2017 NFL week 2 picks against the spread

Weekly picks for every game plus three best bets

Alright, let’s try this again. It was a rough start last week, in sort of the same way that pigeons had a rough relationship with MLB pitcher Randy Johnson. We started the season 0–8–1 before a better afternoon, but the best bets still won you money at 2–1 and we’re back to give it another go.

It’s important not to put too much stock into Week 1 results. Take a look at last season. Atlanta lost at home to Tampa. The Cowboys lost at home to the Giants. Those teams combined to go 24–6 the rest of the way. New England, Seattle, Green Bay, and Oakland won by nine points combined. Those teams went 46–17–1. San Francisco won its opener 28–0, then only won once more the rest of the season. Don’t overreact to Week 1. It tells us something, but not everything. Stick to what you know. Good teams are still good, despite what happened last week.

If nothing else, just know that a nine-team $100 parlay against all my early Week 1 picks would’ve won you a tidy $14K. Don’t say I never did anything for you.

Cincinnati -6 vs Houston (Thursday)

The Bengals on a short week with as many points this season as the hurricaned-out Dolphins and Bucs were nearly a touchdown favorite… and I talked myself into them anyway. Off to a good start.

I figured Deshaun Watson would make a big play — just didn’t realize one would be enough. The Texans won a road game with a rookie QB making his first start on three days prep with one receiver, no tight ends, no offensive line, and no cornerbacks. A masterclass of putridity from Marvin Lewis and Andy Dalton.

The Stay-Aways

Let’s try something new this week and rank our picks by confidence. We’ll still pick every game, but that doesn’t mean you have to wager on them all. Which games might be better left untouched?

Carolina -7 vs Buffalo

Neither impressed last week, both 1–0 by virtue of playing the league’s worst teams. Carolina struggled offensively and Cam Newton actually might not be the better QB in this matchup right now. But Buffalo was one of the three worst teams against the run last year, and the Panthers should win this with an old school game plan running the ball and playing tough D.

Pittsburgh -6 vs Minnesota

These are two of the NFL’s best passing defenses, but this Pittsburgh attack is something else entirely with Brown, Bell, and Bryant. Xavier Rhodes can’t cover everyone at once for Minnesota, and Trae Waynes ain’t ready for this. Sam Bradford is not the same guy under pressure, and Roethlisberger is a different quarterback at home. The Vikings looked great Monday, but this pessimistic fan isn’t a believer just yet.

Indianapolis +7.5 vs Arizona

The Colts haven’t even named a starting quarterback yet. It’ll either be the worst Opening Day starter in the league or the Patriots third string guy who has been on the team less than two weeks. Let’s see how Colts fans feel:

Still, this is a bet against the Cardinals. Arizona’s defense got shredded by Detroit’s one-sided attack, and the offense is now missing David Johnson. Did you see how bad the Giants looked Monday night without Odell Beckham? Johnson has an even bigger role. Without him, the Cardinals have a 34-year-old that runs five yard slants and a quarterback that looked a lot like 2015 Peyton Manning. Take the points … and the under.

New Orleans +6.5 vs New England

We need to appreciate these showdowns while we still have them. Brady and Brees can’t play forever, and the next generation of quarterbacks has been pretty uninspiring. These two defenses gave up over 700 yards and seven TDs to Sam Bradford and Alex Smith, so you know Brady and Brees are licking their chops. The Saints are a different animal at home, where they average 31.7ppg the last two seasons compared to 22.7 on the road. Everyone is just mindlessly grabbing New England here because they’re too good to go 0–2, but this one won’t be easy.

Atlanta -3 vs Green Bay

Expect fireworks. These teams combined for 130 points in two games last year, and they allowed the most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks last season so, uh, get Aaron Rodgers and Matt Ryan in your lineups. The Packers are hungry after Atlanta swept them last season with a controversial regular season win and a dominating 31–0 NFC Championship lead. The Falcons open their new stadium Sunday night, but Rodgers won’t be intimidated. This could just come down to whoever has the ball last.

Feeling Better But Some Real Questions Remain

There’s no need to stay totally away from these games if you have a strong lean, but it’s hard to feel super confident until we see more. Are the Raiders really a top five team? Are the Chiefs or the Eagles as good as they looked Week 1? Will Odell Beckham Jr. be healthy enough to play Monday night, and will he make a difference?

Oakland -13.5 vs New York Jets

Oakland won three times by double digits in 2016 against Jacksonville, Denver, and Buffalo — three teams that just didn’t have the QB or the offense to match Oakland point for point. The Jets couldn’t keep their defense off the field against the Bills last week and are trying to lose. We’ll pick against them until proven otherwise.

