2019 NBA Draft — Ranking the Power Forwards

It’s Zion Williamson and Brandon Clarke alone at the top. Does anyone else even come close to measuring up?

POWER FORWARD IS AN OUTDATED TERM IN THE MODERN NBA. We still use the term, but how many guys really fit the traditional position in 2019? Oldies but goodies like Paul Millsap and Thaddeus Young still seem like classic power forwards. Pascal Siakam is an up-and-comer. But these days the “power forward” position is mostly populated by big men who don’t play defense (John Collins, Lauri Markkanen, Marvin Bagley) or by wings playing up a position (Danilo Gallinari, Tobias Harris, Rudy Gay). LeBron and Giannis are technically fours now, and other fours like Draymond Green and P.J. Tucker are most valuable playing small-ball center.

So what exactly is a modern NBA four? It’s a lot of things, and it’s nothing. There is no such thing as a modern NBA four. The modern four is whatever a team needs at the moment. Some teams need scoring punch next to a defensive center. Others need a low-usage role player to play defense, others a shooter that can space the floor. Guys that can do all of those things? Well, they’re probably not fours. They’re either quick enough to play the three or big enough to play center full-time. The modern NBA four is a catch-all position, a half-wing-half-big where tweeners are now king.

Is Zion Williamson a four? It’s probably where he’ll be announced in the starting lineup, but who really cares once he’s on the floor? Is Brandon Clarke a four? Whatever he is, he’s awesome. In the modern NBA, the most valuable fours are guys that bring versatility and options, that are good enough to stay on the court and play in a variety of roles. Let’s keep that in mind as we take a look at the nine best “power forward” prospects in the 2019 NBA Draft.

If you’ve missed them, check out my other positions rankings below…

TIER I — THE FRANCHISE CHANGER

1. Zion Williamson, Duke

Profile

If you’re reading this and don’t already know Zion Williamson, get out now before the next 5000 words.

Scouting analysis

Zion is one of the best prospects to ever enter the NBA, and he might be the best athlete in the NBA from day one. He might be the best offensive and defensive prospect in the draft. He changes everything for the Pelicans.

NBA expectations

I’ll be shocked if Zion isn’t on multiple All-NBA teams, and he could be a future MVP. We’ll all be looking for the next Zion before too long.

Best team fits

New Orleans won the lottery: Zion is already a top-10 NBA asset.

TIER II — MY GUY

2. Brandon Clarke, Gonzaga

Profile

Brandon Clarke played two years at San Jose State, then sat out a year transferring before exploding onto the scene with Gonzaga. He had one of the most efficient college seasons in recent history — he just did it for a small school in the same year that Zion was even better. Clarke put up 17 and 9 on 69% from the field with 1.2 steals and 3.2 blocks a game. He was so productive he actually had more blocks and more offensive rebounds than he had shots missed, and he was one of the best defenders in the nation.

Scouting analysis

The problem: Clarke plays like a big man but is only 6'8" with a 6'8" wingspan, and he’ll be 23 when the season starts. I get it, but I also see elite athleticism, incredible production and efficiency, awesome defense, and out of this world instincts and feel for the game. Clarke is #2 on my entire board and you should read my full, extensive breakdown of his prospects here.

NBA expectations

Again, read my full breakdown. I think Clarke can be a star, an All Defense guy with Defensive Player of the Year potential.

Best team fits

There are few fits in the draft I love more than Brandon Clarke to Minnesota. Clarke fits ideally as a four next to a stud offense-first center like Karl-Anthony Towns, where KAT can space the offense and absorb big-bodied centers on defense allowing Clarke to freelance and do all the defensive stuff that makes him special. That works just as well next to Nikola Jokic in Denver or Deandre Ayton in Phoenix. If Clarke slips out of the lottery, I like him in Philadelphia, where there’s plenty of length to cover him. And heaven help us if we somehow let him fall to Golden State.

