2018 World Cup Post Group Play Power Rankings

Group Play is in the books, and Germany are out. How do the remaining 16 teams stack up? Are Belgium and Croatia as good as they look? And what to make of France and Spain?

It feels like the 2018 World Cup is just getting started, but with Group Play now a wrap, we are already 75% of the way done. Gone are 48 of the 64 matches, so we need to savor the remaining 16 (okay fine, 15, no one cares about third place). Pre-tournament favorite Germany are out, but almost all the other favorites survived. So what should we expect now?

A couple weeks ago, everyone listed Germany, Brazil, France, Spain, and Argentina as favorites. Then Germany, Spain, and Argentina won only one match each, while sleepers Belgium and Croatia swept through their opponents with six wins combined.

So what do we make of the remaining 16 teams? Who has underperformed, and what teams’ results flatter them? It’s time to re-rank the 16 remaining World Cup teams with a little Bayesian logic, weighing what we knew three weeks ago up against three huge recent matches. How much should recency bias matter, and where is there more than meets the eye?

Let’s power rank.

Tier I — These Teams Just Aren’t Good

16. Japan

Subjective as rankings may be, it’s hard to argue that anyone but Japan deserves to be at the bottom. Japan advanced because they had fewer yellow cards than far-more-fun Senegal. They just haven’t done anything particularly impressive other than be the beneficiary of a fourth-minute red card against Colombia, a game in which they barely hung on to win anyway and were thoroughly outplayed. Japan have never advanced past the Round of 16, not even when they hosted in 2002. Don’t count on that changing next week.

15. Argentina

Cry about it.

It’s time to admit Argentina aren’t very good, and they haven’t been good for awhile. Argentina have won just two of their last eight competitive games. During that stretch, they beat Ecuador in a do-or-die game with a Messi hat trick and beat Nigeria with an 86th minute goal from defender Marcus Rojo. They also failed to beat Iceland, Peru, Venezuela, and Bolivia and scored a whopping seven goals in eight games during that stretch.

For all their attacking talent, whoever’s coaching this Argentina squad can’t seem to figure out a lineup that works. They’re not getting many good looks and they’re giving up a ton of good chances, especially since they’re still relying on past-his-expiration-date Mascherano to sop up the mess in the back, and he clearly can’t do the job on his own anymore. Argentina have the worst expected goal (xG) differential of any remaining team at -0.6.

Lionel Messi really is going to have to win this completely on his own.

Tier II — European Underdogs

14. Sweden

Sweden keep falling down my rankings every time I reconsider things. They look impressive enough at times but are mostly a defensive team that struggle to score but one that showed up as the antagonist in two memorable matches. Sweden scored only two of their five goals from open play and needed a few huge saves from Copenhagen keeper Robin Olsen to stay alive. The Swedes have actually made four World Cup semifinals, so they’re not quite the Cinderella you think.

13. Portugal

Ronaldo and Messi sure aren’t getting much help. The difference is that Ronaldo has done more so far to help cover things up. Portugal have had all sorts of things bounce their way this tournament, but they’ve still been very average against pretty moderate competition and could easily be out if Iran hadn’t Wondo’d their chance away. Portugal have held early leads much of the tournament, perfect for their sit-back-and-counter-attack style, and they’ve conceded four goals anyway. Their midfield is getting bossed, and they have scored five goals on just 2.4 xG, with two games at 0.5. Only Ronaldo’s brilliance has obscured Portugal’s mediocrity.

12. Denmark

There’s not exactly something rotten in Denmark, but there’s not much to get excited about either. Their three games saw three goals combined, and they were outplayed by Peru and drew with Australia despite an early goal. This is a defensive team waiting for a moment of magic from Christian Eriksen, which at least makes them a more organized version of Portugal.

11. Switzerland

The Swiss may be a bit overlooked right now. They’re +2.1 xG over three games, with organized defense that has been undone by bad luck at times. Switzerland played most of their first two matches from behind and came out with a draw and a win. Albanian dual nationals Shaqiri and Xhaka are getting the job done, but Switzerland have struggled matching up with size and that could be a problem against Sweden. The Swiss haven’t played in a quarterfinal since hosting the tournament in 1954. This is a golden opportunity.

10. Russia

Maybe this is too much respect for a team that was #70 in the FIFA rankings pre-tournament, but remember, Russia haven’t had any qualifying games to boost their ranking the last few years. The Russians looked incredible for two matches, racking up eight goals and running roughshod over Saudi Arabia and Egypt. They played with zest and speed, feeding off the crowd’s energy, before falling apart against Uruguay. But don’t forget how good Russia played as a front runner, with the crowd roaring behind them. If they can grab an early goal against Spain, anything can happen. And if they win that one, the home team bracket suddenly opens up all the way to the finals.

Tier III — The Western Sleepers

9. Mexico

What are we to make of Mexico at this point? Their early win against Germany was the moment of group play, and they looked like one of the best teams in the tournament through two matches. Then they were shambolic against Sweden, their speed and counterattacking muted when they were expected to possess. Maybe they’re just better off as underdogs. Beat Sweden and Mexico may have been a trendy pick to make the finals from a wide-open bracket region, the Croatia everyone’s talking about. Instead they get Brazil. But don’t count them out. Mexico have the style and pizzazz to match Brazil, so if this thing turns street ball, we could have our second huge Mexican upset.

