Everything you need to know about the NFL playoff picture for the last 3 weeks

Who’s in, who’s out, and what’s at stake for every team of relevance over the final three weeks of the season?

It’s mid-December, Christmas is around the corner, and that means it’s time to get all your shopping done and settle in for a wild NFL finish before the playoffs. An incredible 23 of the 32 teams are still (technically) in the playoff hunt, and only Dallas has clinched a berth so far.

The tiebreakers are messy and everything is one giant butterfly effect, with each result affecting the next. Not all ties are created equal, and some teams way out in front may not be as secure as they seem.

So who’s likely to make the playoffs, and which teams are long shots? What games are the biggest left on the schedule? There are implications for your favorite team and your fantasy football squad. Take a look below and bookmark this to keep an eye on everything these final three crazy weeks…

AFC division races

AFC East

The East is all but wrapped for New England. Miami would need to win out and see the Pats lose out to steal the division, unlikely for any number of reasons at this point. New England finishes up in Denver, home for the Jets, and then in Miami. This week looks like the last real hurdle for the one seed and home field advantage. Both Kansas City and Oakland play Denver again, difficult schedules plus the Pats have a one game lead. Even if New England loses this week, the Chiefs or Raiders would need to win out to steal the one seed. Win in Denver and it’s more or less a wrap. New England isn’t quite there yet but the path is clear. They’ll likely be resting by week 17.

AFC North

Pittsburgh is the clear front runner here with a one game lead over Baltimore and the better remaining schedule. Pittsburgh hosts Baltimore in week 16 and also gets a home finale against the Browns instead of the Raven’s game against the pesky Eagles this week. You never know with the Steelers lately, but they have a great shot to win out and get to 11–5 and a three seed. Even if they don’t win out, a win against Baltimore next week basically clinches the division. Baltimore still controls its destiny though. Win out against Philly and then in Pittsburgh and Cincinnati and the Ravens would be division champs.

AFC South

The South is still wide open with Houston and Tennessee at 7–6 and Indianapolis trailing at 6–7. Despite the three-team race, there’s a clear order here. Houston is still the definite favorite, Brock Osweiler warts and all. They are home for Jacksonville and Cincinnati before going to Tennessee in the finale. That soft schedule likely puts them at 9–6 heading into the final week. If the Titans lose a game before that — and they play the Chiefs this week — Houston will have already clinched the division since they own the tiebreak. The Texans control their destiny and are in if they win out and probably even if they win two of the three.

Tennessee also controls its destiny and will make the playoffs if they win in Kansas City and Jacksonville and then home against Houston. The Titans are just 1–3 in the division so far though, and that may doom them because it costs them the tiebreak and an easy win or two. Lose this week and Tennessee’s best scenario is 9–7 with a 6–6 conference record, probably not good enough to win the division or the Wild Card. This is close to an elimination game. Unless the Titans win in KC, this is Houston’s division.

The Colts are basically out of it. They need to win out in a difficult schedule with road trips to Minnesota and Oakland on tap and they need Tennessee to lose to Kansas City but beat Houston and they need one more Houston loss. In this mess of a division anything is possible, but Colts fans shouldn’t get their hopes up.

AFC West

Denver is technically still alive for the division, but the bad overtime loss to the Chiefs almost certainly doomed them. To win the division now they’ll need to win out over New England, Kansas City, and Oakland and see another Raiders loss and two more Chiefs losses. Not happening.

That means it’s Kansas City and Oakland fighting for the division and the first round bye, most likely as the two seed unless New England falls apart. Though the teams are tied at 10–3, Kansas City is in the lead because of the season sweep, so they win any ties. That means Oakland could technically win out, get to 13–3, and still be the five seed.

Because of that tiebreak scenario and the fact that the Raiders don’t get to play the Chiefs again, the division is pretty simple. The Chiefs still host the Titans and Broncos before a trip to San Diego. Winning out wins the division, but they’d likely need New England to lose twice to steal the one seed. If the Chiefs lose once, the Raiders can win out against Indy and in San Diego and Denver and win the division. Basically Oakland needs to win more of the final three games than Kansas City to take the division and the two seed.