TIER III — THE COMBO BIGS

3. P.J. Washington, Kentucky

Profile

P.J. Washington is the rare Kentucky player who came back for a sophomore season. He made the right choice. Washington began the year slowly but broke out in conference play and stepped forward as one of the best players in the nation, averaging 21 points and 8 boards during a dominant 10-game stretch. Washington has a big, long frame and dominated opponents inside. He can really shoot and is a surprising passer and able defender, an NBA-ready guy that can slot into any rotation.

Scouting analysis

Washington took off in conference play as he moved into a role that kept him nearer the rim and got more consistent touches that kept him engaged. He looks like a modern four that can do a bit of everything. He can score with his back to the basket or beat guys facing up, and he stepped out and hit 42% of his 78 threes this year too.

Washington looked like a man among boys, the clear best player on the court in many games, and he could take over for stretches and dominate even against good teams like Tennessee and Auburn. It honestly felt like he was a senior college star, but it’s easy to forget he’s still only 20 and it’s just his game that was that mature. Washington loves going to his left shoulder in the post, and he can put the ball on the floor and get to the rim and score. According to The Stepien, he hit 65% of his shots at the rim, 50% of his long twos, and 45% of his NBA threes. He really has a complete offensive package as a four.

Defensively, Washington has a lot of potential with a huge frame and reach and gigantic hands. He averaged two stocks a game and is strong enough to defend the post and long enough to get out and contest. His defense and recovery ability really stood out in the NCAA tournament. Washington has a good feel for the game and is impactful even when he’s not scoring. He flashes some real passing potential, too.

Washington is good at all these things but might not be great at any of them, a jack of all trades, master of none. His athleticism fits there too. He has a huge frame but feels like more of a college athlete than an NBA one. He projects as a player with versatility and a nice floor but lacks star upside as a pro.

NBA expectations

I’ve seen some scouts call Washington a potential wing, but I don’t see it. He seems like a classic modern four to me, with the potential to guard three to five with his frame and strength and a possible small-ball center. Something like Marvin Williams or Patrick Patterson feels like a reasonable outcome, with a modern David West a high-end fit.

Washington will likely be a role player again, and I wonder what his motor and effort will look like when he’s not getting as many touches. There’s a lot of pieces that add up to a nice glue guy 3+D type four, but only if P.J. stays engaged and embraces that role.

Best team fits

Washington is a versatile four with an expansive tool set, a guy who can step into minutes right away. That makes him a fit for any team that can use a role-playing four. Minnesota or Charlotte make the most sense in the lottery, or Phoenix on a trade down. Later in the first, teams like Denver, Philly, Portland, OKC, and San Antonio all make sense. The truth is that Washington can be a positive addition to most teams, and that’s a big part of his value.

4. Isaiah Roby, Nebraska

Profile

Isaiah Roby is a player I’ve been higher than consensus on all season. He’s one of my favorite sleepers, an overlooked player because he toiled out of position all year for a terrible Nebraska team. Roby is a really skilled big man with outstanding size and freakish athleticism and a highlight reel of jaw-dropping dunks and blocks. A 6'2" guard in high school, Roby is now 6'8" and 214 pounds with an 8'10" reach, so he’s a big man with some guard skills.

Scouting analysis

Roby played center for Nebraska out of necessity since they didn’t have anyone else with size, but I think he’s a four in the NBA. His playing out of position means a lot of this is a projection, and that’s why I think people are missing out on him. Roby played in the rugged Big 10 and was constantly matched up against big, physical centers. At times against teams like Michigan State, that meant Roby got bodied off the boards and got into foul trouble in defense, not making much of an impact. But he impressed in other games when he could use his quickness and athleticism to offset the size difference.

One such matchup was Maryland, where I somehow watched three Roby games against future NBA big men Bruno Fernando and Jalen Smith and was really impressed how he held his own, especially on the boards. The first 10 minutes of his second game against Maryland was his best stretch of the season, in part because he was so aggressive. He scored off the dribble, hit a jumper, and finished through Fernando. He missed a shot but got back in transition for a chase-down block, and another time he grabbed a rebound and drove the full length of the court for a dunk through traffic.

