Who Are the Biggest Losers if the NBA Season Gets Cancelled?

Everyone loses if Coronavirus steals the NBA season, but some lose more than others. If we truly don’t get basketball again this season, who are the biggest losers?

WHAT IF THE 2019–20 NBA SEASON GETS CANCELLED? It’s a question we are now forced to grapple with, one that becomes more real with each passing week of unknown. This is The Year of Coronavirus, and the entire sporting world has come to a screeching halt. There’s no basketball, and there may not be for the foreseeable future. But what if the worst truly comes to fruition? What if the rest of the season gets cancelled?

To be clear, there are much bigger problems in the world today, but that’s the worst-case scenario in the world of basketball. What if there’s simply no viable way to play out the rest of the season or playoffs?

We searched for silver linings yesterday and found five relative “winners” of a lost NBA season. Today’s list of losers is much, much longer. All of us lose something if the season gets cancelled… but who loses the most?

TIER IV — LOST A LITTLE

San Antonio’s playoff streak

Well I guess that’s one way for it to end. Better at the hands of Coronavirus than DeMar DeRozan virus, I suppose.

Zion Williamson’s final push

It’s hard to remember now, but we were just finally getting Zion after waiting all year. We were robbed of another month of Zion Fever, and Williamson was robbed of his chance to make a huge push for Rookie of the Year down the home stretch, along with a likely Pelicans push for the playoffs.

Grizzlies magic

But hey, who says Zion would’ve stolen Rookie of the Year or even the 8-seed? The Grizzlies had surprised us all year, and Memphis arguably had not one but TWO more deserving ROY candidates in Ja Morant and Brandon Clarke. Memphis was never going to do anything in the playoffs, but it sure would’ve been fun to see them try to steal a game. Growth is not linear — just asked the Kings. We can only hope Memphis will build upon this season’s success.

Vince Carter’s sendoff

One of the lasting memories of our final night of NBA was Vince Carter ostensibly saying goodbye to the game he’s given so much to over four decades. The Hawks realized that fateful Wednesday night would almost certainly be the last with fans this season and put Vince in for a memorable three pointer as fans went wild one final time. That’s nice and all. But we didn’t get to see Carter’s final return to Toronto, and Vinsanity deserves a better sendoff than a quick three. One more year?

Steph Curry was finally back

Sure it had become vogue to hate on the Warriors these recent years, but Steph is just fun, and there’s nothing like him in sports when he gets going. We waited and waited all year and finally got Curry back… for one game. He played only five games all year. It’s never good to lose an entire year of quickly fading prime from one of the game’s all-time greats.

Jayson Tatum’s leap

Since February 3, Tatum was averaging 29.5 points a game on a scorching 47% from behind the arc, making 4.1 per game. Practically overnight, he his game was on par with Paul George and he leapt into the All-NBA conversation and beyond. The playoffs should’ve been Tatum’s chance to take it a step further, maybe even assert his dominance as the best player in the East if he could look Giannis in the eye and take him down. Now we have to wait.

The Morris Twins showdown

No Los Angeles Western Conference Finals means no Morris v Morris. Marcus was on the Clippers, and Markieff had just joined the Lakers. You know that would’ve been good for at least two major beefs, and one of the Marcus twins had a very good chance of winning a ring. Alas.

Portland’s patchwork quilt

The Blazers were banged up and underperformed all year. C.J. McCollum had an off year, Anfernee Simons stunk, and the Blazers couldn’t find the right forwards or get the production they were looking for in their front court, largely because they were missing Zach Collins and Jusuf Nurkic all season. Nurkic was about to return, and Collins may have been back soon after. Dame carried these broken Blazers to within three games of the Grizzlies, and they were my pick to grab the 8-seed. And if you don’t think Dame is dropping 50 in at least one L.A. playoff game, you haven’t been paying attention.

One last healthy Chris Paul playoff run

The Thunder were one of the season’s surprise stories, and the biggest reason for that success was Chris Paul staying healthy. CP3 looks like an All-NBA lock, his first in four years, and he played all but one Thunder game. A healthy OKC would have been a seriously tough out in the West, a threat to win a series or even two. Chris Paul has had so much bad lucky with injuries and timing, and with his huge contract and the direction the Thunder are heading (plus rumors he may be traded to the Knicks), he may not get another real chance at the playoffs. Let’s hope he does.

