COVID: Did You Read My Prediction? Was I Right? … or Did I Get It Wrong?
This is my COVID Bulletin №10: “Did you read my prediction?”
My COVID Bulletin №10 asks: ‘Did You Read My Prediction?’ … it takes a look at where we are at this point in time … with a look back at previous bulletins in my series, particularly COVID Bulletin №8 in which I asked the question: Which Variant will be ‘The Best’?
In that Bulletin … (№8), I was bold enough to make a prediction, and I made it at the end of December 2021. So, in the spirit of proper research and honest endeavour, I thought it only right to re-visit the topic to check it out against the reality of ‘COVID now’. (There are links to all my previous bulletins at the end of this article )
Note: As before, I write from a science background, having access to updated real COVID Bulletins, via my membership of The Royal Society of Biology, but the following views may also contain opinions that are entirely my own. As always, I attempt to make my findings readable, in the hope that they will add to your own on-going knowledge … giving you a more accurately picture of COVID-19:
My bulletin №8 in December ’21 offered a summary of how I thought things would turn out in 2022.
I said:
“You might think that the best variant would be the one that causes the most damage; the most hospitalizations; the most deaths. To take this thinking to its logical conclusion, you may be tempted to think that ultimately, the best variant, will turn out to be the most aggressive one of all …the one that manages to infect everyone, and everyone dies! … Full-time … blow the whistle … that’s it …the end!”
* * * * Full time … blow the whistle … the end! * * * *
I also said:
“You would be wrong to come to that conclusion. Why? Because, if a virus kills off all its hosts there would be no more hosts to infect; no more hosts to support its own life and ‘living’. It too would be dead!”
I suggested that a better answer to the question ‘Which variant will be the best?’ would be: ‘The variant with the most efficient rate of infection WITHOUT killing off its hosts en masse’. Think about it … It makes sense.”
So … where are we now? … Which Variant is The Best right now?:
COVID-19 has certainly demonstrated an ability to produce variations. You are probably familiar with the Alpha, Delta, and Omicron variations … these being the ones that ‘made the headlines’. But did you know that the Omicron variant alone had produced at least 50 sub-variants of its own basic conformation by late 2021 … each slightly-different and with slightly different genetic coding … each having a differing ability to infect and a different severity level for the infected host, and in 2022 … even more variants.
As an example, by end-of March 2022, we were seeing the emergence of a new Omicron variant: BA.2. BA.2, also coined as the “stealth” variant, is a relative of Omicron’s original variant, BA.1, which tore through many communities throughout the world last year and into the New Year period. In the months since, BA.2 emerged as the dominant strain in those parts of the world that it has reached, and other variants are on the horizon.
Thankfully, like Omicron BA.1, these newer variants have thus far proved to be milder than the previous COVID strains including Delta. They are however, far more infectious.
Does any of the above info and analysis make sense?
And, does it in any way match my prediction for 2022? By the way, what was my prediction? In December 2021, I said: ‘If “a better than the best variation” means being “best for all” (i.e. for virus and host) then this is my prediction:
“Eventually (via a few more virus generations & variations), we will see a balancing out of serious viral infection and human reaction to it. The ‘winner’ virus will become a global endemic … contained, but not eradicated … permanently ‘there’ … and ‘accepted’ everywhere. The ‘winner’ variant will be less severe, having achieved ‘balance-for survival’, managing to spread & infect, but without killing off all its host. and, We will have learned to ‘cope’ with it; to live with it, in much the same way as we have come to live with the Flu virus.”
Question: Does the variation BA.2 and subsequent variants fit the above description? Is the world (your part of it) learning to cope with; to live with; and to deal COVID in much the same way that it has come to live with the Flu virus? Answer: I think we are ‘getting there’, but (forgive the pun): “don’t hold your breath”.
A Few Final Comments:
(first aired at end of my Dec 2021 Bulletin):
When the situation of ‘COVID-is-everywhere’ is reached (and it will be!), then: 1. We will have learned to live with it. 2. It will no longer be a pandemic because it will be everywhere (endemic). 3. We will no longer be constantly worrying about it. + consider this: 4. We take our annual ‘Flu-shot’ without much thought or fear. 5. Every year, the Flu vaccine is a different version … do you ever think ‘why?’ You do know the answer … It’s so simple … The flu virus (like the COVID-19 virus) produces variations constantly … This year’s flu virus is a different variation to that of last year’s and needs a new (variational) vaccine to deal with it.
And because it’s exactly the same with the COVID-19 virus, I am confident in my prediction that we will see (maybe seeing already?) a balancing out of serious viral infection and human reaction to it, in much the same way that we have come to see and deal with the Flu virus.
This article is one of my series of COVID Bulletins. To read the whole series, just click on this link
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“COVID … Did You Read My Prediction?” is written by Fred: writer on Medium * * * * * © Fred Ogden 2022 * * * * *
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