avatarBrandon Anderson

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Abstract

  </div><figure id="0d79"><img src="https://cdn-images-1.readmedium.com/v2/resize:fit:800/1*KOeIA3SOGLaBGYQ6jjADmA.png"><figcaption></figcaption></figure><h1 id="3e1f">The Heavy Favorites</h1><h2 id="ea4a">New York Jets +9.5 vs New England</h2><p id="b580">Keep fading the Patriots until they prove otherwise. How often do you see a team favored by essentially double digits on the road against a division rival rival with the same record? The Pats could easily be 1–4 and often struggle at MetLife, where Tom Brady’s lost four of eight. They split the last four, with Patriots wins by one and five and two Jets overtime victories. New England’s defense is horrifyingly bad. Can even Josh McCown score on them?</p><h2 id="b7e2">San Francisco +11 at Washington</h2><p id="062e">Washington is coming off a bye and should be much healthier on offense with Jordan Reed, Robb Kelley, and Jamison Crowder. But this is a lot of respect for a team that hasn’t really proven much. San Francisco is winless but they’ve lost games by two, three, three, and three points. The defense should keep this close, and it wouldn’t be completely shocking to see the 49ers steal one, if you prefer the 4–1 money line.</p><h2 id="206a">Houston -7.5 vs Cleveland</h2><p id="36ca">Kevin Hogan makes his first career start after the Browns benched DeShone Kizer, and he’ll face a Houston defense that just lost stud pass rushers J.J. Watt and Whitney Mercilus for the season. The Texans have plenty of talent left on defense, though, and Cleveland is averaging just 15 points per game. Houston’s offense is the hottest in football with 124 points the last three weeks. Deshaun Watson might decide to give Browns fans a look at just what they passed on.</p><h2 id="4e13">Denver -12 vs New York Giants</h2><p id="0947">The Giants are 0–5 somehow, and it might get worse with games against the Broncos and Seahawks up next. Odell Beckham and Brandon Marshall are out for the season, and Sterling Shepard may miss this week too. That leaves Roger Lewis, Wayne Gallman, Orleans Darkwa, and Tavarres King to face a defense that was historically good last year, and they’ll do it on the road in Sunday night prime time. It could get ugly.</p><h2 id="eec9">Atlanta -12.5 vs Miami</h2><p id="f576">Miami might be 2–2, but they are bad, bad, bad. The Dolphins have scored only five touchdowns in 2017. One of those was on defense, another on the final play of a shutout loss, and a third happened in January. Jay Cutler has seen his passing yards drop each game, and he only had 230 Week 1 so that’s a big problem. Atlanta is going to score plenty at home coming off their bye, and the Dolphins just have no chance at keeping up. Vegas can’t set this line high enough.</p><div id="3ea9" class="link-block">
      <a href="https://readmedium.com/week-6-fantasy-football-buy-or-sell-ee8539a0515">
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            <h2>Week 6 fantasy football buy or sell</h2>
            <div><h3>Make some bye week trades and prep for that Hunter Henry breakout </h3></div>
            <div><p>medium.com</p></div>
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    </div><figure id="4e29"><img src="https://cdn-images-1.readmedium.com/v2/resize:fit:800/1*KOeIA3SOGLaBGYQ6jjADmA.png"><figcaption></figcaption></figure><h1 id="e1a4">The Backup Quarterbacks</h1><h2 id="2c1a">Los Angeles Chargers +3 at Oakland</h2><p id="e1ff">The Raiders are suddenly staring at a lost season with their offense completely M.I.A. over the past three weeks. E.J. Manuel barely hit a hundred yards outside of a bomb to Michael Crabtree, and Amari Cooper and Marshawn Lynch were last seen on the side of a milk carton. The Chargers have allowed 755 rushing yards, more than any team, and the 2016 Raiders would’ve dominated this one but they’ve yet to find any running lanes in 2017. The Chargers have just been better.</

