The 2019 Opening Day NFL Quarterback Rankings

Let’s rank all 32 NFL starters, from mAhomes to fitZpatrick…

NO POSITION IN ALL OF SPORTS IS MORE IMPORTANT THAN QUARTERBACK. The 2019 NFL season is off and running, and while so much has changed, much remains the same, as 25 of last year’s 32 Opening Day quarterbacks begin the year as starter again. No player can make or break their team quite as much as a quarterback.

I was pretty optimistic on Patrick Mahomes heading into last season. I even ranked him #15 to start the year and thought I was being pretty generous. Had him right behind Tyrod Taylor. Oops. Quarterbacks can rise and fall quickly, though the names at the very top have been there for years.

I did this year’s rankings before Opening Day and I’m sticking with my order regardless of Week 1 recency bias. The premise is simple enough. There are 32 Opening Day NFL starters. Let’s rank them 32 to 1 on which guy you’d want leading your team this season.

If you’re curious, here were my rankings last year on Opening Day, and here’s the stretch run update I posted in late November…

TIER XI — THERE’S ALWAYS NEXT YEAR

32. Jacoby Brissett, Indianapolis (Ranking last November: NR) 31. Ryan Fitzpatrick, Miami (NR)

Only a Harvard graduate would get this many second and third chances. How is Ryan Fitzpatrick still starting NFL games? Do you realize this guy has made 126 career starts? He is top 10 among active players with 29,357 yards passing. How did we let Ryan Fitzpatrick throw for 29 thousand yards?

FitzMagic has 10 seasons with 7+ starts and only one winning season. Fitzpatrick is top 50 all time in passing yards. How?! He has more career yards than Terry Bradshaw, Ken Stabler, Bart Starr, and Joe Namath. Sad.

There’s a lot of Ewing Theory talk around the Colts, and it just doesn’t make much sense. No position in sports is more important than quarterback, and you don’t just replace a top-10 guy on track for the Hall of Fame and with a career backup and call it even.

Many have decided Jacoby Brissett is good, and maybe he needs a chance with a better roster, but we have zero numbers to believe he’s any good. Brissett went 4–11 just two years ago with these Colts when Andrew Luck was sidelined, and it’s like we already forgot. He’s under 60% completion rate for his career all almost all of his metrics are awful. His 2.5% TD rate is absurdly low, his 9.9% sack rate atrocious, and his 5.4 net yards per attempt brutal. Maybe Jacoby Brissett will be good this year. It’ll have to be a surprise.

TIER X — IF YOU DON’T BELIEVE, YOU DON’T BELIEVE

30. Josh Allen, Buffalo (30) 29. Mitch Trubisky, Chicago (19) 28. Jameis Winston, Tampa Bay (28)

I just don’t see an NFL quarterback when I watch Josh Allen. He doesn’t progress through his reads well, and his eyes turn south to run at the first sign of pressure. Allen takes a lot of sacks, throws a ton of interceptions, and barely completes 50% of his passes. And sure, he can run the football some. Hooray. So could Tim Tebow, and his numbers were remarkably similar to Allen’s. Allen is too young to write off, but he’s gonna have to show me something.

I live in Chicago, and there was a distinct look in the eyes of Chicagoans as you walked around Friday. It was a knowing look: it’s not happening this year. Not with Mitch Trubisky. Trubisky’s numbers were not as bad as you think last year, but they weren’t good either. He can make some plays on the move and usually finds one good drive a half, but that just doesn’t cut it for a team with a Super Bowl defense and an Idaho Potatoes Bowl quarterback.

I already regret ranking Winston too high. Is it possible to rank a starting QB lower than 32? Cuz Jameis is making a case. Winston is a walking turnover machine. He entered Week 1 with a 3% interception rate for his career (that’s bad), then threw three interceptions to a team that had only two picks all last season (that’s worse), two of which were pick-6s (that’s awful).

