American Horror

Let me make a prediction

I’ve been keeping track of America’s Covid-19 infection, ever since Don Trump claimed that there were only 15 cases, and they were getting better under his wise leadership.

In five days’ time, America’s number of Covid-19 cases will pass China, and there will be 1 000 dead from the disease.

Obviously, these are numbers I would prefer not to see come to pass, but neither am I seeing any unified action to prevent them. In fact, I would say that there is nothing that can be done to stop my prediction coming true, because those who will be showing symptoms in five days are most likely already infected, and the death rate I’ve assumed is pretty conservative.

Only in the last day or so have some American states taken the minimum action of requiring all but essential workers to self-isolate. That will take some time to implement and police to the standard required, and it is not a national action. Most Americans are still free to go about their business as if there is no contagion around, and thousands will pay the price.

Here are the numbers

Wikipedia is providing an impressive coverage of the pandemic. The global article here is full of information and area by area totals. Some graphs give direct comparisons, but as the disease spreads and grows, graphs quickly become out of date and need redrafting.

The American article is a “drill-down”, and has a truly terrifying graphical representation of the spread. The total infected as I write these words is more than 20 000, and that number is doubling every 2.3 days. China has 81 000 cases and is reporting no new cases (apart from the limited number of Chinese arriving from elsewhere and being tested on arrival).

In 2.3 days, America will have over 40 000 cases, and another 2.3 days later, that number will double again to over 80 000. If anything, I’m being conservative. The rate of infection has soared over the past few days.

The death rate seems to be declining from initial predictions, but even at just over 1%, that figure of a thousand dead is only a few days away. Looking at the numbers, the fatality totals are doubling every two days or so in line with the total number of infections.

Why I’m gloomy

Yes, America is taking action, people are beginning to quarantine themselves, the initial sense of complacency — thank you Don Trump — is evaporating, and the figures should be falling.

Maybe they will, but I’m not seeing it yet. On the contrary.

Forget Trump and his chaotic opinions on what Americans should do. He’s a good part of the reason why things are so dire.

Even if he were giving out good and timely advice, the population dynamics do not lend themselves to following the advice.

America has a great number of people who have few if any reserves. They live from base wage paycheck to paycheck. Sometimes coming in on a monthly basis. Access to reliable health care or sick leave is sparse.

Unless physically prevented, people are going to keep on working until their workplaces close, because they need the money, and they are going to work even if they feel a little under the weather. Maybe it’s just a cold or the regular flu coming on.

Whatever, a lot of Americans will be out and about spreading infection, because they simply cannot afford to do anything else.

Beyond that, when they do present themselves for treatment, the local medical facilities are going to quickly become swamped. We’ve seen it happen elsewhere. A few patients are able to be treated, but when the number doubles every few days, there comes a point when no more can be accepted.

And it’s not as if America’s local hospitals are sprawling establishments stocked with all the supplies required for an epidemic and wards full of empty beds. I’m guessing that for most small towns, an extra half dozen patients per day would push them over the edge in short order.

Let’s keep track

Bear in mind, I’d like it best of all if everything went down to zero, nobody got sick or died, and we could all live in health, harmony and happiness.

May all be happy; May all be without disease; May all have well-being; May none have misery of any sort. — Bṛhadāraṇyaka Upanishad 1.4.14

Britni

Britni Pepper writes for Kindle Direct Publishing. She runs a blog where she reviews erotica, and rambles on about this and that. She may be reached on Twitter and Facebook.

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