Detailed Analysis of the US elections 2020
A detailed analysis regarding Joe Biden’s victory against Donald Trump in the recent presidential elections and what can we expect next.
The election for selecting the World’s Most Powerful Person is now finally over. The world is still in the hangover for multiple reasons which we will be discussing in detail today. So do stay tuned till the end for understanding this topic very well.
Two weeks back, we had talked about in-depth regarding the US electoral system, the political parties, US politics, Presidential Election candidates of 2020 and also about who has the upper hand in getting elected to the White House. So, for the better understanding of this article, it is very much preferred that you please read that too before you continue here.
Despite the respective State Secretaries not yet announcing and confirming the results, all major media houses, especially the most reputed and respected Associated Press (AP) has called the race in favour of Joe Biden of the Democratic Party on November 7th. He now leads by around 306 votes and Donald Trump is left with 232. The visuals and infographics which you see on TV and News articles are actually projections which are made by the news outlets based on their experiences and state demographics. For example, it is safe to assume that states like New York and California will vote for Joe Biden as these states have only been voting for Democrats for decades. Similarly, is also safe to assume that states like Louisiana, Idaho, Alabama, etc, will be won by Donald Trump. Also, there are multiple factors which are to be considered here, not just the political history of the state.
US elections polling day
Tuesday, November 3, was the main polling day of the election. This year saw the highest voter turnout in history. Out of 239 million registered voters over 160 million people have voted this time, which makes it 66.9% while it was only 58% last time. The states like Minnesota and Maine saw over 79.2% voting which is the highest in the country. Unlike India or any other country, there is no Central Election Commission. Everything regarding the elections is done at the state level, which means the states conduct the elections as per their own rules and regulations. Only very few states allow the use of voting machines, while ballot paper is still the preferred way of voting in a majority of the states. Voting on the polling day at the polling station is known as In-person voting. Even before the polling day, over 100 million postal votes were already cast. Unlike India, voting day is not a holiday in the US , so a tendency for low turnout as well as higher mail-in voting remains high.
Postal Voting
Also called Mail-in ballots, where the voter can cast their vote by posting the ballot paper. In the past few years, the demand for mail-in voting has always been high. Over 10 states directly send all the voters postal ballots before the election itself. While the 35 other states will provide mails only if any voter applies for it through an application. The remaining five states will allow this only if the voter has a genuine or valid reason for voting in ballots. The postal votes in swing states have thus more value than from the other states. Postal votes are generally sent at least a month before in some states and the date of starting varies. Voting before the election day is known as Early voting. While voting via mail because you can’t vote on the election day is known as absentee ballots. These posts need to be post-marked at least by 3rd November for it to be accepted for the counting process. You can drop them in collection centres, which can be drive-through, drop-off or even post it to the counting centre.
Even for counting, different states decide when they should be counted. The Commonwealth of Pennsylvania opens the Postal ballots only after the polling day time closes while other states open them only on the morning of the polling day while others can begin counting as soon as they reach the station. Since this election was held during the covid-19 pandemic, it was sure that people would prefer postal votes over in-person voting. The US Postal Service is the main facilitator of postal votes.
The Pennsylvania Court passed a controversial verdict just one week before the election which made the Trump-led conservatives unhappy. It said that considering the delay in the process as well as the high number of postal votes, all those mail-in ballots received by 6th of November can also be counted.
On 3rd midnight both the candidates, Donald Trump and Joe Biden addressed the nation regarding their views of the initial results and the counting that was progressing. Joe Biden from his campaign headquarters in Wilmington, Delaware spoke to the crowd, asking them to be patient until all the votes are counted. He also asked everyone to keep faith in the system and in democracy. Donald Trump, along with his family, spoke to his supporters in the White House and addressed the crowd and the nation. First, he mentioned how he is going to get a spectacular victory and how he has won some unexpected states. He later mentions how he is leading in all swing states and declared himself as the victor despite all votes not being counted. He confirmed that he will take the battle against Mail-In ballots to which he referred to as “illegal votes” and that they will be coming in after mid-night and make him lose. At last, he concluded by stating that his campaign will approach the Supreme court regarding the “illegal votes”.
