Week Three around the NFL — 32 teams for 32 seconds each

Using the numbers behind the numbers to predict future fantasy success — is it time to sell high or buy low?

Fantasy football is all about value. Good managers are finding ways to make their team a little better every week. Last week’s hero may be this week’s trade bait, and match ups and opportunity are everything.

So far the last two weeks we’ve given you Travis Benjamin, Marvin Jones, Tevin Coleman and DeVante Parker and told you to go get Matt Stafford and Allen Robinson. You’re sitting pretty if you’ve done some of those moves. So who else should you sell high on, and where should you buy low?

New England 27, Houston 0

Jacoby Brissett is 1–0, but that doesn’t mean he was great. He did what he needed to, but you should be skeptical about any Patriot not named LeGarrette Blount in week four. Blount has had 22-plus carries and a TD each game. He won’t maintain this value once Brady is back but should still be good. If someone offers you a lot, consider it. Otherwise consider this your window to buy low on all other Patriots before Tom Brady is back in a week. Brady, Gronk, and Edelman are all better than their trade value right now and could explode once the Deflategate suspension is over. Go get them.

Brady, Gronk, and Edelman are all better than their trade value right now and could explode once the Deflategate suspension is over. Go get them.

Houston was a giant poop emoji in this game, but Lamar Miller went over 100 yards anyway. He is looking the part of a top RB still. You might start thinking about selling DeAndre Hopkins for a comparable WR if you can. His value last year was in being the only option. With Miller running well and Fuller showing up, Hopkins isn’t even among the top 25 in the NFL in targets. He should still be good but he may struggle to match last year’s production.

Buffalo 33, Arizona 18

Well this was certainly a surprising result, with Rex Ryan’s Bills coming to play. Tyrod Taylor’s fantasy day was saved with 76 rushing yards and a TD, but he is going to be a huge risk if you play him while Sammy Watkins is out or injured. The guy you want is LeSean McCoy who continues to produce 100 yards every week and got you a couple TDs, too. When healthy, he’s got as good a floor as any RB.

Speaking of good as any RB, look at David Johnson. Even in a game the Cardinals simply did not show up for, DJ had 100-plus yards of his own and a pair of TDs. There’s still no one I’d trade him for. The Cards WRs were all pretty blah but each of the main three had 11-plus targets. Go grab John Brown if he’s available. This was the first time all season he’s had consistent targets so he may be back from his concussion issues, and now Michael Floyd left with concussion symptoms of his own. This could be the chance Brown owners have waited for. Brown and Floyd are solid floor guys with very high upside, which makes them nice players to have.

Minnesota 22, Carolina 10

We’re still getting a sense of what to expect from the Minnesota offense, but Kyle Rudolph look like an every week TE. He’s had eight-plus targets every week and ranks second in TE targets behind only Greg Olsen and he’s a good redzone target too. Jerick McKinnon did not “start,” but he’s clearly the RB you want with 17 touches to seven for Matt Asiata. He may struggle to get TDs, but seems like a usable RB2. Minnesota defense has reached stud must-start status.

It’s time to get out the checkbook and buy yourself some Panthers. It doesn’t get any harder than Denver and Minnesota in the first three weeks, yet both Cam Newton and Greg Olsen have been quite good anyways. They both have a high floor and more ceiling to come. And Kelvin Benjamin’s value will never be lower after a shutout here, but he’s been excellent otherwise. After a rough start, the Panthers now face ATL TB NO the next three weeks. Go trade for a Panther while you still can. Cameron Artis-Payne is the RB to own if you must, but Whitaker is getting the passing reps and Tolbert (and Cam) will steal TDs, so the value is limited here even with an easy schedule coming.

Go trade for a Panther while you still can.

Baltimore 19, Jacksonville 17

Baltimore is 3–0 and Jacksonville is 0–3, but these teams’ fantasy fortunes are going the opposite direction. In smaller leagues, there shouldn’t be a single Raven on a roster. Pitta can be a useful tight end, and I’ve got my eye on Steve Smith, Sr. who is showing some burst and getting better each game. Stash Kenneth Dixon at RB if you can afford a spot. Neither Justin Forsett nor Terrence West has done much and he should be back soon and could take the lead of this RBBC.

