints winning that game against the Redskins above doesn’t eliminate the Panthers … it just cripples them badly. Even with three Carolina wins and three Atlanta losses and three Tampa losses, that Saints win drops them right back down to 1% odds.

Now they’ll need an 8–8 Wild Card spot, and they’re going to need some help from a very unlikely source: the Chicago Bears. Against all odds, Carolina will need Chicago to win out against the Packers, Redskins, and Vikings (all NFC Wild Card foes). The Packers need to beat the Vikings but lose to the Lions, and the Redskins add a third loss (besides Carolina and Chicago) to the Giants.

All of that would mean the Panthers lose a four-way 8–8 tie for the NFC South but win a four-way 8–8 Wild Card tie with the Bucs, Falcons and Packers. Actually the Vikings and Eagles could jump in there too and the Panthers would still win, so yay! Options!

Magic number: 14

Cincinnati (AFC Wild Card)

The Bengals can still win the AFC North (above) by winning out and having Pittsburgh and Baltimore lose out, other than when they play each other. If that doesn’t happen, they’ll still need the loser of that PIT/BAL game to lose out but they need a heck of a lot more after that.

Cincinnati also needs Denver to lose all three games, and the Dolphins need to follow suit. The Titans need to lose to Houston and at least once more and the Colts need a loss as well. Even the Bills will need one more loss, against either the Jets or the Browns.

If all of that happens, Cincinnati can make the playoffs at 8–7–1 and Marvin Lewis’s job may be spared yet one more year … a Christmas miracle!

Magic number: 14

San Diego (AFC Wild Card)

The Chargers are technically barely still alive, sort of like that poinsettia you bought two weeks ago and left in the basement without sunlight and water but just remembered and hope to take home to your parents for Christmas.

San Diego of course needs to win out against Oakland, Cleveland, and Kansas City. They also need Pittsburgh to lose out, which will include a loss in the finale to the 0–15 Browns, and they’ll need Baltimore to beat Cincinnati in week 17 too. But wait — the Chargers have only just now crossed the 1% threshold.

San Diego also needs Miami to lose out, and Denver must lose out too. Now the Bolts are tied with those two teams and Pittsburgh at 8–8 but they can’t beat them in a tiebreaker, so more help is needed.

Tennessee must lose to Houston but then split their other two games, so they also end up at 8–8. And then Buffalo, having already beaten Miami, must split their other two games to get to 8–8 too.

Then and only then will San Diego make the AFC Wild Card by way of an unbelievable six-way 8–8 tie with the Steelers, Broncos, Bills, Dolphins, and Titans in which I’m pretty sure the tiebreak comes down to the little-used 24th tiebreaker, which is of course which team has the highest average season temperature without averaging over 70 years old per town inhabitant.

Oh wait, almost forgot. The Colts have to lose at least one game too. After all, they would win a seven-way 8–8 tiebreak.

Magic number: 18

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