Options

p><h2 id="e24f">Tennessee ?? vs Indianapolis (Monday)</h2><p id="7120">There’s no line yet while we wait to see what’s happening at quarterback, but take the Titans unless Andrew Luck magically returns or the line is more than a touchdown. Jacoby Brissett has done a fine job for the Colts and should move the ball on a bad Titans defense, but Tennessee should pull out all the stops in a home Monday night game.</p><h2 id="77a3">Green Bay -3 at Minnesota</h2><p id="5f5b">Minnesota’s offense has lacked a spark since losing Dalvin Cook and they have two options at quarterback that aren’t getting the job done. Green Bay hasn’t had that problem since the ‘80s. Minnesota has an elite corner in Xavier Rhodes, but the others have been awful and Aaron Rodgers has a history of targeting Vikings corners and running them into the ground. Trae Waynes is going to have nightmares about this game for years.</p><div id="6631" class="link-block"> <a href="https://grandstandcentral.com/the-official-2017-nba-league-pass-watchability-rankings-c3b86434df52"> <div> <div> <h2>The Official 2017 NBA League Pass Watchability Rankings</h2> <div><h3>After a wild offseason and new superstars in new places, which teams should you be most excited to watch in 2017?</h3></div> <div><p>grandstandcentral.com</p></div> </div> <div> <div style="background-image: url(https://miro.readmedium.com/v2/resize:fit:320/1*Xj0nPeF26jrQXx_vH22eWg.jpeg)"></div> </div> </div> </a> </div><figure id="523c"><img src="https://cdn-images-1.readmedium.com/v2/resize:fit:800/1*KOeIA3SOGLaBGYQ6jjADmA.png"><figcaption></figcaption></figure><h1 id="4ac2">Week 6 Best Bets</h1><h2 id="80b4">Tampa Bay -1.5 at Arizona</h2><p id="f1d3">What in the world is Vegas doing with the Cardinals? They continue to get way too much respect at 2–3 with a pair of overtime wins against the bad Colts and 49ers. Jameis Winston should carve up a bad Arizona secondary as long as he stays away from Patrick Peterson, and Doug Martin looked great in his return from suspension. We don’t know if the Bucs are any good yet, but we know the Cards are bad, and this is not a coin flip game.</p><h2 id="c557">Baltimore -6.5 vs Chicago</h2><p id="5d69">The Ravens may not actually be good, but they’re good at front running. Mitchell Trubisky had some moments in his first start but clearly has a long ways to go, and it doesn’t help that he has no one to throw to. Now he makes his first road start in one of the last stadiums that still has a big home field advantage. Baltimore is <a href="https://twitter.com/LordReebs/status/917763984404762624">9–0 at home against rookie QBs</a> over the last decade with 13 interceptions and just three passing TDs allowed. This is exactly the sort of game the Ravens dominate.</p><h2 id="d45b">Kansas City -3.5 vs Pittsburgh</h2><p id="9474">The most shocking line of the week. It’s like Vegas set this line before the season started and forgot to update it based on everything we’ve seen over the first five weeks. The Chiefs are the best, most complete team in football and it’s not even close right now. The Steelers have scored under 20 points a game against a soft schedule. Pittsburgh destroyed Kansas City a year ago 43–14 with five Roethlisberger TDs, but Big Ben has only six TDs all season and doesn’t look right. How are the Chiefs not getting more respect at home?</p><h2 id="d677">Week 5 record: 9–5 Season record: 35–40–3 Best bets: 11–5 Locks: 1–0</h2><figure id="33e9"><img src="https://cdn-images-1.readmedium.com/v2/resize:fit:800/1*KOeIA3SOGLaBGYQ6jjADmA.png"><figcaption></figcaption></figure><p id="101c"><i>Follow Brandon on Medium or <a href="https://twitter.com/wheatonbrando">@wheatonbrando</a> for more sports, culture, history, and humor. Visit the rest of Brandon’s <a href="https://readmedium.com/brandon-anderson-writing-archives-6b3ee1a29301#.6cteu050v">writing archives here</a>.</i></p></article></body>

2017 NFL Week 6 Picks against the Spread

A week of big favorites and why the Bucs, Chiefs, and Ravens are Week 6’s best bets

Crazy how a week changes things in the NFL. Seven days ago, it felt like we knew nothing, but now a few teams are buried and the cream is beginning to rise to the top. Only four of this week’s games are within three points or less while a handful of heavy favorites have emerged. The 2017 NFL hierarchy is beginning to take shape.

So too are these weekly picks against the spread. We are 19–11 the last two weeks and fresh out our first perfect set of best bets, now 11–5 on the season. Let’s keep the momentum rolling and get to this week’s picks…

The Stay Aways

Carolina -3 vs Philadelphia (Thursday)

Holy cow, a great Thursday night game!! These are two of the NFC’s best, and the winner gets to 5–1 and a huge leg up in the race for the 1-seed. Both teams finished last in their division a year ago, but things look a lot different now. Carson Wentz has been great for the Eagles, but few quarterbacks are as hot as Cam Newton, and he could carve up this Philadelphia secondary. Carolina’s defense has been dominant outside of a clunker against the Saints and two late comeback attempts. It’s just tough to make a case for Philly.

Jacksonville -1.5 vs Los Angeles Rams

How much money could you have made in August if you bet on this being one of the most intriguing matchups in Week 6? Suddenly this game features one of the league’s best offenses against one of its best defenses. Jacksonville’s defense has been fearsome and this may be a steep test for Jared Goff. The Rams have been worst in the league against opposing RBs, and that sets up poorly against the Jaguars. Leonard Fournette should eat, and the Rams could struggle in their first cross-country flight of the season.

Detroit +5 at New Orleans

This is in the Bill Simmons Vegas Zone, but it’s a confusing line, implying the Saints are a couple points better than the Lions on a neutral field. Detroit is a couple plays away from being undefeated while the Saints have really only looked good once in a kitchen sink game in Carolina. New Orleans is much better at home, but Stafford should be able to keep pace in a track meet. Detroit has backdoor cover potential if needed too.