Here is a small glimpse of American voting and counting infographics system
Analysis of Postal Votes Controversy
Later on, the Trump Campaign made multiple efforts in different swing states like Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. In Michigan and Pennsylvania, they alleged that his supporters weren’t allowed to observe the vote count which later-on turned out as false. Large banners came up in various cities demanding “Stop the Count”. In Arizona, where even the Fox News had called in favour of Biden, the Trump campaign demanded that all votes need to be counted because the postal votes narrowed the gap between both of them. Trump supporters took conflicting stances, where they wanted to stop the count in Michigan and keep counting in Arizona.
Even much before the election day, Donald Trump had alleged that the Postal system and Mail-in ballots were a fraud and asked all the Republican voters to turn up on the polling day for voting. On the other hand, Democrats encouraged Mail-in ballots over in-person voting due to congregation and spread of coronavirus. So, both parties were technically polar opposite when it came to postal votes. Also, most blacks are also likely to prefer postal votes this time which will favour Biden.
In various lawsuits which the Trump campaign filed in various courts, none of which were accepted or received any substantial gain on this matter. Despite his multiple calls on Twitter for Stopping the Count and Calling the system fraud, no proof regarding the same could be produced in the respective courts. Social media then came up with conspiracy theories like dead people voting in Michigan which turned out to be a false campaign. Even today as we discuss this topic, he hasn’t given up his desire for power and still believes he can win this election and he will go ahead with legal suits until all options exhaust.
Analysis of the verdict
Everyone had expected before the election from the exit polls that there will be a massive blue wave and Joe Biden’s tally would cross 350, but no such thing happened. There was no blue wave and at multiple points especially on November 3 & 4, the probability of both of them winning was almost the same. Majority of the experts even predicted that Trump might win Georgia and Pennsylvania which would have made the game over for Biden, but both of them didn’t happen. Multiple records and conventional misconceptions and thoughts regarding the elections were all broken this year.
The first record broken this time was how both the candidates crossed the 70 Million mark. President-elect Joe Biden received the highest popular votes total in the history of the US with 80 Million. Almost all exit polls failed to predict a narrow neck on neck fight in many states. Even prediction regarding Florida went wrong. Kamala Harris became the first Woman, Asian, African, Indian, Descendant of Immigrant, Vice President-elect in the country. Joe Biden is the oldest President-elect in the history who won against the oldest rival and who was also the oldest President.
As we know and learnt from the past, both candidates stood strong in their bastions. Donald Trump won in the Central region while Joe Biden in the East and West Coast regions.
The following is an interactive map adapted from ABC News for your understanding of the election dynamics state wise. So please do go to ABC News and simulate and understand how different states decide who will be the future President of the US.
What factors and states helped Trump?
Love him, Hate him but you can’t ignore him. Agree or not, this election was largely based on him and his ideas. It is not even wrong to call it a referendum on Donald Trump and his first term in the office. Coming to which all states voted for him, you can pick it up from the red coloured states on the map. His campaign functioned from Arlington, Virginia on the outskirts of D.C.
Trump won massively in all central states which are rural safe havens of the Republican party. Rural areas always prefer a republican presidential candidate. Trump with this pro-business and non-Washington elite image, had massive support from farmers and workers in these states. The fight against the pandemic or foreign policy or anything which the liberals talk about doesn’t get any traction here. In addition to this, he has managed to win the states with both second largest and the third-largest electoral college votes- Texas and Florida respectively. In Florida, he managed to win more votes than in 2016 as well as he caught hold of Ohio. The other states he has won include- Idaho, Montana, North and South Dakota, Wyoming, Utah, Kansas, Oklahoma, Iowa, Missouri, Arkansas, Lousiana, Mississippi, Tennessee, Indianapolis, Kentucky, Alabama, North and South Carolina, West Virginia and Alaska. He has also won one congressional district in Maine and 4 out of congressional districts in Nebraska.
Unfortunately, he couldn’t hold on to the swing states which landed him a narrow victory last time - Wyoming, Michigan and Pennsylvania. Adding to this, it was a big embarrassment for him to lose the two strong Republican stronghold states of Arizona and Georgia to Joe Biden.
