Summary

The article discusses the overhyped predictions of drastic societal changes post-coronavirus, suggesting instead that the future will see a return to familiar patterns with minor adjustments.

Abstract

The article critiques the widespread belief that the COVID-19 pandemic will lead to unprecedented changes in society. Despite the chaos and fear surrounding the pandemic, the author argues that life will revert to its predictable routines, with the poor remaining poor, the rich staying rich, and systems staying broken. The author dismisses the sensationalist headlines and opinions of various "experts" as fever dreams, pointing out that people inherently desire change and this is often reflected in media headlines. The article emphasizes that while many predict a massive shift in societal norms, the reality will likely be an evolution rather than a revolution, with consumer behavior and marketing strategies returning to pre-pandemic patterns during the ensuing recession.

Opinions

The author believes that the predictions of massive societal changes post-coronavirus are exaggerated and driven by aspirations rather than data-driven insights.
The article suggests that people's current behavior, influenced by panic and abnormal circumstances, is not a reliable indicator of future behavior.
The author criticizes the sensationalist media coverage and the tendency of marketeers to dramatize potential changes for better headlines.
Jeff Bezos is cited to support the idea that businesses should focus on stable consumer desires rather than speculative changes.
The author posits that the future will involve a return to traditional behaviors and patterns, with a severe but predictable recession influencing marketing and consumer behavior.
Surveys and opinions on future changes are considered unreliable and indulgent, as they often reflect a desire for drama rather than realistic predictions.
The article concludes that the fundamental structures of society, such as economic disparities and systemic issues, will persist despite the current crisis.

Will This Be The Start Of A Zombie Apocalypse?

Unprecedented times will lead into a very predictable future

Unforseen future? Yeah right. Photo by MohammadHosein Mohebbi on Unsplash

I was quietly reading my imaginary Sunday paper. Reminiscing about the time before the kids were locked-down in the house and we weren’t all trapped in a godforsaken Groundhog Day.

The future looked so bright.

I knew with certainty how my day would begin and how many Irish Coffees I could get away with without slurring my words.

The future was a predictable place. One where nothing gargantuan ever changed. Sales would come at high season. Products would be launched mid-year. And marketing kept on going its own merry way.

Within the space of 100 days, all that changed. Or has it?

If you’re reading the daily headlines, you’ll know we’re in the midst of ‘UNPRECEDENTED TIMES!’.

All around us is chaos. People are dying, the markets are heaving with uncertainty and empires built on the fortunes of unskilled labor are now in their death-throes.

Your granny is predicting huge sweeping changes. The courier has made predictions. Your neighbor, the bull-mastiff owning, wife-beating vigilante has made predictions. The checkout chick with a face-full of PPE is talking about changes. Everybody is predicting huge, sweeping changes.

It must be true. I read it on Twitter. And Instagram. And Facebook. I even saw it on Fox News and they don’t like change.

These are all fever dreams driven by the aspirations of the writers.

Everybody wants change. “X will change forever after corona-virus”.

Take your pick as to what the X stands for. It could be leadership (Forbes), media (Vanity Fair), work (Campaign), universities (Wall Street Journal), sport (New York Times), how we live (Financial Times), globalization (BBC), consumption (AdAge) or the world (Campaign).

Post-corona-virus society will be a massive shift in society norms. That’s all anybody wishes for. You can’t write a good headline that reads ‘WORLD REMAINS UNCHANGED — LIFE PREDICTABLY BORING’. That just isn’t good copy.

Change is in the air.

TV people see a resurgence in traditional TV in the months ahead. Newspaper journalists see a return to the primacy of news media. Creative directors see a re-focus on creativity. People with long commutes and a second home in Beach Head, Anywhere, see the end of office working. Hamsters see new wheels and more sawdust. The list is long, wrong and indulgent.

Surveys are being commissioned asking us all about the future. Every talking head that’s willing to spout an opinion is talking up ‘the change’. Like we’re all diving headfirst into a mid-life crisis. A menopausal moment that’ll belch a cultural upheaval on every level.

Why are we even bothering? Asking consumers how much they agree with a statement like ‘How well a brand responds to this crisis will have a huge impact on my likelihood to buy that brand in the future’ tells us nothing.

People are panicked, locked down, afraid and generally upside down. Their current behavior is understandably aberrant and predictions of future behavior are even more unreliable. As are loaded questions primed with cataclysmic change. Everybody loves drama…especially marketeers.

Everything will change. Forever.

Except it won’t. Not really.

The poor will remain poor. Systems will remain broken. The rich will continue to stay rich. Super yachts will begat super yachts. Trade will revive with relentless thrust. The big wheels will keep on turning.

We’ll all quickly snap back to former heuristical norms. Business will jump-start with a massive charge of corona-sales. There’s stock to be shifted.

We’ll go back to washing our hands for four seconds, not 40. Starbucks will once again be our port of choice to waste time drinking coffee and freeloading. Friday once again will see us making all the wrong choices as we get drunk with the other losers from work.

It’ll be evolution, not revolution.

Marketers would do well to focus on the unchanging consumer and their unchanging desires.

Jeff Bezos said something similar more recently. He complained that most people ask him about what is going to change over the next 10 years. Bezos was far more interested, he explained, in what was not going to change in those 10 years because “you can build a business strategy around things that are stable in time”.

So ignore the hyperbole. These really aren’t unprecedented times. The world really isn’t going through a global upheaval. Instead we will head into a very severe, very predictable recession.

We know about recession and we know what happens to marketing and consumer behavior when they occur.

Ignore every column you read from now and study the past to predict the only slightly different, but certainly highly challenging, future ahead.