I put up a Twitter poll after the Bears game asking voters who they’d want at quarterback for this season: Trubisky, Allen, or Winston. Jameis technically won the saddest vote since 2016, but the real leader was the huge number of write-in Barney Stinson GIFs.

TIER IX — THE GAME MANAGERS

27. Eli Manning, New York Giants (24) 26. Case Keenum, Washington (23) 25. Andy Dalton, Cincinnati (NR) 24. Joe Flacco, Denver (NR) 23. Nick Foles, Jacksonville (NR)

No one has anything interesting to say about any of these guys. If you threw all five quarterbacks in a barrel, shook them up, and randomly assigned them to those five teams, would anyone even care? They’d all still have the same record, and Nick “Mr. Glass” Foles would have broken his collarbone either way.

Eli Manning is terrible and always has been outside of a few playoff games. Eli’s only two skills are staying healthy and having a good last name. His career 60% completion rate is terrible, and so is his 3% interception rate. Bring on Daniel Jones.

Everyone else in this section is whatever. Case Keenum gave me one of the greatest sports moments of my life and also one of my worst. Joe Flacco and Nick Foles had their moments. Andy Dalton has never given anyone any moments ever.

TIER VIII — THE KNOWNS

22. Derek Carr, Oakland (22) 21. Matthew Stafford, Detroit (15) 20. Marcus Mariota, Tennessee (18)

You probably think one of these guys is way too low and that another is way too high, and the thing is, you think that about different guys than the next person to read this column. Some quarterbacks are just fine.

Matt Stafford is the finiest of fines. He is the NFL’s version of Joe Johnson. Stafford had seven straight 4000-yard seasons until last year but he’s basically just a volume play. His YPA and TD% and all the other metrics are somewhere between meh and *shrug*. I’m sorry, but Matt Stafford is not a Hall of Famer, and he’s honestly just not that good.

If you had to name all the starting quarterbacks, Derek Carr would be one of your last five, I promise. One underrated terrible thing about all three of these guys is they take a ton of sacks, constantly hurting their team in that area.

If I had to have one of the three, I still believe in Marcus Mariota as like a homeless man’s version of Russell Wilson who steps it up with the game on the line. Maybe this will be the year he stays healthy and finally finds the right system. Not likely.

TIER VII — THE UNKNOWNS

19. Jimmy Garoppolo, San Francisco (NR) 18. Kyler Murray, Arizona (NR) 17. Sam Darnold, New York Jets (25) 16. Lamar Jackson, Baltimore (21)

I know you think that last group should be ahead of these four, but sometimes it’s better to not know just yet and cling to a little hope.

I’m open to moving Garoppolo down to the next group, so it works well that he’s right on the edge between them. Are we totally sure Jimmy G is good and not just handsome? Garoppolo has a surprisingly high number of sacks and turnovers, and some of the positives might just be attributed to Kyle Shanahan. Are we even Garoppolo is the best 49ers quarterback? His numbers are nearly identical to Nick Mullens. Just wait: Mullens will get a shot sometime this year.

It’s probably crazy putting Kyler Murray in the top 20 already, but when you complete 70% of your passes at Oklahoma with an 11.9 YPA and under 2% interception rate and then add 1000 yards and 55 TDs, I’m willing to give you the benefit of the doubt. Those are real numbers.

Everyone’s betting on Sam Darnold to make the big sophomore leap, and I like him, but my bet has been on Lamar Jackson. Jackson is now 7–2 as an NFL starter, and his only regular season loss was at Kansas City by three points. Jackson had a 7.0 YPA and only three interceptions as a rookie, a rare caretaker at his age. Oh, and he also paced to 1271 yards and 9 TDs on the ground.

But forget the running — Lamar Jackson is just a good quarterback. He was a big part of the reason I picked the Ravens as my big sleeper this year. I think they’ll win because of him, and not in spite of him, and if you watched Jackson throw all over the Dolphins, now you know why.