Kansas City -5.5 vs Philadelphia

The Eagles looked pretty good but Washington didn’t have anything like the pass rush Carson Wentz will face in this tough road matchup. Philadelphia’s offense is still pretty blasé with plenty of check downs and swing passes, and that sounds all too familiar to Andy Reid and Chiefs fans. Reid knows Eagles coach Doug Pederson forwards and backwards, and these mentor vs. student matchups usually go one way. The Eagles might be good, but we know the Chiefs are. Andy Reid may have another lesson or two for Pederson.

New York Giants -3 vs Detroit (Monday)

The Giants looked awful against Dallas, but that just highlights how important Odell Beckham is to this offense. A healthy OBJ would make the Giants one of my best bets in this one, but he practiced for the first time in a month yesterday and says it’s a six to eight week recovery timetable for an injury he sustained 25 days ago. Still, the Giants allowed the second fewest pass TDs in the league last year and actually held the Dallas attack pretty well intact considering how much time they spent on the field. Detroit will need a balanced attack to beat this defense, and they don’t have one.

Confident against Bad Teams on the Road

Home field advantage isn’t what it used to be, but it’s still a good idea to bet against bad teams and especially against bad quarterbacks on the road. Mike Glennon, Brian Hoyer, and DeShone Kizer (for now) fit the bill, but the fourth name may surprise you.

Tampa Bay -7 vs Chicago

Is there such a thing as a Mike Glennon revenge game? Glennon returns to face the team that drafted him, and you can bet the Tampa defense will be ready. They held Dallas, New Orleans, Seattle, and Kansas City to 13.3ppg over one month to close out last season and beat Chicago 36–10 during that stretch too. This should be a great way to ease into the season.

Baltimore -8 vs Cleveland

There are a handful of big home favorites this weekend, and a couple (Seattle and Oakland) are favored by two touchdowns. Baltimore looked just as good and the Browns won one game last season and are giving a rookie QB his first start on the road. Baltimore has won 16 of the last 18 matchups between these supposed rivals. This Ravens defense might be legit.

Los Angeles Chargers -3.5 vs Miami

It’s going to be an interesting experiment for the Chargers playing in front of 27,000 fans in Hollywood Park in a tiny stadium that apparently still has tickets available just days before its first home game ever. But maybe you can’t blame fans for skipping out on the Sourpuss Super Bowl between Philip Rivers and Jay Cutler. Cutler stunk last season then tried to quit football before Miami coaxed him out of retirement, and the speed of this game may overwhelm him in his return. Rivers may be as big of a sourpuss as Cutler, but he makes his teammates better. That’s one thing Jay Cutler will never do.

Seattle -13.5 vs San Francisco

Don’t overthink this. The 49ers scored three points at home against the Panthers. Seattle has one of the most terrifying defenses in football and a huge home advantage. Seattle might not need to score much more than 14 to cover this one.

Week 2 Best Bets

Any spread under three points is essentially a pick’em, so you always take the team you like better. Week 2’s best bets are all presumed coin flip games, but three of these teams are just better than their opponent.

Los Angeles Rams -2.5 vs Washington

This is the Sean McVay Bowl. McVay left the Redskins offense in January to become the youngest head coach in NFL history for the Rams, and you saw the difference on both teams Week 1. Jared Goff looked like a real NFL QB with career high yards (306) and completion percentage (72%) as the Rams scored 46 to top the league. Kirk Cousins saw a huge drop from his last two seasons as a starter under McVay, his completion percentage falling from 68 to 57% and his yards per attempt plummeting from 7.9 to 6.0. Bet on Sean McVay and an a Rams defense with a hungry returning Aaron Donald.

Tennessee -1.5 at Jacksonville

The Titans were a top three run defense last year, so Jacksonville’s run, run, run again game plan with Leonard Fournette may not work, and Marcus Mariota is no Tom Savage. Blake Bortles is going to have to make some plays to beat a real opponent. Three years of evidence says he can’t, and now he’s missing his best receiver. Jacksonville’s home advantage is nonexistent, so take the better QB and the better team.

Dallas -1.5 at Denver

Denver has been winning games with smoke and mirrors for years now, and parlor tricks aren’t going to get it done against a team that went 13–3 last year and looked the part on Sunday night. The Broncos pass defense is lights out but the run defense was a soft spot in 2016. Only San Francisco and Cleveland had more runs against them. Ezekiel Elliott will be featured early and often, and the Cowboys should control this game from the start.

Week 1 record: 3–10–2 Season record: 3–11–2 Best bets: 2–1

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