Can Republicans Snatch Defeat From the Jaws of Victory?

Three potential game-changers might upend GOP plans for 2022 and beyond

Photo from iStock Images, standard usage license. MAGA hat added by author.

In a recent post, I argued that Democrats have used the last two years to commit political suicide. Millions of Americans, battered and bruised by four years of Trumpian insanity, managed to scrape together the narrowest of wins for Democrats in the Senate and barely saved a majority in the House. Given how the Senate is heavily biased in favor of Republican majorities and how gerrymandered districts provide safe haven for many extremist Republicans in the House, Democrats were lucky to get that.

But then these “winners” engaged in the unforgivable: They made big promises that they could not keep, allowed two rogue members of their own caucus to block everything Americans elected them to do, and humiliated themselves in a way that seemed irrecoverable. A landslide of 2010 proportions seemed the only possible outcome.

That outcome is still the most likely to occur … but only if Republicans don’t manage to shoot themselves in the face first.

Over the last few months, three developments have emerged — all direct consequences of Republican overreach and lawlessness — that could … maybe, possibly … finally cause just enough of a backlash to give Democratic majorities in Congress and democracy itself one more chance at survival.

What could possibly motivate American voters to give a second chance to Democrats, who have so spectacularly failed everyone who worked so hard to put them back in power in 2020?

It’s not going to be any renewed faith in Democrats, that’s for sure, but rather a wider recognition that Republicans are indeed dangerous, unhinged, and unfit to put in charge of America. And if that outcome should come to pass, Republicans will have only themselves to blame (although I’m sure they will figure out a way to blame immigrants, women, pedophiles, and Satanists).

Here are the three developments currently gathering force in the American public that could thwart Republican hopes for a Congressional takeover in 2022, at least in the Senate.

Each of these developments is likely to send shock waves through the American electorate in the next few months leading up to the November midterms.

One has already landed, one is just starting to be appreciated, and one awaits a judicial reckoning that has been a long time coming but now seems unavoidable.

SCOTUS and Republican legislatures ban abortion and mobilize women across America

I have written elsewhere about our newly-minted Christian Fascist Supreme Court Majority and its mission to transform America into a theocracy in which the only rights that matter are those of wealthy white Christian men.

It is not just the content of the leaked Alito draft decision overturning Roe v. Wade — which is in itself monstrous — that is capturing the attention of America’s women (and more than a few men) in a potentially unprecedented way.

Rather, it’s the subsequent glee, celebration, and what can only be described as bloodlust unleashed in Republican-controlled state legislatures that has stunned many Americans. Indeed, Republican legislators seem to be competing with each other to see who can enact the most onerous, cruel, and invasive anti-abortion laws: not just banning abortion, but criminalizing it as murder, blocking medical treatment for pregnant women suffering life-threatening complications, giving new rights of parenthood to rapists and pedophiles (some irony there), deputizing citizens to spy on their neighbors’ daughters and wives, criminalizing out-of-state travel for women seeking abortions in other states, and extending bans from abortion to all forms of family planning, including birth control.

What Republicans may have underestimated is the stench produced by their wildly celebratory reaction to the leaked Alito draft ruling. Displaying their usual lack of self-awareness, Republicans have reveled in this latest opportunity to broadcast their intent to inflict unspeakable cruelty on some of the most vulnerable among us. They are actively cementing their brand as the Party not only of racism, but also of patriarchy, hierarchy, misogyny, and heartless cruelty.

How is this a threat to the Party’s plans? It’s too early to tell, but initial reactions to the Alito draft should give Republicans cause for concern. In a classic “dog catches car” scenario, the Supreme Court has now forced the Party to own what it has been promoting for decades — a dogmatic embrace of a religious doctrine that overturns established law while being supported by only a few Americans outside the Republicans’ core base. Mitch McConnell’s reaction is telling: rather than celebrating, he wants to downplay the content of the decision and focus on “who leaked the draft?”

What Republicans need to worry about is not whether overturning Roe will cause women to vote differently but whether it will cause them to turn out in greater numbers, energized by grassroots activists and motivated by what has until now been the Republicans’ secret weapon: existential fear.