HALFTIME BREAK

Did you miss my 2019 NFL preview? Here’s a full breakdown of every team…

TIER VI — DEPENDS ON THE SITUATION

15. Dak Prescott, Dallas (17) 14. Jared Goff, Los Angeles Rams (9) 13. Kirk Cousins, Minnesota (11) 12. Matt Ryan, Atlanta (8)

This section of quarterbacks is mostly good with the potential to be great if everything around them is in place.

For Matt Ryan, that meant an MVP season one year, though his numbers are a lot more average than you think otherwise. Ryan averages 27 TDs and 12 picks a season and eats a ton of sacks. He’s definitely good, but I had Ryan about five spots higher before I really looked at the numbers.

Yes, Kirk before Goff. I’m convinced the Vikings would be worse with Goff, and I don’t see any reason to think the Rams wouldn’t be better with Cousins. Cousins is #2 all time in career completion percentage behind Drew Brees. He is an excellent quarterback when he can stand in his pocket and make reads, but he doesn’t handle pressure well and he simply won’t improvise. There’s a ceiling on Cousins, but it’s a pretty good one.

Goff has averaged 30 TDs and 10 interceptions the last two years with an impressive 8.2 YPA, but I’m giving Sean McVay most of that credit. When the going gets tough, Goff melts. In four playoff games, he’s completed only 55% of his passes with just two TDs. That’s the guy McVay is marrying himself to for $110 million guaranteed? It’s like limiting Picasso to a box of crayons.

Rayne Dakota Prescott is a good NFL quarterback. I was pretty shocked when he came out top 15 in my rankings, but I stand by it, and his 400 yards and 4 TDs sure looked pretty good in Week 1. All of Prescott’s measurables are pretty impressive outside of his sack numbers. Otherwise 66% completion, 7.5 YPA, and 1.7% interception are all impressive. Of course he’s had the league’s best line and run game too, but you play the hand your dealt. And you know what? I’m not sure Dallas would be better if they could swap Dak Prescott for anyone else in this tier. Pay dat man hees money.

TIER V — THE ENIGMA

11. Cam Newton, Carolina (7)

Cam Newton is the NFL version of Russell Westbrook.

I don’t know how I never thought of this before. It couldn’t be more obvious. Cam and Russ are the ultimate floor raisers. If they’re healthy, they’re putting up monster numbers and leading your team to the playoffs, but what’s the ceiling once you get there? The one man show is a heck of a ride, but you sure are sick when you get off.

Are you into efficiency metrics? Newton and Westbrook fans aren’t. They’re bigger than the numbers, which is good cuz Cam’s under 60% completions for his career with a poor interception rate. If you took away the rushing stats (aka the rebounding numbers), what would you think of Newton?

Just let that one marinate. It’s my best analogy in awhile.

TIER IV — WE GOT NEXT

10. Baker Mayfield, Cleveland (16) 9. Carson Wentz, Philadelphia (12) 8. Deshaun Watson, Houston (14)

I promise this is the order I had them in before the weekend.

If you had to pick one of these three quarterbacks for the next decade, who would you pick? It’s one of the more fascinating debates in football right now, and the numbers are actually quite close. Any of these three guys could be in among the top five QBs in football in a couple years. They might all be.

Mayfield has been the losingest quarterback of the three so far, though it’s hard to blame the Browns all on him. He set a rookie record with 27 TDs and was 6th among rookies all time in yardage and 8th in completion percentage. Seems pretty good. Every metric in college suggested Baker would be good too. This is no surprise, and remember, almost every quarterback takes a significant sophomore leap.

I’m biased on Carson Wentz since he’s a hometown hero I’ve followed for years, but you watch a healthy Wentz scramble and invent plays on the move and it just feels like Aaron Rodgers. Wentz had a rough rookie year before exploding as a sophomore MVP candidate, then was up and down playing through multiple injuries last year. Those injuries have obscured just how good Wentz has been. He paces to 4250 yards, 36 TDs, and 9 interceptions over the past two seasons, and he wasn’t even healthy. Hopefully he is now.

