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Abstract

p id="9e28">You might be feeling a little depressed right now. Or maybe you’re feeling great!Either way, I’m here to tell you not to place too much stock in those percentages.“Why is that?” you ask. Well, the lawyer in me read Medium’s disclosure again. On the second reading, I noticed a caveat that swallows the whole.Specifically, Medium starts its sentence with these words: “If we look at all authors earning $10 or more\dots”.“What’s the big deal, James?” Simply this — we have no idea how many writers earn less than$ 10/month.It could be 10% of the total, it could be 50% of the total, or it could be 80%. We still know precisely nothing about the true distribution of earnings on Medium.<h2 id="7904">What We Do Know With Certainty</h2>We do know something with certainty, however.Because the figures Medium provided exclude a certain number of authors (i.e. all those who earn less than $10/month), the percentages of authors who earn$ 100 or $1000 are less than what Medium showed.How much less depends on how many writers earn less than$ 10/month. Pretty much everyone when they start out, right?If it’s 80% of writers, we’re right back at something like 6% of writers making more than $100 per month. If it’

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s just 20% of writers excluded, then over 20% of writers are making more than $100.<h2 id="edf5">Why These Numbers, and Why Now?</h2>Here’s a deeply cynical thought to end this today. Why did Medium let slip this earnings distribution precisely now?Could it have something to do with the Partner Program expanding to 12 new countries, including Brazil and India?This will expand the pool of potential earners by not quite two billion people. How many of these new writers do you think are going to start out below$ 10? What will that do to the over $100 club?I admit that my legal experience gives me a sometimes dark view of people’s behavior. That doesn’t mean I’m wrong.<ul><li>I say Medium’s misleading disclosure was made on purpose, and carefully timed.</li><li>Millions of budding authors will be given a false sense of how much they can earn and will be motivated to write on Medium far longer than they otherwise would.</li></ul>What do you think?(And Buster, if I’m wrong, how about some full disclosure?)Be well.Trust has to be earned. I trust you’ll make your way into the over$ 100 club by studying my stories for <a href="https://medium.com/@james.bellerjeau/list/all-about-writing-0da90a28557c">thriving on Medium</a>.</article></body>

You Thought You Were in the Top 10% of Writers on Medium

Medium lets slip the distribution of writer earnings … sort of

**You, zooming away from the pack** | Image James Bellerjeau

Conventional wisdom on Medium for a long time has been that a small percentage of writers earn more than $100 per month. The figure I’ve seen most often is that 6% of writers cross this threshold.

Medium recently let slip some details about authors’ earnings, and it’s illuminating. (This came in Buster Benson’s post about the new Partner Program incentives.)

Buster refers to Medium “looking at earnings in June across all authors…” and then describes this distribution of earnings:

About 65% earned between $10 and $100
29% earned between $100 and $1000
6% earned over $1000

So to be in the top 6%, you need to earn over $1,000 per month. Ten times more than you might have thought!

Don’t Worry if You Don’t Stack Up

You might be feeling a little depressed right now. Or maybe you’re feeling great!

Either way, I’m here to tell you not to place too much stock in those percentages.

“Why is that?” you ask. Well, the lawyer in me read Medium’s disclosure again. On the second reading, I noticed a caveat that swallows the whole.

Specifically, Medium starts its sentence with these words: “If we look at all authors earning $10 or more…”.

“What’s the big deal, James?” Simply this — we have no idea how many writers earn less than $10/month.

It could be 10% of the total, it could be 50% of the total, or it could be 80%. We still know precisely nothing about the true distribution of earnings on Medium.

What We Do Know With Certainty

We do know something with certainty, however.

Because the figures Medium provided exclude a certain number of authors (i.e. all those who earn less than $10/month), the percentages of authors who earn $100 or $1000 are less than what Medium showed.

How much less depends on how many writers earn less than $10/month. Pretty much everyone when they start out, right?

If it’s 80% of writers, we’re right back at something like 6% of writers making more than $100 per month. If it’s just 20% of writers excluded, then over 20% of writers are making more than $100.

Why These Numbers, and Why Now?

Here’s a deeply cynical thought to end this today. Why did Medium let slip this earnings distribution precisely now?

Could it have something to do with the Partner Program expanding to 12 new countries, including Brazil and India?

This will expand the pool of potential earners by not quite two billion people. How many of these new writers do you think are going to start out below $10? What will that do to the over $100 club?

I admit that my legal experience gives me a sometimes dark view of people’s behavior. That doesn’t mean I’m wrong.

I say Medium’s misleading disclosure was made on purpose, and carefully timed.
Millions of budding authors will be given a false sense of how much they can earn and will be motivated to write on Medium far longer than they otherwise would.

What do you think?

(And Buster, if I’m wrong, how about some full disclosure?)

Be well.

Trust has to be earned. I trust you’ll make your way into the over $100 club by studying my stories for thriving on Medium.