Your House Is on Fire: And the Temperature Will Keep Rising
Earth’s on a path to surpass a critical temperature threshold in the next five years
Earth’s global temperature is about to break a climate threshold sooner than you think.
The Paris Agreement Temperature Goal is to hold the global average temperature increase to well below 2℃ above pre-industrial levels. It’s also part of the agreement to pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5℃. And that’s where the bad news lie.
Experts at the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) warn that it’s very likely that Earth’s global temperature will exceed the 1.5℃ climate threshold at least once in the next five years.
So what’s the possibility of it happening? The WMO’s report, released last Wednesday, says it’s 66% likely that we’ll see the temperature spike 1.5℃ above pre-industrial levels, at least temporarily, in the next five years.
“WMO is sounding the alarm that we will breach the 1.5℃ level on a temporary basis with increasing frequency,” said WMO secretary-general, Prof. Peter Taalas.
Professor Taalas reiterates that the report doesn’t say global temperatures will permanently exceed the climate threshold. But the message is still quite alarming.
The Paris Agreement was signed in 2015 by 196 countries. These governments have pledged to protect the Earth and limit global temperature increases. At the time, the chances of global temperatures crossing the 1.5℃ climate threshold in the following five years were zero.
Sure enough, the planet hasn’t crossed that limit yet. The highest global temperature average experienced on Earth is 1.28℃ above pre-industrial levels. But not only we’re getting worryingly close, chances are that this threshold will be crossed soon.
And that’s not all that the Meteorological Organization has to tell us. According to their report, the news regarding our climate efforts isn’t good.
- 66% chance that Earth’s global temperature will exceed 1.5℃ above pre-industrial levels at least once in the next five years.
- 98% chance that at least one of the next five years will be Earth’s warmest year on record.
- 98% chance that the next five years, 2023 to 2027, could average the hottest five-year window on record.
It shouldn’t be a complete shock, since the past eight years have been confirmed as the eight warmest years on record. But it’s still very problematic.
Although El Niño and La Niña, the bothersome climate phenomena, are partially to blame for the rise in temperatures, human influence is well-established as one of the main offenders in the rise of global temperatures. Industrial and agricultural developments have dramatically increased greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions while decreasing Earth’s ability to reabsorb and retain some of those gases.
It’s more important than ever that governments, the private sector, and the general public — that’s you and me — take measurements and actions to prevent such temperature spikes.
UN’s Cop28 climate summit is set to happen later this year, in November. During the conference, governments will assess the Paris Agreement's progress. However, it remains to be seen what the summit will have to report to the world.
My dearest hope is that powerful countries, like the USA, and perhaps the whole of the European Union will ramp up their climate-related regulations and support developing countries in the rest of the world to achieve their goals as well.
The private sector must take ESG measures more seriously than they already have. And individuals, especially in wealthy Western countries, must also do their part.
Greta Thunberg warned the world that our house was on fire in 2019. It’s time we believed her warnings and started to do our part.
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