For flashes like that, Roby looks like the whole package as a modern four. And then he’ll go MIA for stretches or start missing jumpers and floating on the perimeter. And it’s that inconsistent effort that can drive you mad. Roby sets lots of nothing screens and needs more effort boxing out on rebounds instead of just waiting for the ball to come to him. He makes flash defensive plays with his length, averaging 3.2 stocks a game, but is an inconsistent team defender overall, especially when he was frequently in foul trouble. Roby is thin and will need to add strength so he doesn’t get pushed around so much, and he’s already 21 so his body may not improve a ton. He needs the strength for conditioning and endurance as much as anything, and he has to cut down on the fouls and stay on the court.

Offensively, Roby has a lot of guard skills. He’s a really good dribbler for his size and can definitely grab and go, and he’s really good attacking from the perimeter or high post, using his quickness advantage. Roby is an elite athlete, combining his outstanding length with speed, agility, and a quick, gigantic leap. Roby looks comfortable shooting, but the numbers are not impressed. He made only 34% of his 146 threes over three seasons and shot 70% at the line, and his inconsistent shooting took him into and out of games. When Roby is engaged and hitting shots, he looks like a lottery pick. When he’s missing and lapsing mentally, you barely notice him.

NBA expectations

Roby makes freakish athletic plays every game and he has a ton of potential. His inconsistency is ultimately what holds him back, both the shot and the mental side of the game where he’s indecisive and often shows more ability and talent than instincts.

Still, I wonder what it might have looked like if Roby had swapped spots with P.J. Washington this season. Couldn’t Roby have starred with more help around him, and wouldn’t Washington have floundered similarly with Nebraska? P.J. is a much better shooter, but I’m certain that’s boosted by his team getting him better looks too. Roby seems like a great consolation prize for teams that miss out on the top fours, and he’ll come much cheaper.

Best team fits

Roby feels like a good fit in the modern, position-less NBA. I can see him playing three to five at times, and he certainly has the tools to guard all three positions. He’s a nice upside gamble for any team that needs a four, so all the P.J. Washington teams fit: Minnesota, Charlotte, Phoenix, Denver, Philly, Portland, OKC, San Antonio, and I’m sure a few others.

TIER IV — LET SOMEONE ELSE TAKE THEM

5. Rui Hachimura, Gonzaga

Profile

Rui Hachimura was wrongly understood to be the star of a Gonzaga team where he wasn’t even the best big man. He’s a go-to scorer, putting up 20ppg this year en route to an Elite 8 run, with a wide array of offensive skill moves and ways to put the ball in the hoop. Hachimura has a wide frame and a huge reach, and he plays with a ton of emotion and spirit. He improved by leaps and bounds in three years at Gonzaga and looks certain to be the first ever Japanese player taken in the first round of the NBA Draft.

Scouting analysis

Hachimura is a dominant, efficient scorer, a combo forward that can do a bit of everything in attack. He’s extremely comfortable with his pull-up jumper and takes a lot of long twos, hitting an excellent 48% of them. Hachimura shot 71% at the rim and hit 42% of his threes, though only 15 makes. His game expanded greatly each year at Gonzaga, so he should eventually expand his range beyond the arc. Hachimura is a cold-blooded scorer. He has a soft touch and is comfortable shooting on the move or off a catch, exuding confidence in his game. He always plays like he thinks he’s the best guy on the court, for better or, often, for worse. He ranked in the top 10 percentile scoring in spot-ups and as a roll man. He’s going to be able to score in the NBA.