Meanwhile I’m still in on the Jags especially with IND CHI OAK next on the schedule. Blake Bortles is a terrible NFL QB but has become a weirdly consistent fantasy one with another two TDs here, and Allen Robinson finally had a couple TDs. I’d still love to get both. Chris Ivory was back and very meh with just 14 yards on 12 carries, and TJ Yeldon is still getting his touches so I’m not ready to cut ties there quite yet.

Oakland 17, Tennessee 10

Another week, another TD saving some value for Latavius Murray who remains high on the sell list. He’s being productive with his touches, just not getting enough of them. He’s a third RB flex type. If you can sell him for someone who will produce more consistently, you ought to. I still like Amari Cooper a ton as a talent, but it’s getting frustrating that he is splitting his targets pretty evenly with Crabtree. His ceiling is a bit limited right now to a lower end WR1.

The Murray you really want to own is DeMarco Murray in Tennessee. You might find someone panicking a bit with Derrick Henry hitting 10 carries this week to Murray’s 16, but Murray is producing better and scoring TDs, and he’s had 5-plus catches every single week so far. That’s RB1 value. Go ahead and cut Marcus Mariota until Tennessee wises up and puts him in the shotgun where he clearly succeeds at the ends of games.

Denver 29, Cincinnati 17

The Denver offense is slowly transforming before our eyes as the team grows ever confident with Trevor Siemian. Don’t rush out to grab Trevor Siemian, who had four TDs but just one in the first two games combined. But still, notice that his YPA and QBR are up each game with a completion percentage over 65 percent each time, so you can start to have faith in his play makers. Emmanuel Sanders had a huge game and looks like the go-to guy here. He has the most Denver targets in all three games and is second in the NFL in red zone targets, so this is real. That’s too bad for Demaryius Thomas owners, who might think about selling high. Thomas caught a long TD to save some value but otherwise looks like the second option in a run-based team now, a WR3 type in fantasy. Be careful with CJ Anderson. He’ll have better games than this, but his value is starting to slide a bit with Devontae Booker seeing the field and Siemian throwing more. Anderson is a top 10 RB still but if you can swap him for someone like Elliott or Bell you have to jump at it.

Cincinnati should see an uptick in fantasy production after 3 tough games against the Jets, Steelers, Broncos as they face the Fins, Pats, and Browns next. AJ Green has had a couple of quieter weeks so he’s a slight buy low, and you should add Tyler Eifert if he’s available. They’ll help each other out once he’s back. Jeremy Hill had a good game with two TDs and almost 100 yards, and he’ll continue to be a good start especially in games like against Miami and Cleveland where Cincinnati should be protecting a lead.

Miami 30, Cleveland 24

In case you forgot, Jarvis Landry is still a stud. Parker had three catches and a TD too and definitely looks like a guy to add if available. The RBs are a mess, but Kenyan Drake is the one to own if any. Miami plays Thursday so you know Arian Foster won’t be playing. Drake got nine of the 22 carries and saw the field on 27 plays, most of any RB. And don’t just throw your hands up on the Miami RB situation. Jay Ajayi had a TD, Damien Williams caught a TD and Drake had a TD last week — and Miami has had a top fantasy RB the last two seasons too. Someone is going to produce here. I might actually buy low on Foster and wait for him to be ready after a three week layoff.

So yeah, you should definitely pick up and start Terrelle Pryor until proven otherwise. He had eight catches for 144 yards, four carries for 21 yards and three completions for 35 yards, and if we see more games like that, he might be a top 10 fantasy player. It probably won’t last, but ride the wave while you can, which may just be one week until Josh Gordon is back. Pick him up if he’s on waivers. Sell on Isaiah Crowell if you still can, who is just very meh and isn’t involved in the passing game. This was Duke Johnson, Jr.’s best game of the season so maybe he’ll get some value back under Cody Kessler.

Green Bay 34, Detroit 27

The Packers still feel very inconsistent. After a monster 31-point first half, they mustered just three in the second half and still don’t look themselves. Aaron Rodgers is back!… to being very confusing still. He had four TDs in the first half but barely 200 yards total. He looked better, and Jordy Nelson finally had a huge game and looked in sync so maybe the Packers are getting there. With Green Bay on a bye, this might be one final chance to buy on Rodgers or Jordy. Randall Cobb still sucks, but you know that by now. Eddie Lacy does too but he had 100 yards so this is a good opportunity to sell. He chewed up garbage time yards but simply isn’t reliable even as an RB2.