Denver probably can’t win the division, but games the final two weeks against the Chiefs and Raiders will likely decide it anyway.

AFC Wild Cards

New England, Kansas City, and Oakland should take three of the six AFC playoff spots — each clinches with just one more win in the final three. That takes up one of the Wild Card spots as well. If the Chiefs win the next two games and the Raiders lose once, that gives the West to Kansas City and basically locks Oakland in as the five seed, enough so that they could probably even rest in week 17 before a trip to the AFC South champ — not the worst outcome in the world despite missing a bye.

That means there’s really only one AFC Wild Card realistically up for grabs, with the Dolphins, Bills, Steelers or Ravens, Broncos, and Texans, Titans, or Colts pushing for the spot. In all likelihood, three of those eight teams are in while the rest watch from their couches. And it looks wide open.

Denver and Miami are in the best position at 8–5, a game ahead of everyone else, but both have big roadblocks in the way. For Denver, the schedule is brutal — home for New England, at Kansas City, and home for Oakland. The good news is that if they do win out, they’ll control their destiny, beating Miami on the shared opponent tiebreaker. If Denver gets two of the wins they get to 10–6, 7–5 in conference. That would give them a pretty good shot. Just one more win, or none, and they’re probably toast.

Miami has a far easier schedule but will have to navigate it without QB Ryan Tannehill. They play the Jets and Bills on the road before a home finale against the Patriots where Tannehill may return. If Matt Moore can lead Miami to two tough road divisional wins, the Dolphins will be in great shape. If they win one, they’ll probably need to beat New England on the final day. The Dolphins are big fans of the Pats the next few weeks, rooting hard for Belichick to rest his starters week 17. That may be their saving grace.

If both Denver and Miami falter and get stuck on nine wins, which is the most likely scenario at this point, then this thing gets thrown wide open.

The nightmare scenario for AFC Wild Card contenders is for both AFC North teams to win out, but with Baltimore beating Pittsburgh week 16. That would put both teams at 10–6 and give the Ravens the division, but Pittsburgh would have a very strong chance at the Wild Card at 10–6 and 8–4 in the conference. The Dolphins and Ravens beat Pittsburgh in a head-to-head tiebreaker, but the Steelers beat just about anyone else and also win any three-or-more-team tiebreaker. AFC Wild Card teams will be rooting for Pittsburgh to win out and knock Baltimore out of the race, though even 9–7 would leave the Ravens strongly in the mix with an 8–4 conference record. If Miami and Denver falter, the AFC North is the most likely beneficiary.

It’s not possible for both Houston and Tennessee to get to 10 wins since they play each other, so an AFC South Wild Card team would have to be 9–7 — either of those teams or Indianapolis. The Titans and/or Colts would be 9–7 and 6–6 in the conference in that scenario, so they’d lose most tiebreakers. The most likely AFC south Wild Card scenario would be the Texans and Titans winning out until week 17 when Tennessee beats Houston to take the division. That would leave Houston 9–7 and 7–5 in conference, but they still lose head-to-head tiebreakers to Denver and Baltimore. Houston’s best Wild Card shot is to be tied at 9 wins with at least two other teams, none of which include an AFC North squad. They should probably just win the division. An AFC South Wild Card would mean disaster — both for these next few weeks of playoff contenders and for us the viewers watching the playoffs.

Buffalo actually has a solid shot at 9–7 with home games against the Browns and Dolphins before a trip to the Jets. That’s Robert Griffin, Matt Moore, and Bryce Petty at QB. Winning out would give Buffalo nine wins but they’d still be only 6–6 in conference and they’d lose almost any tiebreak scenario. Basically Rex Ryan and Tyrod Taylor are playing for their jobs, but boy do they have the schedule to do it. Then again, a home loss to the 0–13 to the Browns this weekend would surely be the final straw for both.

