British Experts Unveil a Worrying Future for This Pandemic — With 4 Possible Scenarios

Scenario one: a variant becomes more virulent. Such as MERS-CoV (~35% lethality).

The UK has a report that predicts the future.

England is one of the countries most affected in Europe by the coronavirus crisis. It, therefore, commissioned a group of experts to assess the future of the pandemic.

The results were not long in coming.

The report was published on July 26. And analyzes the long-term development of SARS-CoV-2.

The study states that the eradication of SARS-CoV-2 will be unlikely, so they are sure that in the future, there will always be new variants of SARS-CoV-2.

How many variants?

That will depend on the control measures. That is why we must continue to respect safety measures.

The report describes the 4 hypothetical scenarios by which SARS-CoV-2 could continue to evolve and acquire, through mutation, worrying phenotypes.

After reading and analyzing the 15 pages of the report, I have synthesized the information clearly and concisely to explain you in this article.

Let’s start.

First scenario

A variant becomes more virulent and affects more people because it spreads more rapidly.

For example,

A variant with a morbidity/mortality similar to that of other zoonotic coronaviruses. Such as MERS-CoV (~35% lethality).

In this scenario, 1 in 3 infected persons would not survive the virus.

This could be caused by point mutations or recombination with other host or virus genes.

What can be done to avoid this scenario?

• Consider booster doses of vaccine to maintain protection against severe disease.
• Reduce transmission of SARS-CoV-2 to reduce the risk of point mutations and recombination.
• Minimize the introduction of new variants from other territories to reduce the risk of recombination between variants.
• Specific surveillance of reverse zoonoses. The virus can affect animals. Therefore monitoring is recommended.
• Continue to monitor the severity of disease associated with variants (to identify changes in phenotype).
• Continue to develop improved prophylactic and therapeutic drugs for SARS-CoV-2 and disease symptoms. It is also crucial to stockpile large quantities of these drugs for when they may be needed.

Second scenario

A variant evades current vaccines.

This second scenario states that some new variants of the virus can bypass the protection of current vaccines. This could be caused by an antigenic change.

The likelihood of this happening, according to the report, is high.

What can be done to avoid this scenario?

• A vaccine platform similar to the one that has been used successfully in the original Wuhan SARS-CoV-2 and subsequent variants could be employed quickly. But there would be a delay in deployment while these vaccines are generated in sufficient quantities to control and mitigate the effects of the disease.
• Maintain the ability to manufacture vaccines with updated variants.
• Begin development of a universal vaccine against coronavirus with strong cross-protection against other CoVs.
• Continue to vaccinate vulnerable age groups, at regular periods, with vaccines updated to dominant antigenically drifted variants to increase individual’s immune protection against SARS-CoV-2 variants.
• Monitor antigenic variants. And update candidate vaccines.
• Conduct revaccination clinical trials with antigenically distant vaccines.
• Consider clinical trials of multivalent vaccines.
• Implement the remaining measures of scenario one.

Third scenario

The emergence of a drug-resistant variant following antiviral strategies.

The third scenario is established as likely that new variants of the virus that emerge will be immune to drugs. This may be due to misuse and poor administration of the drugs.

What can be done to avoid this scenario?

• Use the knowledge on the deployment of antivirals against RNA viruses such as HIV and influenza virus.
• Use only combination antiviral therapy, using ≥2 drugs with different targets or mechanisms of action.
• Preserve the use of antivirals for an emergency in which a SARS-CoV-2 variant is more severe, and a suitable vaccine is not available and takes time to develop.
• Use antivirals with caution in immunocompromised individuals in whom long-term progression may occur.

Fourth scenario

SARS-CoV-2 follows an evolutionary trajectory with decreasing virulence.

According to experts, this is the least likely scenario in the short term. But very likely in the long term.

I will repeat this so that we understand that if we do things right, there is still hope,

The likelihood that the virus will be less virulent in the long term is very likely. And that is “great” news.

In this scenario, virulence decreases, but the transmission does not. In other words, the virus continues to spread even if its effects are less harmful.

Therefore, vulnerable people would be affected, in the same way, as they are affected by other common endemic diseases.

This scenario may be caused by the appearance of new virus variants with greater transmissibility but less virulence.

In this way, the virus eventually adapts to the host (the human being) and becomes an endemic infection.

In short, in this scenario, the virus would resemble other human CoVs that cause common colds.

General considerations to further reduce variant impacts

The report concludes with a series of recommendations and tips to control the impact of new virus variants that may appear. The most important of these are as follows,

• Conduct research that focuses on vaccines that induce high and long-lasting levels of mucosal immunity to reduce infection and transmission in vaccinated individuals.
• Proactively support an effective worldwide vaccination strategy to reduce the global viral load and the likelihood of dangerous variants emerging in other parts of the world.
• Implement a long-term strategy for national and global genomic surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 to monitor variants.
• Ensure sustainability of laboratory phenotypic assessment of variants at scale to work alongside clinical observations. And assess risk compared to contemporary variants.
• Invest in laboratory studies that can be used to predict variant evolution and better interpret genomic surveillance.
• Integrate data from studies with AI methods.
• Legislate processes for rapid collection and sharing of viral sequences. And sharing of viral sequences, clinical and biological materials, especially virus isolates globally.
• Careful use of antivirals. Since in the face of the threat posed by new variants, these therapeutic options are precious resources and should not be wasted.

Final thoughts

The future is in our hands.

If we get the virus to mutate as little as possible. Likely, the first three scenarios will not happen.

The most favorable scenario is the fourth. But for this to happen, we have to control infections and continue with the vaccination policy.

Solidarity is more important than ever. Our personal decisions have never been more vital than now.

You can decide to contribute to the fourth desirable scenario. One where the virus loses strength, and we all survive. Or, on the contrary, you can skip the restrictions, do not get vaccinated, go to parties and illegal events, etc., and spread the virus with your attitude promoting the first three scenarios.

Remember, in one of these three scenarios, one out of every three infected dies. That’s a lot of people.

If there are 7 billion people in the world, imagine how many would lose their lives in the first scenario. Too many.

So many that I don’t think anyone would survive because the whole world would turn into a ball of fire due to anarchy and anger.

Every time you don’t respect the safety distance. And don’t wear a mask… your selfishness is directly responsible for the tragedy.

Selfishness is the real pandemic, but like any virus, it has its vaccine. And this is called solidarity.

So show solidarity, respect the rules, and you will see that together we will get out of this.

If you have read to the end of the article, I want to thank you for your support. I hope this article has helped you. If so, let me know in the comments. I really appreciate it.

Thanks for reading. Alberto García (Malafama1981).

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