The Heavy Favorites

New York Jets +9.5 vs New England

Keep fading the Patriots until they prove otherwise. How often do you see a team favored by essentially double digits on the road against a division rival rival with the same record? The Pats could easily be 1–4 and often struggle at MetLife, where Tom Brady’s lost four of eight. They split the last four, with Patriots wins by one and five and two Jets overtime victories. New England’s defense is horrifyingly bad. Can even Josh McCown score on them?

San Francisco +11 at Washington

Washington is coming off a bye and should be much healthier on offense with Jordan Reed, Robb Kelley, and Jamison Crowder. But this is a lot of respect for a team that hasn’t really proven much. San Francisco is winless but they’ve lost games by two, three, three, and three points. The defense should keep this close, and it wouldn’t be completely shocking to see the 49ers steal one, if you prefer the 4–1 money line.

Houston -7.5 vs Cleveland

Kevin Hogan makes his first career start after the Browns benched DeShone Kizer, and he’ll face a Houston defense that just lost stud pass rushers J.J. Watt and Whitney Mercilus for the season. The Texans have plenty of talent left on defense, though, and Cleveland is averaging just 15 points per game. Houston’s offense is the hottest in football with 124 points the last three weeks. Deshaun Watson might decide to give Browns fans a look at just what they passed on.

Denver -12 vs New York Giants

The Giants are 0–5 somehow, and it might get worse with games against the Broncos and Seahawks up next. Odell Beckham and Brandon Marshall are out for the season, and Sterling Shepard may miss this week too. That leaves Roger Lewis, Wayne Gallman, Orleans Darkwa, and Tavarres King to face a defense that was historically good last year, and they’ll do it on the road in Sunday night prime time. It could get ugly.

Atlanta -12.5 vs Miami

Miami might be 2–2, but they are bad, bad, bad. The Dolphins have scored only five touchdowns in 2017. One of those was on defense, another on the final play of a shutout loss, and a third happened in January. Jay Cutler has seen his passing yards drop each game, and he only had 230 Week 1 so that’s a big problem. Atlanta is going to score plenty at home coming off their bye, and the Dolphins just have no chance at keeping up. Vegas can’t set this line high enough.

The Backup Quarterbacks

Los Angeles Chargers +3 at Oakland

The Raiders are suddenly staring at a lost season with their offense completely M.I.A. over the past three weeks. E.J. Manuel barely hit a hundred yards outside of a bomb to Michael Crabtree, and Amari Cooper and Marshawn Lynch were last seen on the side of a milk carton. The Chargers have allowed 755 rushing yards, more than any team, and the 2016 Raiders would’ve dominated this one but they’ve yet to find any running lanes in 2017. The Chargers have just been better.

Tennessee ?? vs Indianapolis (Monday)

There’s no line yet while we wait to see what’s happening at quarterback, but take the Titans unless Andrew Luck magically returns or the line is more than a touchdown. Jacoby Brissett has done a fine job for the Colts and should move the ball on a bad Titans defense, but Tennessee should pull out all the stops in a home Monday night game.

Green Bay -3 at Minnesota

Minnesota’s offense has lacked a spark since losing Dalvin Cook and they have two options at quarterback that aren’t getting the job done. Green Bay hasn’t had that problem since the ‘80s. Minnesota has an elite corner in Xavier Rhodes, but the others have been awful and Aaron Rodgers has a history of targeting Vikings corners and running them into the ground. Trae Waynes is going to have nightmares about this game for years.

Week 6 Best Bets

Tampa Bay -1.5 at Arizona

What in the world is Vegas doing with the Cardinals? They continue to get way too much respect at 2–3 with a pair of overtime wins against the bad Colts and 49ers. Jameis Winston should carve up a bad Arizona secondary as long as he stays away from Patrick Peterson, and Doug Martin looked great in his return from suspension. We don’t know if the Bucs are any good yet, but we know the Cards are bad, and this is not a coin flip game.

Baltimore -6.5 vs Chicago

The Ravens may not actually be good, but they’re good at front running. Mitchell Trubisky had some moments in his first start but clearly has a long ways to go, and it doesn’t help that he has no one to throw to. Now he makes his first road start in one of the last stadiums that still has a big home field advantage. Baltimore is 9–0 at home against rookie QBs over the last decade with 13 interceptions and just three passing TDs allowed. This is exactly the sort of game the Ravens dominate.

Kansas City -3.5 vs Pittsburgh

The most shocking line of the week. It’s like Vegas set this line before the season started and forgot to update it based on everything we’ve seen over the first five weeks. The Chiefs are the best, most complete team in football and it’s not even close right now. The Steelers have scored under 20 points a game against a soft schedule. Pittsburgh destroyed Kansas City a year ago 43–14 with five Roethlisberger TDs, but Big Ben has only six TDs all season and doesn’t look right. How are the Chiefs not getting more respect at home?

Week 5 record: 9–5 Season record: 35–40–3 Best bets: 11–5 Locks: 1–0

Follow Brandon on Medium or @wheatonbrando for more sports, culture, history, and humor. Visit the rest of Brandon’s writing archives here.

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