Most likely AFC playoff scenario

1. New England 13+ wins (home field advantage) 2. Kansas City 12+ (bye) 3. Pittsburgh 10+ (home) 4. Houston 9+ (home) 5. Oakland 11+ 6. Miami 10 — — — — — — — 7. Baltimore/Denver/Buffalo 9

As open as everything is right now, all but the final Wild Card could well be locked up heading into week 17 in the most likely scenario. That would leave Miami, Baltimore, and Denver in that order fighting for the Wild Card, and again a resting Patriots opponent for Miami would be huge. A Denver home win over New England this weekend would be a double whammy.

NFC division races

NFC East

Despite being swept by the Giants, Dallas is still in the catbird’s seat for the division and the 1-seed. Dallas is home for Tampa and Detroit the next two weeks and at 11–2, two wins clinches home field advantage, and one will probably suffice. The Giants would need to win all three games and see Dallas lose twice to win the division and secure a bye — ain’t gonna happen.

NFC North

The North is a lot messier than it looks. Detroit is out front safely at 9–4 right now but has a brutal closing stretch with visits to the Giants and Cowboys before a home finale against the Packers. Despite being 9–4, they may well be an underdog in all three games.

The Lions have the biggest variance of any team in the NFL — they could still plausibly finish any seed one to six or could miss the playoffs altogether.

Winning out would leave them just one additional Dallas loss away from the 1-seed, and just winning the home finale against Green Bay clinches the division no matter what else happens. One more win gets them to at least 10–6 with an 8–4 conference record and a pretty likely playoff spot, but it may not be coming.

If the Lions stumble, it looks like the Packers would be the team to take their place. Green Bay plays three divisional games to close the season out and may likely be the favorite at all three. If they win out, they finish 10–6 and hold the tiebreaker over the Lions so they’d need just one more Detroit loss to win the division. Ten wins would also give them a good shot a Wild Card. Minnesota can also win out and get to 10–6 but they’re in much worse shape because they lose almost any tiebreaker. To win the division, they now need to win out and see Detroit lose out. Still it’s a winnable schedule.

It looks like the Packers should ultimately determine the NFC North. Minnesota visits in week 16, and they go to Detroit in the finale. If the Packers win both, they likely win the division. If they win the finale but lose to the Vikings, we could see a three-way tie at nine games.

NFC South

Atlanta and Tampa are tied at 8–5 and are also tied in conference and divisional standings, but one team is a clear favorite here because of the matchups this weekend, and that’s Atlanta. The Falcons host the 49ers as a clear two touchdown favorite, while Tampa is a road underdog by a touchdown in Dallas. The teams each play division foes Carolina and New Orleans to close things out, with one home game apiece.

The fact is that if the results hold as expected this week, it’s Atlanta’s division to lose at 9–5 to Tampa’s 8–6. Atlanta would control its destiny by winning out, but a loss in the final two divisional games while Tampa wins out would throw the division back to the Bucs on divisional record. This one is impossible to project, not knowing how the Panthers and Saints will play, but assuming things are even there, this weekend could make the difference. The Bucs look like they’re tied, but they probably need a shock win in Dallas Sunday night to make this a real race.

NFC West

Despite the Seattle-Arizona tie awhile back, this one is easy. Seattle has a three game lead over the Cardinals. A win Thursday night against the rudderless Rams clinches the division, as does a win in any of their three final divisional games. The Cardinals need to win out and see Seattle lose out to steal the division. Despite the ugly loss to Green Bay, Seattle still has a clear inside track to the two seed. They’re home for LA and Arizona before a trip to San Francisco, so they have an awesome shot at 11–4–1. That means only Detroit winning out to 12–4 could stop them from a bye. They may likely even be able to rest players week 17 with a bye secured.

NFC Wild Cards

The NFC West should just have Seattle, likely as the two seed, and Dallas has already clinched a playoff spot and will very likely be the one seed. That leaves the Giants, Redskins, Lions, Vikings, Packers, Falcons, and Bucs — seven teams for the final four spots.