Donald Trump has pretty much ignored the pandemic, has desired to fire the Chief Scientist Dr Fauci and he hasn’t even attended a single Covid-19 task force meeting in the past five months. Post his loss, his campaign is busy collecting donations from his supporters to fund his legal challenges in court. At the same time, this Reuters report clearly shows that this fund goes to Republican National Committee and the Save America PAC and nothing to the defending elections plan.
Who are his voters and supporters?
As we have discussed before, Trump is a good communicator. Whatever he says or tweets gets massive attention. There may be zero fact basis in his tweets but it gets thousands of likes and tweets from both his critics and followers. The more his critics criticize him, the more his propaganda spreads and gets a larger audience and attention. This is how he maintains a very large follower base which is ready to do anything for him. That is why today we see large protests in the heart of DC by his supporters calling the election a fraud. So his success is solely based on emotions and its reverberations that imprint on human minds than facts and figures. Another major part of his victory comes from proving exit polls false, through his mostly silent voter support.
Most of his supporters were asked to vote on the polling day rather than through mail-in ballots, due to the alleged voter frauds. This phenomenon was termed by experts as Red Mirage which means, that Trump will appear winning if the votes of the Polling day is counted first and he can claim he is winning until the mail-in votes are counted.
His populism is one of the best of its kind in the world.
Majority of Trump’s support comes from the rural areas, which is believed to be disconnected from DC and other prosperous regions, so the rural population were always looking for a person who is disconnected from that political elite. Studies have shown that White men who don’t have a college degree favour, Trump. This also resonates in the rural economy, agriculture which Trump has tried to add. American conservatives are fully behind the Republican Party due to its stance on Gun laws, pro-American values, pro-Israel anti-Palestinian stance. Up to an extent he was even successful in stamping the Democrat party as a radical left socialist party. He also converted the BLM movement to his favour by polarizing the white votes to his side. His followers don’t believe in mainstream media, reliable news sources, institutions, etc, but rather rely on social media or far-right-wing sources like Newsmax TV for their news. This is another reason why they fall prey easily to fake news. It is impossible for you to counter them with facts.
So tomorrow even if he leaves office, Trump and the Republican party will still have a large number of loyal supporters and that will be a long term plan which they are executing right now.
What are the factors that favoured Biden?
With 47 years of experience in Public Governance, Senate, Foreign policy, later as the Vice President, he will be the most experienced President ever. This is his big plus point. He has good experience in working with both democrats and republicans. Unlike Sanders or Warren, Biden is a Centrist person and is against multiple Left policies of them. The biggest challenge he had this year was to bring together this fractured party which was divided between the Moderate-Centrists and Progressive-Left. He succeeded in that and this lead to massive support from the party and a grand victory. He also becomes the first President to reach the White House without winning Ohio and Florida.
As always, Democratic party gains from cities where people of all races, across religions, nationalities are present. He was also able to narrow the gap in suburbs too. His massive win came from Urban centers, Cosmopolitan, Rich states- The East and West Coast. He has swept almost the entirety of the large cities in all states including the Red states. If you still can’t believe just check out the maps.
The trend which we discussed the cities continue across the country and in most cases, the urban population in the state outweighs the rural population. That is also why Biden won Hawaii which is a cosmopolitan region, while he lost Alaska. He has for the first time-tossed stronghold states of Georgia and Arizona as well as rebuilt the industrial blue wall states of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. His margin of victory is also much higher than Trump’s victory in 2016. His biggest embarrassment in this election would be his inability to win the state of Florida where the democratic votes have fallen further from 2016.
Coming to state wise victory and toss-ups, it was the postal votes from Allegenhy county which houses the city of Pittsburgh, capital Harrisburg and the city of Philadelphia county which turned the game in Pennsylvania at the eleventh hour. In Georgia, it was the capital city of Atlanta and its suburbs. In Nevada, it was the Clark county which houses the city of Las Vegas and the capital Carson City. The states which he grabbed this time in include California, Oregon, Washington, Nevada, New Mexico, Colorado, Minnesota, Illinois, Virginia, Maryland, New Hampshire, New York, Connecticut, New Jersey, Rhode Island, Delaware, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Vermont, Hawaii, one congressional district in Nebraska and 4 out of 5 congressional districts in Maine in addition to Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Arizona, Georgia and finally the Federal territory- District of Columbia (D.C.).
