China’s foreign policy

Will China bring peace to Ukraine? An analysis of China’s peace plan

In a position paper, Beijing calls for a ceasefire in Ukraine and a dialogue. While officially promoting peace, China continues to support Russia.

China abstained from voting on a UN resolution for a lasting peace in Ukraine last Thursday, 23 February 2023. The Chinese Foreign Ministry then published its own position paper on a political solution to the war in Ukraine. The document contains twelve demands, many of which repeat China’s well-known and often contradictory positions.

“The sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity of all countries must be effectively upheld,” reads the first point, a principle of Chinese foreign policy. At the same time, however, Beijing also calls to take seriously the “legitimate security interests of all countries.” It is a formulation China uses to support Russia’s argument that it must defend itself against the United States and NATO.

At the first anniversary of the war, Western diplomats express anger at Beijing’s handling of the war over the past twelve months. “The position paper reflects China’s view of the matter, but we already knew that,” EU Ambassador Jorge Toledo said at a media conference with Ukraine’s representative in China, Zhanna Leshchynska. As expected, no aggressor is mentioned in the paper. Nevertheless, this is absurd, since there was a Russian military attack, unprovoked and illegal.

Ukrainian Ambassador Leshchynska reminded that a peace plan has already been proposed by Ukraine: the so-called “peace formula”, which, among other things, demands the complete withdrawal of Russia from Ukrainian territory. At the same time, China’s head of state and party leader Xi Jinping had made several phone calls to Russia’s President Vladimir Putin, but a phone call with Volodymyr Zelensky did not happen, despite Ukraine frequently asking for it.

Was the plan just a facade? It does not make sense to propose a peace plan before talking to each party.

China blames the US and NATO for the war

Even though the country pretends to be neutral, Beijing has never condemned the war of aggression against Ukraine. On the contrary, the state media still repeatedly picks up Russian state propaganda, adopting it word for word. The Chinese Foreign Ministry accuses the USA, NATO, and its member states of having triggered the war.

Even before Beijing addresses the humanitarian crisis unfolding in Ukraine in the twelve-point plan, China’s leadership calls for an end to the “Cold War mentality” in the second point of the peace plan. One country’s security should not be pursued at the expense of others. Bloc confrontation must be avoided, it says. This is an accusation that Beijing has repeatedly leveled against the United States.

According to the Chinese interpretation, it is the forging of alliances by the US not only in Europe but also in Asia that threatens Beijing’s security. Without naming NATO or the US directly, Beijing argues in the paper that a region’s security should not be achieved by strengthening or expanding military blocs.

Indirectly, China also criticizes the West’s arms deliveries to Ukraine. “All parties should support Russia and Ukraine in working in the same direction and ultimately reach a comprehensive ceasefire.” Conflict and war benefit no one, the paper says. “All parties must remain rational, exercise restraint, avoid fanning the flames, and prevent the crisis from deteriorating further or even spiraling out of control.”

But China also issued a warning to Moscow: “Nuclear weapons must not be used and nuclear wars must not be fought.” It also said threats to use nuclear weapons as well as armed attacks on nuclear power plants or other civilian nuclear facilities should be rejected. All parties should also allow grain shipments from Ukraine and support the United Nations in playing a major role in this.

Resolutely, China also calls for an end to sanctions against Russia, “which only create new problems.” “China opposes unilateral sanctions unauthorized by the UN Security Council.” However, China and Russia themselves sit on the UN’s highest body as veto powers.

China’s paper addresses the Global South

The position paper is also seen as an attempt by Beijing to garner support from the Global South. In view of the explosion in energy and food prices over the past year, many people there simply want a quick solution to the war, even if it comes at the expense of Ukraine.

Advocating peace in official statements while in reality continuing to back Russia: this is how one can describe China’s attitude.

Finally, the position paper can only be seen as having a symbolic character — at least, China expresses its views on this conflict for the first time in an official paper. However, the plan cannot achieve much. Beijing lacks international legitimacy to serve as a mediator. Ukraine rejected the plan. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov commented on Monday, 27 February 2023, that “we are looking at the plan of our Chinese friends with great attention,” but that Moscow does not see the preconditions for a “peaceful” solution “at present.”

Accordingly, the plan will not ease the conflict. The war goes on.

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