Zach LaVine Injury Could Be a Blessing in Disguise

Teddy Bridgewater, Ricky Rubio, Adrian Peterson, Justin Morneau, Joe Mauer… Minnesota sports fans aren’t exactly caught off guard anymore when it comes to star athletes suffering devastating season-ending injuries. So, when news broke Saturday that Zach LaVine had torn his ACL and would miss the rest of the 2017 season, Minnesota fans were saddened, but probably not shocked.

This is just what it means to be a Minnesota fan. The season started with such high hopes — a talented trio of 21-year-olds, plus new coach Tom Thibodeau at the helm, had many predicting Minnesota to take a leap forward this year. Instead the Wolves sit at 19–31 heading into Saturday night’s game, third worst in the West. LaVine’s injury didn’t exactly knock them out of the playoff hunt, but it is a final blow.

Zach LaVine is an incredibly talented young player for the Timberwolves, and some at 16 Wins a Ring had earmarked him as a 2017 breakout candidate. Though his scoring had slipped over the past month, LaVine still had a good shot to become only the ninth player in history to average 20 points and two threes a game age 23 or under. Heck, he still has two more years to get there. He’s a two-time Slam Dunk champion, and this year he was a real candidate for Most Improved Player, with an outstanding jumper added to his arsenal.

Make no mistake about it, this injury is absolutely devastating for Zach LaVine. Any basketball fan can only hope for a full recovery athletically — and in 2017, torn ACLs are hardly the career-changer that they used to be.

Still, devastating as it is, the injury could end up being a blessing in disguise for both LaVine and the Wolves in the long run. Minnesota fans are used to the injuries piling up and being forced to search for a silver lining. Is there a hidden silver lining in an otherwise crushing LaVine injury?

1. The Minnesota playoff dream is definitely dead

Even the absolute best case scenario at this point of the season was Minnesota scrapping its way to 40 wins and a first round demolition by Golden State, maybe stealing one game and some “playoff experience” along the way. That dream is dead. The playoffs are not happening this year.

Minnesota is still just four games out of the 8-seed, but they just passed the easiest stretch of their schedule and have a steep climb going forward, with 10 of their next 18 games against top ten teams. To make the playoffs, Minnesota would have to pass Denver, Portland, Dallas, Sacramento, and New Orleans and do it without their star scorer and top shooter. After winning just 19 of their first 50 games, they’d probably need to win 19 of their final 32. It’s not happening. The playoff dream is over.

It was probably time to look toward the future anyways, but it’s definitely time now. And that’s not so terrible. The goal was never to win the title this year, not with the kids developing and the Golden State monster out west.

Minnesota should build toward a sustained window of excellence beginning a year or two down the road. Though this injury kills the playoff hopes for 2017, it should illuminate the long-term path of utmost importance.

2. This stops Minnesota from making a win-now deal

There have been rumors since the draft that Minnesota might look to move one of its young players for a veteran. That’s off the table now, especially since LaVine was the most likely player to be moved.

Minnesota should never have forced its own hand with a win-now move anyway — and there’s no sign they were going to — but this should stop any risk of overpaying in a deal or trading away future talent for a stop-gap win-now type player.

Again, the window to compete should be something like 2019–2025. The playoffs this year were just supposed to be a step along the way.

3. Less LaVine touches means more for Towns

One problem Minnesota may have moving forward is how to get enough touches and shots for all three young stars. As good as Wiggins and LaVine are, Karl-Anthony Towns is much, much better. He should be THE guy, not one of three guys. His touches are more efficient and he opens things up for everyone else. Whenever Minnesota has peaked this season, it’s almost always come in a game when Towns was “selfish” and had a huge game with a lot of touches.

LaVine’s injury leaves Minnesota with only two significant offensive threats. That should force their hand to do what they probably should’ve done all along and run the offense through Towns. He can almost certainly score more, and he also has the rare big man passing gene to create for others too.

LaVine’s shooting and spacing will be missed, but if the injury forces Minnesota to see how effective an offense run through Towns can be, that’s a huge long-term win.

4. More Wiggins playmaking opportunities

Andrew Wiggins is the other remaining offensive threat on this team, and LaVine’s injury may force Wiggins to grow and adapt his game as well.

As smooth a scorer as Wiggins is, the rest of his game is sorely lacking. Minnesota could benefit from seeing the ball in Wiggins hands a bit more in a playmaking role. He’s so good with his spin move and attacking the basket, so it would behoove him to work to get his teammates more involved too.

Right now, 15 possessions a game were ending with LaVine taking a shot. Wiggins will have to create more of those shots now, both for himself and for his teammates.

5. More playing time for Dunn and Jones

I wrote recently about why I feel Minnesota really needs to step up its efforts to move Ricky Rubio, in large part because the Wolves need to see what they have in young guards Kris Dunn and Tyus Jones.

Dunn and Jones are natural point guards, but Minnesota has experimented with playing the two together at times and seeing how either of them can do off the ball. Jones is probably not a long-term fit at the two, but Dunn has the size and defensive skills to fit as an Avery Bradley type player, if he can develop a shot and learn how to play off the ball.