The question is how much else he’ll be able to do. Despite Hachimura’s huge size at 6'8" with a 7'2" wingspan, he averaged just 6.5 rebounds with under a block and a steal per game, and he had only 81 assists in three seasons. He looks very comfortable with the ball in his hands and shows some impressive passing acumen at times, but if you watch him enough, you start to see a lot of the same moves over and over again, and a lot of his scoring relies on his size advantage. His dribble needs work, and he is over reliant on a go-to spin move. That size won’t be an advantage anymore in the NBA, especially since he’s going to have to play the four, and he’s not going to be a primary scorer.

Hachimura is not a good defender. He’s slow on his feet and slow processing decisions, and I don’t like his instincts or positioning. It’s telling that Gonzaga’s defense held them back, despite Brandon Clarke’s presence as maybe the best defender in the nation. Hachimura loses his guy off ball and can’t stay in front of quicker players on the perimeter, and he doesn’t play physical enough. He’s not a high-end athlete, with little pop to just go make a play. He had an especially rough end of the season, getting into foul trouble in multiple March Madness games as Gonzaga often looked better with Clarke and Killian Tillie out there. He cost Gonzaga the game against Texas Tech trying to do too much against an elite defense, turning it over repeatedly with a loose dribble and weak hands, getting lost on D, and demanding the ball for far too many record-scratch possessions that ended in disaster. I genuinely believe Gonzaga would be champions right now if Mark Few would have ever realized Brandon Clarke was his best big man and not Hachimura.

NBA expectations

Hachimura is an efficient scorer and a high character guy with a great work ethic, someone who improved a lot three straight seasons and showed visible improvement throughout this season. His head-down dribble improved, and he took big steps forward as a passer. He doubled his sophomore assist total and tripled his threes. Still, right now Hachimura is a scoring forward and that’s it. The team drafting him will be betting on his continued improvement as he continues to learn the game.

Hachimura is a scoring forward in the mold of Jabari Parker or T.J. Warren. That’s not super valuable in the modern NBA, but Warren got more valuable this year as he started to hit threes. If Hachimura adds a three or continues to improve as a passer or in defense, he can be a good NBA player. For now, he’s a great college scorer that baseball scouts call a AAAA guy, too good for the minor leagues but not quite a pro. On a good team, he’s nothing more than a bench scoring forward right now.

Best team fits

Hachimura fits best on a team that needs some scoring punch at forward and has defensive help elsewhere. He fits well with Charlotte, Detroit, or Miami, all fortuitously drafting in the 12-to-15 range where he’s projected, or he’d work in OKC or Portland later. I kind of like him next to Anthony Davis on a new team too, with Davis in a supercharged Brandon Clarke role next to him.

6. Sekou Doumbouya, France

Profile

Sekou Doumbouya is the youngest player in the draft, and he’s been the top international prospect on most boards throughout the draft process, a presumed lottery pick. Doumbouya is long and strong at 6'9" and 230 pounds and might still be growing. He’s still learning the game mentally but has a big frame and projects to be a menace defensively on the wing if he can figure everything out. International prospects are harder to scout because there’s just less film available, but suffice to say he is not exactly my top international.

Scouting analysis

Doumbouya is first and foremost a bet on his age and body. He’s so raw that you can almost imagine him to be anything. Sekou is a fluid athlete but not a great one. He lacks burst and is a bit slow laterally and not an explosive leaper. He’s certainly an NBA athlete, just athleticism won’t be his calling card.

Defense is supposed to be Doumbouya’s calling card. He calls Tony Allen his idol, and you can see the potential. He’s already strong enough to guard multiple positions and looks like a switch defender, but I don’t love his instincts. Sekou seems a half step slow in defense, using all that length to recover instead of attack, and he seems better as a big using his length to defend in space than as a point-of-attack defender on the ball.

Offensively, Doumbouya is a long ways away. He has a very poor handle and gives up his dribble easily and is mostly one-handed. He’s a decent finisher but needs some work there, and he’s improving in his ability to create his shot but still needs work. The shot itself literally made me gasp the first time I saw it on its way back down from the moon with an insane arc. It’s not working. He’s made under 30% of his threes and only 66% from the line with an evolving shot form. The passing seems raw and indecisive.