One of the hot names from last week was Theo Riddick, but he was disappointing — in standard leagues. He matched rookie Dwayne Washington’s 10 carries, not much value add there, but he did seem to absorb Abdullah’s targets with nine of them and seven catches, so the PPR value is definitely still there. Marvin Jones is a name we told you to go get, so 200 yards and two TDs later you’re feeling pretty good. That’s a sell high as he obviously won’t do that every week but he looks like a good WR2. Stafford is looking like a weekly starting QB in any match-up.

Washington 29, NY Giants 27

One guy to target in trades may be Jordan Reed, third in the NFL in targets for a tight end. He’s doing fine at 64 yards a game but owners may be getting antsy with their high investment. Once the injuries start hitting Washington’s receivers, his value will go up. You might grab Matt Jones too. He’s running better the last couple weeks and is a usable RB2 in the right games.

You’re in a tough spot with your Giants, who don’t have another plus match-up until Chicago in late November. That would normally mean sell high but the value isn’t exactly high either. OBJ and Shepherd have been good not great — expect more of that, both usable but maybe no monster games. As for Eli Manning there’s no run game here with Vereen out now too, but he’s a bottom QB1 which makes him a match-up play — and none favor him for awhile now. You may need to look elsewhere for a starter.

Los Angeles 37, Tampa Bay 32

The Rams finally scored some points after just 9 the first two games, but they’re still pretty useless in fantasy. It’s definitely time to sell on Todd Gurley, who had two short TDs but still looks nothing like what you hoped you got with a top-five pick. He had just 3.1 YPC, which was sadly his best of the season, and he has only one catch each game too — and this after two rare games the Rams led the whole way. Sell if you can still get first round value. If you’re desperate for a WR, you can try Tavon Austin. He’s top 20 in the NFL in targets plus has 15 more touches out of the backfield and returning kicks. He’s not doing a lot with them but he’s a wildcard play if you’re short.

I’ve been telling you to sell on Tampa guys for a few weeks now, and you just got a new window. Next three weeks for Tampa? Denver, Carolina, and then a bye. Ouch. Jameis Winston won’t hit 58 passes or 400 yards in those games. He was drafted as your backup, so sell for another part you need. You might have a slight sell high in Mike Evans. He is 2nd in the league in targets and getting plenty of RZ looks but he has a TD every game, usually very late, and he won’t be quite this valuable. Ditto on Charles Sims, who had 124 yards and a TD plus six catches. Be careful here. Tampa might be this year’s Jaguars, the team that piles up fantasy stats in garbage time losses.

Seattle 37, San Francisco 18

Go get yourself Christine Michael. He’s a rare buy high, coming off a monster 160 yards two TDs game. Rawls is now out a few weeks and Wilson is banged up, so Michael might finally be breaking through. He’s got 10 RZ carries already, No. 8 in the league, and he could be the new Marshawn Lynch and a top-10 back. If an owner is looking to sell high, don’t be afraid to buy. And Russell Wilson is the rare sell low. His injury is a concern, especially if it means missing more second half time with a big lead, and it’s limiting his running value too. You can also cut preseason darling Tyler Lockett as needed, and Jimmy Graham should be on your radar but is not a must-start til we see more. You want Seattle runners right now.

Speaking of teams you want only the RB for: San Francisco! Carlos Hyde is the only 49er worth owning, and he’s a tough one. He still carries risk of injury and has been very TD-reliant and garbage time heavy, and SF is going to trail a lot. But he’s also getting 19 carries a game, a huge load, and he leads the league in red zone attempts with 17. He’s a top 10 RB, just know you’re going to get some 25-point weeks and some five-point ones.

Kansas City 24, NY Jets 3

You can cut Charcandrick West now as Spencer Ware has pushed him aside. It’s definitely time to buy Jeremy Maclin and Jamaal Charles. KC plays this Sunday night in Pittsburgh before a bye week… but then has OAK NO IND JAX right after. Charles probably won’t play til after the bye but could explode after, and Maclin is a nice buy low if you need a safe reliable WR.

It’s definitely time to buy Jeremy Maclin and Jamaal Charles.

You’re going to get some of these Jets games. Studs like Matt Forte and Brandon Marshall are still fine and seeing plenty of looks, but the Jets schedule doesn’t get any better with SEA, PIT and ARI up next. Ouch. You’re just going to have to wait this one out and know there’s better things to come.