Once LaVine returns, this offense is never going to want or need a point guard to run the entire offense and have the ball in their hands a lot. This is a chance for Dunn and Jones to find some value off the ball next to Rubio, and it’s a chance for Minnesota to better evaluate what they have at guard heading into a very important draft and offseason.

6. A chance for LaVine to watch and learn

For all of LaVine’s talent, he still sorely lacks a great awareness or feel for the game. That’s especially true defensively, but it hurts the team on offense too.

And that’s to be expected. LaVine is just 21 and has plenty of time to learn and grow, and now he can do it for the next 9–12 months on the bench instead of with the game going 100mph in front of him. Look how much a guy like Joel Embiid grew during his time off the court and imagine how valuable LaVine could be when he returns if he adds an improved hoops IQ to his repertoire.

7. LaVine may transition to a role that fits better

Minnesota will likely have to start the 2017–18 season without LaVine and use him in a more limited role upon his return. That could mean fewer minutes as a starter or even coming off the bench — and ultimately that might be LaVine’s most valuable role on this team.

Unless Wiggins turns into a top defending wing under Thibs, Minnesota will always have a bad defense with LaVine and Wiggins on the wing. The truth is Minnesota needs LaVine’s spacing but they really don’t need his playmaking in the starting lineup and his defense is really hurting the team.

Long-term, LaVine could project to be something like a Jamal Crawford or Lou Williams, maybe a better-shooting DeMar DeRozan if everything comes together. While that’s a valuable player, but in 2017, it’s no longer a player you build your offense around. In many cases it’s your sixth man.

If Minnesota finds a better chemistry for Wiggins and Towns moving forward, maybe LaVine can take on a similar role to Klay Thompson for the Warriors, where he finds his biggest role leading the bench offense and shooting open jumpers when he plays with the other stars.

8. Minnesota gets a better draft pick

Right now, Minnesota would have the fifth best odds to land the #1 pick in this summer’s draft. With LaVine around, they may well have made a playoff push or seen that pick fall to the 10–12 range. With him out, they may settle in to the 5–7 range where they’re at now and could even get as high as #2 depending on how things work out with everyone not named Brooklyn.

Unless things really stagnate under Thibs, this is the last really high draft pick Minnesota will have in a long time. In a loaded draft, the LaVine injury may have preserved a high pick and a chance to add one more really talented piece to the core moving forward.

And lest you think Minnesota should move that pick for a veteran, don’t forget what’s so valuable about draft picks — they’re incredibly cheap. With LaVine, Wiggins, and Towns extensions all on the horizon, Minnesota’s cap space is going to disappear quickly. Young players like Jones, Dunn, or a high pick this year are huge assets to a team both in talent and in bang for their buck.

Minnesota should have enough money to splash on one good veteran this summer, but this draft pick could prove a key piece long-term if they’re able to find their version of Serge Ibaka or Harrison Barnes — or even better.

9. Minnesota may save a lot on a LaVine extension

This is a tough break for LaVine, but the reality is that Minnesota may have actually saved itself tens of millions of dollars with this ACL injury.

This summer, both Wiggins and LaVine will be able to negotiate extensions to their rookie deals. Wiggins seems certain to get the 4-year max worth approximately $110 million (pending the final cap), and depending on how things progressed this year, LaVine had a decent chance of demanding the same max. And Towns will be in line to sign a near-certain 5-year max next summer worth north of $140 million. That would’ve tied up over 75% of the team’s cap space moving forward.

With LaVine’s injury, it’s really difficult to see him getting a max extension this summer. The progression was not there yet, and the defense certainly isn’t. LaVine could choose to bet on himself and play out his rookie deal, waiting another year to look for an extension. But what if Minnesota offers him something in the 4 years and $75 million range? That’s life-changing money and it pays him as an above average starter. It’s possible LaVine could wait a year and prove he is worth the max, but it’s also $75 million in guaranteed money for a player working through an ACL recovery.

For Minnesota, the gamble represents a possible savings of around $8–10 million a year if they can get LaVine to sign such a deal. For a team that will be capped out in a couple years, that represents another contributing player or the chance to max a marquee free agent this summer. That’s a pretty huge difference and might be the biggest silver lining of them all.

10. A non-max extension takes some pressure off LaVine as well

There are different expectations for max players in the NBA. Max players are franchise players, guys expected to show up on both ends and help carry their teams to the playoffs. Zach LaVine may not be that guy, and a non-max extension takes some of that pressure off and lets it sit on Minnesota’s pair of #1 picks Towns and Wiggins, where it probably ought to.

LaVine on a max contract has the potential to become a liability, a score-first score-second guy that doesn’t push the team to the next level and eats up their cap space to stop them from getting someone that does. LaVine on a moderate contract gets to be one of the guys, like Dieng or Rubio, a contributor to a strong team. It removes some of the potential of a James Harden situation like in Oklahoma City, where there’s just not enough money or ball to keep everyone around.

At the end of the day, this is a tough pill to swallow for Zach LaVine, the Timberwolves, and Minnesota fans everywhere. It’s a dark day, and the rest of the season just won’t be as fun. But in the long run, the Zach LaVine injury just might turn out to be a blessing in disguise.

So fear not, Timberwolves fans. Today may mark the end of this season, but if things work out, it could also mark the beginning of a newer, even brighter future.