The Kristaps Porzingis breakout

Porzingis was finally healthy and making the leap. I know, because I was in the middle of writing my first full-length feature for a major publication, set to be published the day after That Wednesday. Sigh. Porzingis had just completed a 13-game stretch averaging 27.7 points, 11 rebounds, 2.4 blocks, and 3.6 threes a game on 40% behind the arc. Dallas suddenly had their two superstars and was quietly becoming the most intriguing playoff team outside of the big three. Young teams need to try and fail in the playoffs. This would have been a super valuable run for Luka and KP.

Victor Oladipo’s future

In 2018, Oladipo was the league’s Most Improved Player, a breakout All-NBA star. The following January, Oladipo ruptured his quad, and he’s lost two full seasons of his prime since. Dipo played only 36 games last season and had just returned to play 13 this spring. And honestly, they were pretty rough. Oladipo finished the year with a -3.0 Box Plus/Minus and shot 39% from the field, looking out of place and without his usual explosion.

March and April were Dipo’s chance to work his way back into shape for a playoff run. Had he looked good, Oladipo would have been a strong candidate to sign a summer extension with only one year left on his deal. Instead, there’s no way it makes sense for Indiana to pay him big money now, and Oladipo could be lost in the shuffle next summer. He’ll turn 29 next season, and he’s really only had one great year. That’s a tough sell at this point.

TIER III — LOST A BUNCH

The race for the West 8-seed

Tied to a bunch of teams mentioned already, like the Pelicans, Spurs Grizzlies, and Blazers, we may never find out who would’ve won the race for the West 8-seed. With most of the awards a fait accompli, that was the last real drama of the season. And let’s be honest — whoever won it was getting smashed by the Lakers in Round One anyway. It’s a bummer but we’ve lost more.

Miami’s perfect chemistry year

The Heat were already fading a bit from earlier this season, but this was still a perfect Miami year. Bam Adebayo made the leap, and no names like Duncan Robinson and Kendrick Nunn made huge contributions. Most importantly, Jimmy Butler set the tone and stayed healthy all year, and he may not have many runs left in that body. Miami probably wasn’t a real contender either way, but this team may only get worse as Butler ages and Bam’s surefire max extension comes soon.

Oklahoma City’s one playoff shot

The Thunder were a fun story, but the team “making” a playoffs they don’t get to compete in is a worst-case scenario. OKC will lose their lottery-protected draft pick because they won so much, and they could have sold off veterans like Danilo Gallinari, Steven Adams, and maybe even Chris Paul. Now they lost that opportunity, and this team may not be back in the playoffs for awhile with a hard reset coming soon.

The Raptors title defense

Was Toronto going to win back-to-back titles? No, probably not. But they might have had a shot at heading back to the Finals, and you never know from there. And really, this is what a title defense is supposed to look like. The Raptors brought the band back (at least the guys they could keep) and fought hard every step of the way. They could’ve traded away Lowry, Gasol, and Ibaka for spare parts at the deadline and instead get nothing for them. This is a bummer of an outcome, and they might even end up having to face Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving if we do come back.

Summer 2020 free agency

Free agency was never going to be too big a deal this summer. Last summer was huge, and 2021 is going to be absolutely insane. This year’s free agency was going to be a dud anyway, and now it will be more dud-ly than ever with so much uncertainty and it being so difficult for players to move and for teams to make big changes.

Players like Gordon Hayward, Andre Drummond, Mike Conley, DeMar DeRozan, and Tim Hardaway Jr. were always likely to pick up player options, but they’re near locks to do so now. The next names up are guys like Paul Millsap, Marc Gasol, and Hassan Whiteside, and it probably makes the most sense for them to stay put too. The most likely scenario is 2020–21 basically just running everything back for the most part.

The Rockets small-ball experiment

It feels like the Houston experiment was already beginning to fail, but at least we had a chance to find out. I loved Houston going all-in on Robert Covington and small ball. Even if it made the Rockets a worse team, it gave them a chance. More threes means more variance and unpredictability, and that means a shot. Worse teams just lose. Unpredictable teams are unpredictable. This team is older than you think, Daryl Morey and Mike D’Antoni could be on their way out, and this was Houston’s one window without the Warriors. This was their shot, even if it was a long one.