He is a centrist and that is the biggest reason why he gets votes from all sides. He gets votes from the left, centre and right. Even Republicans who are unhappy with President Trump endorsed Biden. So it will be interesting to see how he will take everyone along.
Who are his supporters and who vote for him?
As discussed before, Biden’s victory can be attributed to both his experience, past work and being a viable alternative to the incumbent President. He has been pretty much critical of the establishment’s handling of the pandemic as well as foreign policy and America’s stature in the Geopolitics under Trump. He also presented how he will be dealing with the pandemic and will restore the faith in science and scientists which has been destroyed by the previous administration.
Just like any Democratic Presidential Nominee, his votes came from Urban voters, educated Whites, Women, Blacks, Immigrants, Hispanics, Indian-Americans, LGBTQ and lot more.
It is pretty clear that all progressive and moderates of the democratic party have voted for him. Unlike Trump, he doesn't have a big loyal supporter base but it is clear that the party is behind him and he has revived the party for time being. Let us hope that he will be able to keep the nation together and heal from all the damages.
A close look at Senate and House of Representatives elections
Although both of these are not so important as far as International Politics is concerned it does affect us in a big way. Just like Lok Sabha and Rajya Sabha, you have House of Representatives and Senate in the US Congress. These elections also happened in parallel to the US Presidential elections. As of 2019, Democrats had control over the House of Representatives with 235(out of 435)seats while Republicans controlled the Senate with 53 seats (out of 100). This time, the Democratic Party has a significant lead of 216 despite losing seven seats and looks to control the house with Nancy Paloski as the Speaker of the house. Although we can see that the Senate hangs in balance with 50 seats for the Republicans, 48 for the Democrats and 2 seats still vacant, while Mitchel McConnell will take charge as the Majority leader. The election for these two seats will decide the future of the Senate, thus the four years of Biden Presidency as the Senate can block his executive orders. The election for these two seats will be held on January 6th of 2021 in the state of Georgia, which both parties are eager for. If it is 50–50 then, Vice President Kamala Harris will receive the tie-break vote. So, even if Joe Biden has won the Presidential race, without the Senate it won’t be easy going for him.
Post-election post result Mood
After the counting was almost over, the mood was clear. On the 14th of December, the electoral college will elect the new President and is officially declared as the POTUS as per the legal terms.
Celebrations in the country
The nation broke out in celebrations as soon as AP called the race after his projected victory in battleground Pennsylvania. Cities of New York, Detroit, California, Philadelphia, D.C., Delaware, etc, saw massive crowds and celebrations for the Democrat victory.
Victory Speech
With the election result almost certain, Biden has confirmed his victory. On the night of 7th November when Associated Press called the race in favour of Joe Biden and Kamala Harris, both of them addressed the nation from their campaign headquarters in Wilmington, Delaware.
Later, she announced Joe Biden’s name to address the nation, where he was seen running to the centre stage. He has termed the election results to be a decisive and convincing victory. He has promised to unite the country, by not dividing as red or blue states but as only the United States. He has also promised to fix the US’ image and respect at the world stage, controlling the pandemic, fixing the healthcare system, and fighting climate change. He ended his speech by thanking people of all demographics for voting him into power.
Trump’s refusal to concede
While Biden has accepted the results, Donald Trump has been refusing to concede the elections and congratulate Joe Biden on his victory. He still claims that the election is rigged and Biden won only because of the same. Multiple tweets of his were flagged by the platform calling his claims misleading and not backed by any substance. This also came amidst the fact that his own Government Agency, the Department of Homeland Security declaring that this was the safest election in history. He had to fire the Election safety Cyber-Chief for claiming that there was no voter fraud and the election was secure. He also fired the Defense Secretary, Mark Esper, through Twitter, saying that he didn’t fully comply with the administration. It was believed that he was against the Administrative decision to withdraw from Afghanistan and wanted to delay Trump’s plan of withdrawing before Christmas.
