Will Russia Launch a Nuclear Attack?

Summary

The article discusses the potential for a Russian nuclear attack in light of Vladimir Putin's decision to place the country's nuclear arsenal on high alert following economic sanctions by the West, with experts weighing in on the likelihood and implications of such an escalation.

Abstract

Since Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the specter of nuclear war has been a concerning possibility, with Vladimir Putin's order to put Russia's nuclear forces on high alert heightening tensions. Patricia Lewis from Chatham House suggests that this move may have created a legal basis for Putin to launch nuclear weapons, although it is seen by some as a strategic use of rhetoric to intimidate the West. While the threat is taken seriously, the prevailing view is that the risk of an actual nuclear conflict remains low due to the principle of mutual assured destruction. However, the unpredictable nature of the situation leaves the potential for escalation an unknown factor. The article also references a simulation that illustrates the catastrophic consequences of a nuclear war with NATO countries, emphasizing the gravity of the situation.

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Watch a simulation of how it could unfold

Ever since Russia invaded Ukraine, there’s been an underlying threat of nuclear war. So how likely is it that Russia will go nuclear?

Soon after invading Russia, Vladimir Putin placed the country’s nuclear arsenal on high alert citing “unfriendly actions in the economic sphere”. He was referring to western economic sanctions and increasing tensions.

On 27 February, he appeared on Russian TV, instructing his defence staff to put nuclear weapons on a “special regime of combat duty”.

Patricia Lewis from Chatham House, an independent policy institute headquartered in London, told the PA news agency:

“What we think has happened is that under peacetime, Russia has checks and balances in place so that they can’t launch nuclear weapons.

“So in order to be able to launch nuclear weapons, President Putin has to change the status from peacetime to combat, hence the phrase he’s ‘put his forces on special mode of combat duty’. I think we would probably call it combat readiness but it’s hard because of different languages and different meanings.”

“What he seems to have done is created the legal platform to be able to launch if he wishes.” (source)

While some commentators call Putin’s actions, a “battle of rhetoric”, no one knows how far the dictator will go. The assurance of mutual destruction is regarded as a strong deterrent, even for a dictator with an appetite for war.

“Of course, he wants to frighten us,” Lewis continued, “And I think Russia has long worked out that the West is far more frightened of Russian nuclear weapons than Russia is frightened of Western nuclear weapons, and I think that’s true.”

However, the overall feeling seems to be that nuclear war is unlikely at the moment. But how this thing will escalate is a complete unknown.

Will Russia Launch a Nuclear Attack?

Watch a simulation of how it could unfold

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