Philadelphia finding out if they need to blow this up

Is Philly a winner or a loser? Maybe they win because Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid might not have been healthy enough to give a real playoff run anyway. Maybe they lose because now we definitely don’t know if this weird, wonky, supersized lineup works. Philadelphia wasn’t going to win a title this year, but they badly needed to find out what worked and what didn’t work in the biggest games of the season. Now they have to wait another year.

LeBron James

Before this became the Coronavirus season, it was the Kobe season. If LeBron had a huge closing stretch, he had a chance to steal the MVP and add a fourth ring “for Kobe,” and maybe just maybe, that might have been the final bullet point on his GOAT argument. He’s still LeBron, and he doesn’t need any more bullets so he doesn’t really “lose” per se, but he lost a pretty big opportunity to win. You never know if you get a chance like this again after all those miles.

The city of Los Angeles

Kobe deserved to have this season, and the city of Los Angeles deserved that L.A. showdown in the Western Conference Finals we waited all year for. Staples Centers deserved seven epic games with everything on the line. Los Angeles needed this. It’s not fair.

TIER II — LOST A WHOLE LOT

Players who “signed” max extensions last summer

When guys “sign” max extensions a year before their contract expires, the deal gets reported as something like “Ben Simmons signs 5-year $168-million extension.” But that is a lie. Simmons really signed a max extension that starts at 25% of next year’s salary cap and then increases by a small percentage each year. The actual amount depends on where the salary cap ends up — and that’s not determined until late June, once the league’s finances are in order.

Next year’s cap was supposed to be around $115 million. That would start Simmons around $29 million in the first year of his extension. But with all the political trouble with China in the fall and now the massive Coronavirus revenue lost, what if the cap ends up far, far lower? What if it’s something like $100 million instead? Simmons would drop to $25 million next year, and that 5-year deal ends up being worth around $132 million instead, which means Simmons loses something like $36 million in that scenario. Woof.

Because contracts are fully guaranteed, this only affects a select few players who signed extensions that haven’t actually kicked in yet. Simmons, Jamal Murray, Damian Lillard, Pascal Siakam, and Bradley Beal come to mind. Those six players could lose over $200 million combined if those goes badly.

Everyone loses money if we get no games. The league could lose over $1 billion in revenue, and the players will split much of those loses between them. But those six players in particular could lose a heap in future earnings.

The Milwaukee Bucks lose their best Giannis year

This sure looked like Milwaukee’s year. They were my title pick as the season concluded. The Bucks had an historically good defense and were far and away the best in the East. Milwaukee was by far the most likely team in the NBA to make the Finals. And even if they’d have been an underdog to either Los Angeles team once they got there, that’s four wins away from a title.

Instead, the chance could be gone. That means no possible title run, and it means the clock ticks down to just one Giannis year remaining before free agency. No chance to win a title and convince him to stay, and just as bad, no shot to come up short and see what they were missing with one final chance to reload. Now they’re all in on one last chance to impress Antetokounmpo next year. If things go awry, the entire future of the franchise is at stake.

The Los Angeles Clippers have one bullet left

Even with Milwaukee losing so much, I still think the Clippers are the NBA’s biggest loser. Don’t forget how much the Clips sacrificed to get Kawhi and PG. They gave up everything for those two, basically every pick they could trade along with budding star Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. And it was worth it! But they gave all that for a single two-year window, since that’s all the longer Leonard and George are signed.

If this season is gone, that window just got cut in half. Now this forlorn franchise is all-in on a single, final window. They still have no idea if this full roster even works together, and they certainly don’t know if it works in the playoffs, and now they won’t be able to adjust until the window has closed.

The Clippers gave everything they had, and now they’re down to a single bullet left in the chamber. *gulp*

TIER I — THE BIGGEST LOSER

Fans, team staff, arena workers, sports writers, local bars, etc

No need to dwell on the obvious, but the biggest losers here are all of the rest of us tangential to the NBA.

So many team and arena staff are without work. So many sports writers and media have been laid off. So many local bars and area city life have been hit hard. Jobs have been lost. Billions of dollars are gone, never to return.

And we the fans have lost our basketball. We’ve lost two months of playoffs every night, two months of podium games and playoff heroes and social media craziness. We all lose here.

We miss you, basketball, and we love you.

Come back soon. ❤

Follow Brandon on Medium or @wheatonbrando for more sports, television, humor, and culture. Visit the rest of Brandon’s writing archives here.