Not to get too far down into the weeds, but possibly relevant here are two psychological effects well-known to marketers and behavioral scientists: loss aversion and the endowment effect. Loss aversion is the principle that losses loom larger than equivalent gains in human decision making. So losing federal protections for women’s reproductive rights may be much more motivating than gaining a ban on that right. Indeed, the latter might even demotivate single-issue Republican voters. As two sociologists observed in a recent Washington Post editorial on this topic:

conservative religious women who have cared so much about ending abortion rights may claim victory and go home. If that happens, the Democrats would gain a larger portion of the women’s vote this fall, improving their chances.

Similarly, the endowment effect is a psychological propensity to put a higher value on something if we already own it vs. not owning it. Roe v. Wade has protected women’s reproductive rights for 50 years. Removing that protection is likely to trigger a significant endowment effect reaction, even among women (and men) who may never expect to need that protection themselves. As the Post article further notes:

the decision to overturn Roe would take away a right that most U.S. women assumed was settled law throughout their lifetimes. Previous studies demonstrate that the threat of policy change that results in losing something can profoundly motivate citizens to vote. This is particularly true if it is combined with one or more groups’ efforts to mobilize those citizens to vote.

Additionally, the move to strike down Roe contradicts what several recently confirmed justices suggested publicly and privately to U.S. senators during their confirmation process. The justices’ apparent reversal on these public statements has many people concerned that other rights could be withdrawn, as well, including marriage for same-sex couples or women’s access to birth control.

Losing established rights sparks fear — which is a strong motivator for voting. The Supreme Court’s potential decision overturning Roe gives Democrats an opportunity to campaign on what else voters could lose if they sit out the fall elections or vote for the opposing party. (emphasis added)

The leaked SCOTUS decision to overturn Roe is truly unprecedented. Never before has a Supreme Court majority so gratuitously struck down an established right enjoyed and approved by so many Americans, and done so for strictly partisan and religious reasons that most Americans do not share. The effects of this decision, including the piling-on of merciless “trigger laws” across the land that directly threaten the lives and well-being of American women, is impossible to ignore. It will be relentlessly covered in the press every day, right up to election day.

As the saying goes, this could leave a mark.

Republican primary voters elevate candidates so extreme and beholden to Donald Trump that general election voters reject them

As the 2022 primary season unfolds, Republicans, in their insurrectionist fervor, are selecting candidates for federal and state office who are so extreme and unhinged that they may well trigger normally quiescent and marginally-engaged general election voters to turn out just to vote against them, despite antipathy toward Democrats and all the voter suppression Republican legislatures have put in place.

In many states, Republican primary voters seem to have forgotten that not every voter in their state or congressional district is as anxious to overthrow American democracy as they are.

In the eyes of the few independent voters who still exist in America (about 12% of the voting public, according to the 2020 American National Election Study), politics in general is often seen as a fool’s playground, but crazy and corrupt are still generally frowned upon. This was evident in the 2020 presidential election, in which self-described Independents gave Joe Biden an 18-point win over Donald Trump (59% vs. 41%). But crazy and corrupt are apparently what Republican primary voters think the rest of us are looking for in 2022.

Let’s take a look at how Republican primaries are shaping up.

In Pennsylvania, where a currently Republican Senate seat is up for grabs, Republicans are still counting votes between Mehmet Oz, a celebrity talk-show host who promotes pseudoscience and bogus medical treatments, and Dave McCormick, a more traditional Wall Street-friendly multi-millionaire hedge fund manager who has gone full MAGA in his efforts to take down his Trump-endorsed opponent. Both enthusiastically support overturning Roe v. Wade.

The winner, once determined, will face an unusual Democratic candidate, John Fetterman, who won decisively across both rural and urban Pennsylvania regions. A flip of this seat from Red to Blue is a definite possibility, especially as Republicans burn up valuable time recounting their votes and determining who their candidate is going to be.