8. Colombia

Last World Cup’s darling may be up for another run. Colombia are another overlooked team but one that have been pretty darn good considering the circumstances. The Colombians were down a goal and a man just four minutes into the opener and outplayed Japan much of the game anyway, and they’ve also gotten only one full game from superstar James Rodriguez and bossed Poland 3–0 in that one. They’ve done just enough to scrap by against the odds, but if James can get healthy enough, Colombia present a difficult stylistic matchup for England.

7. Uruguay

No one seems to think much of Uruguay, strange for a team that has allowed only 1.1 xG in three games combined thus far. Granted that was not against much competition, but it was still impressive to shut down Russia in a true road game after seeing what the Russians had done in two matches prior. This is what Uruguay always does, with gritty defense and enough Suarez and Cavani up top to find a way to score. They’re unbeaten in their last nine competitive matches with only three goals allowed. Uruguay’s quadrant should see a lot of defense and not many goals, and they have the guys up front built to create something out of nothing.

Tier IV — These Countries Could Win It All

6. England

England have actually been… quite good. They needed a late winner against Tunisia but actually thrashed them and got incredibly unlucky and bad finishing. Then they destroyed Panama 6–1 with a scoreline that really flattered them. It’s a bit worrying how many of England’s goals have come off of set pieces and penalties, but Gareth Southgate’s 3–4–3 is working, the pieces fit and the players are rested, Harry Kane is leading the Golden Boot race, and the path to the finals is wide open. England have never made the semifinals outside of their World Cup win in 1966. Are the stars aligning?

5. Croatia

You were expecting Croatia to rank higher, but let’s keep some perspective. Their 3–0 win against Argentina was one of the most comprehensive wins at the World Cup so far, but what if Argentina just aren’t very good? Expected goals says Croatia basically played both Iceland and Nigeria to a draw, and Croatia have struggled to create many clear chances outside of the last few minutes against Argentina. Modric and Rakitic are bossing the midfield, and Croatia are looking to make their first semifinal run since their first World Cup in 1998, but beware recency and selection bias. Croatia may be a bit overrated right now.

4. Spain

Spain’s results have been thoroughly underwhelming, but this is a vote on the bigger picture. In the narrow view, Spain have trailed four different times at the World Cup and have just two draws and a 1–0 win over Iran to their name. They won the group but would have been eliminated if not for a moment of Aspas brilliance in extra time against Morocco, and they’ve allowed five goals.

But expected goals tells another story all together, where those five are more than double the 2.3 xG allowed over three games, and Spain are at least +1 xG in every match. They have 5.9 xG attacking and are consistently getting as many chances as any team, playing defense by possession. They’ve had a couple weeks to settle in under interim coach Fernando Hierro now, and they still look like the most talented and balanced all around team and have the best path to the final. They’re pretty clearly the best team on their half of the bracket. After all that, are Spain the favorites?

3. Belgium

You’re forgiven if you want to rank Belgium #1. They racked up nine goals in group play off 8.2 xG, and they remain unbeaten in the World Cup — like, the entire World Cup, qualifying and all. Belgium have now played 13 World Cup matches this cycle. They have 12 wins and a draw and have outscored their competition 52–8, and they haven’t lost a competitive match since the summer of 2016.

But what happens when the goal opportunities dry up against a real opponent? We didn’t get a chance to find out against England, and we won’t against Japan either, but what about against Brazil or France? Belgium’s defense has looked shaky and disorganized, the same old story. Belgium are incredible front runners, like a great college team running up the score in a bad conference. What happens when that team faces adversity?

2. France

France remain unbelievably frustrating to watch… and really successful on the pitch. France may have more individual talent than any team in the field, but you’d never know it the way they sit back and defend. The French have scored only 21 goals in 13 World Cup games this cycle, and they have only one goal from open play this summer.

But oh, that defense. Led by all-everything N’Golo Kante in midfield, France just is just suffocating opponents. They’ve allowed a measly 0.6 xG over three matches, the only goal coming from a penalty against Australia. This formula worked for France at Euros 2016, and it’s working again, no matter how boring it is to watch.

No one is talking about France, and that may be just fine with them. Typically the French are either a disaster or a serious contender. They’ve only survived group stage seven times in 20 World Cups, but they made the semifinals in five of them. Could a sixth be coming soon?

Tier V — Still the Favorites, Always…

1. Brazil

If we’re playing football, then Brazil are the favorites. They have qualified for all 20 World Cups and made the semifinals in 11 of them, over half. They have five world titles, and now the Germans are out of the way.

Brazil disappointed with an early 1–1 draw against Switzerland but have since added a pair of convincing 2–0 victories. They dominated in CONMEBOL qualifying, and they’ve dominated by expected goals in Russia. They’re getting a ton of shots as always, and the defense has been strong. Is it a little worrying that Brazil seem better when they bring on subs like Firmino, Costa, and Fernandinho? Maybe a little bit. But maybe that just shows how much talent and versatility this squad has, and maybe Tite just knows how to pull the right strings.

Brazil are the favorites until proven otherwise. They always have been and they always will be.

Follow Brandon on Medium or @wheatonbrando for more sports, humor, pop culture, and life musings. Visit the rest of Brandon’s writing archives here. Thanks to Michael Caley for his always excellent expected goals work.