And it’s that mental side that really kills my interest in Doumbouya. It just doesn’t seem like he “gets it” out there. Sekou is so raw and seems slow processing things on both ends of the court. I put so much stock into the mental side because it adds or takes away like 20% to everything else, and I just can’t shake the feeling that the natural feel isn’t there for Doumbouya. I’m cautious on international players because I know so little, and Sekou reminds me of Frank Ntilikina, another French player we all decided we liked because of his youth and his frame and defensive potential. We ignored the fact that Ntilikina doesn’t actually know how to play basketball.

NBA expectations

Doumbouya feels like an ideal draft and stash in the second round, but he’ll never even come close to falling that far. Most reports have him as a clear lottery guy and likely top-10 pick, and I just can’t get there. Doumbouya is almost completely a bet on his age and body. His lack of polish and feel for the game make me feel like he’s a long term project and a likely second contract guy. Even in a weak draft, I can’t use a lottery pick on that sort of investment.

Doumbouya says he models his game after Paul George, and he’s similar to him physically. Because of his strength and frame, he feels like a four to me, closer to a small ball center than a true wing. Maybe Sekou is a bigger OG Anunoby or a thicker Pascal Siakam. He’s not, but he sure is lucky those guys are playing in the Finals, cuz they’re about to make him a lot of money.

Best team fits

Doumbouya projects as a low-usage defensive forward, and he’s going to take awhile to develop. The ideal team is a few years away and has high-usage scorers that need help on defense. It kills me because they’re my two favorite teams and I’ll be furious if they use a lottery pick on him, but both Minnesota and Chicago fit the bill. Washington or Atlanta fit the timeline in that they’re not ready yet. I like Sekou a lot better with one of the later Boston picks. But I’d like him most in the second round and staying overseas for a year.

TIER V — THE SECOND ROUND TARGETS

7. Jalen McDaniels, San Diego State

Profile

Jalen McDaniels is an older, small school prospect, playing for a bad San Diego St. team in the Mountain West. He’s super long but rail thin at 6'10" and 191 pounds wet. He likes to play with the ball in his hands and loves to attack from the wing or facing up in the high post, and he exploded in conference play this year with a slew of 20/10 games and can make flashy athletic defensive plays with his length and leaping ability.

Scouting analysis

McDaniels was tough to get a feel for because his game is predicated so much on his athletic and size advantages, and those advantages disappeared against better opponents, even conference foes like Nevada or Utah State. McDaniels was effectively playing center much of the time for the Aztecs. He played like LaMarcus Aldridge, with an array of mid-range moves and constant tip-ins and rebounds playing around the rim. That’s all fine and good and it made McDaniels look really good at times, but none of it will translate to the NBA.

I really worry about McDaniels physically at the next level. His body is so thin and frail, and he had terrible measurements and testing numbers at the Combine. And it’s not like this is just some 18-year-old that needs to fill out. McDaniels is 21 already and it’s hard to see him adding much muscle or strength onto his wiry frame. And without that physicality he used to dominate the MWC, I’m not sure what’s left to like. McDaniels plays with a high motor and good energy, but his instincts and reaction time don’t stand out, so it felt like he was successful for his body more than his game.

I like Jalen’s shot enough, and he’s certainly confident in it. He’ll be able to make NBA threes and pull-up twos if he doesn’t get pushed off his spot. His handle is decent but inconsistent, and he’s at his best when he is playing with a chip on his shoulder. There were too many games where McDaniels went silent for long stretches, struggling in all three games against Nevada and frequently getting into foul trouble and struggling physically against quality teams. Still, McDaniels defends well when he’s locked in, moving his feet well on the perimeter and his length to bother opponents. With his frame and defensive potential and a useful shot, he could become a useful role player.