Also in Pennsylvania, we should not forget the potential Democratic mobilizing impact of Doug Mastriano, the chosen GOP candidate for Governor. Mastriano is a religious zealot, radical Christian Nationalist, and confessed future criminal (he believes God commands him to overthrow the 2024 election if a Democrat wins in PA). He helped lead the state’s “Stop the Steal” movement and participated in the storming of the Capitol on January 6, earning a January 6 Committee subpoena for his efforts. He supports outlawing abortion, with no exceptions, including the life of the mother, and has referred to the practice as a “barbaric holocaust.” Republicans are properly worried that Mastriano may be a mobilization magnet that will bolster Democrats up and down the Pennsylvania ballot in 2022. He apparently is the Party’s biggest Trump-endorsed embarrassment.

In Georgia, Republicans have chosen ex-football player and Trump-endorsed political novice Herschel Walker to run against incumbent Senator Raphael Warnock. Walker is a classic Trump pick: well-known as a celebrity in an unrelated field, no relevant experience, shady past business dealings, multiple embarrassing gaffes, and a history of domestic violence and abuse (funny how often that pops up in Trump-endorsed candidates).

In Ohio, a potentially tight race is shaping up between Trump-supported author, chameleon, and Silicon Valley transplant J.D. Vance and long-time Ohio native and populist Democratic Congressman Tim Ryan. Vance has shown himself to be particularly adept at flip-flopping when deeming it politically expedient to do so. Also, his venture-capitalist background may prove a hard sell for Ohio working-class voters, especially when put up against Ryan’s record. Vance may also have some trouble with pro-choice voters, given his statement that abortion bans do not need exceptions for rape and incest since these are just “inconveniences” from the point of view of the fetus and “two wrongs don’t make a right”. However, to his credit, he has not been accused of beating his wife.

The same cannot be said for Trump-endorsed Ohio House candidate Max Miller, a former Trump campaign and White House aide who won the GOP nomination in a new 7th District in northeast Ohio. Miller has been accused of a history of aggressive behavior, including slapping his ex-girlfriend, who happens to be a former Trump press secretary. Unfortunately for Miller, denial that he is a woman-beater is now a regular feature of his campaign.

Meanwhile, in North Carolina, Republicans have nominated Congressman Ted Budd as their candidate for the Senate seat recently vacated by Republican Richard Burr. Budd is a full-throated Big Lie advocate who was one of 147 House Republicans who voted to overturn the 2020 election. He still refuses to admit that Biden won. Budd has also decided to stake out a position as a waffler on abortion: he says he’s against it, but he wants to “leave the door open” for allowing exceptions for rape, incest, and the life of the mother.

Finally, there’s deep red Missouri, where Republican voters have nominated former Governor Eric Greitens to run for the Senate seat vacated by Republican Roy Blunt. Greitens has the distinction of having been indicted for felony invasion of privacy and felony computer tampering and campaign-finance offenses. All felony charges were later dropped, but Greitens was forced to resign his Governorship after less than 2 years on the job. Also in 2018, Greitens was accused of sexual assault by his former hairdresser. A subsequent state legislature investigation found the woman “overall credible” and issued a report on the incident. Early campaign polling indicates that the Democratic candidate, Lucas Kunce, is benefiting from Greitens’ scandal-ridden past.

Let’s not get overly optimistic. Each of these races could be won or lost for many different reasons. Democrats are facing gale-force headwinds thanks to rising inflation, sinking popularity numbers, and their own self-inflicted blunders. But elections are won one race at a time. As in war, preparation and motivation are key ingredients of any victory. If Republicans insist on fielding candidates who are unacceptable to all but the most diehard MAGA cultists, they may find themselves surprised in November, even if voters have to hold their noses to vote against them.

Trump gets indicted, along with many in his inner circle

This is the big one. The nation continues to wait on Trump’s legal reckoning. Will the twice-impeached Former Guy be charged for any of his myriad crimes … or not? Will a President who tried to overthrow the government be held accountable for his efforts … or not? We have waited so long, it often feels like a reckoning will never come.