It’s easy to forget now, but Deshaun Watson also played through a torn ACL recovery last year. I did not expect Watson to rank quite this high but he might actually be too low. His numbers are clearly the best of these three, despite playing with no offensive line for his entire career. Watson has a monster YPA, over 8.2 both his seasons, and his huge 6.3% TD rate is paralleled only by Aaron Rodgers. Watson had five fourth quarter comebacks last year and just about had another in New Orleans to kick off the new season. Imagine how good he’ll be if we ever get him some help.

TIER III — THE OLD GUARD

7. Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh (10) 6. Philip Rivers, Los Angeles Chargers (6) 5. Drew Brees, New Orleans (2) 4. Tom Brady, New England (13)

Fun fact: the combined ages of these quarterbacks is 593.

Does age even matter in football anymore? We’ve been waiting for these four to show their age for at least half a decade now, but it just hasn’t happened.

Big Ben always feels closest. He led the league in interceptions last year and has thrown 13 picks four straight seasons. There are also the terrible road splits and the inevitable random losses to bad teams a couple times a year. Then again, there are the wins. In 15 seasons, Roethlisberger has only one season under .500 — and he went 7–8 that year. Big Ben averages 10.7 wins a season, but he always feels one hit or bad game away from finally fading.

You know how everyone secretly wonders if Matt Stafford is a Hall of Fame QB right before our eyes? They’re thinking of Philip Rivers. Rivers has never had that one monster MVP year but he’s thrown for 4286 yards six straight seasons and always seems to have the Chargers playing well late in the season. He’s also never missed a game in his career. But would you believe last year was Rivers’s first 10-win season in a decade? We’ll see if he can do it back to back.

Drew Brees set the season-long completion percentage record in 2017 at 72%, then broke it last year at 74.4%. He completes three of every four passes. Brees could have spiked the ball 19 times in a row to end the season and still set the all-time record. Brees is now at 67.3% lifetime, #1 on the career list — and rising. He has four of the top five completion percentage seasons of all time. Last year was the first time Brees went under 4000 passing yards since 2005. He missed it by eight yards. Guys, Drew Brees is incredible.

And so is Tom Brady. Feel free to put Brees or Brady atop your rankings. I won’t stop you. Brady’s numbers have quietly faded a bit the last three years, but we’ll see if Antonio Brown and Josh Gordon can help that. Brady has never won fewer than 9 games in 17 years as a starter. He averages 12 wins a season… in his playoff career. Brady is 30–10 lifetime in the playoffs, which literally comes out to 12–4 over a 16-game playoff sample. That’s just off his regular season 12.4-win pace. Good grief.

TIER II — THE FORMER NUMBER ONES

3. Russell Wilson, Seattle (3) 2. Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay (1)

I’ve been doing this quarterback power rankings for a few years now, and only these two have ever held the #1 spot on the board. Until now.

Russell Wilson has never won fewer than nine games. He’s thrown 34 TDs in three of the last four seasons despite the fact that Seattle literally handcuffs him to the run-heaviest offense in the league. Wilson ranked only 20th in passing attempts last season, and it is criminal the way Seattle limits what Wilson can do. But that also makes it all the more beautiful when they finally let him cook. With the game on the line, I’m not sure there’s any QB I’d rather have.

It feels like we are due for another monster Aaron Rodgers season, just to remind us of how much better he is than almost every other human being at football. I know you think Rodgers faded a bit last year, but he threw 25 TDs and only TWO interceptions, that despite a 6–9–1 record with no help around him. It was the first time in his career Rodgers went back-to-back seasons without a playoff win. He’s a touchdown monster with a career 6.2% TD rate and four seasons of 38+ TDs. It looks like he might have finally gotten a little help this year too. Look out, NFL.

TIER I — THE NEW KING

1. Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City (4)

Mahomes had 5000 yards and 50 TDs his first season as a starter with an 8.8 YPA, and the scary thing is he played even better with his back against the wall. He might have been better than ever in the opener against Jacksonville.

Any questions? ■

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