A manual recount is now taking place in the state of Georgia where Biden won with a thin margin, even now Joe Biden is still leading. The Republican Governor of the state claimed that he is receiving death threats from his own party members.
His supporters, far-right activists, etc, are rallying calling for the protection of election integrity and claiming that this election was fraudulent and they won’t accept the results. This was named as Million MAGA march.
A fractured society
Many news outlets believe that the verdict is fractured and has divided the country. It has divided the United States into Red and Blue, Regions into Urban and Rural, Americans to White and Black, Conservatives and Liberals, voters to pro-Trump and anti-Trump, Republican and Democrat, people who believe in the system and those who don’t. All these divisions deepen at the cost of nation and its people.
A podcast
We have esteemed guests for the podcast :
- Roshan Antony from Kochi, Kerala, India. Follow him on Twitter. Read his article on MUNner’s Daily. from Trivandrum, Kerala, India.
- Ashwin Saji follows him on Instagram. Read his article on MUNner’s Daily.
Both the panellists have been closely following the elections and really have a lot of their views and insights to share with you all, so please do check out the podcast from your favourite platform. Detailed summary and transcript attached here.
Reactions by the World leaders and the community
Most of the countries around the globe have welcomed the victory of Joe Biden. There was already a massive preparation in the majority of the democratic countries for the Biden Presidency but now it is certain. UK PM Boris Johnson, EU Commission head, French President Macron, Indian PM Narendra Modi, Canadian PM Trudeau, Paris Mayor, London Mayor, Pakistan PM Imran Khan, Iranian PM Hassan Rouhani, Japanese PM Yoshihide Suga, South Korean PM Moon Jae In, then leaders of Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia etc, as well. It was only on 13th November, China accepted Biden’s Victory while Russia is yet to do so.
Peaceful Transfer of Power/Transition of Power
The President-elect doesn’t get into power as soon as the results but will need to wait till the Inauguration which will take place on January 20, 2021. Until then, the President-elect is allowed to work closely with the present administration so as to ensure that the power is transferred smoothly between the two. This is the cornerstone of American Democracy.
While it was a matter of concern from the beginning itself, regarding the same between the Trump and prospective Biden Administration. This question was put by Chris Wallace of Fox News during the first Presidential debate when he refused to answer. The peaceful transfer of power starts with the nod from the General Services Administration (GSA) which initiates the process. Quite analogous to Indian Bureaucratic System, although unlike India, there is no cadre system in the US.
Even Donald Trump and his aides have refused to accept the result and refused the transfer of power. In a Press conference in White House, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said that there will be a transition to Trump Administration 2.0.
Future Biden Administration
Joe Biden and Kamala Harris have already started their work and the pick of their cabinet members. The priority has been establishing Coronavirus Taskforce and National security. Indian Americans Vivek Murthy and Ajay Mujumdhar are likely to be there in the cabinet as well.
Despite this, the delay in power transition will really put Biden under pressure and experts also claim it will be a threat to national security as well, as the US will be weakest during the transition period. Adding to that, there comes the firing of staff in the administration. This will also lead to difficulty in coordinating the fight against the pandemic as well.
The Inauguration
This will be the day when the 46th President will take charge officially. It will be held on January 20th, 2021 in the heart of the District of Columbia (D.C.). The oath-taking ceremony of both President and Vice President will take place. Joe Biden is said to be the first President to be from Delaware. The Joint Congressional Committee is in charge of the inauguration.
Conclusion
This election has been one of its kind in history. Most people even claim it to be the most important one as well. Joe Biden, despite his victory, will have to work hard to fight the pandemic, undo Trump’s mistakes, keep his promises, work together with both Republicans and Democrats, keep his party and the country united. Let us hope America will once again stand out for what it should be.
Credits and References
This article wouldn’t have been a reality without the help of news sources. All the facts mentioned in the article has been cited with a valid news-source. There is no intention to malign, defame, promote, demote, hurt personal, religious or political sentiments in the article. Everything mentioned is purely meant for awareness and for having an informed mind on an important topic.
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