But compelling evidence is stacking up that the case against Donald Trump is moving forward within the Department of Justice. Here are a few leading indicators that have emerged over the last few months:

December 14, 2021: Liz Cheney, Republican co-chair of the Jan. 6 Committee, explicitly identifies a crime Trump may have committed — corruptly seeking to disrupt a Congressional proceeding — a felony punishable by up to 20 years in prison.
March 2, 2022: In a court filing in a civil case in California, the January 6 Committee’s lawyers lay out evidence for criminal charges against Trump and others, including violations of laws against obstructing an official proceeding of Congress and conspiracy to defraud the American people.
March 28: The federal judge in the California civil case, after reviewing the evidence provided by the January 6 Committee, rules that Trump and lawyer John Eastman most likely committed crimes over the 2020 election: “the illegality of the plan was obvious.” He calls the actions taken by Trump and Eastman “a coup in search of a legal theory.” Legal observers note that the judge’s ruling has no direct effect on DOJ deliberations but may have been written to provide a template for a federal criminal indictment.
March 29: The Justice Department’s proposed budget for FY 2023 includes a provision to spend $34 million to hire 80 attorneys to bolster the investigation into the Jan. 6 insurrection.
March 30: A Washington Post investigative report reveals new details about ongoing DOJ activities, noting that a federal grand jury is indeed in place and is issuing subpoenas to Trump associates who were involved in planning, funding, and executing the Jan. 6 rally leading up to the Capitol attack.
May 4: In a filing accompanying his guilty plea on seditious conspiracy charges, a member of the paramilitary Oath Keepers reveals that his group’s leader, Stewart Rhodes, tried to reach Donald Trump on the evening of January 6 to get the President’s approval to use his group to forcibly stop the certification process that was restarting in the Capitol following the dispersal of the mob. He was not successful in reaching the President, but the fact that he tried to do so is being investigated as possible evidence that Trump was directing the conspiracies for which both Oath Keepers and Proud Boys have been charged.
May 20: Court filings by Trump lawyer John Eastman confirm that Eastman worked directly with Trump on planning the Jan. 6 events and received two handwritten notes from Trump (which he is trying to avoid disclosing) in which Trump apparently provided advice to Eastman regarding how to overturn the election results in Pennsylvania. In addition to massive amounts of circumstantial evidence, the existence of these notes could prove Trump’s direct role in planning and executing the coup, the final piece needed to prove criminal intent on Trump’s part.
May 27: Let’s not forget Trump’s legal troubles in Georgia, where the Fulton County District Attorney is reported to be issuing up to 50 subpoenas in a grand jury investigation of Trump’s aggressive efforts to overturn the Georgia presidential vote. This is the one where he is on tape demanding the Secretary of State find “11,780 votes, which is one more than we have.” Soliciting voter fraud in Georgia is a felony punishable by up to three years in prison.

All this evidence points to a growing likelihood that Donald Trump and multiple co-conspirators will soon be charged with one or more felonies resulting from his efforts to overturn the 2020 election.

What we’re interested in here is not the legal maneuverings around this unprecedented action, which will be epic and ongoing for years, but rather the more immediate optics and reverberations of such a development, particularly with regard to how it might impact the November midterm elections.

The short answer, of course, is “who knows?”

But a few things seem likely: Once the nation sees former President Trump perp-walked out of Mar-a-Lago, watches him being booked and fingerprinted at some local police station, and then sees his disheveled mug-shot reprinted all around the world … well, America is never going to be quite the same.

Some further repercussions also seem likely. Media coverage will obsessively dwell on each specific charge against him. Pundits will endlessly debate how many years in prison he’s likely to face. Evidence of his crimes will be pored over in excruciating detail. Speculation will run rampant about who will be indicted next.

In this post-indictment world, court appearances and legal filings will be our main windows into Trump’s life. A new image of him will emerge: not a strongman astride the world in all his narcissistic glory, but a pitiful fly trapped in a legal spider’s web of his own making — powerless, sad, and bereft of makeup, corset, or wig. Not the kind of “leader” most people would want to follow.