Indianapolis 26, San Diego 22

I’m still not entirely sold on Andrew Luck, who needed a late bomb to save another suspect fantasy day. He was at 250 yards and no TDs before that. I’d rather have almost any other “stud QB” now if you can get someone like Rodgers or Brady, though the schedule softens a bit now. Frank Gore and TY Hilton are nice guys to hold steady on. Gore’s a fine RB2 and Hilton is third in the NFL in targets and should be a strong WR2 with Donte Moncrief out. You should hang onto Philip Dorsett, who had a tough match-up with Jason Verrett but could still have nice value soon. Be careful here; Indy does not look good and there are some big misses on the horizon.

If you’re looking for short term help, try a Charger. They’ve got the Saints and Raiders next, so throw Phillip Rivers into your lineup for a few weeks and definitely consider Benjamin and Tyrell Williams as solid plays. And hang onto Melvin Gordon if you’ve got him. He had another rushing TD and now he’s getting targets too with seven this week as the Chargers just have nowhere else to turn. You’ve lucked into a top 10 RB option by default. Ride the wave.

Philadelphia 34, Pittsburgh 3

The Eagles are one of two teams on a bye this week — that always presents definite buy low opportunities. I still like Jordan Matthews even (especially) after an off week. Leave Carson Wentz on your waivers for fantasy purposes. And actually, you might try to buy Ryan Mathews. I said to sell him a week ago, and you’re happy if you did with just two touches this week. But three other Philly RBs combined for 31 touches, 245 yards and a TD apiece. The Doug Pederson system is working and Philly RBs are producing. Mathews is No. 6 in the NFL in red zone carries in basically two games. Some Philly RB is going to be valuable, so get Mathews cheap or consider stashing Wendell Smallwood if you have room.

I’m not sure what happened to your Steelers here either. You had a great run with DeAngelo Williams and can’t complain about two great weeks even with this dud. You might be tempted to sell with Le’Veon Bell coming back, but you may as well keep him now in case of an injury. He’s even a buy low — the upside is just so high if you can afford to stash him. Meanwhile, go buy Bell and Antonio Brown. Brown had a monster 18 targets so the price will be high but he’s worth it. There’s almost nothing in the league I wouldn’t give up for one of these two guys.

Dallas 31, Chicago 17

I keep telling you to buy Cowboys and we’re still there. Ezekiel Elliott looks awesome slashing through the defense out there but might still be frustrating owners as he lost short TDs to Dak Prescott and Alfred Morris and Lance Dunbar this week. If he ever adds those TDs — and they’re coming — he’ll be a superstar. Dez Bryant is still a bit inconsistent but got a TD and looks good. Cole Beasley has worked his way into the PPR conversation, top 20 in the NFL in targets and averaging seven catches and 65 yards a week.

This week’s biggest free agent target is Bears rookie RB Jordan Howard. Howard looked terrific with 92 yards on 13 touches and is involved in the passing game too with six targets. Langford has been poor and is now out a month, and Howard gets DET IND JAX next. He may not give the job back and could end up a strong RB2 or better if he gets enough touches. I’m still out on Kevin White though. Even with 14 targets this week, there wasn’t much there. White is looking a lot like Cobb, lots of short routes and not enough receptions to matter in fantasy.

SELL SELL SELL your Atlanta Falcons. Get rid of them.

Atlanta 45, New Orleans 32

SELL SELL SELL your Atlanta Falcons. Get rid of them. After a cakewalk schedule, the Dirty Birds have Carolina, Denver and Seattle up next, oy vey! You’ve been waiting for a chance to sell on Devonta Freeman — well 200 yards and a TD should do it. He’s not back, the Saints are just awful. Sell on him and sell high on Matt Ryan too. But hang onto Tevin Coleman unless you get blown away. He had three TDs from inside the 10 and averaged six yards a touch himself, and he’s still the guy I want here long term.

I’m ready to sell on the Saints passing offense too. Drew Brees has been chucking it all over the place but that’s part of why the Saints are 0–3, and it’s going to get worse. In the next eight weeks the Saints face Carolina twice, Seattle, Denver, KC, and San Diego, plus a bye week. Brees is going to have some tough weeks and right now Brandin Cooks, Willie Snead, Michael Thomas, Brandon Coleman, Coby Fleener are all playing target-of-the-week. Each will have a big game here and there but Brees spreads it around and none look too consistent. I’d sell any of them after a big game, so this is a Fleener sell week. Mark Ingram had a better game and is still somewhat of a buy low target, but he still feels like a RB2 with that tough schedule upcoming so don’t overpay.

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