NBA expectations

If McDaniels hopes to do more of what worked at San Diego State in the NBA, he’s not going to be in the league for long. He doesn’t have the body to handle such a high usage or hold up physically. But there’s a framework there for Jalen McDaniels as a role player, hitting open jumpers and using his length on defense as sort of a poor man’s Jonathan Isaac. The problem is Isaac is much better and only a half a year older. There’s just not a huge margin of error here, and I’m not convinced there’s more than a bit role.

Best team fits

I had McDaniels as a first-round pick much of the year, but I think there’s a better chance he goes undrafted. Searching for the right team fit was eye-opening because it’s really hard to find a role for McDaniels. Could he play some four or in a funky bench unit in Denver, Philly, or Utah? Maybe a rotation wing for Houston? I think OKC might be my favorite fit, just because they have a type and McDaniels fits. But I’ll be honest, the lack of reasonable options here pushed McDaniels a last couple spots down my ranks.

8. Luka Samanic, Croatia

Profile

Luka Samanic was one of the biggest Combine winners, going from relative unknown international prospect to apparently securing a first-round spot. Samanic looks like a classic Euro stretch four. He can handle the ball and shoot and is a surprising athlete.

Scouting analysis

Samanic is more athletic than a typical stretch four. He’s quick and agile with a nice vertical and some real burst, though he lacks length and badly needs to add strength and toughness. He moves well off the ball and runs in transition. He’s known for having questionable body language and attitude and an iffy motor, though it seems like his game grew a lot this year. Defensively, Samanic looks like a minus. He makes poor rotations and doesn’t have the length or strength to guard his size or the quick feet to guard smaller players.

The biggest question is regarding Samanic’s shot, since that’s his bread-and-butter skill as a stretch four. It’s… inconsistent. The mechanics need some work and he had rough shooting numbers in the Adriatic league. He’s made 32% of 332 career threes across competitions. That’s not good enough and there’s not enough there to get very excited.

NBA expectations

You want comps? We got comps. Think Dario Saric if you trade passing acumen for athleticism. Think more athletic but less gifted Danilo Gallinari. Are you getting the picture? If you’ve ever wished your stretch four was a little more athletic even if it meant they couldn’t do the stretch four skills as well, Samanic is your guy. When even guys like T.J. Leaf and Jon Leuer hang around the NBA, it’s hard to see him not carving out some sort of a role.

Best team fits

Samanic is the sort of stretch four a team needs if they have a defense-first center that can’t shoot. Come on down Utah, Brooklyn, Philly, OKC, Detroit, etc. There’s weirdly not a lot of great fits at the top of the second round, so if Samanic doesn’t make it into the first, he could slide.

9. Mfiondu Kabengele, Florida State

Profile

Kabengele is Dikembe Mutombo’s nephew and looks the part, a long shot blocker that came off the bench for the Seminoles and exploded onto the scene in March Madness. He’s a potential unicorn, a shot blocker with a promising three pointer, and he’s been one of the draft’s biggest risers.

Scouting analysis

I get the idea here — threes + blocks in the modern NBA. I just don’t see much else. Kabengele is old, almost 22 already, and his game is very rudimentary. He’s an absolute black hole with zero passing ability, and though he hit 37% of his threes, he made only 34 in two seasons. Kabengele has questionable athleticism and some weird, clunky knee braces that give me pause, and he doesn’t show much as a decision maker.

NBA expectations

The highlights are nice but you should look good coming off the bench against guys you’re three years older than. Kabengele is strong and a nice rebounder, and the shot blocking is valuable. I get the upside of the profile, just not as a first-round pick where he’s suddenly risen. The age and lack of athleticism are too limiting for me. He looks like a bench weapon that fits the right matchup.

Best team fits

I love Kabengele in Milwaukee, where he can fill the newly-created Brook Lopez role, protecting the rim and shooting threes. I could see him fitting a similar role with the Lakers or next to another big wing creator. ■

Thanks for reading! Be sure to follow for plenty more NBA Draft content to come. If you’ve missed anything, here are profiles for two of the four best players in the 2019 draft…

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