You may love him or you may hate him, but none of that will matter. Donald Trump will be in the clutches of the American legal system and he will be held accountable for his crimes. He will be ground down, slowly but surely. Your feelings (finally) will have nothing to do with it.

With regard to the upcoming midterms, how is Trump’s arrest going to affect all those Republican candidates who are running on his endorsement and positioning themselves as his loyal soldiers? I think they are going to start looking pretty foolish and very compromised. Given the baggage most of them are already carrying (see above), let’s just say Trump’s arrest isn’t going to help them.

What Democrats need to save democracy

These three developments interlock like pieces of a jigsaw puzzle. SCOTUS decides to take away women’s rights. Republicans pile on in celebration, promoting con men, miscreants, and criminals to run for state and federal offices across the land. All declare opposition to a women’s right to control her own body. All pledge obeisance to Donald Trump. All continue to worship Trump as America’s savior, anointed by Jesus himself to lead America into the promised land. Then Trump gets indicted, and the whole house of cards comes crashing down. The Jesus endorsement begins to look … not so prescient.

The future of American democracy basically comes down to whether Democrats can gain a total of at least 52 seats in the Senate in November. Fifty-two is the minimum for a functioning majority, because Democrats must overcome the votes of Party traitors Manchin and Sinema if they want to pass democracy-saving legislation. Can they pull it off?

The Democrats’ 2022 Senate map is not nearly as bad as people tend to assume, given all the doom and gloom surrounding Democrats’ ongoing pratfalls. Democrats are defending five more or less vulnerable seats. Only one is seriously contested, and that’s Rafael Warnock’s seat in Georgia, where Republicans just nominated political lightweight Herschel Walker, a candidate who will do little to help himself.

Beyond the Georgia race, Democrats are in pretty strong positions defending incumbent Senators in Arizona (Mark Kelly), Nevada (Catherine Cortez Masto), New Hampshire (Maggie Hassan), and Colorado (Michael Bennet). In all four cases, Democrats are enjoying solid leads in the polling so far.

Republicans, in contrast, are vulnerable in a number of states where former Republican incumbents have left open seats (Pat Toomey in PA, Richard Burr in NC, Rob Portman in OH, Roy Blunt in MO), and the party has nominated weak or flawed candidates to replace them. Republicans could conceivably lose any or all of these races. In addition, Republican incumbent Ron Johnson is vulnerable in Wisconsin, given his track record as an election denier, vaccine skeptic, and enthusiastic Russian propagandist. However, we won’t know who his opponent will be until after Wisconsin holds its primaries on August 9. There are also two longshot races that could flip, but only in extraordinary circumstances: Chuck Grassley in Iowa and Marco Rubio in Florida.

So, Democrats could realistically lose no seats in November, or possibly one seat if Walker manages to prevail in Georgia. Republicans, on the other hand, could realistically lose up to five seats if the three developments I’ve outlined above come to pass. Democrats could afford to lose three of those races if Warnock keeps his seat, or two if he does not.

The difference between a 52 seat Senate majority in the next Congress and today’s 50 seat majority is the difference between a fighting chance to save democracy and no chance at all.

That’s it. That’s all the hope I can muster. Just as Blanche DuBois had to depend on the kindness of strangers in “A Streetcar Named Desire,” so Democrats must depend on the idiocy and incompetence of Republicans.

What about the upcoming January 6 Committee hearings?

It seems pretty likely that the Committee will uncover a few incumbent Republican House members who were complicit in the coup attempt, such as Barry Loudermilk, who led insurrectionist tours on Jan. 5. But those members tend to come from safe districts where even a Blue Wave of mobilized Democratic voters is unlikely to unseat them. Don’t expect to see them driven from office by voters, nor expelled by a House vote (where every decision seems to be accompanied by a “what if they do this to me next year?” calculation). What would be required here would be DOJ indictments of House members on criminal conspiracy charges along with Trump and other co-conspirators. All things considered, that’s probably unlikely. The only way we’ll get those folks out of Congress is in handcuffs.