The Giants are in pole position for the top Wild Card spot. They host the Lions this week before visits to Philly and Washington. Winning the division and a bye would require them winning out and Dallas losing twice, but the Giants have a great shot at a Wild Card with just one more win — especially if it’s against the Lions this week. Two more wins locks them in as the five seed.

The next most likely Wild Card may actually be the divisional rival Redskins. Washington is one team that tied this season and is pretty happy it did right now (instead of losing). At 7–5–1, they can still get to 10–5–1 with wins in Chicago and over Carolina and the Giants. The Redskins largely control their destiny, needing only the likely Tampa loss this week to give them a chance to win out and make it. And they may catch a break week 17 too, where the Giants could conceivably be resting with the five seed locked up. Washington is rooting for the Giants to beat the Lions this weekend. Even if the Redskins lose another game, their 9–6–1 record would require two teams to get to 10 wins to pass them.

The Falcons or Bucs are most likely to step in if one of the NFC East teams stumbles. Atlanta is likely to get to 10 or 11 wins, while Tampa is most likely to get to 9 or 10. Both teams have a good deal of variance. Tampa really needs to steal a win in Dallas this week to stay in good position, or they’re playing catch-up in the division and Wild Card races.

The NFC North is unlikely to provide a Wild Card team but would need it to go to a 10–6 team. Minnesota will have to win out and have a good deal of help elsewhere. Green Bay could get to 10–6 and 8–4 in the conference, which gives them a pretty good chance of winning the division. Otherwise, if Detroit wins the next two games and rests week 17, the Packers could be in great shape. Detroit really just needs one more win to have a great shot at the playoffs. But it’s going to be a dogfight the next three games and it wouldn’t be shocking at all to see them come up short.

Most likely NFC playoff scenario

1. Dallas 13+ wins (home field advantage) 2. Seattle 10.5+ (bye) 3. Atlanta 10 (holds tiebreak over TB and GB) 4. Green Bay 10 (home) 5. NY Giants 11+ 6. Washington 9.5+ — — — — — — — 7. Detroit/Tampa 9 (Detroit loses de facto playoff to Green Bay week 17)

Biggest games to watch over the final 3 weeks

Week 15

Tennessee @ Kansas City Detroit @ NY Giants New England @ Denver Tampa Bay @ Dallas

The Titans, Broncos, and Bucs are all underdogs and each need a win this week badly. A win keeps any of the three alive and well and throws a bye week race open. A loss for any and they’re in trouble.

The Giants and Lions are both 9–4 but have rough closing stretches. Neither is safe for the playoffs by any measure, but the winner here is pretty close.

Week 16

Minnesota @ Green Bay (Christmas Eve, noon CT) Baltimore @ Pittsburgh (Christmas, 3:30 p.m.) Denver @ Kansas City (Christmas, 7:30 p.m.) Detroit @ Dallas (Monday Night Football, Dec. 26)

The winner of the Vikings-Packers game is in pole position for the division if the Lions falter. That’s the one big game on a full Christmas Eve slate.

The other two divisional games may steal the NBA’s Christmas. Baltimore-Pittsburgh is basically for the division and Denver-KC was one of the best games of the year a month ago.

Dallas plays its fifth straight prime time game and is probably looking to clinch the one seed while a road Lions win could give them a shot at the bye or even the top seed.

Week 17

NY Giants @ Washington Houston @ Tennessee Green Bay @ Detroit New England @ Miami Oakland @ Denver

These games may not all matter, but New Year’s Day is sure to belong to the NFL either way. Houston-Tennessee and Green Bay-Detroit look like likely playoff games right now with the winners getting four seeds and home games in the first round.

One or both of the Giants and Redskins should be fighting for playoffs or positioning, while the two later AFC games may see New England or Oakland fighting for a bye while Miami and Denver fight for their playoff lives at home.

It’s a wild ride to the finish! Merry Christmas everyone. Enjoy the games!

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